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Food security for a planet under pressure. Transition to sustainability: interconnected challenges and solutions.
[Durban, South Africa, University of KwaZula-Natal, Health Economics and HIV / AIDS Research Division], 2012.  p. (Rio + 20 Policy Brief)The challenge of feeding the world efficiently and equitably is considerable, but not insurmountable. Achieving food security for all, both now and in the future, depends on putting in place a strong foundation of multi-lateral and cooperative mechanisms that work across disciplines, sectors and national boundaries. Institutions operating effectively at multiple levels will be at the centre of sustainable food systems; these will need to be flexible, promote appropriate use of innovative technologies and policies, and recognize the increasingly important role of non-state actors in enhancing food systems. Above all, there is need for a strong focus on resilience, equity and sustainability. This brief sets out broad guidelines to help policy and decision makers work towards adopting a more coordinated and integrated approach to food security issues.
Liquid assets: How demographic changes and water management policies affect freshwater resources. Summary.
In: Liquid assets: How demographic changes and water management policies affect freshwater resources, [by] Jill Boberg. Santa Monica, California, RAND, 2005. xiii-xxiii.Demographic factors play an important role in environmental change, along with biophysical, economic, sociopolitical, technological, and cultural factors, all of which are interrelated. Recent demographic trends have sparked concern about the impact of the human population on a critical element of the natural environment - fresh water. In the last 70 years, the world's population has tripled in size while going from overwhelmingly rural to a near balance of urban and rural - a change that affects both how humans use water and the amount they consume. In the late 1980s, concern over a potential water crisis began to grow. Much of the resulting literature has taken an alarmist view. Numerous reports sensationalized the so-called water crisis without talking into account the local or regional nature of water resources and the relationship between supply and demand. A number of factors are cited to support the position that the earth is headed toward a water crisis. They include the following: the human population continues to grow; water withdrawals are outpacing population growth; per-capita water availability is declining; clean, potable water is less available worldwide. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI], 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment, 2001 Oct.  p. (Overcoming Water Scarcity and Quality Constraints. Focus 9. Brief 1)Access to enough water of sufficient quality is fundamental for all human, animal, and plant life as well as for most economic activity. At the global level, plenty of water is available. But to meet the demand, water has to be supplied where and when it is needed. These spatial, temporal, and qualitative characteristics pose the greatest challenge to meeting the rising demand in all sectors. Water withdrawals are only part of the picture. Almost all uses put something back into the water that degrades it for other users. Water quality and competition between users are therefore critical issues for the future of water use. There is no single ?magic bullet? to solve these complex and interrelated problems. Increases in water supplies, and especially storage, are needed, but so is demand management, including not only economic instruments but also education and other efforts to change behavior. Appropriate technologies and institutions must both play a role. (excerpt)
Workshop report on human population dynamics and resource demand, 30 November - 1 December 1990. IUCN -- the World Conservation Union, 18th General Assembly, Perth, Australia.
Gland, Switzerland, IUCN, 1991. viii, 53 p.A report on a human population dynamics and resource demand workshop includes a discussion of 1) the ambiguities of sustainable development 2) implementing the principals of caring for the earth, 3) families, communities and sustainable use of natural resources with examples from Australia, Korea, Nepal, Colombia, and Burkina Faso, and priorities and followup action on population and natural resources. The Appendices contain brief accounts of the preassembly meetings, the workshop agenda, a list of participants, a concept paper on population and environment links, a resolution on human population dynamics and resource demand, a resolution on women and natural resource management, a report on the meeting on future orientations of The World Conservation Union's "women and the natural resource management program," and a list of papers available on request. Ambiguities pointed out, for example, by Dr. van den Oever were that population growth, which is a demographic phenomena, needs to be considered separately from resource consumption at high levels. Another distinction was made between decreasing the rate of population growth and stopping population growth entirely. Stable populations continue to grow until they become stationary. Another distinction was made between the demographic data available and the lack of similar data on natural resources such as trees, plants, or animals. Another, discussant, Professor Malin Falkenmark, noted the lack of attention paid to the single most important resource to sustain life, water. In order to implement principles of caring for the earth, universities and students must become more involved in advocacy and in the real world. Policy decisions are difficult to make in Pakistan. Americans think that their own over-consumption needs to be checked before they can interfere in developing countries. The priorities are population growth, dealing with the inequities between rich and poor, resource consumption, and not ignoring the southern developing countries while eastern Europe currently receives attention.
