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WORLD HEALTH STATISTICS QUARTERLY. RAPPORT TRIMESTRIEL DE STATISTIQUES SANITAIRES MONDIALES. 1991; 44(4):189-97.The world's urban population, at 2048 million in 1985 is projected to increase by 56% to 3197 million by 2000, and another 72% to 5.493 million by 2025. This urbanization will grow by natural increase, rural-urban migration, and declining mortality. 28 mega-cities of >8 million are expected by 2000. In many Latin American countries cities will account for most of the population increase; in parts of Africa, Asia and China, spectacular increases in urban population is expected. In many of these areas the phenomenon called the "demographic trap" rather than a proper demographic transition seems to be occurring, that is stagnation in the phase of high fertility despite a decline in death rates. The patterns of urbanization peculiar to regions and continents are described, such as the "core regions" around Buenos Aires and Mexico City. Unlike the historical urbanization that accompanied the Western industrial revolution, current urbanization is not driven by economic opportunity but by rural poverty and ecological collapse, and aggravated by recession, external debt, natural disasters and welfare, among other factors. It is estimated that 50% of urban dwellers will subsist in extreme poverty, and they will account for 25% of the world's population by 2000. 30% of these households are headed by women, >50% in Latin America. Policies that governments have applied unsuccessfully to reverse urbanization include disincentives for rural urban migration, land reform, rural minimum wage, tax reform, agricultural subsidies, an urban decentralization settlement. More effective policies are integrated rural and urban development, coercive measures to prevent migration accompanied by economic incentives for rural areas, and resettlement schemes. Some positive cultural developments in urban slums are cited as stemming from the resourcefulness of the squatters, such as growing food.
[Obstacles in merging the population and production programs in Rwanda] Les obstacles lies au programme de population et de production au Rwanda
Famille, Sante, Developpement/Imbonezamulyango. 1985 Aug; (3):44-9.One of the problems currently observed in Rwanda is that the most densely populated prefectures do not show better agricultural production. Agricultural technology having reached a logistical plateau, and secondary and tertiary industries for the absorption of the surplus labor force being absent, there is considerable population pressure. It is naive to believe that the now densely populated lands will be induced through radical improvement of exploitation technology to be productive to the point of maintaining more than 9,000,000 people, the projected population of Rwanda for the year 2000. 13.6% of the population is now unemployed, and most agricultural workers produce little surplus. There would be hope for producing a national agricultural surplus by the year 2000, saleable abroad and having as a result the slow establishment of an industrial sector, only if the efforts of a family planning program plateaued the population at 8,000,000. A chart outlines the comulative economic effects of children on a single family, showing considerable financial strain of only 4 children. Bold steps to counter pronatalist attitudes might include elimination of tax benefits for large families, elimination of an identity card with spaces for 12 births and replacing it with one providing for differentials in consumer prices for numbers of children, bonuses for older marriages, and minimum wealth provisions for marriages.