This volume, a Spanish version of the original French-language demographic dictionary compiled by Roland Pressat, contains defined demographic terms arranged in alphabetical order together with a Spanish-French and French-Spanish dictionary of terms. A system of cross-references to other relevant terms listed in the dictionary is also provided. (ANNOTATION)
The antilogistic function and method of simple substitution (deduced from projecting trends in technological development) are applied to the analysis of the demographic transition using data concerning Poland and Sweden from the eighteenth century to the present. (ANNOTATION)
Population registers: some administrative and statistical pros and cons.
The advantages and disadvantages of introducing a central population register are discussed in the context of the United Kingdom. The discussion covers a range of issues, including "justice, fairness, freedom, privacy, efficiency, the fight against crime and fraud, and relations between the government and the community." The author describes the use of population registers in other European countries, the statistical implications of better population registers, the various population records that do exist in the United Kingdom, and the proposal to introduce identity cards in Australia. A summary of a discussion that took place following presentation of the paper at the Royal Statistical Society is included (pp. 28-41). (EXCERPT)
Rural mobility in Java: the village economy and the rest of the world.
The effect of internal migration on rural populations in Central Java, Indonesia, is analyzed. The focus is on the relationship between the village and the outside world and how it affects the type and patterns of migration that occur. The data were collected in May 1985 in interviews with persons leaving or entering one village. (ANNOTATION)
These are the proceedings of a conference on migration from Europe to Brazil, held in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in August 1985. The papers, which are in Italian, French, or Portuguese, are grouped under three main headings. The first section has nine papers that deal with socio-juridical issues, focusing on immigration policy, the treatment of immigrant workers, illegal immigration, and cultural and scientific cooperation between countries of origin and destination. The second section includes nine papers on European immigration to Brazil, primarily from Italy, from 1824 to 1980. The third section contains seven papers on socio-anthropological topics, including ethnic minorities in Brazil, cultural aspects of immigration, and the impact of immigration on agriculture.
This is a demographic analysis of the modern family, with a focus on France. The author's main hypothesis is that since the end of World War II, there has been a change from the situation where the family was governed by the need to survive to a situation where individuals are able to make choices concerning the family in accordance with their personal preferences. The consequences of this change are analyzed, particularly in regard to the reproduction of society and to possible government responses. (ANNOTATION)
[The age groups outside of the labor force: social and demographic aspects]
An analysis of the population outside the labor force in the USSR is presented. This population consists of those too young or too old to work. The focus is on the state's provision of resources to this dependent population and on the availability of social services. (ANNOTATION)
A reconstruction and projection of demographic movements in the RSA and TBVC countries.
An attempt is made to develop population estimates and projections for the four major population groups in South Africa from 1936 to 2005 using official data. The data concern the Republic of South Africa and the independent black homelands of Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda, and Ciskei. The estimates and projections are presented for whites, blacks, Asians, and Coloureds by age-group and sex by five-year intervals. Data are also included on abbreviated life tables and are presented separately for the South African-born and foreign-born black populations. (ANNOTATION)
[Population projections of the country by province for the period 1970-1995]
Population estimates and projections are presented for Angola from 1970 to 1995 for provinces and for the urban population of provinces. Data are from various sources, including the census carried out in some provinces in 1983 and 1984. (ANNOTATION)
[Spaniards to America: mass emigration, 1880-1930]
This work, which is the product of a series of conferences held in Spain between 1984 and 1987, is a compilation of studies by various authors concerning migration from Spain to the Americas from 1880 to 1930. An introductory chapter gives a general overview of migration in this period, during which some 4 million Spaniards migrated to the Americas. The first part contains eight papers on emigration as it affected the various regions of Spain. The second part presents six papers on the situation in the countries of immigration, including Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Puerto Rico, and Mexico.
Landmarks in Australian population history.
"This volume represents the Australian Population Association's contribution to the celebrations surrounding the two-hundredth anniversary of European settlement in Australia. The volume was conceived as a compendium of the best and most significant pieces of writing on Australian population history." The organization of the material is chronological and presents a demographic history of Australia, covering such topics as aboriginal population, colonization, immigration, vital statistics for several time periods, economic development, demographic factors, and population characteristics. Also included are articles on population growth, the carrying capacity of Australia, family demography, postwar Australia, migration policy, and future trends. (EXCERPT)
[The National Sample Survey of Households [PNAD] in focus: the 1980s]
This book contains nine papers presented at a seminar on the use of data obtained in Brazil's National Sample Survey of Households (PNAD). Subjects covered include education, the work force, employment, income, welfare, mortality, fertility, contraception, and the situation of children and adolescents in Brazil. (ANNOTATION)
Practical uses of demographic models.
"This review will examine the life table and its extensions, including multistate life tables and stable populations, and consider their uses in describing and estimating demographic behavior." The logical structure and central concepts of demographic modeling are explained. (EXCERPT)
"We compared two methods of ascertaining mortality in a historical prospective mortality study. Computerized Record Linkage (CRL) with the centralized historical Canadian Mortality Data Base (CMDB) was carried out on 2,469 men and an attempt was also made to trace the subjects by individual follow-up (IFU). All but 88 were traced and 60 were reported to be dead....Overall, CRL using the CMDB performed very well. We also consider factors that affect the relative costs of the two methods, which should be balanced against the accuracy of information obtained." (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)
Afghanistan: the decimation of a people.
