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  1. 1
    Peer Reviewed

    The inter-relationship among economic activities, environmental degradation, material consumption and population health in low-income countries: a longitudinal ecological study.

    Chuang YC; Huang YL; Hu CY; Chen SC; Tseng KC

    BMJ Open. 2015; 5(7):e006183.

    OBJECTIVES: The theory of ecological unequal exchange explains how trade and various forms of economic activity create the problem of environmental degradation, and lead to the deterioration of population health. Based on this theory, our study examined the inter-relationship among economic characteristics, ecological footprints, CO2 emissions, infant mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates in low-income countries. DESIGN: A longitudinal ecological study design. SETTING: Sixty-six low-income countries from 1980 to 2010 were included in the analyses. Data for each country represented an average of 23 years (N=1497). DATA SOURCES: Data were from the World Development Indicators, UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database, Global Footprint Network and Polity IV Project. ANALYSES: Linear mixed models with a spatial power covariance structure and a correlation that decreased over time were constructed to accommodate the repeated measures. Statistical analyses were conducted separately by sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and other regions. RESULTS: After controlling for country-level sociodemographic characteristics, debt and manufacturing, economic activities were positively associated with infant mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, export intensity and foreign investment were beneficial for reducing infant and under-5 mortality rates in Latin America and other regions. Although the ecological footprints and CO2 emissions did not mediate the relationship between economic characteristics and health outcomes, export intensity increased CO2 emissions, but reduced the ecological footprints in sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, although export intensity was positively associated with the ecological footprints and also CO2 emissions, the percentage of exports to high-income countries was negatively associated with the ecological footprints. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested that environmental protection and economic development are important for reducing infant and under-5 mortality rates in low-income countries. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to
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  2. 2

    Smoothing primary exporters' price risks: bonds, futures, options and insurance.

    Kletzer KM; Newbery DM; Wright BD

    New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Oct. 52 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 647)

    The costs of primary commodity price instability are reviewed, and can be significant. Even with full commitment on both sides and stationarity of prices, international lending leads to nonstationary consumption. One-period futures improve smoothing, and a rollover plan is quite effective under first-order serial correlation. With sovereign (exporter) risk the above instruments are infeasible. But packages of simple bonds and put options can achieve smoothing qualitatively similar to, but less efficient than, the constrained optimal state-contingent contracts for Markovian price processes. Bonds and options have the practical advantage of greater potential liquidity than more complex contracts. (author's)
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  3. 3

    Transitional dynamics in two-sector models of endogenous growth.

    Mulligan CB; Sala-i-Martin X

    New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1992 Jan. 59 p (Center Discussion Paper No. 651)

    The steady state and transitional dynamics of two-sector models of endogenous growth are analyzed in this paper. We describe necessary conditions for endogenous growth. The conditions allow us to reduce the dynamics of the solution to a system with one state-like and two control-like variables. We analyze the determinants of the long run growth rate. We use the Time-Elimination Method to analyze the transitional dynamics of the models. We find that there are transitions in real time if the point-in-time production possibility frontier is strictly concave, which occurs, for example, if the two production functions are different or if there are decreasing point-in-time returns in any of the sectors. We also show that if the models have a transition in real time, the models are globally saddle path stable. We find that the wealth or consumption smoothing effect tends to dominate the substitution or real wage effect so that the transition from relatively low levels of physical capital is carried over through high work effort rather than high savings. We develop some empirical implications. We show that the models predict conditional convergence in that, in a cross section, the growth rate is predicted to be negatively related to initial income but only after some measure of human capital is held constant. Thus, the models are consistent with existing empirical cross country evidence. (author's)
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  4. 4

    Public finance in models of economic growth.

    Barro RJ; Sala-i-Martin X

    New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Jul. 33 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 640)

