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[Unpublished] 1998 Aug.  p.After the 1980’s, the total fertility rate of women in China had noticeable change in the early 90's, that was, TFR reached 2.0 in 1992 and crude birth rate of China continued steadily decreasing , especially in the ten provinces and municipalities like Beijing , Tianjin and Shanghai due to starting family planning program. Shanghai is the first region to conduct family planning program in China. It is the only region which continued conducting family planning program without break since 1960's . The crude birth rate and total fertility rate of Shanghai is the lowest in China over a long period of time. The TFR remained the low level of 1.3 -1.4 in the 80's, which was the lowest level among the known nations and regions in the world. The crude birth rate of the registered population was 0.65 percent in 1993, and crude death rate was 0.728 percent and natural growth rate was - 0.078 percent. This negative natural growth rate of Shanghai's a domiciliary registered population marks the new stage of population dynamics and it is the outcome of the long term participation and painstaking efforts of local government and numerous social workers including family planning workers . The government of Shanghai's municipality paid great attention on population control in the early 1950's. The hard work and quality service provided by the numerous family planning workers promoted directly the transition of child bearing norm and fertility pattern, meanwhile the tremendous social-economic development and urbanization provided good environment for the demographic modernization of Shanghai. The fertility and mortality patterns of registered population of Shanghai was similar to that of western developed countries in the early 80' s. The negative population growth will come sooner or later in other cities like Beijing and Tianjin etc. Therefore the research on the negative population growth of Shanghai and measures taken will provide share to the dynamics of population changes in other cities of China. (excerpt)
Television, value constructs, and reproductive behavior in Brazilian "excluded" communities. [Televisión, construcción de valores y conducta reproductiva en las comunidades "excluidas" de Brasil]
[Unpublished] 2001. Presented at the 24th International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP] Conference, Salvador, Brazil, August 2001.  p.This paper is motivated by the unintended consequences hypothesis, developed by Faria (1988) and Faria and Potter (1990). They argue that the policies implemented by the Brazilian government after the military coup of 1964, combined with fast economic growth in the seventies -- which enhanced the consolidation of a consumer society -- played a major role in the fertility decline in Brazil. The argument is based on the fact that the military regime developed some state policies which did not intend to control population growth or establish a family planning policy. Yet, the main unintended consequence of these policies was a sharp decline in fertility. Four state policies were relevant in this process: telecommunications, consumer credit, “medicalization”, and social security coverage. The first two policies are more important to this paper. The development of a telecommunication policy aimed the country’s geographic integration through satellite signals. This policy was crucial to the geographic diffusion of television in Brazil. The prices charged to the TV networks for the transmission of signals were highly subsidized. The most important commercial television network, Globo, benefited from this process. It became competitive, modern, and a long time leader in audience ratings. Due to this policy, almost all localities in Brazil received TV signals at some point between 1965 and 1990. (excerpt)
FOCUS ON GENDER. 1993 Feb; 1(1):22-3.Inequalities in distribution of wealth, uneven use and distribution of resources, and human settlement patterns contribute more to environmental degradation than does population size. Current global economic strategies and policy decisions affect population and the natural environment. Large-scale technology and communications, the globalization of capital, subordination within world markets, and increasing consumption levels have broken down livelihoods and the environment. Therefore, contrary to popular opinion, population growth is not the key variable in environmental degradation. The erosion of livelihoods really affect women, especially poor women. Legal and political rights, women's economic independence, education, health, access to reproductive health services, and improved child survival greatly influence fertility decline. The disintegration of women's livelihoods restricts their access to health services and education. We cannot depend on capitalism to protect our livelihoods or the health of the environment. So nongovernmental organizations, international agencies, and national and local governments must do so. Assessments of intensive agriculture, industries destroying the social and physical environment, and military activities are critically needed. We need to reassess the macroeconomic forces affecting the natural environment and livelihoods of the poor. Communities should influence and demand policies and regulations preserving their access to resources. Women must participate more intensely in decision making. They should have access to key services. Citizens should have more access to information on environmental damage of industrialized products and processes. All of us need to advocate for more environmentally sound and sustainable forms of development and technology. People at the local, national, and global levels must work to change values that have caused overconsumption, thereby promoting a new ethic centering on caring for people and the environment.
[Opinions on population development. The recent past and future of the Hungarian population] Korkerdes a nepesedesrol. A Magyar nepesedes kozelmultja es jovoje.