The demographic impact of the war in Afghanistan is analyzed, using data from surveys conducted among the refugees in Pakistan in 1987. The data indicate that by the end of 1987 approximately nine percent of the population had been killed during the war, totalling between 1 and 1.5 million persons. Consideration is given to trends in mortality over time, the demographic characteristics of those killed, emigration, and geographical differences in war-related mortality. (ANNOTATION)
Method and confusion in the study of the household: a review.
A critical review is presented of the study by Steven Ruggles entitled Prolonged Connections: the Rise of the Extended Family in Nineteenth-Century England and America. The debate concerns the evidence for the prevalence of the nuclear family in the past. (ANNOTATION)
[Procreative attitudes of newly married couples]
Results are presented from a 1985 survey conducted among newly married couples in Poland concerning ideal and planned number of children. Both husbands and wives participated in the survey. Comparisons are made with results from a previous survey undertaken in 1975. (ANNOTATION)
Sixteenth-century depopulation: a view from the Mohawk Valley.
An attempt is made to analyze demographic trends among the American Indian population of the Mohawk Valley in the sixteenth century using archeological methodology. Specifically, the method employed uses an average number of square meters per Mohawk village inhabitant to estimate total village population size from the area of the village. The impact of epidemics, warfare, and emigration on population trends is discussed. (ANNOTATION)
[Projection of the population in Czechoslovakia to the year 2010 and the economic consequences]
A projection of the population of Czechoslovakia up to the year 2010 is presented, with emphasis on changes in the age distribution and in the available labor force. (ANNOTATION)
The impact of divorce on suicide in Norway, 1951-1980.
"The present study does a comparative analysis of a well-substantiated relationship based principally on American-based research: that between marital integration and suicide....Specifically, it tests the generalizability of the divorce-suicide relationship" in Norway using data for the period 1951-1980. Despite institutional and cultural buffers in Norway thought to account for a historically low suicide rate, the author finds the recent rise in the suicide rate to be related to destabilizing trends in family life. Data are from the World Health Organization and other official sources. (EXCERPT)
Burning widows, burning brides: the perils of daughterhood in India.
"Indian women are subjected to intense economic and social discrimination, and continue to suffer death rates that are well in excess of male rates, despite forty years of independence in a secular democracy with universal suffrage. Certain practices, such as sati and dowry have spread from high status Hindu groups across social boundaries. This paper traces the evolution of these practices and argues that the peculiarity of Indian civilization that enables the general devaluation of the female sex to be taken to such extremes lies in the inferior social power of the families of girls and women, and the consequent insistence on universal female marriage." (EXCERPT)
An introduction to the Public Use Sample of the 1910 U.S. census of population.
"This paper is a brief introduction to the Public Use Sample (PUS) from the 1910 United States Census of Population that was created at the University of Pennsylvania and recently released to the public." It contains a 1-in-250 sample of the total population included in the census, producing a total of 88,814 households and 366,239 individuals. The 1910 PUS is available in machine-readable form from the ICPSR at the University of Michigan. (EXCERPT)
[Population and housing census, 1985. Part 8: income]
Income data from the 1985 census of Sweden are presented for the whole country, metropolitan areas, and counties, and concern the population over age 16 by income and sector of employment and industry, sex, country of birth, age, and marital status. Data are also provided for households. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (ANNOTATION)
[England's population during the three centuries before the demographic transition]
An attempt is made to analyze demographic trends in England between the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries, the period before the demographic transition. The focus is on long-term population changes and on the factors tending to reduce fertility. Consideration is given to English family structure and its impact on fertility, social aspects of demographic trends, and the development of a system of social support for the indigent. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS) (ANNOTATION)
[Dynamics and conditions affecting female mortality]
Female mortality in Poland is analyzed for the period 1960-1985. The analysis is presented separately for women aged up to 24, 25 to 59, and over 60 years of age. Comparisons are made with male mortality for the same period and age groups. Consideration is also given to causes of death. (ANNOTATION)
[Econometric models of changes in specific death rates of adults in Poland for the period 1960-1983]
The author presents death rates for the adult population by age, sex, and place of residence to show changes in mortality for the years 1960-1983. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS) (ANNOTATION)
[Divorces in the Netherlands, 1950-1987]
Trends in divorce in the Netherlands are analyzed from 1950 to 1987 using official data. The data show a steady increase in the number of divorces up to 1985; a decline in the number of divorces for 1986, 1987, and 1988; and a probable rise again in 1989. The impact of the growing popularity of consensual unions on the divorce rate is considered. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (ANNOTATION)
Resettlement experiences and alternatives in Thailand.
