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REVIEW OF INCOME AND WEALTH. 1998 Sep; 44(3):361-81.This paper analyses how consumption inequality within a fixed cohort grows with age using Japanese household microdata. Following the method developed by Deaton and Paxson (1994), we obtain the following results. First, consumption inequality starts to increase at the age of 40. Second, younger generations face a more unequal distribution from the beginning of their life-cycle. Third, half of the rapid increase in the economy-wide consumption inequality during the 1980s was caused by population aging, while one-third was due to the increasing cohort effect. The paper compares the above results with those of Deaton and Paxson. (EXCERPT)
RICERCHE ECONOMICHE. 1995 Sep; 49(3):179-205.A dynamic model of the demographic structure of Japan is summarized. It is capable of tracing the dynamic development of the Japanese population, including the distribution of families by age, sex, and marital status of the head, as well as by the number and age of children and other dependents. This model is combined with specification of the processes generating family income and consumption, and then used to generate the pattern of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation for the period 1985-2050 under alternative fertility assumptions. The results suggest that the saving-income ratio for Japan will increase slightly in the immediate future as the number of children per family declines sharply, and then falls moderately as the proportion of older persons in the population increases. Qualitative results depend critically on the labour force participation rate of older persons and on the probability of older persons merging into younger households. (EXCERPT)
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. 1991 Dec; 81(5):1,276-94.The effects of the changing U.S. age distribution on various macroeconomic equations are examined in this paper. The equations include consumption, housing-investment, money-demand, and labor-force-participation equations. There seems to be enough variance in the age-distribution data to allow reasonably precise estimates of the effects of the age distribution on the macro variables. (EXCERPT)
JINKOGAKU KENKYU/JOURNAL OF POPULATION STUDIES. 1987 May; (10):7-24.The author considers the impact of demographic aging in Japan on the social security system and on economic growth. It is argued that "First of all, as the cost of social security (including social services) increases remarkably at the earlier stage of ageing, the disposable (after tax) income and private consumption of the present labour force generation tend to increase at a lower growth rate than that of the GNP....Secondly if pension systems are based on terminal funding schemes, the ageing of the population increases savings (net increase of the amount of the pension funds) at the earlier stage of the ageing of the population. Thirdly, there is a time lag between the increase of social security benefits and the decrease in the personal savings ratio. The high ratio of savings and the shortage of aggregate demand as well as the high pressure for export in...recent Japan can partly be attributed to the above factors." Possible future economic scenarios as demographic ageing in Japan proceeds are described, and policies to avert anticipated problems are outlined. (SUMMARY IN JPN) (EXCERPT)
Family Planning Perspectives. 1988 May-Jun; 20(3):139-43.The issues surrounding fertility decline and demographic aging in Europe are discussed. The author asserts that "the numerical declines and older age structures anticipated offer two potential benefits: First, a period of lessened pressure from population growth could provide...an improved quality of life by bringing consumption patterns into better alignment with ecological reality. Second..., a shift in age structure could possibly result in reduced demands on resources and could, in fact, provide less support for the general ethic of economic growth itself." (EXCERPT)
[Business demographics: a new market for demographers?] Business demographics: een nieuwe markt voor demografen?
