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The inter-relationship among economic activities, environmental degradation, material consumption and population health in low-income countries: a longitudinal ecological study.
BMJ Open. 2015; 5(7):e006183.OBJECTIVES: The theory of ecological unequal exchange explains how trade and various forms of economic activity create the problem of environmental degradation, and lead to the deterioration of population health. Based on this theory, our study examined the inter-relationship among economic characteristics, ecological footprints, CO2 emissions, infant mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates in low-income countries. DESIGN: A longitudinal ecological study design. SETTING: Sixty-six low-income countries from 1980 to 2010 were included in the analyses. Data for each country represented an average of 23 years (N=1497). DATA SOURCES: Data were from the World Development Indicators, UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database, Global Footprint Network and Polity IV Project. ANALYSES: Linear mixed models with a spatial power covariance structure and a correlation that decreased over time were constructed to accommodate the repeated measures. Statistical analyses were conducted separately by sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and other regions. RESULTS: After controlling for country-level sociodemographic characteristics, debt and manufacturing, economic activities were positively associated with infant mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, export intensity and foreign investment were beneficial for reducing infant and under-5 mortality rates in Latin America and other regions. Although the ecological footprints and CO2 emissions did not mediate the relationship between economic characteristics and health outcomes, export intensity increased CO2 emissions, but reduced the ecological footprints in sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, although export intensity was positively associated with the ecological footprints and also CO2 emissions, the percentage of exports to high-income countries was negatively associated with the ecological footprints. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested that environmental protection and economic development are important for reducing infant and under-5 mortality rates in low-income countries. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
The (indispensable) middle class in developing countries; or, the rich and the rest, not the poor and and the rest.
Washington, D.C., Center for Global Development, 2010 Mar.  p. (CGD Working Paper 207)Inclusive growth is widely embraced as the central economic goal for developing countries, but the concept is not well defined in the development economics literature. Since the early 1990s, the focus has been primarily on pro-poor growth, with the “poor” being people living on less than $1 day, or in some regions $2 day. The idea of pro-poor growth emerged in the early 1990s as a counterpoint to a concern with growth alone (measured in per-capita income) and is generally defined as growth which benefits the poor as much or more han the rest of the population. Examples include conditional cash transfers, which target the poor while minimizing the fiscal burden on the public sector, and donors’ emphasizing primary over higher education as an assured way to benefit the poor while investing in long-term growth through increases in human capital. Yet these pro-poor, inclusive policies are not necessarily without tradeoffs in fostering long-run growth. In this paper I argue that the concept of inclusive growth should go beyond the traditional emphasis on the poor (and the rest) and take into account changes in the size and economic command of the group conventionally defined as neither poor nor rich, i.e., the middle class.
Quantification of health commodities: HIV test kit companion guide. Forecasting consumption of HIV test kits.
Arlington, Virginia, JSI, DELIVER, 2009 Jun.  p. (USAID Contract No. GPO-I-01-06-00007-00)Successful implementation and expansion of HIV counseling and testing services is dependent on the continuous supply and availability of high-quality HIV test kits and the additional consumable supplies required at HIV testing sites. The variability in HIV testing procedures, the multiple purposes of testing, and the different types of HIV test kits available pose particular challenges in managing HIV test kit supply chains. The primary focus and purpose of this companion guide is to supplement the general guide on Quantification of Health Commodities: A Guide to Forecasting and Supply Planning for Procurement by describing in detail the specific methodology for forecasting consumption of HIV test kits as a critical step in the overall quantification process.
New York, New York, Population Council, 2008.  p.This fact sheet contains a bulleted list of the information presented in the Bongaarts' essay "Food and population: The return of Malthus?". Some of the issues commented on are: 1) The connection between population and food supply; 2) Reducing unnecessary consumption could improve worldwide access to food; and 3) Practical solutions for the poorest countries.
New York, New York, Population Council, 2008 Jul 11.  p.This commentary sparked by the recent sharp rise in global food prices touches on 1) The connection between population and food supply; 2) Reducing unnecessary consumption could improve worldwide access to food; and 3) Practical solutions for the poorest countries.
Liquid assets: How demographic changes and water management policies affect freshwater resources. Summary.