    The recent literature on endogenous economic growth allows for effects of fiscal policy on long-term growth. If the social rate of return on investment exceeds the private return, then tax policies that encourage investment can raise the growth rate and levels of utility. An excess of the social return over the private return can reflect learning-by-doing with spillover effects, the financing of government consumption purchases with an income tax, and monopoly pricing of new types of capital goods. Tax incentives for investment are not called for if the private rate of return on investment equals the social return. This situation applies in growth models if the accumulation of a broad concept of capital does not entail diminishing returns, or if technological progress appears as an expanding variety of consumer products. In growth models that incorporate public services, the optimal tax policy hinges on the characteristics of the services. If the public services are publicly-provided private goods, which are rival and excludable, or publicly-provided public goods, which are non-rival and non- excludable, the lump-sum taxation is superior to income taxation. Many types of public goods are subject to congestion, and are therefore rival but to some extent non-excludable. In these cases, income taxation works approximately as a user fee and can therefore be superior to lump-sum taxation. In particular, the incentives for investment and growth are too high if taxes are lump sum. We argue that the congestion model applies to a wide array of public expenditures, including transportation facilities, public utilities, courts, and possibly national defense and police. (author's)
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  5. 5

    Survey of economic and social conditions in Africa, 1991-1992.

    United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa

    Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, United Nations, 1994. xvi, 139, 63 p. (E/ECA/SERP/94/1)

    This 1991-92 survey report summarizes economic conditions in Africa. This report differs from the 1990-91 survey report in that it uses 1990 as the base year for constant prices. The topical structure of the survey has remained the same, with the exception of a new chapter on the construction industry. Chapter topics include an overview of the global economy in 1992, the economy of Africa in 1992, fiscal and price developments, external debt and new structural adjustment programs (SAPs), foreign trade, agriculture and forestry and fisheries, petroleum and natural gas, mining, manufacturing, construction, transportation and telecommunications and tourism, and a review of selected social issues. The economy of Africa is stagnating and in crisis. During the 1980s there was not a single African country that successfully industrialized or started to industrialize. The gross domestic product per capita in the region was lower than other regions, and the African share of the global economy and world trade declined. Even African commodities that were almost monopolies declined. The African economy grew by an average of 2% annually during 1980-90 and an estimated 1.3% in 1992. The African region has suffered from the effects of the Gulf War, drought in Southern Africa, and civil wars and conflicts in many countries. The growth rate of the world economy was 1.4% in 1992 and 2.0% in 1994. The growth rate of developing economies was 6.1% in 1992 and 5.7% in 1993. The growth rate in Africa was 2.0% in 1992 and 2.3% in 1993. The extent of outstanding debt in developing countries continued to rise. The African share of developing country debt was $292 billion out of $1478 billion in 1991. Economic conditions in Africa deteriorated sharply in 1992. The prospects for 1993 were not even for modest growth. The crisis in the social sector continued without stop into the 1990s. Women and children are the most seriously affected.
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  6. 6

    Fertility and economic growth.

    Zhang J

    Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1993. viii, 117 p.

    The author models fertility and economic growth simultaneously in overlapping generations frameworks. The first chapter focuses upon the relationship between fertility and wage rates, examining the effects on fertility and growth of subsidies for education and for the cost of rearing children by assuming that agents care about the consumption and number of children. Chapter two compares fertility and economic growth between economies with or without markets and firms by assuming that agents are concerned about the consumption of their old parents and/or the consumption and the number of their children. It is shown that transforming a traditional economy into a market economy brings about lower fertility but faster growth of per capita output if altruism is one-sided towards parents. Chapter three then investigates the effects of social security upon fertility and economic growth. It is shown that an unfunded social security program may speed up economic growth by reducing fertility and increasing the ratio of human capital investment per child to family income even if saving rates fall, and may bring about faster economic growth than a funded program. Even if fertility is exogenous and private intergenerational transfers are operative, the neutrality of unfunded social security fails to hold due to human capital investment in children, although the saving rate is unchanged.
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  7. 7

    World development report 1993. Investing in health.

    World Bank

    New York, New York, Oxford University Press, 1993. xii, 329 p.

    The World Bank's 16th annual World Development Report focuses on the interrelationship between human health, health policy, and economic development. WHO provided much of the data on health and helped the World Bank on the assessment of the global burden of disease found in appendix B. Following an overview, the report has 7 chapters covering health in developing countries: successes and challenges; households and health; the roles of the government and the market in health; public health; clinical services; health inputs; and an agenda for action. Appendix a lists and discusses population and health data. The report concludes with the World Development Indicators for 127 low, lower middle, upper middle, and high income countries in tabular form. All developed and developing countries have experienced considerable improvements in health. But developing countries, particularly their poor, still experience many diseases, many of which can be prevented or cured. They are starting to encounter the problems of increasing health system costs already experienced by developed countries. The World Bank proposes a 3-part approach to government policies for improving health in developing countries. Governments must promote an economic growth that empowers households to improve their own health. Growth policies must secure increased income for the poor and expand investment in education, particularly for girls. Government spending on health must address cost effective programs that help the poor, such as control and treatment of infectious diseases and of malnutrition. Governments must encourage greater diversity and competition in the financing and delivery of health services. Donors can finance transitional costs of change in low income countries.
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  8. 8

    The consequences of adult ill-health.

