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A demographic dividend of the FP2020 Initiative and the SDG reproductive health target: Case studies of India and Nigeria.
Gates Open Research. 2018 Feb 22; 2:11.Background: The demographic dividend, defined as the economic growth potential resulting from favorable shifts in population age structure following rapid fertility decline, has been widely employed to advocate improving access to family planning. The current framework focuses on the long-term potential, while the short-term benefits may also help persuade policy makers to invest in family planning. Methods: We estimate the short- and medium-term economic benefits from two major family planning goals: the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020)'s goal of adding 120 million modern contraceptive users by 2020; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3.7 of ensuring universal access to family planning by 2030. We apply the cohort component method to World Population Prospects and National Transfer Accounts data. India and Nigeria, respectively the most populous Asian and African country under the FP2020 initiative, are used as case studies. Results: Meeting the FP2020 target implies that on average, the number of children that need to be supported by every 100 working-age people would decrease by 8 persons in India and 11 persons in Nigeria in 2020; the associated reduction remains at 8 persons in India, but increases to 14 persons in Nigeria by 2030 under the SDG 3.7. In India meeting the FP2020 target would yield a saving of US$18.2 billion (PPP) in consumption expenditures for children and youth in the year 2020 alone, and that increased to US$89.7 billion by 2030. In Nigeria the consumption saved would be US$2.5 billion in 2020 and $12.9 billion by 2030. Conclusions: The tremendous economic benefits from meeting the FP2020 and SDG family planning targets demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of investment in promoting access to contraceptive methods. The gap already apparent between the observed and targeted trajectories indicates tremendous missing opportunities. Accelerated progress is needed to achieve the FP2020 and SDG goals and so reap the demographic dividend.
POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT. 1995 Jul; 16(6):487-505.The recent world model GlobEcco was used to explore the implications of alternative population growth rates for both the industrialized and developing regions of the world. The ECCO method (Evolution of Capital Creation Options) is a simulation model of the entire economy, taking into account population, economic growth potential, environmental requirements, and investments. The population in 1985 was divided between the developed world, with 1.227 billion people, and the developing countries, with 3.617 billion people. Each was examined according to the state of the total economy, food consumption, birth and death rates, and these were related to a physical Material Standard of Living factor (MSOL). The policy of increasing aid to the Third World to 0.7% of the First World's gross domestic product (GDP) from 1992 on improves living standards somewhat, but the Third World continues to lag behind the developed world. The policy of increasing foreign loans from 1% to 5% of the industrialized world's GDP initially reduces MSOL in the First World, but eventually the net flow of wealth runs in the First World's favor, with a debt services ratio exceeding 100%. The policy of reducing consumption in the First World by 5%, while aid is increased to 1.4% of GDP, improves the Third World's circumstances, however, by 2012 the Third World's MSOL is still only 8.2% of the First World's. If the Third World reneges on its international debts in 2008, the debt servicing ratio drops to 0, and the wealth released expands the Third World's economies. The policy of intensifying family planning assistance improves the standard of living in both worlds, however, there is an incipient scarcity of energy by 2020. The policy of intensifying aid with the ECCO Demographic Module shows that Third World MSOL rises to 13.4% of the First World's, however, cumulative resources use increases during the 1st quarter of the 21st century to the point of penury.
[Rome, Italy], FAO, . vi,  p.The dimensions of the water crisis and its implications for the population of the world is the subject of a 4-pamphlet packet distributed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Part 1 relates legends about water and details the role of water in human history. Rapid population growth and its detrimental effects on water conservation and the environmental balance are explained. Recognition of the population growth problem is urged, with government-backed family planning programs recommended. Part 2 gives a detailed explanation of the life cycle and its dependence on soil and water. Climate, vegetation, and types of water are examined in relation to their role in the distribution of available water resources. Future water resources and demand are projected for agriculture, industry, and domestic use. The disruption of the balance between man and water and the problem of water pollution are addressed, as are deforestation, desertification, drought, and the greenhouse effect. Part 3 offers a view of inland waters and agriculture, with a history of irrigation and the role of irrigation today. Rural water, its use, sources, storage, and collection are examined in relation to work distribution, family size, and sanitation. Problems arising from unsafe water supplies, including disease, infection, and malnutrition are discussed, and examples are given of small-scale projects that have successfully addressed these problems. The final section deals with water and the future. A continuing effort at water and land conservation, as well as surface water and ground water management, is urged. Irrigation planning and supporting systems, such as terracing, fallowing, and improved cropping patterns, are presented as further management techniques. Preserving existing resources, lifting, various kinds of wells, new storage methods and purification systems, are suggested to increase domestic water conservation. Examples of water projects in Africa, Asia, and the South Pacific are presented. Finally, population management and its crucial role in future water resources allocation, conservation, and distribution, is provided.
ZEITSCHRIFT FUR BEVOLKERUNGSWISSENSCHAFT. 1987; 13(1):11-28.The author considers implications of anticipated global population growth, giving attention to economic conditions, the environment, education, employment, consumption, developing countries' trade balances, and economic development. The need for intensive family planning efforts in developing countries is stressed. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) (ANNOTATION)
[Obstacles in merging the population and production programs in Rwanda] Les obstacles lies au programme de population et de production au Rwanda
Famille, Sante, Developpement/Imbonezamulyango. 1985 Aug; (3):44-9.One of the problems currently observed in Rwanda is that the most densely populated prefectures do not show better agricultural production. Agricultural technology having reached a logistical plateau, and secondary and tertiary industries for the absorption of the surplus labor force being absent, there is considerable population pressure. It is naive to believe that the now densely populated lands will be induced through radical improvement of exploitation technology to be productive to the point of maintaining more than 9,000,000 people, the projected population of Rwanda for the year 2000. 13.6% of the population is now unemployed, and most agricultural workers produce little surplus. There would be hope for producing a national agricultural surplus by the year 2000, saleable abroad and having as a result the slow establishment of an industrial sector, only if the efforts of a family planning program plateaued the population at 8,000,000. A chart outlines the comulative economic effects of children on a single family, showing considerable financial strain of only 4 children. Bold steps to counter pronatalist attitudes might include elimination of tax benefits for large families, elimination of an identity card with spaces for 12 births and replacing it with one providing for differentials in consumer prices for numbers of children, bonuses for older marriages, and minimum wealth provisions for marriages.