In: Global biodiversity strategy: guidelines for action to save, study, and use Earth's biotic wealth sustainably and equitably, [compiled by] World Resources Institute [WRI], World Conservation Union [IUCN], United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP], in consultation with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO], UNESCO. [Washington, D.C.], WRI, 1992. 37-54.It is at the local level where people forfeit or preserve biodiversity. Yet government policies develop incentives that either help or restrain local action. Even though governments tend to intervene in markets for a variety of reasons (e.g., encourage industrial growth), many development policies do not value environmental resources and sometimes accelerate depletion of natural resources and biodiversity loss. They even encourage overexploitation of species, alteration of natural environments, and oversimplistic agricultural ecosystems. It makes economic and ecological sense to reform these policies. For example, governments which subsidize individuals for using natural resources strains national economies and hinders development. Industrialized countries subsidize agriculture at an annual cost of US$150 billion from the outlay of consumers and taxpayers although it drains the environment. 57% of the European Community's budget supports agricultural prices whereas only 1% goes to protect the environment. Indonesia lost US$2 billion between 1979-82 due to its forest policies. Therefore investments in biodiversity conservation more than compensates for savings due to policy reforms. National resource and trade policies must consider biodiversity's potential benefits which include enhanced food security, economic development, and improved medical care. Thus countries need to reform public policies that decrease or misuse biodiversity. These existing policies include forestry, coastal and marine ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems, and agricultural policies. They also need to approve new public policies and accounting methods that encourage conservation and equitable use of biodiversity. Countries must provide widespread access to family planning services and more funding to promote family planning use and reduce consumption through recycling and conservation.
CURRENT HISTORY. 1996 Nov; 95(604):366-71.While most Americans would agree that population growth is a problem, they do not perceive the US to be part of the problem. Technological optimists argue that theoretically the planet can sustain 10 billion people. However, rapid population growth multiples poverty and environmental degradation. Therefore, just letting population double recklessly over the next 50 years will generate vast segments of the world population who live in extremely poor and difficult conditions. If the world pursues the American model of development, some basic physical and biological systems could be at risk of collapsing. There is also a possibility that in developing countries such as Mexico, Egypt, Kenya, and the Philippines, a downward spiral of population growth, debt, inequality, and loss of soil and agricultural production could lead to economic decline and widespread political instability. Humankind still has some time in which to control pollution and prevent the degradation of our natural resource base. A population of 10-11 billion should be able to live humanely on the earth's available resources if governments take the necessary and appropriate actions required to check excessive consumption and manage resources sustainably. The US must take the lead in this endeavor. The author discusses population growth and consumption in developed and developing countries, implementing sustainability, and policies for change.
CARRYING CAPACITY NETWORK FOCUS. 1997; 7(1):37-9.The subject of demographic entrapment is taboo in most UN agencies and in academia because of the upheaval that would occur if entrapment were acknowledged. Demographic entrapment occurs if a population has exceeded or is projected to exceed the combination of the carrying capacity of its own ecosystem and its ability to trade for its needs or to migrate to other ecosystems. Demographic entrapment leads populations to become progressively stunted physically (as is occurring in Malawi) or starve, die from disease, or implode in social chaos (Rwanda). Disentrapment can theoretically occur if communities increase the carrying capacity of their ecosystem, develop an export community, increase migratory opportunity, reduce population growth, or combine these measures. The major method of escaping entrapment seems to be reducing population growth by promoting one-child families. If developed countries urge developing countries to adopt this policy, developed countries should adopt it also because per capita consumption of natural resources in developed countries is perhaps 50 times greater than in developing countries. Discussion of demographic entrapment remains taboo because of fear that such discussion would challenge: 1) the materialistic, consumeristic, market economy that is the current foundation of global society; 2) the consumption and employment patterns of developed countries; 3) human rights notions about reproduction, anti-abortion attitudes, and pronatalist views; and 4) false assumptions about universal economic development. Countries (like Malawi) where entrapment is causing widespread malnutrition should receive interim food aid tied to population reduction. Developed countries should promote development of sustainable lifestyles that include having one-child families and consuming photon-efficient diets. UN agencies must face the uproar that will occur upon acknowledgement of entrapment in order to call for simultaneous reproductive and lifestyle changes throughout the world.