    Over M; Ellis RP; Huber JH; Solon O

    In: The health of adults in the developing world, edited by Richard G.A. Feachem, Tord Kjellstrom, Christopher J.L. Murray, Mead Over, Margaret A. Phillips. New York, New York, Oxford University Press, 1992. 161-207.

    The consequences of adult ill-health are greater than previously believed. These consequences go beyond suffering and grief and consist of indirect adverse effects on society which increase the cost of adult ill-health in developing countries. At the household level, family and friends try to reduce the effects of an illness or injury afflicting an adult household member. Work colleagues increase their workload to pick up the slack of the ill or injured colleague. An unhealthy labor force results in slow work schedules and less specialization of employee job descriptions. These coping processes reduce the effects of illness, but are costly. Yet traditional empirical studies do not examine them. Anticipatory coping mechanisms to mitigate adverse consequences of adult ill-health include formal and nonformal insurance mechanisms, both of which bear high costs. Informal insurance mechanisms include high fertility and extended families and social networks. Formal mechanisms are investment and savings and formal health insurance. Further, adult ill-health harms children more than child ill-health harms adults. thus, the total ill-health burden of children is greater than originally surmised. Household costs of adult ill-health are effect on production and earnings, on investment and consumption, and on household health and consumption and psychic costs. At least 70% of hospital resources in developing countries goes to adult and elderly patients. A considerable proportion of primary care costs is also dedicated to adults. Even though researchers agree that disease affects income, this effect is preceded and overshadowed by the effect of disease on health status, of health status on functional capacity, and of functional capacity on productivity. In conclusion, adult ill-health restricts development in societies burdened by adult ill-health.
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  9. 9

    Third World development: perspectives.

    Venkataramanan LS

    In: Strategies for Third World development, edited by John S. Augustine. New Delhi, India, Sage Publications, 1989. 16-33.

    In spite of the many differences in developing countries, all promote policies aimed at improving resource allocations, increasing the value of public and private corporations, preparing domestic savings, locating access for market exports, and supporting investment activities. Poverty and unemployment are indigenous to rural areas in developing countries. Planners' and policymakers' objectives are to promote policies for growth, arrange exports and imports, deal with the interdependence and economic dependence in trade relations, to develop agricultural policies, alleviate poverty and unemployment, and to provide food security. Each task is discussed, e.g., growth policies must balance an appropriate mix of stabilization and structural adjustment. Growth can be accomplished through increased domestic savings, an appropriate rate of monetary growth, a stable exchange rate, and reduced budget deficits. Efficiency of investment can be increased with encouraging private domestic and foreign investment and reducing administrative controls and tax system distortions. Military spending reductions and increased investment in irrigation, drainage, and extension of public services and agricultural support make better use of public savings. Optimizing use of scarce resources of capital and foreign exchange contribute to social and economic improvement. Insulation from the fluctuations in growth trends in other countries reduces vulnerability. Self-reliance is promoted. In coping with inequalities in income distribution, poverty, and unemployment, developing counties have focused on growth in gross national product (GNP). Production and investment need to be reorganized in order to have a wider effect on income distribution and achieve social justice. Employment must be increased for neutral personal tax-subsidy schemes to work. Production planning targeted to the rural poor and geared to consumption planning can help to alleviate hunger and poverty. In balancing production, consumption, and employment, it is important to consider that increasing the level of employment beyond free market equilibrium requires a certain level of subsidy, and increasing the level of distributive consumption may led to lower investment for future growth and employment.
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  10. 10

    Land use and management in PR China: problems and strategies.

    Cai Y

    LAND USE POLICY. 1990 Oct; 7(4):337-50.

