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The inter-relationship among economic activities, environmental degradation, material consumption and population health in low-income countries: a longitudinal ecological study.
BMJ Open. 2015; 5(7):e006183.OBJECTIVES: The theory of ecological unequal exchange explains how trade and various forms of economic activity create the problem of environmental degradation, and lead to the deterioration of population health. Based on this theory, our study examined the inter-relationship among economic characteristics, ecological footprints, CO2 emissions, infant mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates in low-income countries. DESIGN: A longitudinal ecological study design. SETTING: Sixty-six low-income countries from 1980 to 2010 were included in the analyses. Data for each country represented an average of 23 years (N=1497). DATA SOURCES: Data were from the World Development Indicators, UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database, Global Footprint Network and Polity IV Project. ANALYSES: Linear mixed models with a spatial power covariance structure and a correlation that decreased over time were constructed to accommodate the repeated measures. Statistical analyses were conducted separately by sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and other regions. RESULTS: After controlling for country-level sociodemographic characteristics, debt and manufacturing, economic activities were positively associated with infant mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, export intensity and foreign investment were beneficial for reducing infant and under-5 mortality rates in Latin America and other regions. Although the ecological footprints and CO2 emissions did not mediate the relationship between economic characteristics and health outcomes, export intensity increased CO2 emissions, but reduced the ecological footprints in sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, although export intensity was positively associated with the ecological footprints and also CO2 emissions, the percentage of exports to high-income countries was negatively associated with the ecological footprints. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested that environmental protection and economic development are important for reducing infant and under-5 mortality rates in low-income countries. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2002; 11 Suppl:S498-S509.Scale up 'we are what we eat' and nutrition is revealed as an aspect of world governance. The quality and nature of food systems has always tended to determine not only the health and welfare but also the fate of nations. The independence of nations depends on their development of their own human and natural resources, including food systems, which, if resilient, are indigenous, traditional, or evolved over time to climate, terrain and culture. Rapid adoption of untested or foreign food systems is hazardous not only to health, but also to security and sovereignty. Immediate gain may cause permanent loss. Dietary guidelines that recommend strange foods are liable to disrupt previous established food cultures. Since the 1960s the 'green revolution' has increased crop yield, and has also accelerated the exodus of hundreds of millions of farmers and their families from the land into lives of misery in mega-cities. This is a root cause of increased global inequity, instability and violence. 'Free trade' of food, in which value is determined by price, is imposed by dominant governments in alliance with industry when they believe they can thereby control the markets. The World Trade Organization and other agencies coordinate the work of transnational corporations that are the modern equivalents of the East India companies. Scientists should consider the wider dimensions of their work, nutrition scientists not least, because of the key place of food systems in all societies. (author's)
Consumers, the legal system and product liability reform: a comparative perspective between Japan and the United States.