POPULATION BULLETIN (WASHINGTON). 1997 Feb; 51(4):1-48.This report provides an overview of food supply issues. The authors propose some ways to provide food security within the agricultural sector, within government, and with agricultural research. Increasing populations and food demands combined with unequal access are constraints to food security. Environmental problems that affect productivity include erosion, desertification, and salinization. 840 million people, including 200 million children, do not have enough to eat. The world produces enough to sufficiently feed 6 billion people, but poverty, natural disasters, political violence, and geopolitical factors prevent one-seventh of world population from getting enough to eat. Only 15 crops provide 90% of the world's energy intake. Rice, maize, and wheat account for 66% of all food energy. Root crops and pulses account for a large proportion. In 1990, 1 billion farmers produced about 3800 calories/person/day annually. Total caloric requirements depend upon age and gender, basal metabolic rate, physical activity, and prevalence of pregnancy, infections, stunting, or other health conditions. 40% of food in middle-income countries and 25-30% in high-income countries is lost or wasted. 22 African, 5 Asian, and 3 Latin American countries have low/declining grain consumption. The former Soviet Union holds the promise for increasing grain production. The gap between actual and potential yields may be brought closer with improved management and land quality. Crop yields are affected by soil, plant, climatic, and socioeconomic factors. There should be more efficient use of existing water resources. Nutrient recycling is a less expensive and more environmentally friendly way of improving soil quality. Agricultural research must be supported. The health of the agricultural sector affects 2.6 million people and 58% of populations in Asia and Africa. Government affects the food supply through price subsidies, trade policy, food procurement practice, exchange rates, and investments in agricultural research.
CHINA POPULATION TODAY. 1996 Dec; 13(5-6):23-4.This article draws upon China's White Paper on Food Security and Grain Production. The White Paper posits that China will be able to supply sufficient grain to feed its growing population and also supplement world grain supplies. Current grain consumption increased from 210 kg per capita in 1949 to 385 kg per capita in 1995. It is expected that population will reach 1.6 billion in 2030 before population begins to decline. It is expected that the per capita grain consumption could increase to 400 kg per capita during 1996-2030. China plans to meet consumption demands by increasing per unit yields on currently available cultivated land by 1% during 1996-2010 and by 0.7% during 2011-2030. These yield increases are considered small compared to the unit increases of 3.1% over the past 46 years. China plans on meeting consumption needs also by relying more on new developments in science and technology. Currently only 35% of agricultural productivity is due to science and technology. China also plans to protect cultivated land and turn 35 million hectares of wasteland into arable land. The government plans to reclaim over 300,000 hectares annually in order to compensate for reductions in arable land. Arable land is reduced by incursions from urban populations. 660,000 hectares of arable land are lost annually to urban growth, or 0.2% annually. The government must contend with the lack of incentives among farmers to produce grain, when other crops are more profitable and local governments are insufficiently funding the grain sector. China must address problems of water conservation and inadequate infrastructure. China agreed to expand land contracts for grain production from 15 years to 30 years and to permit land transfers without payment. The government will work to lower the cost of production, increase investment in infrastructure, and improve the operation of the grain market.
ENVIRONMENT. 1995 Jul-Aug; 37(6):6-11, 25-34.Population in 1995 was about 1.2 billion in China and about 935 million in India. Populations are expected to reach respectively 1.5 billion and 1.4 billion by 2025. These two countries now and in the future will average about 35% of total world population. This article compares the current and expected demographic, economic, and environmental conditions in China and India. How these countries manage their growth, poverty, and population will affect the region and the world as well as each nation. China's fertility is now below replacement but population momentum will increase population by about 300 million/year. India's fertility is 3.6 children/woman and India will add 450 million/year. China's population over 60 years old will reach 20% by 2020, while India's will be under 15% in 2025. China will be almost 55% urban by 2025 from 30% in the 1990s, and India will be 45% urban from 27% urban. China's economic growth has averaged over 9%/year compared to India's 5% annual growth during the 1980s and the economic decline during the 1990s. China has 12% of rural population living below the poverty line and India has about 33% of its total population impoverished. China's life expectancy is about 10 years higher. Under-five mortality is 43/1000 live births in China and 131/1000 in India. Poverty-related diseases are still high in India. China is a homogenous population with an authoritarian regime. India is a democracy with a large nongovernmental community and a heterogenous population. India has about 33% of the land area of China but over twice the agricultural land per person. About 50% of China's land and only 25% of India's land is irrigated. Water resources are problems in northern China and much of India. Air and water pollution are problems in both countries. Differences in the population-environment-development context are discussed in terms of the effects of poverty, the constraints posed by development, and the environmental impact of rising per capita consumption. It is concluded that India faces the more difficult future.
POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW. 1996 Feb; 15(1):1-19.The subject of this paper is the political behavior of developing states (the South) on issues of population, environment, and development. It attempts to understand why the South is so weary of international population policy in the name of the environment. It argues that the South's response is shaped by five interrelated concerns about responsibility, efficiency, efficacy, additionality, and sovereignty. That is, the developing countries, a) do not want their population growth to be held responsible for global environmental degradation, b) argue that a more efficient solution to the environmental crisis is consumption control in the North, c) believe that development remains a necessary condition for efficacious population control, d) are weary of the population priorities of the North distracting international funds from other developmental goals of the South, and e) are unprepared to accept any global population norms which challenge their fundamental political, cultural, or religious sovereignty. It is maintained that these concerns have historically guided the positions of the South and remain valid and relevant today. Although, over the last two decades of North-South debate on the subject the nuances within these concerns have evolved, the concerns themselves remain valid and were apparent again at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. Finally, it is proposed that although a grand North-South bargain around population-environment-development issues remains unlikely, both sides can gain much from trying to understand--even where they do not agree with-- the other's concerns. The purpose of this study is not as much to defend the South's position, as to present it and the rationale behind it. (author's)
NIGERIA'S POPULATION. 1993 Oct-Dec; 45-6.The comments about Nigerian population policy as presented at the population conference in November, 1992, by former head of state General Olusegun Obasanjo were presented. The nature of the population policy focused on improvement in standard of living, promotion of health and welfare, lowering of population growth rates through voluntary fertility regulation, and balanced distribution of population between urban and rural areas. Although the population policy was late in being adopted, it was a step in the proper direction. Fear of survival and security from slave traders and the consequent fertility increases are carryovers from the past. Modern prescriptions for better health care and housing have a higher cost and the quality of life cannot be improved without a reduction in population size. The cost of education from primary school to university is estimated at N 1.5 million. There are those who argue that Africa's 10% of world population and 22.6% of habitable land are sufficient justification for continued uncontrolled population growth. What is neglected is the adjustment necessary when there is exponential population growth. Poverty is a primary cause; no one is safe or secure under these conditions of growing poverty, and revolution may be at hand. There are also those who believe that the population policy was "too little, too late," and that the link between population, development, and the environment must be added to the rights, responsibilities, and obligations of individuals. Both the North and the South have contributed to environmental pollution. There is an interdependency of economic, social, ecological, demographic, and health issues, and accurate knowledge of this dimension is crucial to the design of improved policies. Sustainable development is desirable, but the question remains as to whether the North will limited their conspicuous and obscene consumption of resources. America's prolife prochoice debate misses the point. Prohumanity and proresponsibility are the desired objectives; the concern is not just with individual choice, but the impact of that choice on others. Nigerians must advance with knowledge and understanding to action, and everyone needs to make population a tool for development and prosperity a delight. A partnership between the governed and the government must be forged.
In: We speak for ourselves. Population and development, [compiled by] Panos Institute. [Washington, D.C.], Panos Institute, 1994. 3-5.There is a development solution that assures men and woman of being truly represented, prepared to define their own needs, and capable of fulfilling their needs. It involves investing in human capital through education, improved health services, and empowerment. When the poor, women, ethnic minorities, and other disadvantaged groups are able to make informed economic and political choices, there will be fertility reductions and better use of natural resources. Sustainable development involves a partnership between the North and the South that includes new patterns of production, consumption, waste disposal, and human reproduction. The solution is simultaneous and coordinated action to deal with improving living standards, protecting and renewing natural resources, and reducing population growth. Northern development solutions frequently recognize the need to reduce poverty, however, policies have encouraged private development for higher profit margins and control of market shares, rather than poverty alleviation. The environment in the South is being jeopardized by the movement of hazardous and polluting industries into developing countries and the dumping of Northern solid and untreated factory waste in the South. The example was given of maquila factories in Mexico that make profits out of cheap labor, tax incentives and lax environmental and industrial safety measures, while, encouraging migration and not contributing to infrastructure development. The environment is being destroyed by both poverty and affluence, and unchecked population growth. The development model as reflected in the Mexican example equates development with economic growth, or a market solution to solve social problems without regard for the views and concerns of those who desire the benefits of development. Global competition through development is encouraged by the advantage of cheap labor. The assumption is that income will contribute to the satisfaction of needs. The problem is that needs are determined by market forces, or a limited number of multinational conglomerates. Press reports on the 1992 Earth Summit noticed that population growth was ignored, even though it is a major contributor to environmental degradation, but women's groups in the South countered that attention to population growth ignores other important factors and makes women pawns.