    The conflict between population and land in China results from high population density, declining availability of arable land, decrease in cropland, overgrazing, inability to afford imported grain, and expansion of land use for urbanization. Unwise decisions have been made. These decisions have resulted in land degradation, soil erosion, deforestation, degradation of grasslands, waste of land for freight storage or waste disposal due to low grain prices, and nonagricultural constructions on croplands. Ineffective land management problems are identified as: 1) the lack of an economic means of guiding land use and land is not valued; the lack of any mechanism to ensure economic land use including public lands which are not accounted for with rent; 2) the lack of integration of departments into the decision making structure and too many departments making decisions about the same land; 3) the lack of choice in land use which results in higher government departments being unaware of local conditions, and the lack of appropriate investment which results in short-term exploitation; and 4) surveys are inadequate for decision making. The strategies suggested for improvement in land use management include low resources expenditure in production and appropriate goods consumption. The goal is to sustain subsistence with gradual improvement through development. Land resources must be conserved and the environment protected. The solutions to depend on food imports or reduce the nutritional level deny the equally plausible solution to generate a higher level of input. The profit motive and scientific agricultural practices could accomplish this end. Reclamation for cropland is possible for 8 million hectares of wasteland in wide areas in Sanjiang Plain and 3.4 million hectares in small pockets in Eastern Monsoon China. Traditional agriculture must be transformed and an optimum scale of land operation established. Land tenure reform is necessary. Regional conditions must prevail as the guiding principles. Several implementation strategies are suggested: controlling population growth and establishing a balance between expenditure and land productivity, expanding and conserving forest areas, increasing agricultural investment, reforming land tenure, adjusting land product prices, strengthening land administration, developing other industries, and reforming economic and political systems.
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  11. 11

    Effects of the changing U.S. age distribution on macroeconomic equations.

    Fair RC; Dominguez KM

    AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. 1991 Dec; 81(5):1,276-94.

    The effects of the changing U.S. age distribution on various macroeconomic equations are examined in this paper. The equations include consumption, housing-investment, money-demand, and labor-force-participation equations. There seems to be enough variance in the age-distribution data to allow reasonably precise estimates of the effects of the age distribution on the macro variables. (EXCERPT)
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  12. 12

    Population growth and its implications.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Secretariat

    In: Population policies and programmes: current status and future directions, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 17-26. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 84; ST/ESCAP/563)

    Concentrating upon the Asian and Pacific region, this paper considers the consequences of rapid population growth. Already the world's most densely populated area, 1987 population projections predict the region to account for 56% of the world's 5 billion inhabitants. While annual growth rates for the region are expected to decline for the period 1985-2000, absolute population increase will, nonetheless, be greater than during the previous 15-year period, contributing 53% to overall world population growth. Future fertility declines are not expected to be as marked as observed during the previous decade. Changing age structure combined with the size and proportion of the population of women of child-bearing age will contribute to an impending baby boom. National family planning programs need to be expanded and strengthened to combat such future trends. Planning for production, consumption, investment, and distribution should also reflect age structure dynamics. Life expectancy at birth remains below levels representative of more developed regions, suggesting room for further strides against mortality-related conditions in the region. Industrialization and modernization should, however, play roles in changing mortality patterns. A lack of reliable data is recognized, as is concern over demographic aging soon to be faced by many countries of the region.
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  13. 13

    A flexible programming model to study problems of population economics.

    van Praag BM; Pradhan MP

    In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany, Springer-Verlag, 1989. 306-24. (Studies in Contemporary Economics)

    In this paper, a normative model is constructed in order to calculate optimal growth patterns for economies with arbitrary population development, social welfare functions, production functions, and social security systems. It turns out that in almost all cases an optimal growth pattern is not synonymous with full employment, except in the classic case of exponential population growth. (author's)
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  14. 14

    Interaction between macro-economic activities and demographic changes in selected developing countries.

    Bhattacharyya D

    In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany, Springer-Verlag, 1989. 233-50. (Studies in Contemporary Economics)

    A dynamic macro-economic model is specified assuming that the Government minimizes a loss function and uses government expenditures and money supply as instruments for control. Through this model, the author examines Malthusian theory as well as Simon and Steinmann's theory of population growth and technical progress. (author's)
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  15. 15

    Equilibrium and efficiency in intergenerational transfers.