New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1996 Mar. 46 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 759)A new Product Liability (PL) Act in Japan became effective in July, 1995. In the United States, congress passed, subject to the endorsement of the president, the legislation that limits the ceiling of compensations and punitive damages in PL cases. Thus, there seems to be a converging tendency between the Japanese system, which has relative emphasis on industrial interests and encouraged off-court settlements, and the U.S. system, which has relatively emphasized consumers' interest and encouraged litigation. A large difference exists between the United States and Japan, particularly in the number of suits about product liability. For example, within a half year after the enforcement of the new PL Act, only a single case was brought to court in Japan. This paper explains the legal content, the social background and the legislation process of the new PL Act in Japan. Using economic analysis, it clarifies the question of what the consequences are with the difference in legal systems on resource allocation in the two countries. (author's)
New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1996 Apr. 32 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 755)The most prominent exception to the cardinal 'most favoured nation' principle of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1947 is in its Article XXIV relating to Customs Unions (CU's) and Free Trade Areas (FTA's). This article required, first, the general incidence of the duties and regulations of commerce imposed by members of the CU with respect to trade with non-members shall not on the whole be higher or more restrictive than those that were applicable prior to the formation of CU or FTA, and, second, that substantially all the trade among members be free. Neither requirement was very operational, with the phrases 'general incidence' and 'substantially all' being difficult legal concepts to apply. The agreement of 1994 establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO) has made "general incidence" precise by defining it import-weighted average of height of barriers but without offering any rationale for the definition. Now that preferential trading arrangements such as FTA's are proliferating, reform of Article XXIV is of importance. This paper describes alternative approaches to the central question of common external tariffs of a CU. Taking off from the work of Kemp and Wan who showed the existence of a common external tariff of CU that keeps the welfare of non-members unchanged while revising that of the CU as compared to the situation prior to the formation of CU, it characterizes such as tariff structure for two leading benchmark examples as consumption-weighted average of pre-union and subsidies in the member countries. (author's)
New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Oct. 52 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 647)The costs of primary commodity price instability are reviewed, and can be significant. Even with full commitment on both sides and stationarity of prices, international lending leads to nonstationary consumption. One-period futures improve smoothing, and a rollover plan is quite effective under first-order serial correlation. With sovereign (exporter) risk the above instruments are infeasible. But packages of simple bonds and put options can achieve smoothing qualitatively similar to, but less efficient than, the constrained optimal state-contingent contracts for Markovian price processes. Bonds and options have the practical advantage of greater potential liquidity than more complex contracts. (author's)
In: State of the world, 2004. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society [by] Brian Halweil, Lisa Mastny, Erik Assadourian, Christopher Flavin, Hilary French. New York, New York, W. W. Norton, 2004. 144-161.Citing the toxic contamination and forest destruction left behind by previous oil development operations elsewhere in the Amazon, the president of the Independent Federation of Shuar Peoples declared emphatically that "the Shuar and Achuar people of the Ecuadorian Amazon want it to be known that the position of our communities is no to oil exploration, no to dialogue and negotiation, no to deforestation, no to contamination, and no to all oil activities." These indigenous leaders provided a vivid reminder of the great but often hidden toll that consumption in the world's richest countries can take on distant peoples and places. The delegation's visit put a human face on the tendency of today's global economy to insulate consumers from the various negative impacts of their purchases by stretching the distance between different phases of a product's lifecycle--from raw material extraction to processing, use, and finally disposal. While sales of sport-utility vehicles have skyrocketed in the United States over the last decade, for instance, few if any of the new owners stop to ponder the connection between their recent purchase and the fate of indigenous peoples whose lives and livelihoods have been torn asunder in the push for petroleum. (excerpt)