DEMOGRAFIA. 1999; 42(3-4):306-11.Two world wars, the great depression between the wars, dictatorships, the crushing of the revolution in 1956, and subsequent decades all account for the fact that frustrated and disintegrated generations make up Hungarian society, which is starting to reorganize itself very slowly. Nevertheless, the low fertility rate in Hungary is paralleled by developed European countries. The common link in this phenomenon is consumerism. In Mediterranean countries traditional values have lost ground and fertility dropped, while in post-communist countries rising expectations caused by the free flow of information have contributed to the development of a crisis of values. In the majority of the countries of the European Union further reduction in fertility did not take place; in fact, there has been improvement in some cases. In Hungary the economic recession after 1990 was unavoidable, but the continuing declining fertility rate was also attributable to current consumerism and the fiscal austerity policy introduced in 1995. In recent years a slight improvement of mortality can be observed, possibly owing to healthier living and somewhat improved health care. The biggest challenge is the support of an aging population which could be enhanced either by the boosting of fertility or receiving masses of immigrants from high fertility regions. In general, in Europe and in developed countries, narcissistic societies have emerged and in Hungary even the establishment of a civil society is missing.
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. 1999 May; 89(2):251-5.This paper examines how population growth affects the average level of utility, particularly, the consumption per capita. It also focuses on the effects of population growth on the ratio of dependent consumers to working-age adults. The model employed in this paper has three demographic groups: working-age adults, who produce and consume, and the young and elderly, who only consume. This study concluded that the transition to lower population growth requires a long period of reduced dependency in which society benefits from lower spending on children while it has yet to pay for higher old-age dependency. The dependency level after 30 years is not significantly different from that which would exist in an optimal stable population. Any rise in fertility that would decrease old-age dependency in the long run would require a lengthy period of higher-than-steady-state dependency.
Parental consumption decisions and child health during the early French fertility decline, 1790-1914.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY. 1993 Jun; 53(2):259-74.A theoretical framework followed by an empirical test was used to explain the relationship between heights, nutrient consumption, and real gross domestic product in France between 1790 and 1914. The time series and cross sectional analyses aimed to determine whether there is significant substitution between quantity and quality of children. Data were arrayed by department (90) at nine 10-year intervals, which yields 81 continuous observations and a total sample size of 729. Height data was by single year of birth cohort. Controls were included for the northeast region, where heights were the tallest. Five different reduced form models showed an indirect relationship between fertility and height. The first model showed marital fertility having a strongly negative effect on height and explained 22% of the variance in heights. During 1790-1911 French marital fertility declined from 0.8 to 0.3, which added about 25 mm or an English inch of height. In fact, height did increase by this amount. The second model included time trends and regional patterns of height; the result was a reduction in the magnitude of the coefficient. The third model included real wages, which had a negative impact on height, and the crude death rate which had an independent negative influence on height. The regional effect remained strong. The coefficient of marital fertility remained significant but smaller. Model four, with urbanization included, showed a positive effect. Model five included literacy rates, which were strongly correlated with height. The interpretation is made that literacy investments are directly complementary to investments in better nutrition. Food consumption per capita accounts for only a small portion of the increase in height and regional differences. The effect of food consumption is determined by the role of disease and the allocation of resources within families. Thus, in the nineteenth century, heights and life expectancy improved the hard way: by expanding food consumption `to improve resistance to disease and to compensate for morbidity demands on calories.
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN. 1994 Oct; 114-22.At the time of the toolmaking revolution, around 1 million years ago, human numbers rose to 5 million. As humans invented agriculture and animal husbandry, the population grew to about 500 million. In 1994 the number was 5.6 billion; it may double or triple before leveling off again 300 years after the industrial revolution began. If the transition to a warmer, more crowded, more diverse world can be managed, there may be promise of an environmentally sustainable future. The reconstructed population series for 4 ancient regions, the Nile Valley (6000 years), the Tigris-Euphrates lowlands of Iraq (6000 years), the basin of Mexico (3000 years), and the central Maya lowlands of Mexico and Guatemala (2200 years) all show waves in which population doubled over the previous base and then fell by at least half. This raises questions about human life on the earth: perhaps even regions that are world leaders can collapse in modern times. Among likely threats are 3 areas of concern: 1) pollutants: acid rain in the atmosphere, heavy metals in the soils, and chemicals in the groundwater, 2) global atmospheric dangers of nuclear fallout, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climatic warming, 3) deforestation, desertification, and species extinction. 10 billion people would require a 4-fold increase in agricultural production, a 6-fold rise in energy use and an 8-fold increase in the global economy. 2.1 births per woman is required for zero-population growth, while the current birth rate is 3.2. In developing countries after World War II, the life expectancy at birth was 40 years, now it has increased to 65 years. The slowing of the rate of population growth everywhere is encouraging for sustaining life on the earth, which requires cohabitation with the natural world; limits to human activity; and wider distribution of the benefits of human activity.