    Ben-Zion U; Gradstein M

    In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany, Springer-Verlag, 1989. 152-65. (Studies in Contemporary Economics)

    The focus of this study concerns a family consisting of 2 altruistic agents, the parent and the child. The model is cast within a 2-period framework where, in the 1st period, the parent decides on the allocation of his resources between consumption and investment in the human capital of his child, and, in the 2nd period, the child has to decide how much of his (acquired through the parent's transfer) wealth to give away for the support of his parent. The 1st result establishes that the outcome of the game of transfer is inefficient; the possible means of attaining efficiency are investigated. Finally, the impact of uncertainty regarding a child's preferences on the game equilibrium are analyzed.
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  16. 16

    The consequences of temporary emigration and remittance expenditure from rural and urban settlements: evidence from Jordan.

    Seccombe IJ; Findlay AM

    In: The impact of international migration on developing countries, edited by Reginald Appleyard. Paris, France, OECD Publications, 1989. 109-25. (Development Centre Seminars)

    This paper investigates the characteristics of temporary emigration for employment and the nature of remittance expenditure within 1 country of labor emigration to the Arab world, Jordan. It compares 2 independent household expenditure surveys conducted at opposite ends of the settlement continuum, 1 in the village of Sammu' (31 households in 1985) in northwest Jordan and the other in Marka (40 households in 1984), a suburb of the capital Amman. The results of the 2 surveys reinforce the argument that international migration is associated with non-productive investment of remittances in consumer goods and in the construction sector. In an economy such as Jordan's, this pattern of remittance expenditure encourages very marked geographical changes in both villages and large urban settlements, but the morphological and functional changes that occur vary in significance according to urban hierarchy. The common link in all scales of settlement is that emerging patterns are determined by consumer rather than by producer behavior, resulting in patterns of settlement change that are distinctly different from those found in settlement systems whose dynamics are governed by local patterns of production.
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  17. 17

    World tables, 1988-89 edition: from the data files of the World Bank.

    World Bank

    Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989. [iii], 653 p.

    This edition of WORLD TABLES updates the core socioeconomic indicators used by the World Bank and given in the 1987 edition; it adds topical pages and a related explanatory text. It disseminates, with little delay, country estimates used by the Bank in its dialogue about economic and social trends in developing countries, which emphasizes Bank borrowers. Data for industrial market economies are based on reports of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund. National publications are used for the remaining Bank members. Country time series are also used by the Bank to measure trends in groups of countries. The topical pages cover gross national product per capita, gross national income per capita, private consumption per capita, gross domestic investment per capita, gross national income, gross domestic product (GDP), agriculture's contribution to GDP, industry's contribution to GDP, services' contribution to GDP, total consumption's contribution to GDP, gross domestic investment, gross domestic savings, private consumption, balance of payments, value of merchandise imports, growth of merchandise imports, value of merchandise exports, and growth of merchandise exports.
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  18. 18

    Interaction between macro-economic activities and demographic changes in selected developing countries.

    Bhattacharyya D

    Leicester, England, University of Leicester, Department of Economics, 1987 Oct. 26 p. (Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 66)

    The author analyzes the relationship between population and economic development in developing countries using a macro-level model and short-term time-series data. The variables considered are consumption expenditure, investment expenditure, national income, and population; the countries examined are India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic, with the United Kingdom as a control. The time period covered is 1964-1980. The results show little support for Malthusian theory and only partial support for alternative theories asserting that population growth is associated with technological progress.
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  19. 19

    Human capital and the rise and fall of families.

    Becker GS; Tomes N

    JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS. 1986 Jul; 4(3, Pt. 2):1-47.

    This paper develops a model of the transmission of earnings, assets, and consumption from parents to descendants. The model assumes utility-maximizing parents who are concerned about the welfare of their children. The degree of intergenerational mobility is determined by the interaction of this utility-maximizing behavior with investment and consumption opportunities in different generations and with different kinds of luck. We examine a number of empirical studies for different countries. Regression to the mean in earnings in rich countries appears to be rapid. Almost all the earnings advantages or disadvantages of ancestors are wiped out in three generations. A comment by Robert J. Willis is included (pp. 40-7). (EXCERPT)
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  20. 20

    The economic impact of return migration in central Portugal.

    Lewis J; Williams A

    In: Return migration and regional economic problems, edited by Russell King. London, England, Croom Helm, 1986. 100-28.