Problems concerning the resettlement of those made homeless by the construction of dams to create reservoirs in Thailand are considered. The authors attempt "firstly, to examine the rationale for spontaneous and planned resettlement in Thailand. Secondly, the determinants of the success or failure of resettlers are explored with reference to selected planned resettlement projects. Finally, resettlement alternatives for prospective reservoir evacuees are proposed." (EXCERPT)
[Ethnodemography in Southeast Asia]
Demographic trends in Southeastern Asia from the nineteenth century to the present day are analyzed. The author's main theme concerns the region's demographic evolution from a number of small, relatively separate populations to the highly populated, ethnically diverse nation-states of today. Data are from a variety of nineteenth-century sources. (ANNOTATION)
[A regional perspective in population study--based on national consumption expenditure surveys].
The author examines "regional characteristics of population in [Japan] from the standpoint of consumption behavior and [assesses] the significance of 'regionality' in population study. Data [are from] the National Consumption Expenditure Surveys conducted...every five years...from 1959-1984." Topics covered include differences in household consumption and expenditures, particularly food expenditures, by prefecture and for rural and urban areas, and regional similarity indexes. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (EXCERPT)
"This review summarizes recent changes in the population size and composition of England and Wales, placing particular emphasis on changes between 1986 and 1987. Reference is also made to statistics for the United Kingdom as a whole and for Scotland and Northern Ireland where appropriate." Separate consideration is given to trends in mortality, abortion, marriage and divorce, fertility, and migration. (EXCERPT)
Demographic review, 1984: a report on population in Great Britain.
This is the second in a series of periodic demographic reviews for the United Kingdom, and covers the period up to 1984. The data are primarily for England and Wales, with some data for Scotland and for Great Britain as a whole. Chapters are included on the structure and distribution of the population, mortality, births and fertility, the foreign-born population, and ethnic minorities. The focus is on changes occurring during the decade 1971-1981. (ANNOTATION)
County population estimates: July 1, 1987, and 1986.
"This report presents estimates of the total population as of July 1, 1987, and revised estimates for July 1, 1986, for 3,138 counties and equivalent areas in the United States...." 1980 census data for county populations are also included. (EXCERPT)
Marital status and living arrangements: March 1988.
"This report presents detailed statistics on the marital status and living arrangements of the noninstitutional population of the United States based on the March 1988 Current Population Survey. The statistics are presented by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and, in some instances, by metropolitan residence and region." (EXCERPT)
[Population: growth and decline]
This is a collection of six papers by various authors on aspects of the demography of the Netherlands and Flanders, the Dutch-speaking region of Belgium. The first paper examines the second demographic transition that seems to have occurred in Western Europe since the mid-1960s, involving below-replacement fertility levels, changes in marriage and family building patterns, and an overall population decrease. Comparisons are then made with the first demographic transition. Papers are also included on a comparative analysis of mate selection in Belgium and Flanders, the impact of changes in marriage and the family on the child, the contraceptive revolution, and the family and household life cycle. A final paper considers appropriate population policies for these changing demographic conditions. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
The author describes various model life tables, including those that have been developed by the League of Nations, the United Nations, and at Princeton University by Coale and Demeney. The relative merits of the various models are discussed. (ANNOTATION)
Population trends in Yugoslavia since World War II are analyzed using census and vital statistics data, including the 1981 census. Data are included on population and households, natural increase and migration, and population characteristics. Most of these data are presented in the form of figures and diagrams for constituent republics and autonomous regions. Comparisons with other countries are included. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (ANNOTATION)
Sexual maturation of Mexican-American adolescents.
"The sexual maturation patterns of 1,403 Mexican-American adolescents are described. The report is based on data from the Hispanic Health and Examination Survey...,which was carried out by the National Center for Health Statistics from 1982 to 1984. Ages of subjects ranged from 10 through 17 years....Comparison of median ages at entry [into puberty] to results from studies around the world reveals that Mexican-Americans begin and end puberty a few months later than is usual." (EXCERPT)
[Has a thaw set in? Concerning demographic trends and social policy]
The author suggests that, thanks to perestroika, some positive changes in demographic trends are occurring in the USSR. These include an increase in life expectancy since 1985, particularly for men. Although infant mortality has not changed significantly, the birth rate increased substantially in 1986 and 1987. An analysis of current social policy concerning the family and various population subgroups is included. (ANNOTATION)
[The family--object of demography]
The family in the USSR is analyzed in terms of its role as the basic unit of human reproduction and the laws governing that process. The author examines the typology of families, family characteristics, the family life cycle, family stability, family size, and the formation of young families. Data are from the censuses of 1970 and 1979 and special surveys. (ANNOTATION)
A statistical profile of U.S. households is presented using data from the Current Population Survey. Consideration is given to the number and structure of households, and the median household income for different age cohorts. (ANNOTATION)
How the 1991 census should improve government statistics.
"The purpose of this article is to draw attention to one or two special features of the plans for the 1991 [United Kingdom] Census which should improve the use and usefulness of the results." These changes concern the use of postal codes; efforts to achieve a more complete population base; the counting of dwellings, housing quality, one-parent families, hours of work, chronic illness, and ethnic groups; and output from the census. (EXCERPT)
Marriage and intermarriage in Belgium: indications culled from registration data.