In: State of the world, 2004. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society [by] Brian Halweil, Lisa Mastny, Erik Assadourian, Christopher Flavin, Hilary French. New York, New York, W. W. Norton, 2004. 96-119.In 1895, traveling salesman King Camp Gillette came up with the idea of disposable razor blades--a product consumers would have to keep coming back for again and again. Sales soon soared, reaching more than 70 million by 1915, and today Gillette his a company with $10 billion annual turnover. What started out as one business- man's high-profit vehicle for ensuring an endless stream of sales became a widely embraced concept of great endurance-- planned obsolescence. Fast-forward to the present: in mid-2003, the Walt Disney company announced that it would soon test-market a new DVD that is intended to replace rental video discs and cassettes and that stops working after a short, pre-set time. Opening the DVD's airtight package kicks off a chemical countdown that renders the disc unusable after a mere 48 hours. The sophisticated technologies involved may be strictly from the twenty-first century, but the underlying philosophy hews to that time-honored concept pioneered by Gillette and his contemporaries. (excerpt)
In: State of the world, 2004. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society [by] Brian Halweil, Lisa Mastny, Erik Assadourian, Christopher Flavin, Hilary French. New York, New York, W. W. Norton, 2004. 3-21.Consumption is not a bad thing. People must consume to survive, and the world's poorest will need to consume more if they are lead lives of dignity and opportunity. But consumption threatens the well-being of people and the environment when it becomes an end in itself--when it is an individual's primary goal in fife, for example, or the ultimate measure of the success of a government's economic policies. The economies of mass consumption that produced a world of abundance for many in the twentieth century face different challenge in the twenty-first: to focus not on the indefinite accumulation of goods but instead on a better quality of life for all, with minimal environmental harm. (excerpt)
Honolulu, Hawaii, East-West Center, 1986. x, 104 p.This report contains a review of the major developments in the Asia-Pacific region over the past quarter century, as well as examinations of the trends, issues, and challenges that will be critical to the region's future and to its relations with the US. The view of the region as an arena of internal and international conflict that prevailed in the 1950s and 1960s has been replaced in the 1970s and 1980s by a focus on the rapid economic progress of many of the countries. The region includes 56% of the world's population in 33 independent countries and several territories covering 19% of the world's land area. Part I of the report comprises 2 broad overviews dealing with prospects for peace and continued economic progress. Chapter I examines encouraging trends and continuing problems in the political developments and international relations of the region, while Chapter 2 provides a brief survey of economic trends and challenges in the principal countries and country groups: the newly industrialized countries, the resource-rich Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, low-income southeast Asia, China, South Asia, and the Pacific island countries. Part II examines specific topic areas related to regional economic development which reflect current policy emphases at the East-West Center. Chapter 3 assesses the relationship between the world economy and economic development in the region and analyzes future prospects for external trade opportunities and access to capital. Chapter 4 discusses the connection between population growth and economic development, while also examining the demographic transition in the area, the role of family planning, and future demographic challenges. The influence of declining fertility on increased savings and improved education is explored. Chapter 5 assesse the longterm sustainability of the region's remarkable resource base, which is already under severe strain from the numbers of people requiring food, clothing, shelter, and fuel. The chapter demonstrates the conflict between shortterm exploitation of resources and policies that protect the resource base in the longterm. Chapter 6 reviews changing patterns of supply and demand for minerals and fuels, noting significant additions to supplies of some minerals in Oceania. Based on worldwide trends, access to minerals and fuels is not expected to be a constraint on economic development.
AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS. 1997 Mar; 41(1):1-17.During the 1980s, the European Union, the US, and Japan followed policies designed to limit the production of grain. In so doing, the production and stock of grain declined during the decade in developed countries. However, grain production increased in developing countries during the 1980s, causing the overall world supply of grain to grow faster than demand. International market prices for grain have been falling since the 1970s. Despite claims to the contrary, reputable studies of prospective food supply and demand indicate that there will be continued improvement in per capita food consumption, especially in the developing countries. It is highly unlikely that the factors which affect world food supply and demand can either stop the decline in real market prices for grain or result in more than a modest increase in world grain trade. While China may become a major grain importer, central and eastern Europe may become major net grain exporters who compete with traditional exporters. The likely future trend in real world grain prices is good news for urban consumers, but farmers in developing countries will have to continually adjust to the eroding prices of their product. The author discusses population and well-being since Malthus' first edition, the population growth rate as an unimportant factor in determining population well-being, negative population growth rates, recent world food developments, prospects for the future supply and demand of food, and implications for world trade.