POPULI. 1993 Nov; 20(10):5-6.Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland delivered the 5th Rafael M. Salas lecture at the United Nations in September 1993. The most serious, predictable, and intractable crisis facing us is population growth. If we do not recognize this threat, we will not be able to circumvent it. We must look at population policies in the wider framework of global burden sharing. We must all equally share bills for peace-keeping, peace-building, reducing poverty and famine, preventing environmental threats, and checking population growth. Areas requiring our attention include a need for industrialized nations to change production and consumption patterns, reduction of poverty, meeting basic human needs, a need for developing countries to protect the environment, and curbing population growth to help realize sustainable development. Industrialized nations need to realize the reducing consumption of natural resources does not denote a reduction in the standard of living. Consumption of renewable and abundant resources need not be reduced, however. Structural adjustment programs and external debt prevent developing countries from increasing their health budgets. Military budgets remain unreasonably high in many countries and those that have military budgets greater than a certain level are uncreditworthy. We should be educating a healthy population not arming them. Signs of hope in reference to population growth include: a consistent, overall decline in fertility which is especially sharp in developing countries; and socioeconomic development centering on enhancing human resources overcoming traditional religious and cultural obstacles to fertility decline. The success of family planning programs depends on improving women's status. Men need to become responsible for their sexual behavior, fertility, health, and children. We know what needs to be done to achieve sustainable development, but we mobilize everyone, especially political leaders and the mass media.
Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1989. , iii, 139 p. (Order No. 8923677)A population of low-income urban squatter households in Amman, Jordan, many of whom are migrants, is used to investigate the degree to which fertility has been affected by exposure to the influence of an urban environment. The data are provided by 2 surveys, carried out in 1981 and 1985, before and after a substantial upgrading program was carried out. The program included the provision of physical and social infrastructure (paved roads, piped water and sewerage, electricity, community centers, and women's training centers, etc.). Since the program also provided the opportunity for households to purchase the land on which they had settled, it represented altogether a substantial change in living conditions and choices for the study population. The surveys thus allowed the investigation of the effects of land ownership on fertility; the factors involved were those such as ethnic background, presence of extended family members in the household, as well as urban exposure. The aspects of fertility which were investigated were: cumulative fertility--analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on cross-sectoral data; contraceptive use--examined using logit and probit analysis as well as OLS, on a subsample of the study population; and current fertility--investigated using Poisson regression to analyze the number of children born between the 2 surveys and the open interval at the time of the 2nd survey to analyze OLS regression. The various analyses do not support a hypothesis of urban exposure per se as being negatively associated with fertility. Apart from the expected findings regarding the biological variables included (age, marital status), and the pervasive negative effect of women's education, the variables tested tend to influence fertility in a direction contrary to expectation. "Higher status" variables such as land ownership, skilled occupation of household head, and income, tend to operate in the direction of allowing larger numbers of children. Contraceptive use levels are higher than would be expected on the basis of observed fertility levels, but are much lower than the potential need for birth spacing, given the relatively large proportion of the women surveyed who did not desire a pregnancy. What emerges, essentially, is that those households studied still either have a large desired family size, due possibly to cultural factors not seen in the analysis (those that would affect the entire population) or that their altered perceptions concerning number of children have not yet been translated into lower fertility. The main policy implications for this population are: changes in dwelling ownership, household head's job status, and household income are unlikely to, on their own, have a strong negative impact on fertility in the shortterm. There is considerable scope, however, for reducing fertility among the older age groups. In view of the likelihood of a decline in breastfeeding popularity, the potential demand for birth spacing, and the positive correlation between contraceptive use and income in the study population, reductions in cost and increased availability of contraceptive methods as part of a healthcare program would likely be beneficial. (author's modified)
Austin, Texas, University of Texas, Texas Population Research Center, 1990. 19,  p. (Texas Population Research Center Paper No. 12.02)This paper offers a new perspective on the fertility decline in Brazil, and argues that a number of government policies have had substantial unintended and unanticipated effects on the rapid changes in reproductive behavior that have taken place since 1960. The four policy areas we focus on are consumer credit, telecommunications, social security, and health care....We address the question of how Brazilian development yielded values and norms consistent with controlled fertility. We claim to have identified significant institutional changes that had a direct and immediate bearing on the way people thought about sex and reproduction, and that facilitated the massive adoption of modern contraception. Our approach to the role of the state differs from that of most Brazilians in that we focus on the unintended effects of real policies rather than the intended effects of a non-policy....[Data are from] the 1980 Northeastern Brazil Survey of Maternal Child Health/Family Planning.... This paper was originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 400).