Using nationality-specific census data, the author examines nuptiality patterns of natives and foreigners in Belgium for the period 1947 to 1985, with a focus on intermarriage between the two groups. An increase in the incidence of such marriages is noted. (ANNOTATION)
The causes of rapid infant mortality decline in England and Wales, 1861-1921. Part II.
Reasons for the rapid decline in infant mortality at the beginning of the twentieth century in England and Wales are explored. "In Part I we presented a detailed demographic analysis of the pattern of infant mortality variation over time and through space, by type of environment (especially urban and rural), and by social class. In Part II we consider the approach of contemporaries to the infant mortality problem, but especially that of Sir Arthur Newsholme. It concludes by presenting an interpretation of the origins of infant mortality decline in terms of the prior decline of fertility, but also of the supporting role played by improvements in the quality of milk; the availability of more highly qualified midwives; the institution of ante-natal care and the post-natal health visitor service; as well as advances in the education of mothers in particular, and women in general." (EXCERPT)
[First results of the population census, 1987]
Preliminary results are presented from the 1987 population census of the Federal Republic of Germany. Information is included on changes in population size by state since 1970, the aging of the population, increases in the number of foreigners, changes in religious affiliation, labor force participation, and housing. (ANNOTATION)
Coexistence and separation of two residential groups--an interactional spatial dynamic approach.
"This paper is concerned with the spatial and temporal distribution of residents in an urban area. The residents are classified into two groups, that is, black and white, according to their characteristics. A dynamic model is built to explain how the residents are distributed over time and space. The model consisting of a set of partial differential equations is similar to competition-diffusion equations in biology. We investigate conditions of coexistence and separation of the two groups." (EXCERPT)
The impact of income redistribution on fertility in Canada.
This paper speculates on the role of income redistribution as a means of raising fertility in Canada. It is argued that if the relationship between income and fertility is non-linear at the household level, then changes in the income distribution in a society have important consequences for changes in aggregate fertility. In order to test this hypothesis, a simple fertility model is estimated using micro-data collected in the 1981 Canadian Census. The relationship between income and fertility is found to be nonlinear with properties that indicate that transfers of income from "rich" to "poor" households will likely further depress the overall level of fertility in Canada. (author's)
Electrolyte profile of Malaysian mothers' milk.
The influence of socioeconomic status (ethnicity, income, and parity) on electrolyte composition (sodium and potassium) in human milk is little known. The authors have thus quantitatively analyzed approximately 700 samples of milk (1-90 days postpartum) obtained from healthy Malaysian mothers (Malay, Chinese, and Indians) of full-term infants. Results show that the mean concentration (mmol/1) of sodium is highest 48.2 +/- 1.7; mean +/- SEM) in the Malaysian mothers' colostrum and this value decreased by 30% in their transitional milk and remained constant throughout subsequent days of lactation. Ethnically, it is found that the level of sodium in colostrum of Malay and Chinese mothers was similar but the Indian mothers' colostrum showed apparently higher value (52.7 +/- 3.4 mmpl/1) that is statistically insignificant. The transitional milk of all 3 ethnic groups studied exhibited similar levels of sodium. On subsequent days of lactation (mature milk) the Malay mothers exhibited the lowest concentration (25.9 +/- 2.6 mmol/1) of sodium that is significantly (p < .05) different from that of Chinese and Indian mothers. Income and parity do not significantly affect the sodium level in Malaysian mothers' milk during all stages of lactation studied. The level of potassium, however, did not change significantly with days of lactation. Like sodium, potassium too was not influenced by income and parity. (author's)
Disease and pregnancy in adolescent girls.
The frequency of visits to the outpatient clinic, chief complaints, and pregnancies of adolescent girls were analyzed. The age distribution of adolescent girls who visited the clinic showed that the higher the age, the higher the frequency of menstrual cycle abnormalities. Recently, increased sexual activity has been seen in teenagers and has caused problems, especially the increase in teenage pregnancies, contributing to increases in induced abortion. To avoid unwanted pregnancy of unmarried teenagers, intensive sex education is essential, as well as provision of contraceptives. (author's)
This conference was the 1st in nearly 4 years to be held for the Bureau for Africa health, population, and nutrition officers and was the first time in 7 years that this conference has been held in Africa. 1 major concern of this conference was the new $500 million Development Fund for Africa, which had been evolving over the last 18 months and became law as part of the Agency for International Development (AID) Continuing Resolution before the conference. The conference was held from March 20-23, 1988. It opened with a discussion of the Development Fund for Africa and contributed a portion of the last day to its further discussion. March 21 focused on population and family planning and March 22 was devoted to health and nutrition issues. Discussion of population and family planning issues began with an overview by Duff Gillespie, Agency Director for Population. This was followed by 5 country reports and 3 panels on increasing emphasis on more effective contraceptive methods, developing new ways to deliver services, and achieving a degree of program sustainability. The sessions on health were opened by Charles DeBose, Regional Health Officer, REDSO/WCA, and were divided equally between child survival activities in Africa and AID's response to the Acquired Immunodeficiency syndrome emergency in Africa. On the final day there were also several presentations covering topics of general interest to health and population officers. Every conference participant was assigned to 1 of 6 Working Groups: Population/Family Planning Strategy, Child Survival Strategy, HIV/AIDS, program sustainability, private enterprise and private voluntary organizations, and human resource development. The groups presented their conclusions and recommendations at the closing session. Special ad hoc committees were established to make recommendations for AID/Washington in the areas of personnel issues, "orphan projects," and Sahel projects.