MAJALAH DEMOGRAFI INDONESIA/INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY. 1993 Jun; 20(39):51-78.This paper shows the demographic prospect of population in the Eastern part of Indonesia, especially in four provinces: Bali, East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi and South East Sulawesi. The focus is on the sociodemographic characteristics of consumers in the region, and the implications for commerce. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (EXCERPT)
MAJALAH DEMOGRAFI INDONESIA/INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY. 1993 Jun; 20(39):1-30.This paper presents a mosaic of business opportunities arising from the different demographic characteristics of the provinces in the western part of Indonesia. The author discusses the total number of population, density, and per capita income to [shed] some light on the volume of the market. He also presents the business impact of the [changes] in fertility, mortality, and the...life style of those aged 40-64. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (EXCERPT)
Washington, D.C., Island Press, 1992. xiv, 289 p.Most discussions about the Earth and the future of the human species do not deal with their intimate and mutual bond with each other. This book provides a map for a sustainable future including how we must change our way of thinking; how we can and need to change ethics, government, and economics; and the prudence of conforming to the rules of nature. It points out clearly that humans must learn and adopt from nature the operating principles of a sustainable society: conservation, recycling, renewable resources, population control, and restoration. The book candidly informs us how human actions are now unsustainable. In its discussion on ethics, government, and economics, the book demonstrated how humans can apply the biological principles of sustainability to recreate a society which respects the Earth's limits and takes advantage of its opportunities. The last section looks at critical systems (e.g., agriculture, energy, and waste) which have become flagrantly unsustainable and how to turn them into lasting human activities that helps humans and the Earth. It provides examples of how its proposals have already been successfully implemented. For example, in 1974, utility officials chose to conserve energy demand in Osage, Iowa, rather than allow energy demand to increase, resulting in a lower price for natural gas and electricity, a free-of-debt status, and a savings of US $1.2 million/year for the local economy. Another example of a successful ecologically sound idea is conscientious consumerism or green products (e.g., recycled paper products and resource efficient products). In Sukhomajri, India, construction of small earthen dams to capture rainwater for irrigation use and cooperation from community members in restricting livestock grazing has saved its land from complete destruction by overgrazing and soil erosion (prior to this, vegetation was reduced 95%).
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION/MIGRATIONS INTERNATIONALES/MIGRACIONES INTERNACIONALES. 1990 Mar; 28(1):25-45.The author discusses the effect of remittances from workers in oil-producing states in the Arab world on macroeconomic development patterns in non-oil-producing regions. Consideration is given to the impact of remittances on consumption and domestic growth and their interrelationships with foreign exchange. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (ANNOTATION)
[Unpublished] 1989. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Baltimore, Maryland, March 30 - April 1, 1989. 30 p.The relationship of population to the Industrial Revolution is such that population density and economic development in the 18th and 19th centuries in Europe were causes of each other. Industrialized society allowed larger numbers of people to survive than did agrarian society. Greater agricultural yields produced by fewer people permitted more people for both non-agricultural activities and for creating demand for more products. The population in Europe during this period increased exponentially because of a plummeting death rate, higher marriage rates and birth rates, and increased life expectancy. The precise causes of these trends are still unclear, but changes in climate and rodent disease vectors and improved nutrition, transportation, and public health are cited. Contrary to accepted demographic theory, this increase in population density lead to the 1st permanent increase in living standards for the bulk of the population to above subsistence levels. Thus more people, wealthy and poor, were enabled to live. The Industrial Revolution was both a cause and a consequence of an exodus from farming. More consumers demanded better food, and thus created a demand for agricultural technology. Similar demand relationships appeared for energy development, physical and social capital, infrastructure, and social and political organization. Population density lead to better organized markets. Why an industrial revolution did not occur in China or India was probably due to serfdom and social immobility. Demographic change was an indispensable element woven into the fabric of the Industrial Revolution.
In: Programmes to promote breastfeeding, edited by Derrick B. Jelliffe and E.F. Patrice Jelliffe. Oxford, England, Oxford University Press, 1988. 344-8.This health problem caused by excessive marketing of breast milk substitutes has been termed a commerciogenic disease. Nutrition educators can curb the Market by understanding its functioning, using its own tools in social marketing of breast feeding, and monitoring compliance with the International Code for the Marketing of Breast-Milk Substitutes. The Market's strategy is to expand the artificialization and industrialization of the food supply. This is an amoral process: it may operate for the benefit or the detriment of consumer's health. The tools of the market are the mass-media, the distribution system, sales and promotion devices, price policies, sampling, research and evaluation. The most powerful or these is mass-media advertising, which has a profound impact on the behavior and value systems of the audience. New social policy initiatives involving mass-media access and nutrition-directed food policies are needed. Commercial advertising and marketing practices should also be regulated. The International Code for Marketing of Breast Milk Substitutes is an example of surveillance assigned to agencies that do not understand the Market. Although use of substitutes by mother's decision when needed is legitimate, inducement purely for commercial purposes is an anti-social act. Nutrition professionals must monitor the Code including food marketing practices, the market situation, use of advertising media, and sampling, demonstration and promotion practices, especially those done through the health care system, quality control of products, and distribution.
