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  1. 1

    The challenge of uncertainty: the unexpected occurrence.

    Nierenberg D

    Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):91-110.

    This paper will deal with some of the issues that create demographic uncertainty and some of the trends which are likely to shape demographics in the future. World population has dramatically swelled to over 6 billion people today, more than double the number in 1950, when it was about 2.5 billion people. But population growth has not been linear over time. During the last half of the XX century, the annual growth rate of world population has been at first increasing to the value of almost 2% around the end of the 1950s, then decreasing until the beginning of the 1960s. It reached the pick of 2.19% in 1963. Afterwards it started an endless downward trend. In 2004 it was estimated to be 1.4%. World population is likely to keep on increasing through the first decades of the XXI century, although at a less rapid pace. The United Nations Population Division has acknowledged the lack of continuity in the population growth rate since the mid-1990s by periodically adjusting its estimates of population growth to 2050. Why the uncertainty? This paper will first quickly consider some of the reasons which cause the demographic uncertainty - economic and political changes, consequences of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and of the improvements in girls' education levels. Second it will tackle some of the issues we should watch for in relation to population - aging populations, growing youth bulges in many countries, increasing urbanization in the developing world, spreading infectious diseases and rising consumption. It will end up providing reflections upon some prospective challenges for world population. (excerpt)
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  2. 2

    No product? No programme! The logistics of reproductive health supplies on conflict-affected settings.

    Crystal P; Ehrlich L

    Forced Migration Review. 2004 Jan; (19):18-19.

    The government of Angola is working with NGOs to initiate a series of aggressive HIV prevention activities and information campaigns. Twenty-five years of civil war, however, have robbed the country of its ability to procure enough contraceptives for these programmes, and even to guarantee a regular supply of essential medicines to meet other basic health needs of the Angolan population. A similar story emerges in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Condoms are rarely available, particularly in the east, where population movements, military presence and the use of rape as a weapon of war contribute to the increased transmission of HIV. An OCHA assessment of health facilities in Kinshasa found stock-outs of many basic medicines, especially those needed for safe motherhood programmes. And although family planning supplies can be found in many pharmacies, they are too expensive for most women. (excerpt)
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  3. 3

    World development report 1993. Investing in health.

    World Bank

    New York, New York, Oxford University Press, 1993. xii, 329 p.

    The World Bank's 16th annual World Development Report focuses on the interrelationship between human health, health policy, and economic development. WHO provided much of the data on health and helped the World Bank on the assessment of the global burden of disease found in appendix B. Following an overview, the report has 7 chapters covering health in developing countries: successes and challenges; households and health; the roles of the government and the market in health; public health; clinical services; health inputs; and an agenda for action. Appendix a lists and discusses population and health data. The report concludes with the World Development Indicators for 127 low, lower middle, upper middle, and high income countries in tabular form. All developed and developing countries have experienced considerable improvements in health. But developing countries, particularly their poor, still experience many diseases, many of which can be prevented or cured. They are starting to encounter the problems of increasing health system costs already experienced by developed countries. The World Bank proposes a 3-part approach to government policies for improving health in developing countries. Governments must promote an economic growth that empowers households to improve their own health. Growth policies must secure increased income for the poor and expand investment in education, particularly for girls. Government spending on health must address cost effective programs that help the poor, such as control and treatment of infectious diseases and of malnutrition. Governments must encourage greater diversity and competition in the financing and delivery of health services. Donors can finance transitional costs of change in low income countries.
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