Manual: cost-effectiveness of training modalities in population education.
This manual is the output of a Regional Training Workshop on the Cost-Effectiveness of Different Training Modalities in Population Education which was organized by the Unesco Principal Regional Office in Asia and the Pacific in Kathmandu, Nepal, on June 1-8, 1987. 10 participants and resource persons from China, India, Nepal, the Philippines, and Thailand took part in the workshop. The manual is a simplified presentation of how project staff of country projects can carry out studies on the cost-effectiveness of different training modalities used in population education programs. The 7 chapters deal with 1) training modalities in population education, 2) cost-effectiveness: concept and process, 3) design and instrumentation, 4) data analysis and interpretation, 5) managerial considerations in cost-effectiveness study, 6) guidelines for preparing a research proposal, and 7) sample research proposal and prototype instruments.
An annotated questionnaire to explore the socio-economic consequences of family size in Thailand.
This paper makes available an annotated version of a questionnaire developed as part of a project on the socioeconomic consequences of fertility decline for Thailand in the hopes that it will be of assistance to other researchers interested in conducting related studies. The goal of the project is to gain an understanding of the perceived and objective socioeconomic consequences of the recent decline in fertility for families in rural Thailand. The project involves a survey component (with couple and community questionnaires) but also open-ended discussions with key informants and focus group discussions with survey respondents. The survey took pace in 1) the northern province of Lamphun and 2) the central province of Suphanburi. The questionnaire includes questions on 1) households, 2) general background, 3) couples' parents, 4) perceived effects, 5) reproductive history, 6) children's schooling, 7) sources of livelihood, 8) wealth assessment, 9) wife's employment, and 10) selected questions from the community questionnaire.
Infant mortality in socially vulnerable populations.
Studies have shown for decades that certain subpopulations of infants, for example, those in poverty and certain minority groups, are at substantially higher risk for illness and death than the national average. If mothers and infants of these "vulnerable populations" were as healthy as their "nonvulnerable" counterparts, as many as 1/3 (approximately 12,000 deaths) of all infant deaths in the US might be avoided each year. This paper is intended to document which infants are vulnerable, to quantify the degree of risk where possible, and to outline potential changes in public policy that may lead to improvements in the health of these infants. (author's)
Reaching out to the adolescent. Rev. ed.
A programmed learning course in contraceptive counseling, in 5 booklets, contains an introduction to programmed learning, the principles of counseling, sexual maturation, common issues in adolescent sexuality, and family planning for Filipino youths. The 7 principles of counseling are individualization, purposeful expression of feelings, controlled emotional involvement, acceptance, non-judgemental attitude, client self determination and confidentiality. The sexuality booklet deals with reproductive physiology and includes illustrations of internal and external genitalia of both sexes. Problems that adolescents encounter include dating, masturbation, homosexuality, venereal disease, and virginity of the woman before marriage. Although the treatment of family planning methods is on the level of definition of the various methods, the last booklet deals in greater detail with sexual responsibility and the advantages of using family planning.
This final note in the series reviews the objectives and implementation of the International Research Awards Program on the Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries. The note also discusses the conclusions of some of the research projects funded, illustrating the priority research areas selected to advance the understanding of the determinants of fertility and assist in the formulation of improved population policies. (author's)
This book gives an account of the latest results of investigations undertaken primarily by Chinese systems analysts over the past few years on population system control theory and its application. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to China's population and to the tasks of population cybernetics. Chapter 2 explains the classical definitions and theories of mathematical models of population systems from a new viewpoint, beginning with the population systems equation. Chapter 3 redefines the classical descriptions of demographic indices and establishes new formulas for calculation. Chapter 4 comprehensively studies the dynamic characteristics of the population system. In the 5th chapter, the central instability theorem of population systems is proved in various forms and a decisive parameter of the critical fertility rate is derived in explicit form. Chapter 6 summarizes the basis and methods of population control policy evaluation. A recent important conclusion reached in population studies is that inevitably man will see the emergence of societies with a zero growth rate. Chapter 7 analyzes the population structure in this type of society. Finally, chapter 8 presents in detail the optimization theory of birth control policy and its applications--the encouraging results in population studies obtained through the application of cybernetics.
The contribution of the elderly population to society: China's perspectives and experiences.