[New York, New York], United Nations, 1992.  p.Drafts of Agenda 21 of the Rio Declaration on Forest Principles is a massive and detailed account in 4 parts: 1) the preamble and the social and economic dimensions, 2) conservation and management of resources for development, 3) strengthening the role of major groups, and 4) means of implementation. There are 40 chapters largely devoted to issues concerning management of water resources. The Appendix includes the Adoption of Agreements on Environment and Development note by the Secretary General of the Conference and the Proposal by the Chairman of the Preparatory Committee of May 7, 1992; 27 principles were agreed upon. Also included is the nonlegal binding authoritative statement of principles for a global consensus on the management, conservation, and sustainable development of all types of forests by the Secretary General and the preamble and principles. Part I is concerned with international cooperation in increasing sustainable development in developing countries, the reduction of poverty, the change in consumption patterns, demographic dynamics, the protection and promotion of human health conditions, the promotion of sustainable human settlement development, and the integration of the environment and development in decision making. Part II includes atmosphere protection, integration of planning and management of land resources, deforestation, managing fragile ecosystems, conservation of biological diversity, protection of the oceans, seas, and coastal areas as well as a rational use of resources, protection of freshwater resources, environmental sound management of hazardous wastes and solid wastes and sewage, and safe and environmentally sound management of radioactive wastes. Part III is devoted to the preamble, global action for women, children and youth in sustainable development, recognition and strengthening of the role of indigenous people and communities, strengthening nongovernmental organizations, local authorities initiatives in support of Agenda 21, strengthening workers and trade unions, the scientific and technological community, and strengthening the role of farmers. Part IV identifies financial resources and mechanisms, environmentally sound technology transfer, science, promotion of education and public awareness, international institutional arrangements, international legal instruments and mechanisms, and information for decision making.
Commercialization of agriculture under population pressure: effects on production, consumption, and nutrition in Rwanda.
Washington, D.C., International Food Policy Research Institute, 1991. 123 p. (Research Report 85)This research reports on the effects of increased commercialization on production, household real income, family food consumption, expenditures, on nonfood goods and services, and the nutritional status of the population in Rwanda. The process by which household food consumption and nutritional status are affected by commercialization is described with emphasis on identifying the major elements and how each element is influenced by the change. The issue was whether agricultural production systems and efficient use of resources can be sustained under population pressure. The study area was the commune of Giciye in Gisenyi district in northwestern Rwanda. The area is mountainous and has very poor quality and acidic soils, with a deficiency of phosphorus. Population increase averaged 4.2%/year. There is a high prevalence of underconsumption and malnutrition. Subsistence food production is becoming increasingly more difficult. New activities include production of tea and expansion of potato production. There is beer processing from sorghum and off-farm employment. The forces driving commercialization are identified, followed by a discussion of the production and income effects of the commercialization process, the consumption relationships and effects, the consumption/nutrition/health links, and the longterm perspectives on rural development. The research design, theory, and data base are described. The conclusions were that increasing the rate of change in agricultural technology for subsistence crops would not maintain even the current levels of poverty; there must be reductions in population growth. The recommended strategy is to encourage diversification of the rural economy with specialization in both agriculture and nonagricultural products and to improve the human capital and infrastructure base. Labor productivity needs to be increased as well as employment expansion. Labor-intensive erosion control methods such as terracing are recommended as a resource investment, which are assumed to take into account women and their time constraints. Tea production which is considered a women's crop has offered off-farm employment opportunities. Consideration must be given to land tenure policy and issues of compensation for loss of land during the commercialization process. Health and sanitation measures are needed concurrently with economic development.
Development. 1992; (2):17-21.A Vice President of the Society for International Development discusses practical ways to manage the environment by developing and executing an ecologically sustainable policy on food and energy. Despite the abundance of international declarations and guidelines since 1972, many ecological tragedies have taken place: drought in Africa; chemical leak in Bhopal, India; and nuclear fallout from a nuclear reactor in Chernobyl in the former USSR. Deforestation; burning of fossil fuels; release of methane from rice planting, cattle farming, and waste dumps; release of chlorofluorocarbons are all contributing to the rising temperature of the planet's atmosphere. Reforestation is needed to break down excess carbon dioxide. Local development projects and universal development strategies are needed to solve this great ecological problem. The only sustainable solution to the food problem includes a definition of ecological limits for international and national agricultural policies and development and use of agricultural techniques that guarantee a sustainable food supply. In industrialized countries, farmers must reduce agricultural overproduction and use less intensive production methods to protect soil and ground water. We must begin rational consumption of energy and using alternative forms of energy such as wind, water, and sun. These efforts require considerable financial, human, and technical resources through international cooperation. A multidisciplinary approach is needed to implement various alternative supply models. We must return to regional and local planning and action and also establish an orderly transfer of technology and research by improving education, communication, and training. This transfer cannot be a 1-way transfer, however. The European Common Market is an example of international cooperation to address common problems.