Luxembourg, STATEC, 1987 Dec. xx, 529 p.The 1987/88 Statistical Yearbook of Luxembourg contains data on a wide variety of topics organized into 23 chapters with data on economic and noneconomic topics specific to Luxembourg and a final chapter with a series of international comparisons. Each of the chapters and many of the tables and graphs contain introductory notes and explanations. The work opens with a listing of basic statistics followed by chapters on territory and climate and on population. The chapter on population includes subsections on evolution of the total population, the active population, natural movement of the population, migratory movement, and housing and households. The major section on economic statistics includes chapters on national accounts, agriculture and forestry, industry, artisanry, services, banks and credit, public finances, income and social security, consumption and prices, research and external economic relations. The section on noneconomic statistics includes chapters on accidents, anthropometry, culture and education, environment, justice, names and surnames of the national population, politics, religion, health, and sports.
In: Accelerating food production in Sub-Saharan Africa, edited by John W. Mellor, Christopher L. Delgado and Malcolm J. Blackie. Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1987. 23-38.Over the past 2 decades, of all the major regions of the Third World, sub-Saharan Africa has had the most rapid growth of population and the slowest growth of food output. Food production growth has depended more on growth in crop area and labor force and much less on yield increase and modern inputs compared to other parts of the world. Per capita food performance was particularly poor in West Africa, which accounts for nearly half of both the people and the production of basic food staples of sub-Saharan Africa. Self-sufficiency in food is a rare phenomenon in Africa. Based on UN projections, population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa will further accelerate in more than 60% of the countries, and the regional rate will substantially exceed 3% per year for the period 1980-2000. The proportion of the total population in the agricultural labor force decreased 5%, reaching 30% by the late 1970s. This decline requires either increased labor productivity in agriculture, decreased per capita consumption, or large increases in imports. Of course it is the latter that has ruled in Africa. The 2 relatively bright spots in food production were maize and rice. Millet and sorghum were the poor performers. The output of groundnuts in West Africa declined drastically by about 2% per year. About 80% of the growth in production of basic food staples in sub-Saharan Africa during the past 2 decades arose from an average increase of 1.4% a year in harvest area. During 1966-1980, total domestic utilization of basic food staples in sub-Saharan Africa increased an average of 2.2% a year. Food projections to the year 2000 suggest that filling the projected gap of basic food staples in sub-Saharan Africa from domestic production would require more than twice the 1.8% annual growth rate of 1961-1980. Such a rate is unlikely to be achieved. The data suggest the need for 1) radical acceleration in the growth rate for the inputs to modern agriculture; 2) a special problem of accelerating growth in West Africa; 3) a major role for maize and rice in future production growth; 4) and a major improvement in sorghum and millet production.
JINKOGAKU KENKYU/JOURNAL OF POPULATION STUDIES. 1987 May; (10):7-24.The author considers the impact of demographic aging in Japan on the social security system and on economic growth. It is argued that "First of all, as the cost of social security (including social services) increases remarkably at the earlier stage of ageing, the disposable (after tax) income and private consumption of the present labour force generation tend to increase at a lower growth rate than that of the GNP....Secondly if pension systems are based on terminal funding schemes, the ageing of the population increases savings (net increase of the amount of the pension funds) at the earlier stage of the ageing of the population. Thirdly, there is a time lag between the increase of social security benefits and the decrease in the personal savings ratio. The high ratio of savings and the shortage of aggregate demand as well as the high pressure for export in...recent Japan can partly be attributed to the above factors." Possible future economic scenarios as demographic ageing in Japan proceeds are described, and policies to avert anticipated problems are outlined. (SUMMARY IN JPN) (EXCERPT)
[Business demographics: a new market for demographers?] Business demographics: een nieuwe markt voor demografen?