    This paper analyzes the economic behavior of returned emigrants from Europe (regressados), refugees from the ex-colonies (retornados), and nonmigrants in contrasting regions of central Portugal. Due to the overwhelming importance of migration to its economy, Portugal offers an excellent opportunity to assess both the behavior of different types of migrants and the effects of their behavior in regions with marked variations in economic development. Both international emigration and regional inequality are long-standing features of the Portugese economy; they act as mutually reinforcing trends. The lack of opportunity in the poorer regions means that emigration offers one of the few opportunities for advancement, but its beneficial effects for households are not dispersed widely enough to present sufficient opportunities for the next generation. The economic instincts of returnees are to follow the lead of nonmigrants in a given community and not to swim against the tide. More innovative returnees have the option of migrating to one of the more dynamic environments in the region. The type of emigration that has been undertaken influences subsequent behavior, although similarities in economic behavior exist between retornados, regressados, and non-emigrants. A closer specification of these similarities will help to reduce the expectations placed on returnees to areas with poor economic prospects. Regressados return to their villages to retire or to run small farms; others prefer to invest in industrial firms only where there is an expanding market. Well-intentioned policies to harness the economic potential of returnees in developing poor regions will not work any better in the future than they have worked in the past.
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  21. 21

    Gastarbeiter go home: return migration and economic change in the Italian Mezzogiorno.

    King R; Strachan A; Mortimer J

    In: Return migration and regional economic problems, edited by Russell King. London, England, Croom Helm, 1986. 38-68.

    Most migrants return home not because of redundancy in the host country but because of a more complex mix of personal, family, emotional, and economic reasons, which conditions the impact that returnees have on their regions. This paper examines the economic impact of return migration on southern Italy, especially employment and the use of savings and remittances. 705 interviews in 486 households (including 197 wives and 22 working-age children) comprised the sample. Study results generally confirm the more pessimistic evaluations of other work in the backward and environmentally deprived areas of southern Italy. Migration and return have not generally had positive long-term economic effects on southern Italy. At the individual level, however, migration appears to be a successful and valued experience in financial terms. Emigration is not desirable in itself but as a means to an end--an improved standard of living, possessions, social status, and the satisfaction these bring. Emigration does not generally lead to better job prospects on return. "Sacrifice" and "duty to one's family" were recurrent themes in the interviews; only 6.7% of the returnees were planning to go abroad again. Acquired skills and accumulated capital do flow in with the returnees, but these inputs are not used to their full potential, partly due to the uncoordinated, individualistic, and familistic behavior of returnees and partly due to the lack of a government framework to make use of funds.
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  22. 22

    International migration, remittances and economic welfare in the source country.

    Rivera-Batiz FL

    JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES. 1986; 13(3):3-19.

    This article provides a formal framework for the analysis of the impact of international migration in the presence of remittances. The discussion differentiates between temporary and permanent migration and between the effects of remittances that raise investment and those that raise consumption spending in the source country. Changes in prices, income distribution and national welfare are examined. The geographic focus is worldwide. (EXCERPT)
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  23. 23

    Appropriate demographic-economic models for development planning in developing countries.

    Demery D

    [Unpublished] [1984]. Paper presented at the First Study Director's Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationship for Selected ESCAP Countries, 29 October-2 November 1984, Bangkok, Thailand. 17 p.

    The author examines in detail the criteria for selecting an economic-demographic model for use in a particular situation. 2 general principles of model selection are that 1) the model must provide insights that are not obtainable by analytical methods and 2) models should avoid unnecessary detail. The author prefers models that are 1) single rather than multi-sectoral, 2) "general equilibrium" rather than specific in focus, 3) either long or medium term in time span but not both, and 4) Social Accounting Matrix-oriented for their output. Model closure is the central issue of model selection. The choice of closure profoundly affects the main focus of model output as shown by 4 examples: 1) the neoclassical closure of forced investment, 2) the Kaldorian closure of forced profits, 3) the Johansen closure of forced consumption, and 4) the Keynesian closure of forced unemployment. The examples of closure types illustrate that the choice of closure directly affects the result--income distribution in the example given. Existing economic-demographic models often neglect 1) the linkage between technological and demographic change, 2) population effects on aggregate savings behavior, and 3) links between family size and labor force participation rates by sex.
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  24. 24

    Declining population growth revisited.

    Spengler JJ

    Westport, Conn., Greenwood Press, 1980. 59 p.

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  25. 25

    World tables, the second edition (1980), from the data files of the World Bank.

    World Bank

    Baltimore, Md., Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. 474 p.

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