BEVOLKING EN GEZIN. 1987 Dec; (2):43-67.The author discusses the value of business demographics for marketing and management in the private business sector. The demographic factors that are most pertinent to business planning are identified and include changes in age structure, compositions of the labor force and households, and mobility. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (ANNOTATION)
Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1987. 10 p. (Population Research Leads No. 25)The Asian and Pacific region's decline in fertility and mortality over the past 2 decades has resulted in large shifts in the age composition of national populations, which affects planning in nearly every social and economic sector. For the region as a whole, the crude birthrate is estimated to have remained at 40/1000 population until about 1970, declining to 27/1000 in the 1980-85 period. This rapid decline in fertility has complicated population policy formulation and the integration of population factors into development planning. The demonstration that government programs could alter demographic trends meant that population no longer could be treated simply as an exogenous variable in development planning. The combination of previously high fertility and declining mortality, which particularly affected the survival rates of infants and children, resulted in a small increase in the proportion of the population of the region below age 15, from 37% in 1950 to 41% in 1970. By 1985, the latter proportion dropped to 35% because of declining fertility. Due to the previously high fertility and more recent declines, the proportion of the population in working-age groups increased from 56% in 1975 to 61% in 1985 and is projected to reach 65% by 2000. Providing employment for this rapidly increasing population of labor-force age is a major challenge for countries of the region over the next several decades. For those few countries in the Asian and Pacific regions who had low birth and death rates by 1960, the current issue is demographic aging. As the rate of population growth per se decreases in importance as a planning goal, other aspects of population, such as spatial distribution, take on more significance. The rising marriage age and organized family planning programs were the primary causes of fertility decline in the region, although the decline was limited in South Asia where large pockets of high fertility (a total fertility rate in the range of 5-7) remain. The contribution of rising marriage age to further fertility decline is approaching the limit, except in the countries of South Asia where the marriage age continues to be below 20 years. In most of the countries of the region, the potential also exists for a 2nd generation "baby boom" resulting from a changing age structure. This would in turn slow down the pace of fertility decline unless compensated by a rapid fall in fertility of younger married women caused by successful implementation of family planning programs and other associated socioeconomic changes. Aside from the straightforward implications of demographic change, changes in age structure also imply changes in consumption patterns. Thus, planning for production, consumption, investment, and distribution always should incorporate changes in age structure.
[Socioeconomic consequences of the aging of the population] A nepesseg oregedesenek nehany tarsadalmi--gazdasagi osszefuggese
Statisztikai Szemle. 1986 Feb; 64(2):109-21.The author addresses some of the economic and social implications of the aging of the population in Hungary. The study is based on a paper prepared within the scope of the project on Economic and Social Implications of Changing Age Distribution in Selected ECE Eountries carried out by the Secretariat of the UN Economic Commission for Europe (Population Activities Unit, GEAD) with support from the UNFPA. The 1st part of this study outlines the demographic characteristics of the aging process. In the 2nd part of the paper, various kinds of dependency ratios are presented, and changes in the age distribution of the working age population are reviewed. To estimate the influence of aging on the level of total consumption, age profiles of consumption are applied, and changes in the costs of selected social services are assessed through age-cost profiles of education, health services, and old age pensions. (author's) (summaries in ENG, RUS)
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore. 1985 Oct; 14(4):709-13.Trends in demographic aging in Singapore are reviewed. The causes of demographic aging are first reviewed. The situation in Singapore is then considered, and changes since 1947 and projected changes up to 2070 in the age distribution of the population are described. "Some of the more significant consequences in the areas of level of living, consumption pattern, savings, labour shortage, and ageing work force are discussed briefly." (EXCERPT)
In: Economic consequences of population change in industrialized countries: proceedings of the Conference on Population Economics held at the University of Paderborn, West Germany, June 1-June 3, 1983, edited by Gunter Steinmann. New York, N.Y./Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of, Springer-Verlag, 1984. 168-178. (Studies in Contemporary Economics Vol. 8)The economic impact of recent demographic changes in developed countries, particularly declining fertility, increasing divorce, delayed marriage, and demographic aging, is assessed. The focus is on household consumption behavior, with an emphasis on how declining fertility affects the level and growth rate of total and per capita consumption and consumption distribution. The importance of technological change and of age factors is noted. (ANNOTATION)
[Indexes for the evaluation of the effects of demographic aging: a critical examination] Indices pour evaluer les effets du vieillissement demographique: examen critique
Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie. 1982 Dec; 11(3):323-49.This article includes a description and comparison of the various ways to measure the burdens imposed on society by the process of demographic aging. In addition to the purely demographic concept of the percent elderly in the total population, other concepts are considered, including labor force participation, government expenditures, and the total of private and public consumption. The relative merits of these indicators are assessed. The geographic focus is on Canada and other industrialized countries. (ANNOTATION)
Laxenburg, Austria, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1983. viii, 57 p. (WP-83-17)Add to my documents.