BEVOLKING EN GEZIN. 1987 Dec; (2):43-67.The author discusses the value of business demographics for marketing and management in the private business sector. The demographic factors that are most pertinent to business planning are identified and include changes in age structure, compositions of the labor force and households, and mobility. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (ANNOTATION)
In: Problemas populacionales Peruanos II, [edited by] Roger Guerra-Garcia. Lima, Peru, Asociacion Multidisciplinaria de Investigacion y Docencia en Poblacion, 1986. 225-36.This work is an amplification of an article on food production and rural problems that appeared in the original volume of "Peruvian Population Problems" published in 1980. Because the problems identified 5 years earlier remain largely unchanged, this article contains additional ideas for improving production and distribution of foods, taking into account the unfavorable economic conditions and poorly developed internal market in Peru. There is a tendency for ministeries of agriculture to attribute production increases to good policy, while decreases are explained by poor weather or unfavorable international marketing conditions. Government policy influences production, but in statistical analyses and in policy decisions, climatic and market conditions each year should be objectively considered in order to avoid intentional or unintentional deception. Taking 1979 as the base year, agricultural production declined by 20% and livestock production by 1.4% in 1980. In 1981, production increases of 4.1% were achieved except in sugar cane, while in 1983 the increase was over 17% and in 1983 there was an 8.3% decline. Between 1980-84, Peruvian exports of coffee, sugar, and cotton amounted to nearly 1 billion dollars, but imports of foods amounted to 2 billion dollars. Foods imported were primarily wheat, maize, milk products, and soy beans. Dependence on food imports is a significant factor in food price increases. Apart from increasing the quantity of land under cultivation, there is a significant potential for increased agricultural production through improved productivity and commercialization, more complete utilization of products, and subproducts, and increased export of nontraditional agricultural products. Increases in productivity can be achieved by transferring to farmers the achievements of plant researchers. The costs of inputs necessary for the new agricultural techniques must not be excessive in relation to prices paid to growers, and the various institutions providing agricultural services must coordinate their programs. The purchashing power of the population must be increased if nutritional status is to improve. Efforts should initially be focussed on increasing production of foods that would otherwise be imported, including wheat, barley, maize, oils, milk products, meat, and on products for export. The food policy should address issues of availability of food, including a family planning program as a basic component; family income and food expenditures; physical infrastructure for community food supplies and services; nutrition education, basic sanitation, international food aid, and similar issues; development of institutions for community participation in food supply and distribution; and training of personnel to design and implement rural development and food policies.
ZEITSCHRIFT FUR BEVOLKERUNGSWISSENSCHAFT. 1987; 13(1):11-28.The author considers implications of anticipated global population growth, giving attention to economic conditions, the environment, education, employment, consumption, developing countries' trade balances, and economic development. The need for intensive family planning efforts in developing countries is stressed. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) (ANNOTATION)
[Using demographic statistics in market studies and specifically for the business planning] Utilisation des statistiques demographiques dans les etudes de marche et specifiquement pour les plans des entreprises.
