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[Opinions on population development. The recent past and future of the Hungarian population] Korkerdes a nepesedesrol. A Magyar nepesedes kozelmultja es jovoje.
DEMOGRAFIA. 1999; 42(3-4):306-11.Two world wars, the great depression between the wars, dictatorships, the crushing of the revolution in 1956, and subsequent decades all account for the fact that frustrated and disintegrated generations make up Hungarian society, which is starting to reorganize itself very slowly. Nevertheless, the low fertility rate in Hungary is paralleled by developed European countries. The common link in this phenomenon is consumerism. In Mediterranean countries traditional values have lost ground and fertility dropped, while in post-communist countries rising expectations caused by the free flow of information have contributed to the development of a crisis of values. In the majority of the countries of the European Union further reduction in fertility did not take place; in fact, there has been improvement in some cases. In Hungary the economic recession after 1990 was unavoidable, but the continuing declining fertility rate was also attributable to current consumerism and the fiscal austerity policy introduced in 1995. In recent years a slight improvement of mortality can be observed, possibly owing to healthier living and somewhat improved health care. The biggest challenge is the support of an aging population which could be enhanced either by the boosting of fertility or receiving masses of immigrants from high fertility regions. In general, in Europe and in developed countries, narcissistic societies have emerged and in Hungary even the establishment of a civil society is missing.
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. 1999 May; 89(2):251-5.This paper examines how population growth affects the average level of utility, particularly, the consumption per capita. It also focuses on the effects of population growth on the ratio of dependent consumers to working-age adults. The model employed in this paper has three demographic groups: working-age adults, who produce and consume, and the young and elderly, who only consume. This study concluded that the transition to lower population growth requires a long period of reduced dependency in which society benefits from lower spending on children while it has yet to pay for higher old-age dependency. The dependency level after 30 years is not significantly different from that which would exist in an optimal stable population. Any rise in fertility that would decrease old-age dependency in the long run would require a lengthy period of higher-than-steady-state dependency.