In: The global possible: resources, development, and the new century, edited by Robert Repetto. New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University Press, 1985. 457-73. (World Resources Institute Book)If certain institutional conditions are upheld, markets can provide supplies and allocate use so that minerals and materials will satisfy our needs for a very long time, likely forever. These conditions include internalization of environmental damages, worldwide trade access to raw materials, access to the earth's crust for exploration, and prevention of market control by either sellers or buyers. Contrary to popular belief, primary mineral supplies are indeed infinite since they flow to the world economy at a cost that will support their demand as influenced by supplies from scrap. Rarely do interruptions in supply justify government interference in mineral markets. Technology tends to provide new supplies or changes material demands. For example, in the mid 1970s in Zaire, the military prevented cobalt supplies from reaching the markets. Manufacturers of jet engine turbines and high temperature magnets asked the US government to open up strategic cobalt stockpiles to meet their needs. The government did not do so since no state of emergency existed. Cobalt prices increased. This predicament forced research and/or development of new technologies: Cobalt-free magnets and use of other materials such as ceramics for turbine blades. Many people do not consider the large mineral deposits in the seabed because of the tremendous costs to extract them. Technological development is need to identify means to explore and extract them. Mineral and material demand are not always in those countries where the deposits exist so international trade is very important. Thus policies permit efficient trade, production, and use should be promoted. The market works.
WORLD BANK RESEARCH OBSERVER. 1992 Jul; 7(2):145-69.Economic development in developing countries must be accomplished in a manner that does not harm the environment with pollution. Pollution harms human health and productivity. Thus appropriate strategies must be developed that promote growth, reduce poverty, and protect the environment. A review of the current literature is performed with attention paid to cost-effective interventions i.e., comparisons of regulatory and fiscal instruments that can reduce pollution. Both direct instruments (like effluent charges, tradable permits, deposit refund systems, emission regulations and regulatory agency funding for purification, cleanup, waste disposal, and enforcement) and indirect instruments (like input/output taxes and subsidies, substitution subsidies, abatement inputs, regulation of equipment and processes, and development of clean technologies) are examined. Examples are used to show how indirect instruments can be successful when monitoring and enforcement is too costly. A careful examination of distributive concerns illustrate how the effect on the poor may need particular consideration and how groups with vested interests can help evaluate the probable success of such interventions.
POPULATION RESEARCH. 1986 Apr; 3(2):9-14.The effect of growth of rural commodity production in China on population is discussed theoretically. In primitive societies, rural people desire more children to do the work; in capitalist societies they desire fewer because children need to be educated and interfere with consumption. In socialist societies, desired family size depends on the developmental level. In China, rural industrial output made up 11.7% of the national product in 1982, and is growing. The economic structure is changing so that 100 million people will be working in rural enterprises by 2000. Childbearing practices will change as people are freed from the land. Several trends will limit population growth. As incomes rise, desire for consumer goods will decrease population growth. Investment in production, technical education, science and culture will increase. Rural development will make funds available to spend on family planning. On the other hand, rural commodity production may stimulate population growth temporarily because currently the production unit is the family, and many specialized workers are needed to run these enterprises. Other factors, such as traffic and poor transport in market towns, slow change in attitudes of rural people, the tradition of small production units will reverse family planning trends. Another possible factor is focusing effort on material production rather than family planning work. Measures to be taken to enhance family planning while rural development takes place include: encouragement of large-scale production and specialization of labor; investment in education in technology, science, culture and health; adaptation of family planning methods to local conditions; and training of more and better qualified family planning workers.
In: Problemas populacionales Peruanos II, [edited by] Roger Guerra-Garcia. Lima, Peru, Asociacion Multidisciplinaria de Investigacion y Docencia en Poblacion, 1986. 225-36.This work is an amplification of an article on food production and rural problems that appeared in the original volume of "Peruvian Population Problems" published in 1980. Because the problems identified 5 years earlier remain largely unchanged, this article contains additional ideas for improving production and distribution of foods, taking into account the unfavorable economic conditions and poorly developed internal market in Peru. There is a tendency for ministeries of agriculture to attribute production increases to good policy, while decreases are explained by poor weather or unfavorable international marketing conditions. Government policy influences production, but in statistical analyses and in policy decisions, climatic and market conditions each year should be objectively considered in order to avoid intentional or unintentional deception. Taking 1979 as the base year, agricultural production declined by 20% and livestock production by 1.4% in 1980. In 1981, production increases of 4.1% were achieved except in sugar cane, while in 1983 the increase was over 17% and in 1983 there was an 8.3% decline. Between 1980-84, Peruvian exports of coffee, sugar, and cotton amounted to nearly 1 billion dollars, but imports of foods amounted to 2 billion dollars. Foods imported were primarily wheat, maize, milk products, and soy beans. Dependence on food imports is a significant factor in food price increases. Apart from increasing the quantity of land under cultivation, there is a significant potential for increased agricultural production through improved productivity and commercialization, more complete utilization of products, and subproducts, and increased export of nontraditional agricultural products. Increases in productivity can be achieved by transferring to farmers the achievements of plant researchers. The costs of inputs necessary for the new agricultural techniques must not be excessive in relation to prices paid to growers, and the various institutions providing agricultural services must coordinate their programs. The purchashing power of the population must be increased if nutritional status is to improve. Efforts should initially be focussed on increasing production of foods that would otherwise be imported, including wheat, barley, maize, oils, milk products, meat, and on products for export. The food policy should address issues of availability of food, including a family planning program as a basic component; family income and food expenditures; physical infrastructure for community food supplies and services; nutrition education, basic sanitation, international food aid, and similar issues; development of institutions for community participation in food supply and distribution; and training of personnel to design and implement rural development and food policies.
Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1987. 10 p. (Population Research Leads No. 25)The Asian and Pacific region's decline in fertility and mortality over the past 2 decades has resulted in large shifts in the age composition of national populations, which affects planning in nearly every social and economic sector. For the region as a whole, the crude birthrate is estimated to have remained at 40/1000 population until about 1970, declining to 27/1000 in the 1980-85 period. This rapid decline in fertility has complicated population policy formulation and the integration of population factors into development planning. The demonstration that government programs could alter demographic trends meant that population no longer could be treated simply as an exogenous variable in development planning. The combination of previously high fertility and declining mortality, which particularly affected the survival rates of infants and children, resulted in a small increase in the proportion of the population of the region below age 15, from 37% in 1950 to 41% in 1970. By 1985, the latter proportion dropped to 35% because of declining fertility. Due to the previously high fertility and more recent declines, the proportion of the population in working-age groups increased from 56% in 1975 to 61% in 1985 and is projected to reach 65% by 2000. Providing employment for this rapidly increasing population of labor-force age is a major challenge for countries of the region over the next several decades. For those few countries in the Asian and Pacific regions who had low birth and death rates by 1960, the current issue is demographic aging. As the rate of population growth per se decreases in importance as a planning goal, other aspects of population, such as spatial distribution, take on more significance. The rising marriage age and organized family planning programs were the primary causes of fertility decline in the region, although the decline was limited in South Asia where large pockets of high fertility (a total fertility rate in the range of 5-7) remain. The contribution of rising marriage age to further fertility decline is approaching the limit, except in the countries of South Asia where the marriage age continues to be below 20 years. In most of the countries of the region, the potential also exists for a 2nd generation "baby boom" resulting from a changing age structure. This would in turn slow down the pace of fertility decline unless compensated by a rapid fall in fertility of younger married women caused by successful implementation of family planning programs and other associated socioeconomic changes. Aside from the straightforward implications of demographic change, changes in age structure also imply changes in consumption patterns. Thus, planning for production, consumption, investment, and distribution always should incorporate changes in age structure.
[Migrations in Africa: comments on the article by Professor Adepoju] Les migrations en Afrique: commentaires de l'article du Prof. Adepoju.
[Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 10 p.This paper contains comments on the paper delivered by A. Adepoju to the 1986 PanAfrican Conference of Parlementarians on Population and Development in Harare, Zimbabwe. Scarcely 20 years ago, economists saw migration as a sign of economic progress in which rural populations were slowly transferred to the urban industrial centers where thousands of jobs awaited them. It is now known that the speed and intensity of migration pose serious economic, social, and political problems for African countries. No country has an optimal spatial distribution of population. Natural resources, soil quality, and poles of economic growth are unevenly distributed. Migration is principally a process of adjusting settlement patterns to resources and economic conditions. What is now astounding in Africa is the huge gap between the quality of life in rural and urban areas. The rural exodus of the past 2 decades in most African countries has been due not so much to drought or other natural disasters as to insufficiency of resources in the countryside. A policy to distribute resources between rural and urban zones would constitute a true policy of population distribution. During the decade from 1980-90, the pace of urbanization in Africa is expected to decline. Current projections do not anticipate continuing economic crisis or natural disasters. Creation of urban jobs to combat unemployment in the cities has had the effect of intensifying the rural exodus, transforming the problem of urban unemployment into a permanent structural problem. Rural resettlement programs and sedentarization programs for nomads are limited solutions to problems of spatial distribution which frequently lack true political support for the extended periods necessary to ensure their success. Their greatest challenge is to provide the means of retaining the children of the original settlers so that new migratory flows do not arise from them. Policies to encourage the growth of medium sized cities in order to reduce migration to the capital are even harder to implement than rural resettlement programs, and appear to hold limited promise in Africa. Given the low degree of industrialization in Africa, few countries are capable of creating new urban growth poles offering sufficiently diversified employment to divert migrants from the capital. The observation over the past several decades in Africa has been that the larger the city, the more migrants it attracts. International migration within Africa has probably lessened in intensity since the 1970s due to economic problems in the countryside. Free circulation of population is however required if Africa is to be an economic community. The "brain drain" is a source of worry to many governments despite the shortterm benefits derived from remittances. Overall, few African governments have coherent migration policies. Only by giving migration policy priority in development plans can African countries hope to influence the distribution of their populations.