In: Utilisation des statistiques demographiques au Cameroun. Actes d'une Seminaire tenu du 16 au 19 Juillet 1984 a Yaounde. Yaounde, Cameroon, Ministere du Plan et de l'Amenagement du Territoire, 1985 Jul. 308-32.This article assesses the potential use of demographic statistics in determining the volume and structure of consumption through market studies and the sources of demographic data used in market studies, and presents concrete examples of demographic data use in market studies in Cameroon. The age and sex structure of the population influences the availability of labor and the extent of the market for particular products, while the socioeconomic structure is related to income and purchasing power. Population movements of particular interest to business planning include rural-urban migration, change in the numbers of households or household size, and change in household budgets. Population growth, determined by prevailing patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration, is the most important determinant of total consumption of many products. The 3 major data sources for market studies are population censuses, demographic surveys, and civil registration systems. Censuses furnish exhaustive statistics on individual and collective characteristics for population units of all sizes, serve as bases for sampling studies, and are useful for study of population movement. Budget-consumption studies with demographic content are the usual method of determining effective consumption. The budget-consumption survey underway in Cameroon is expected to yield data on a wide range of household expenditures. A well-functioning civil registration system combined with accurate knowledge of migratory trends would permit calculation of the population growth rate. Concrete examples of market studies undertaken in Cameroon using available demographic data include a footwear manufacturer that used demographic data to help estimate the proportion of shoes to offer for different ages and sizes of feet, a producer of school notebooks who used data on population structure to determine the number of each type of notebook to produce, and a life insurance company which needed to structure rates to fit Cameroon, a country with few actuaries. A cigarette company and a brewery requiring data for planning of distribution and possible expansion are other examples of enterprises requiring demographic data. Limited availability of official statistics and out-of-date data forced each company to some extent to develop supplementary data collection systems.
Private production, collective consumption, and regional population structure: the interactions between public and private good provision as determinants of community composition.
JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE. 1986 Nov; 26(4):677-705.Theories of trade and migration explain the distribution of individuals among regions based on private good productivities. The theory of local public goods (LPG's) uses collective good consumption economies to explain the size and composition of communities. This essay combines the two theories, to explore regional population heterogeneity and stability. Assuming that individuals must consume and produce in the same jurisdiction, the paper examines the nature of efficient allocations, the tensions between the private and public incentives, the nature of the equilibrium (if any) which migration among jurisdictions will generate, and how such equilibrium will depend on tax rules for sharing the costs of the LPG. (EXCERPT)
International Demographics. 1986 May; 5(5):1-9.In 1964, at independence, Zambia's economic future looked brighter than that of most other developing countries. Its copper production accounted for 8% of total world production, and only neighboring Zaire outpaced it in the production of cobalt. Its Central Province around Kabwe held rich deposits of both zinc and lead; uranium deposits also had been found, but their projected yield remained undetermined. Since 1974, the decline in the price of copper and the increase in the price of oil have played havoc with Zambia's balance of payments. Copper, which accounted for 40% of the gross national product (GNP) and 98% of all foreign exchange in 1964, shrank to 12% of the GNP in 1978 while still generating most of the foreign exchange. As a result, imports were cut back markedly from $1.5 billion in 1973 to $690 million in 1983. Although this trend is beginning to make a U-turn, Zambia's economic situation is grave. In 1984 the GNP continued to register negative growth and inflation stood at 25%. With its urbanization rate doubling from 21% in 1964 to 43% in 1985, Zambia is now the most urbanized country south of the Sahara. Zambia's 1985 population is estimated to be 6.8 million. Between 1963 and 1969, the average annual population growth rate was 2.5: it was 3.1% between 1969-80. The current birthrate of about 48/1000 is expected to decline only marginally in the next 15 years, but the death rate is declining more rapidly -- from 19/1000 in the late 1960s to 15/1000 in 1985. Life expectancy is expected to rise from the current 51 years to about 58 years. As a result of the high growth rate, Zambia's population is young, with a median age of about 16.3 years. Traditional African values stress the importance of large families. Zambia's total fertility rate was 6.9 in 1985. According to the World Bank, only 1% of married women of childbearing age in 1982 used contraceptives. Although tribal links are weakening, Zambia still counts 73 officially recognized tribes. Together, they speak about 40 different dialects. Zambia now apportions over 15% of its national budget to education. Despite some noticeable progress, the public health structure remains deficient. Principal health problems include malaria, tuberculosis, and, in Northern Province and Luapula Province, sleeping sickness and river blindness. About 2/3 of the labor force, an estimated 2.2 million persons in 1982, still work in agriculture. Female labor force participation is lower in Zambia than in many African nations.