As a result of the demographic transition, both the absolute and relative sizes of the elderly population are increasing, and as a result of a prolonged life span, elderly people will live many years after their retirement. It is more and more accepted that the elderly will continue their participation in social development to lighten their increasing burden on society. Although respect for the elderly is part of the Chinese tradition, the idea of giving the elderly a full role to play in social activities was rarely discussed in the past. Since the agricultural population accounts for 80% of the total population and all citizens enjoy the right to work, the rate of employment in China, including the rate among the elderly, is very high. Although China's present population is not an old one, the size of the elderly population is large, the largest among all the countries of the world. China's economy is still less developed. Both pension and medical expenditures form a heavy load on the state and on enterprises. If the elderly continue to participate in the production of goods and services for society, thus reducing the number of sole consumers and increasing the number of producers, that will be important for economic progress in China. Old people differ in their abilities to contribute due to differences in 1) health conditions, 2) sex and age, 3) employment before retirement, 4) education, 5) occupations, 6) economic status, 7) marital and housing status, 8) personality and individual preferences, and 9) participation in various social associations. The elderly still play an important role in agricultural production. The urban elderly make contributions to society using mainly their professional knowledge, experience, and skill. This is easier for mental than for physical workers. The urban elderly make contributions mainly in the field of tertiary industry and the types of work they can engage in within their capacity. Old people write reminiscences, teach school, and translate and annotate ancient books. Some of them develop self-services among the elderly. Old people also take a large responsibility for housework. The promotion of the elderly's participation in social development is an integral part of China's efforts to improve the physical quality and scientific and literate levels of the population.
Population, labour and migration in 19th- and 20th-century Germany.
The controversial 'guestworker' question, which has preoccupied the West Germans since the 1960s, has led a number of historians and social scientists in the Federal Republic to a close examination of past and present developments in population structure, labor, and migration--both in specific areas and in more general terms. Their work shows that the large influx of foreign workers during the last 25 years is, in fact, only the latest manifestation of a long-term trend whose roots can be traced as far back as the early 19th century. During this period, Germany has changed from a country of mass overseas emigration to 1 of mass continental immigration. This volume offers a summary of the present debate over the conditions, causes, and developments of this process and also of the current efforts being made to solve the resultant social problems which it has caused for contemporary German society. This volume aims to perform a useful service by describing, from a historical and empirical point-of-view, the chief aspects of migration to and from Germany down to the present day. It traces the effect on the labor market in the host country concerned and draws attention to the social and cultural problems of foreign workers. It shows clearly that the processes of migration involve complex, long-term developments which can only be assessed in the light of comprehensive investigation. The book forms a link between past and present, supplementing and deepening the study of current problems by placing them in historical perspective.
Introduction: population, labour, migration: historical studies and issues of current debate.
In the 19th and 20th centuries, Germans abroad and foreigners in Germany have experienced the most varied forms of emigration and immigration: 1) the older German emigration to eastern and southeastern Europe, especially Russia and Austria-Hungary; 2) the mass transatlantic emigration from 19th century Germany; 3) the mass movement of foreign migrant workers, especially form Congress Poland and Austrian Galacia, in the late 19th and early 20th century; 4) forced labor by Fremdarbeiter in Nazi Germany; 5) emigration from Nazi Germany on political, ideological, and racial grounds; 6) forced resettlement in German-occupied Europe during the 2nd World War; and 7) movements of millions expellees and refugees at the end of the war. Marschalck's study of German demographic history emphasizes the development of mortality and fertility in the 19th and 20th centuries and the relationship between the development of fertility and that of the labor market and labor conditions. Pierenkemper races the main lines of labor market development in Germany from the early 19th century to the present, looking closely at the system of employment and the labor market. Bade combines the perspectives of population, labor market, economy, and internal and transnational migration with those of labor administration, emigration policies, and policies towards foreign labor in Germany in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Langewiesche and Lenger deal with the causes, development, and problems of internal migration in 19th and early 20th century Germany. Klebmann's case study considers and particular aspect of the largely proletarian labor migration within Germany in the late 19th and early 20th century: the movement of Ruhr Poles from the Prussian east to the coal and steel conurbation of the Ruhr district in the Prussian west. Doerries deals with the history of German transatlantic emigration, about 90% of which was directed at the US in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Bade continues the historical account given in his 1st paper of developments from Imperial Germany to the Weimar Republic to the present. Korte characterizes the main positions adopted by economists and social scientists on whether foreign workers are guestworkers or immigrants.
The age of demographic transition: mortality and fertility.
German population history of the last 2 centuries is the history of important changes in reproductive behavior, which are comprised within the concept of demographic transition, the transition from an ancient demographic regime to a modern system of population and society. The demographic situation in 18th century Germany was relatively stable and characterized by high mortality, especially infant and child mortality, and estimated life expectancy of 32.5 years, high marital fertility, and low population growth. Mortality crises were determined by epidemics and bad harvests. Population growth in preindustrial demographic systems is closely connected with possibilities of marriage, which again are closely linked to the means of subsistence available. Social reforms liberated agriculture from feudal demands and introduced free trade, which led to increasing numbers of marriages, and rapid population growth. Mortality decline in Germany began in 1865 with a spectacular reduction in child mortality. The rapid, large increases in life expectancy, together with changes in fertility, produced an age structure quite different from that of the 19th century German population. different economic sectors, income groups, religious groups, and regional populations underwent rapid fertility decline within the same period, but they did so at different rates. Until about 1930, nearly all differentials were maintained and even expanded. The decline in fertility was also more intense than the decline mortality. The relationship between labor market and fertility must be taken as indirect, and the different intervening variables need not necessarily be economic determinants. From preindustrial times up to the beginning of the fertility decline about 1900 in Germany, the Malthusian statement can still be accepted as a suitable approach to population growth issues. Today's demographic situation demands yet another question: what are the reasons today that people have children?
