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Population and Development Review. 2007; 33(2):247-287.The goal of this article is to examine the determinants of the improvements in life expectancy in the developing world during the period after World War II. Recent estimates suggest that longevity has been a quantitatively vital component of the overall gains in welfare during the twentieth century, both within and across countries. From a research perspective, pinning down the factors determining the observed reductions in mortality may shed light on the interactions between health, human capital, and income, and on their relative importance for economic development and social change. From a policy perspective, it may help maximize the impact of future health interventions in countries that still lag behind in health improvements. In particular, this knowledge may be fundamental in designing policies to enable sub-Saharan Africa to recover from its present circumstances. (excerpt)
Guildford, England, Butterworths, 1989. 54 p.This report examines the trends of demographic ageing in Europe up to 2025. By that date one European in four could be aged 65 or over. With trends continuing towards the contraction of working life, severe imbalances may occur in individual life cycles, in the structure of the workforce, and in socioeconomic provision for an ageing population. The report further considers the potential impacts of these emerging imbalances on living conditions, consumption patterns, and socio-medical/health care provision for the old. Finally, a range of responses are outlined to the challenges of possible intergenerational conflict surrounding the nexus of issues related to demographic ageing.
Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1987. 10 p. (Population Research Leads No. 25)The Asian and Pacific region's decline in fertility and mortality over the past 2 decades has resulted in large shifts in the age composition of national populations, which affects planning in nearly every social and economic sector. For the region as a whole, the crude birthrate is estimated to have remained at 40/1000 population until about 1970, declining to 27/1000 in the 1980-85 period. This rapid decline in fertility has complicated population policy formulation and the integration of population factors into development planning. The demonstration that government programs could alter demographic trends meant that population no longer could be treated simply as an exogenous variable in development planning. The combination of previously high fertility and declining mortality, which particularly affected the survival rates of infants and children, resulted in a small increase in the proportion of the population of the region below age 15, from 37% in 1950 to 41% in 1970. By 1985, the latter proportion dropped to 35% because of declining fertility. Due to the previously high fertility and more recent declines, the proportion of the population in working-age groups increased from 56% in 1975 to 61% in 1985 and is projected to reach 65% by 2000. Providing employment for this rapidly increasing population of labor-force age is a major challenge for countries of the region over the next several decades. For those few countries in the Asian and Pacific regions who had low birth and death rates by 1960, the current issue is demographic aging. As the rate of population growth per se decreases in importance as a planning goal, other aspects of population, such as spatial distribution, take on more significance. The rising marriage age and organized family planning programs were the primary causes of fertility decline in the region, although the decline was limited in South Asia where large pockets of high fertility (a total fertility rate in the range of 5-7) remain. The contribution of rising marriage age to further fertility decline is approaching the limit, except in the countries of South Asia where the marriage age continues to be below 20 years. In most of the countries of the region, the potential also exists for a 2nd generation "baby boom" resulting from a changing age structure. This would in turn slow down the pace of fertility decline unless compensated by a rapid fall in fertility of younger married women caused by successful implementation of family planning programs and other associated socioeconomic changes. Aside from the straightforward implications of demographic change, changes in age structure also imply changes in consumption patterns. Thus, planning for production, consumption, investment, and distribution always should incorporate changes in age structure.
["Zero growth" of population and its consequences for the West] Nulevoi rost naseleniya i ego posledstviya dlya stran Zapada
Memo: Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya. 1985; (8):41-54, 159.The consequences of the decline in fertility in Western Europe and Northern America are analyzed. The author first describes current demographic trends and suggests that the trend toward population decline is probably irreversible. Consideration is given to determinants of fertility such as industrialization, urbanization, women's economic activity, educational standards, health services, social security, demographic policy, and income. Factors affecting Western fertility are identified as inflation, unemployment, and spiritual impoverishment. The existence of various schools of thought in Western countries concerning the implications of these trends is noted. These include the fear of the environmental impact of further population growth and the fear of the consequences of population decline. The author concludes that a period of stable population growth will mean a decline in the available labor force, an increase in the age of the labor force, an increase in the number of pensioners, a change in the structure of demand, and other problems for capitalist societies. (summary in ENG)
Bogota, Colombia, DANE, 1984 Dec. 580 p.This volume contains recent and earlier statistics on a variety of social and economic topics in Colombia. The work opens with a description in Spanish and English of general background on the geography, population, economy, and government and administrative structure of Colombia, followed by geographic and economic profiles of each of the country's 23 departments, 4 intendencies, and 5 commisaries. Chapter 3, on demography, provides population figures from censuses dating back to 1770; age and sex distributions from the 1951, 1964, and 1973 censuses; results of studies of the population resident in private housing; data on birth registration between 1976-82; and discussion of various aspects of the demography of Latin America. The following chapters consider educational status, illiteracy, and educational needs and facilities at the primary, secondary, and higher level; labor force participation rates by sex and geographic areas and unemployment; results of the National Food, Nutrition, and Housing Survey of 1981; health resources and services; the civil and criminal justice systems; and information on elections and returns for various elections. The remaining 14 chapters provide data on significant areas of economic activity, including agriculture and animal husbandry, manufacturing and industry, construction and housing, prices, salaries and income, public finance, national accounts, mining and energy, social organization including cooperatives and community action groups, transportation, external commerce, internal commerce, tourism, and communications.
[Unpublished] 1985. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston, Massachusetts, March 28-30, 1985. Also published in: Economic Development and Cultural Change 34(4):755-82. 1986 Jul. 26,  p.Mortality is assumed to be strongly reduced by medical care, however, the effects of medical services on health are often underestimated because some of the same factors which lead to an increased demand for primary health care (PHC) services are also associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Consequently, understanding the determinants of the demand for medical services is important for evaluating health outcomes. This paper estimates the parameters of a simple model of the demand for health services using data from the Bicol Multipurpose Survey data from the Philippines. The parameters of the demand for key components of PHC--outpatient, prenatal, delivery, well-child, and infant immunizations--are estimated. Findings suggest that the quality of the care may be very important, but that economic factors as deterrents to using medical care--inaccessibility, cash costs, and lack of income--may not be of paramount importance. Finally, it is shown that the provision of free services in rural areas may not insure that the services reach the poorest people. (author's modified)