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Lancet. 2012 Jul 14; 380(9837):157-64.Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) have been studied from diff erent perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanization, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO2 emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanization have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO2 several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanization can have important eff ects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.
PNAS. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Early Edition.. 2010;  p.Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy–economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16–29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.
International Journal of Global Energy Issues. 1997; 9(4-6):237-55.This paper highlights consumption pattern differences across income classes in India, namely the top 10%, middle 40% and the bottom 50% of the population in rural and urban areas. The analysis is based on an input-output model that uses consumption expenditure distribution data from various sources. It examines direct and indirect demand on resources and carbon-dioxide emissions due to consumption of each of these income classes. Out of a total of 167 metric tons carbon (mtC) of carbon emissions in 1989-90, 62% was due to private consumption, 12% from direct consumption by households and remaining 50% due to indirect consumption of intermediates like power, steel and cement, while the rest was attributed to investment, government consumption and exports. The analysis reveals that the consumption of the rich is oriented more towards energy using sectors like electricity and transport, and uses relatively more resources in the form of minerals and metal products. The net effect is that the rich have a more carbon intensive lifestyle. The per capita direct and indirect emission level of the urban rich is about 15 times that of the rural poor and yet about the same as the world average. In a scenario where private consumption expenditure is expected to reach twice the 1990 level by 2010, carbon-dioxide emissions are projected to rise to 502 mtC. The low purchasing power of the poor results in their dependence on nature and the environment. This points to the conclusion that poverty is unsustainable. (author's)
In: Research papers on interrelationship between population growth in developing countries and global environment, Volume II. Tokyo, Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 1997 Mar 3. 37-53.This paper presents a report on the trend of energy consumption and CO2 emission in Thailand during the 1980s, when the country experienced rapid economic growth....The analysis...reveals the importance of modern economic activity as a determinant factor that basically regulates the environmental loads....It is certain that industrialization promotes the increase of fossil energy consumption, but at the same time, it is expected to decelerate deforestation caused by the expansion of farmland. (EXCERPT)
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1995 Dec; 21(4):849-65, 922-3, 925.The model linking environmental impact to population, affluence, and technology, or I = PAT, is reformulated in terms of households (i.e., I = HAT) as opposed to persons....Taking growth of global energy consumption as an example, the authors find that I = PAT attributes 18 percent of the annual increase (in absolute terms) over the period 1970-90 to demographic increase in more developed regions, whereas I = HAT attributes 41 percent because the number of households grew faster than the number of persons. The I = PAT and I = HAT models also give rise to substantially different projections of [carbon dioxide] emissions in the year 2100. The authors conclude that decomposition and projection exercises are sensitive to the unit of demographic account chosen. Until more is known about the nature of the many activities that give rise to environmental impacts, it would be unwise to draw far-reaching conclusions from one choice of model without a substantive justification of that choice. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
WASHINGTON POST. 1990 Dec 30; C2.Deforestation for fuel wood was on the rise again after 1973 oil price increases. Between 1976-86, the use of wood for fuel increased 35%. In 1987, 50% of the world's population were using wood for cooking and heating. 1.7 cubic meters/year of wood are burned. The energy use equivalent in oil would be 21 million barrels of oil/day. The example is given of Costa Ricans return to wood use from electric stoves after the oil price increases of 1979. Current high oil prices again can only mean greater wood use. The tobacco and tea industry have also switched to wood and then to dry products due to oil price increases. Past patterns of use coupled with increased population and higher inflation and debt means a greater impact. Deforestation for agricultural use in the 1990s is expected to be >370 million acres. 40-50 million acres/year are burned mostly for agricultural use, but the next largest use is for fuel wood. In the US, 20% of forests are used for fuel and the remainder for industry, while in developing countries, 95% of energy comes from biomass, usually wood. In India and China, animal and crop residues are used for fuel instead of for soil fertilization. Wood is also wasted to produce charcoal. Deforestation in Thailand may have resulted in a decrease in rainfall; erosion occurs when rain comes. Wood burning also contributes to increases in carbon dioxide which cause global warming. When plantings equal burnings, carbon levels remain constant. The present ration in Latin America is 10 trees cut to every 1 planted, in Asia the ratio is 5 to 1, in Africa 29 to 1. 1.5 billion people over cut forests, and 125 million either cannot find enough wood or cannot afford it; by 2000, 2.8 billion will be short of fuel wood. Biomass burning also contributes to buildup of methyl chloride, which adds chloride to the atmosphere and the destruction of the ozone layer. The amount released is estimated at 26% emitted by the Third World. Amazon forest burning should cease by 1995 and biomass burning reduced by 50% over the next 15-20 years. The return to wood means lower living standards. The hope is that technology will generate more efficient wood-burning stoves or replacement fuel.
Binghamton, New York, Food Products Press, 1992. xv, 444 p.The text is an expansive collection of information on everything related to global food production, agricultural production and processing and consumption, nutrition, and current food issues. Global food production includes information on world population and food production, global food production, global food marketing, and global food problems and foreign aid. 1) Global food production is further delineated by discussion about the croplands, changes in agricultural resources, photosynthesis, water resources, the changing atmosphere and its effect on crops, land productivity potential, managing agricultural production, and multiple dimensions of the world food problem. Annual world food production is 4 billion tons for a population of 5.2 billion, but 20% are hungry every day due to differences in production and distribution. Rapid population growth will reduce the productive food land/person by 50% form levels 35 years ago. The view is that new croplands will be expanded to meet the needs and more intensive farming practices bill be employed. New food processing techniques will be invented and adopted. Infrastructure development will contribute to an improvement. A smaller number of farmers will produce more food. 2) Agricultural production is discussed in terms of crop and plant production, animal production (livestock, wildlife, and insects), global fish and shellfish production, food processing industries, and food distribution and consumption and food and energy losses. Rates of food loss vary by country, i.e., 1-8% in the US but 25% in the former Soviet Union. A production value of >1 billion dollars would be derived from a 1% increase n yield. 3) Nutrition and the individual is concerned with the essential human nutrients and the consequences of malnutrition. 4) Current food issues pertain to biotechnology and agricultural production, chemicals in the food supply, global warming, and research, policies, and actions on world food. The appendix identifies career opportunities in international agriculture.
WORLD WATCH. 1991 Sep-Oct; 4(5):22-30.This article examines the struggle between developed and developing countries when it comes to reducing energy consumption and limit carbon emissions, necessary steps for averting global warming. Negotiators from across the world have begun discussing the issue, hoping to come to an agreement by next June, when the UN Conference on Environment and Development will meet in Brazil. Disagreement centers around the question of who is responsible for the greenhouse effect and who will pay to fix the problem. The report discusses energy consumption and its effects, the cost of producing energy, and possible ways of eliminating energy waste -- especially as it relates to the 3rd world. Currently, the industrialized world (along with the USSR and Eastern Europe) account for 70% of all carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption. Experts predict, however, that by the year 2025, the 3rd World will surpass the industrialized world in fossil fuel consumption. The author emphasizes the difference in energy use between the 2 regions: while people in developing countries burn wood and biomass to take care of basic necessities, much of the consumption in the developed world to goes towards luxuries and amenities. Inefficient power plants waste much of the energy consumed in the 3rd World. Although hundreds of billions of dollars could be saved annually by introducing energy-saving devices, skewed international lending, underpriced electricity, and the vested interests of the 3rd World industries work against such measures. The author explains that the technology necessary to significantly reduced carbon emissions already exists. Furthermore, 3rd World countries and most industrialized nations (with the exception of the US and the USSR) have agreed on the need to reduce carbon emissions.