In: Liquid assets: How demographic changes and water management policies affect freshwater resources, [by] Jill Boberg. Santa Monica, California, RAND, 2005. xiii-xxiii.Demographic factors play an important role in environmental change, along with biophysical, economic, sociopolitical, technological, and cultural factors, all of which are interrelated. Recent demographic trends have sparked concern about the impact of the human population on a critical element of the natural environment - fresh water. In the last 70 years, the world's population has tripled in size while going from overwhelmingly rural to a near balance of urban and rural - a change that affects both how humans use water and the amount they consume. In the late 1980s, concern over a potential water crisis began to grow. Much of the resulting literature has taken an alarmist view. Numerous reports sensationalized the so-called water crisis without talking into account the local or regional nature of water resources and the relationship between supply and demand. A number of factors are cited to support the position that the earth is headed toward a water crisis. They include the following: the human population continues to grow; water withdrawals are outpacing population growth; per-capita water availability is declining; clean, potable water is less available worldwide. (excerpt)
Santa Monica, California, RAND, 2005.  p.Demographic factors play an important role in environmental change, along with biophysical, economic, sociopolitical, technological, and cultural factors, all of which are interrelated. Recent demographic trends have sparked concern about the impact of the human population on a critical element of the natural environment - fresh water. In the last 70 years, the world's population has tripled in size while going from overwhelmingly rural to a near balance of urban and rural - a change that affects both how humans use water and the amount they consume. In the late 1980s, concern over a potential water crisis began to grow. Much of the resulting literature has taken an alarmist view. Numerous reports sensationalized the so-called water crisis without talking into account the local or regional nature of water resources and the relationship between supply and demand. A number of factors are cited to support the position that the earth is headed toward a water crisis. They include the following: the human population continues to grow; water withdrawals are outpacing population growth; per-capita water availability is declining; clean, potable water is less available worldwide. (excerpt)
Studies of Tribes and Tribals. 2007 Dec; 5(2):85-95.The term "environmental refugees" describes a new kind of mass human casualty caused by negative ecological impacts during the last decades. It has been estimated that 25 million environmental refugees are on the move worldwide due to environmental problems, 50 million are left homeless by cyclones, floods and earthquakes, 90 millions are displaced by infrastructural projects. These figures are expected to increase sharply in the next few decades due to the impacts of global warming and the consequence of sea level rise by 2050. Yet, the unfortunate environmental victims are refused refugee status and are not granted assistance and protection by the international community. Why is the number of environmental victims on the increase? Why are they left unassisted? Who should be responsible for what they have been suffered from? What should be done to limit the hardship being suffered by environmentally displaced people? This paper will attempt to answer these questions. (author's)
Population and Development Review. 2007; 33(2):247-287.The goal of this article is to examine the determinants of the improvements in life expectancy in the developing world during the period after World War II. Recent estimates suggest that longevity has been a quantitatively vital component of the overall gains in welfare during the twentieth century, both within and across countries. From a research perspective, pinning down the factors determining the observed reductions in mortality may shed light on the interactions between health, human capital, and income, and on their relative importance for economic development and social change. From a policy perspective, it may help maximize the impact of future health interventions in countries that still lag behind in health improvements. In particular, this knowledge may be fundamental in designing policies to enable sub-Saharan Africa to recover from its present circumstances. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI], 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment, 2001 Oct.  p. (Overcoming Water Scarcity and Quality Constraints. Focus 9. Brief 1)Access to enough water of sufficient quality is fundamental for all human, animal, and plant life as well as for most economic activity. At the global level, plenty of water is available. But to meet the demand, water has to be supplied where and when it is needed. These spatial, temporal, and qualitative characteristics pose the greatest challenge to meeting the rising demand in all sectors. Water withdrawals are only part of the picture. Almost all uses put something back into the water that degrades it for other users. Water quality and competition between users are therefore critical issues for the future of water use. There is no single ?magic bullet? to solve these complex and interrelated problems. Increases in water supplies, and especially storage, are needed, but so is demand management, including not only economic instruments but also education and other efforts to change behavior. Appropriate technologies and institutions must both play a role. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI], 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment, 2001 Oct.  p. (Overcoming Water Scarcity and Quality Constraints. Focus 9. Brief 8)Groundwater problems emerging in many parts of the world reduce drought-buffer supplies, threaten environmental values, and increase risks for many of the world?s poorest people. Programs to improve public understanding and basic scientific information regarding the resource base and to encourage the evolution of groundwater management systems are essential. Furthermore, because many countries will need years to develop systems for managing groundwater, policies should encourage users to adapt to water scarcity conditions rather than attempt to solve water problems per se. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI], 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment, 2001 Oct.  p. (Overcoming Water Scarcity and Quality Constraints. Focus 9. Brief 2)Water for agriculture is critical for food security. However, water for irrigation may be threatened by rapidly increasing nonagricultural uses in industry, households, and the environment. New investments in irrigation and water supply systems and improved water management can meet part of the demand. But in many arid or semiarid areas--and seasonally in wetter areas--water is no longer abundant. The high economic and environmental costs of developing new water resources limit supply expansion. Therefore, even new supplies may be insufficient. Whether water will be available for irrigation so that agricultural production can provide for national and global food security remains an urgent question for the world. This brief examines the relationship between water and food production over the next 30 years using IFPRI?s IMPACTWATER model. This global model simulates the relationships among water availability and demand, food supply and demand, international food prices, and trade at the regional andglobal levels. The baseline scenario incorporates our best estimates of the policy, investment, technological, and behavioral parameters driving the food and water sectors. We then look at how faster growth in municipal and industrial (M&I) demand and slower investments in irrigation and water supply infrastructure would affect food production. (excerpt)
Response to "Malnutrition and dietary protein: Evidence from China and from international comparisons".
Food and Nutrition Bulletin. 2003; 24(3):291-295.The opportunity to comment on the paper by Jamison and his colleagues  is most welcome. My perspective, and biases, on the issues they discuss are based largely on work in pediatrics and community health in Turkey, Colombia, and Thailand during a period of 17 years. In addition, I was privileged to visit China in 1973 as a member of the Early Childhood Development Delegation, one of the earliest US delegations to visit China, when I was able to pay particular attention to growth in children under five years of age [2-4]. Nutrition, growth, and mortality in young children have been major concerns throughout my career. Dr. Jamison has studied health issues having to do with China for many years, and this is an interesting contribution. There is no need here to repeat the study design, but the three populations from which data were used for the study, must be mentioned. They include: Data from a sample of urban adults, aged 18 to 25 years, from 13 provinces of China, in 1979: information on average heights and weights for men and women and on average income and availability of energy and protein; Data from a sample of adult men and women from 64 rural counties: information on heights and weights plus data on income, energy availability, and protein share from 26 provinces, around 1983; Data from 41 populations of men and 33 populations of women in 40 and 32 countries, respectively: information on average heights, as well as income, energy, protein share, and ethnic group, around 1960. (excerpt)
Food and Nutrition Bulletin. 2001; 22(4):466-.Fortification of appropriate foods is an important component of a comprehensive food-based approach toward sustainable control of micronutrient malnutrition, particularly vitamin A deficiency disorders. There are several aspects to be considered and issues to be resolved before investing in food fortification. Key issues discussed by participants included the following: Need for food-consumption survey data to identify micronutrient problems, target groups for interventions, and appropriate food vehicle(s) that could be fortified, including staple foods, complementary foods, and post-weaning foods; Importance of evaluating risks of fortification versus doing nothing and communicating information to policy makers and the scientific community. (excerpt)
SAJCN. South African Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2003 Feb; 16(1):9-11.Good health is a vital input to, and outcome of, sustainable development. Good health can be achieved only by addressing the underlying and basic causes of disease. The modifiable causes of health and disease are environmental. The nature and quality of food systems, and therefore of diet and nutrition, are fundamental determinants of human health and welfare, and that of the whole living and natural world. Levels of environmentally determined diseases now amount to a global emergency, projected to become an irretrievable catastrophe. The triple burden now borne by almost all middle- and low-income countries of nutritional deficiencies, infectious diseases including HIV-AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis, and chronic diseases including cancer, heart disease and stroke, and often also the burden of violence, is too heavy for any country to bear. (excerpt)