Transatlantic emigration and continental immigration: the German experience past and present.
Over the last century Germany has experienced a complete reversal of transnational migrations and their related problems. In the 19th century, it was a country of transatlantic mass emigration. Since the 1950s, the Federal Republic of Germany has received a massive influx of people from other parts of the continent. In the 1880s, Imperial Germany saw the last and greatest emigration wave of the 19th century (1880-1893) involving about 1.8 million Germans migrating across the Atlantic. Because of the social crisis created by the rapid change from an agricultural to an industrial society, this emigration served to relieve widespread social tensions at home and was to some extent an exportation of social problems. In the 1980s, the Federal Republic has to face an imported social problem as a result of massive continental immigration of foreign laborers and their families. On the eve of the 1st World War, more than a million foreign workers were employed in Imperial Germany. During the Weimar period, the scale of foreign labor declined steadily until almost all traces of the foreign migrant workers had disappeared with the Great depression. The introduction of Nazi foreign worker policies heralded a new and , particularly during World War II, a tragic chapter in the history of foreign labor in Germany, including deportations from occupied territories and the use of forced labor from enemy states. Official data for 1982 disclosed a total of 4,666,900 foreigners living in the Federal Republic. The foreign workers are poised uneasily between a guestworker and an immigrant status. The effect of this on the foreign community is a growing collective frustration. Many guestworker families are today facing a cultural conflict typical of a genuine immigrant situation, where the 2nd generation is already extensively assimilated.
The organized recruitment of the people originally called Gastarbeiter was connected with the basic idea of getting seasonal workers, i.e., lower-paid workers with a less secure status. Rotation of workers was another basic idea that was not only accepted, but forced, by the unions, who feared steady competition from a cheaper and more easily manageable labor force. This policy has been a failure. Politicians and political administrators are unable or unwilling to accept the failure of the Gastarbeiter policy. In current parliamentary debates, 2 contrasting positions are apparent, with 1 side demanding increased repatriation and the other calling for better intergration ending in naturalization. There is a relationship between skill requirements, the percentage women employed, the type of manufacturing process, and the employment of foreign workers. Foreign workers are more often paid on a piecework basis, they work more shifts, and they figure more frequently in the accident statistics. The German school system was in no way prepared to cope with massive immigration. German parents became angry about crammed elementary school classes, crowded with children of various nationalities, but by 1980 the school system had taken up the challenge and begun to tackle the problem. Foreign children today receive regular education, mostly in normal German classes, their school attendance quota is the same as for German children, and an ever-increasing number successfully finish secondary school. All investigations of housing establish unequivocally again and again that foreigners live under worse conditions but pay proportionately more rent than their German counterparts. It is not enough to illustrate ever more clearly through new surveys the social situation of foreign workers and their families. It is more cogent to examine the inseparable connection between politics and social research, particularly exemplified by migrant labor and participation of foreigners in the work force.
Population and development in the Sudan: the quest for a national policy.
This 3rd Sudan National Population Conference was organized by the National Population Committee of the National Council for Research in Khartoum from 10-15 October 1987. The main objective of the conference was to reach consensus on the development of a population policy for Sudan. Another major concern was to highlight the population problems of Sudan in an attempt to outline frameworks for their solution. Raising awareness about such problems through the participation of the governmental and the nongovernmental sectors was another goal of the conference. The conference program included the opening session, 10 plenary sessions in which 15 technical papers were presented and discussed, and 6 concurrent group working sessions for the formulation of policy recommendations. The conference closed by adopting a number of recommendations that are the basis for the further development of the national population program. This volume contains the edited technical papers on population issues in Sudan and the addresses given in the opening and closing sessions.
The Meeting on the Emerging issues of the Aging of Population was held at Bangkok, from 22-26 September 1986. It was organized by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific with financial assistance from the UN Fund for Population Activities. The long-term objective of the project was to increase awareness among policy makers and planners of the emerging problems of population aging and provide them with alternative policies. The situation and emerging issues of aging are illustrated in this report at the country level by case studies of the 3 countries participating in the projects: Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, and Sri Lanka. Discussion themes include educational programs for older people, the appropriateness of lowering the mandatory retirement age to improve employment prospects for younger people, and the difficulty for individuals and governments of planning ahead when life expectancy is rising so rapidly. In virtually all the countries of the region, traditional filial piety is weakening, in many cases because adult children experienced income rises which do not keep up with the cost of living or rising expectations. Given that the young are becoming more individualistic, it was agreed that government measures were required to strengthen existing family support and to provide alternatives when it was not available. The background paper on current issues related to population aging emphasizes the Japanese experience and covers senior citizen clubs in Japan, national pension plans mandatory retirement ages, and the use and transfer of older people's personal wealth. Another background paper conceptualizes the social roles of older people in both developing and developed countries in the context of rapid social change and the need for appropriate policy responses. A background paper on the nature and adequacy of formal and informal support programs to deal with the problems of the aged examines the socioeconomic changes in the region, various programs, and possible solutions for policy makers. The Meeting considered the design of country studies proposed for China, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, and Sri Lanka. On completion of theses studies, existing policies will be reviewed and suggestions made for their improvement and development.