Tokyo, Japan, Nihon University, Population Research Institute, 1986. vi, 30 p. (NUPRI Research Paper Series no. 26)Anticipating accelerated rates of urbanization in developing countries in Asia, the author emphasizes the need for a disaggregated sectoral approach to analyzing food policy. It is noted that food policies in the past have focused on issues of aggregate supply. "With urbanization accompanying economic development, the composition effect in food demand becomes more significant than the scale effect as consumers continuously switch to foodstuffs of better quality and more variety....A good part of the food problem, however, may have to do with the changing composition of requirements resulting not only from increasing incomes but also from the locational shifts of households....Furthermore, with urbanization there is the phenomenon of entitlement shifts as households move away from both direct and exchange entitlements to food in rural areas to only exchange entitlement in cities." (EXCERPT)
[Documentation of the papers presented during the meeting of the German Society for Demography, Working Group on Population Economy, October 3-5, 1984, in Buchenbach] Dokumentation der Referate, die wahrend der Tagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft im Arbeitskreis Bevolkerungsokonomie vom 3. bis 5.10.1984 in Buchenbach gehalten wurden
Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of, Germany, Federal Republic of. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, 1985. 183 p. (Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft no. 41)This publication contains six papers presented at a meeting of the German Society for Demography's Working Group on Population Economy, held in Buchenbach, Federal Republic of Germany, in 1984. The focus of the meeting was on the relationships between population trends and economic, social, and family policy, with a geographic emphasis on the Federal Republic of Germany. Papers are included on a market-economy alternative to traditional family policy, the income situation of families, the role of population trends in discussions of consumer demand, savings and family size, the short-term analysis of demographic changes and the labor market, and family allowances and their effects on family income and the employment of mothers.
Family decisionmaking over the life cycle: some implications for estimating the effects of income maintenance programs.
Santa Monica, California, Rand Corporation, 1973 Nov. 62 p. ([Rand Report] R-1121-EDA/OEO Grant No. OER 388-G-71-11 Grant No. 90088-D-72-01)The standard 1 period labor supply model that economists have used is in some ways an inadequate tool to evaluate a Family Assistance Plan (FAP). The main difficulty is that an FAP will have important interperiod life or cycle effects. In the standard model, which contains just 1 time period, interperiod effects are ignored. The 1 period model is appropriate only when the proposal being investigated does not alter the incentives to substitute economic activity between item periods. But an FAP will typically change an individual's wages by different percentage amounts at different points in his life cycle, providing him with incentives to alter the timing of his market participation. Observing the change in labor supplied in only 1 period can give a misleading indication of the total effect of an FAP. For the purpose of studying an FAP, a complete model of labor supply must incorporate its effects on the timing of market responses. Recent contributions have permitted inclusion of the timing aspects in an economic model of choice. By extending the original 1 period model to a lifetime context, it was possible to place in sharp focus the previously neglected influence of cyclincal, seasonal, and life cycle movements in wage rates and other variables. The pure life cycle model is deprived here without reference to its implications for an FAP. The timing of market participation is shown to depend on the life cycle wage pattern of men and women, the rate of interest and the rate of time preference, and any age related changes in the productivity of nonmarket uses of time. A comparison of the predictions of the pure life cycle and pure 1 period models attempts to clarify circumstances under which the life cycle model should be used and those under which the single period model is appropriate. The theoretical model is then used to predict and analyze the expected labor supply effects of an FAP. The effects of an FAP partly reflect life cycle considerations and partly the more standard 1 period model. The appropriate model to use, a marriage of the 2 pure special cases, shows that it is essential to identify those periods in the family life cycle when the family is eligible for benefits and those in which it is not. The use of the 1 period model has probably led researchers to underestimate the magnitude of the labor market withdrawals in those years in which the family is eligible for benefits. Human capital investments are included in the model. This generalization leads to a number of predictions concerning which groups in society are most likely to have the largest labor supply reactions to an FAP. Economic theory in fact suggests that young married women and those individuals in older families will exhibit larger reductions in market work than other groups in society. An empirical simulation of the predicted effects on an FAP on the hours behavior of men and women is included. Results show a much larger effect of an FAP on work behavior of married women than on work behavior of male heads of households. (author's modified)