World Watch. 2004 Sep-Oct; 14-17.A generation ago, human population growth became an explosive issue. Since then, it has largely disappeared from the media. But the consequences of still-rising population colliding with fast-rising resource consumption have in some respects worsened, and are bringing a whole new set of concerns. Forty years ago, the world's women bore an average of six children each. Today, that number is just below three. In 1960, 10-15 percent of married couples in developing countries used a modern method of contraception; now, 60 percent do. To a considerable extent, these simple facts sum up the change in the Earth's human population prospects, then and now. In the mid-1960s, it was not uncommon to think about the human population as a time bomb. In 1971, population biologist Paul Ehrlich estimated that if human numbers kept increasing at the high rates of the time, by around 2900 the planet would be teeming with sixty million billion people (that's 60,000,000,000,000,000). But the rate of population rise actually peaked in the 1960s and demographers expect a leveling-off of human numbers this century. (excerpt)
Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2002; 11 Suppl:S498-S509.Scale up 'we are what we eat' and nutrition is revealed as an aspect of world governance. The quality and nature of food systems has always tended to determine not only the health and welfare but also the fate of nations. The independence of nations depends on their development of their own human and natural resources, including food systems, which, if resilient, are indigenous, traditional, or evolved over time to climate, terrain and culture. Rapid adoption of untested or foreign food systems is hazardous not only to health, but also to security and sovereignty. Immediate gain may cause permanent loss. Dietary guidelines that recommend strange foods are liable to disrupt previous established food cultures. Since the 1960s the 'green revolution' has increased crop yield, and has also accelerated the exodus of hundreds of millions of farmers and their families from the land into lives of misery in mega-cities. This is a root cause of increased global inequity, instability and violence. 'Free trade' of food, in which value is determined by price, is imposed by dominant governments in alliance with industry when they believe they can thereby control the markets. The World Trade Organization and other agencies coordinate the work of transnational corporations that are the modern equivalents of the East India companies. Scientists should consider the wider dimensions of their work, nutrition scientists not least, because of the key place of food systems in all societies. (author's)
New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Oct. 52 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 647)The costs of primary commodity price instability are reviewed, and can be significant. Even with full commitment on both sides and stationarity of prices, international lending leads to nonstationary consumption. One-period futures improve smoothing, and a rollover plan is quite effective under first-order serial correlation. With sovereign (exporter) risk the above instruments are infeasible. But packages of simple bonds and put options can achieve smoothing qualitatively similar to, but less efficient than, the constrained optimal state-contingent contracts for Markovian price processes. Bonds and options have the practical advantage of greater potential liquidity than more complex contracts. (author's)
New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1992 Jan. 59 p (Center Discussion Paper No. 651)The steady state and transitional dynamics of two-sector models of endogenous growth are analyzed in this paper. We describe necessary conditions for endogenous growth. The conditions allow us to reduce the dynamics of the solution to a system with one state-like and two control-like variables. We analyze the determinants of the long run growth rate. We use the Time-Elimination Method to analyze the transitional dynamics of the models. We find that there are transitions in real time if the point-in-time production possibility frontier is strictly concave, which occurs, for example, if the two production functions are different or if there are decreasing point-in-time returns in any of the sectors. We also show that if the models have a transition in real time, the models are globally saddle path stable. We find that the wealth or consumption smoothing effect tends to dominate the substitution or real wage effect so that the transition from relatively low levels of physical capital is carried over through high work effort rather than high savings. We develop some empirical implications. We show that the models predict conditional convergence in that, in a cross section, the growth rate is predicted to be negatively related to initial income but only after some measure of human capital is held constant. Thus, the models are consistent with existing empirical cross country evidence. (author's)
Population and the environment: a cross-country exploration of deforestation in low income countries.
[Unpublished] .  p.In this paper we explore linkages between population growth and environmental degradation in low income countries, focussing on deforestation. The analysis is primarily based upon country-level data from 85 developing countries with 1990 populations of over one million, and is considered quite preliminary. At the outset it is important to acknowledge three major difficulties in examining these interrelations. First, the available data are suspect. We have used what appears to be the most comparable available data from various UN agencies and the World Resources Institute; however, environmental data are particularly weak for much of the developing world. In some of the developing countries, population and agricultural censuses--the major sources for cross-country data--are not regularly taken. Furthermore, rural populations are sometimes not separately reported by countries which do have a census. (excerpt)
New York, New York, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA], 2003 Mar. xiii, 57 p. (Population and Development Strategies No. 6; E/1000/2003)UNFPA fully supports multi-sectoral policies and population and development programmes designed to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Such policies and programmes need to take into account the linkages that exist between the different goals and the critical intervening role of population factors and reproductive health. Progressing towards the MDG targets, eradicating poverty and achieving sustainable development is dependent on making progress towards the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) goal of achieving universal access to reproductive health services. Population growth and dynamics are often associated with environmental degradation in terms of encroachment of fragile ecosystems, rapid and unplanned urbanization, as well as water and food insecurity. Population pressures tend to be highest in countries least able to absorb large increments of people, threatening sustainable development and resulting in deterioration in the quality of life. (excerpt)
Sustainable Development. 2000; 8(3):135-141.Neo-Malthusianism advocates 'population control' as the solution to all major global problems. While overpopulation is a serious problem, blaming the population growth in the South as the prime cause for the destruction of the environment is hypocritical. Rather than the 'bottom billion', it is the 'top billion' population from the 'affluent' West - and their 'effluence' - that is inflicting greater environmental injury to the earth. In the patriarchal system of free-market economy, aborigines and women are marked inferior. Given the strong preference for male children in many Third World countries, the statistics on 'missing girls' explain the sad situation of female infanticide and underreporting of female births. Most contraceptive research is aimed at women only. Furthermore, newly developed contraceptives would be first tested on poor women of colour, often without their knowledge or consent. However, after the 1994 Cairo Population Conference, reproductive rights and empowerment of women are recognized as key issues in controlling population growth. There must be a radical change and paradigm shift in policy-making at every level from subjugation and subordination to partnership in order to solve most of the world's problems. (author's)
[Arlington, Virginia], John Snow [JSI], Family Planning Logistics Management Project, 2001 Apr. 20 p.This document addresses issues related to supplying just one type of reproductive health commodity: contraceptives. It begins with an analysis of current and future global demand for contraceptives and lays out the strategies for meeting this demand in those developing countries that depend on supplies from foreign donors. It provides an overview of current and projected contraceptive use from 87 developing countries, and reviews the factors that contribute to the growing demand for contraceptive supplies.
Mississauga, Canada, World Vision Canada, . , 36 p.This activity and resources guide was produced for use with people aged 14-18 years old, although in many cases it can be adapted for use with adults and younger adolescents. Canadians need a better understanding of the developing world, the root causes of poverty, and the principles of lasting development. This guide will help teachers, educators, students, and youth group leaders in Canada go beyond the typical media images of hunger and poverty to see more clearly their connections to global issues of poverty, environmental degradation, and human justice. It is hoped that participating in the guide's activities will impart in participants a sense of global community, shared responsibility, and awareness of opportunities to act. Interactive, participatory exercises are one of the best ways to build empathy and awareness. Accordingly, this guide has a variety of challenging, participatory activities which can be adapted to particular settings.
Workshop report on human population dynamics and resource demand, 30 November - 1 December 1990. IUCN -- the World Conservation Union, 18th General Assembly, Perth, Australia.
Gland, Switzerland, IUCN, 1991. viii, 53 p.A report on a human population dynamics and resource demand workshop includes a discussion of 1) the ambiguities of sustainable development 2) implementing the principals of caring for the earth, 3) families, communities and sustainable use of natural resources with examples from Australia, Korea, Nepal, Colombia, and Burkina Faso, and priorities and followup action on population and natural resources. The Appendices contain brief accounts of the preassembly meetings, the workshop agenda, a list of participants, a concept paper on population and environment links, a resolution on human population dynamics and resource demand, a resolution on women and natural resource management, a report on the meeting on future orientations of The World Conservation Union's "women and the natural resource management program," and a list of papers available on request. Ambiguities pointed out, for example, by Dr. van den Oever were that population growth, which is a demographic phenomena, needs to be considered separately from resource consumption at high levels. Another distinction was made between decreasing the rate of population growth and stopping population growth entirely. Stable populations continue to grow until they become stationary. Another distinction was made between the demographic data available and the lack of similar data on natural resources such as trees, plants, or animals. Another, discussant, Professor Malin Falkenmark, noted the lack of attention paid to the single most important resource to sustain life, water. In order to implement principles of caring for the earth, universities and students must become more involved in advocacy and in the real world. Policy decisions are difficult to make in Pakistan. Americans think that their own over-consumption needs to be checked before they can interfere in developing countries. The priorities are population growth, dealing with the inequities between rich and poor, resource consumption, and not ignoring the southern developing countries while eastern Europe currently receives attention.