The emerging issues of the aging of population: Malaysia.
Although the population of Malaysia has continued to grow, its growth rate has declined from 3.2% in 1961 to 2.3% in 1980. If current trends continue, the population will reach replacement level in 2030, with about 15% of the population aged. The Chinese as a group are experiencing the aging process much faster than the Malays or the Indians. In view of the rapid demographic changes in the population, a number of issues which in the past were taken for granted or considered minor now require serious attention, including 1) family versus government care for the aged, 2) health care for the aged, 3) old age pensions, 4) employment opportunities for older people, and 5) housing in urban areas large enough for the aged to live with their children. Government policies that need to be examined include 1) pension schemes, 2) the employees' provident fund, 3) welfare assistance, 4) filial piety, 5) leisure activities, 6) health care, and 7) transportation. Younger generations should be made aware of the need to care for their elderly as the state, however rich and developed, cannot replace or substitute for love and affection from one's own family. The elderly today were young once and they have performed their duties and contributed to the growth and development of the country, therefore they deserve the best of care for the rest of their lives.
Current and future prospects on problems of aging in the Republic of Korea.
In Korea, the life span has lengthened significantly, and the proportion of older people has increased in proportion to the total population. The problems of the aged in the Republic of Korea can be categorized as poverty, sickness, isolation, and alienation. Poverty is the core problem. The civic organization, the Korean Association of the Aged, now has 17 Colleges for the Aged and 243 Schools for the Aged. The aged must try to understand the reality of modern society in which they live so that they can learn methods to avoid isolation and needless pain. According to a recent survey, 1) the educational level of the aged is very low, especially for females; 2) among the aged, 38% live with their 1st son and his wife, 23% live with unmarried children or a widowed daughter-in-law, 12% live with a younger-son couple, 2.4% live with a married daughter, and 1.2% live with other relatives; 3) 95% live in a detached dwelling; 4) only 7% are supported by the government; 5) 60% did not work; 6) 4% were bed-ridden, but 73% had at least 1 disease; and 7) elderly males felt that retirement age should be 70 years old, but females thought that retirement age should be 60 years old. Government policies include 1) the maintenance and development of the family system, 2) assistance to develop autonomous welfare work for the elderly, and 3) social help and extension services.
Emerging issues of the aging of population in Sri Lanka.
This paper attempts a preliminary examination of the state of the aged in Sri Lanka and discusses some of the emerging issues of policy for the aged in this country. The government of Sri Lanka has fixed the optimal age of retirement for men at 55 years and females at 50 years with 60 and 55 as compulsory retirement ages for males and females. Traditionally, the Sri Lankans respect the elders within the family and without, in the community at large. But with the advent of the foreign influence, the extended family is breaking down, wives are working, and grandparents are increasingly taking on the care of the children. Life expectancy in Sri Lanka has increased from 47.8 and 44.8 in 1945 to 66.1 and 70.2 for males and females respectively in 1979. In 1981, the aged accounted for 4.3% of the population. Aged dependency ratios rose from 6.5% in 1963 to 11.4% in 1981. In Sri Lanka, formal policies for the aged are non-existent. While persons employed by the government receive a monthly pension from the state on retirement, pension plans in the private sector are extremely rare. The Employees Provident Fund provides some security to those in the private sector. Also, the free health scheme provides full medical facilities to all, including the aged; the free Food Stamp Scheme covers the needy, including the aged. The Department of Social Services maintains 3 large Elders' Homes, which are fully financed by the state. There are also 48 homes run by voluntary organizations. The traditional support base of the elderly is gradually eroding, although it is more present in rural than in urban areas. Loss of interest in life after retirement, loss of recognition after retirement, and difficulties of integrating into the working life of the social community are the 3 major issues in elders' adaptation to retirement. In Sri Lanka, women live longer than men. The problems of living alone, although difficult for men, are much harder for aged females. The aged continue to engage in economically and socially productive roles, but the proportion so engaged is diminishing. There is a need for informal educational activities to make the elderly's leisure time more enjoyable and productive. Both mental and physical health need attention in the case of the elderly.
Roles of the aged, families and communities in the context of an aging society.
This paper explores some of the major influences on the social integration of older people in Asia and the Pacific. The basic aim here is to conceptualize the social roles of the aged and provide a framework for further analysis and review. The paper begins by considering some basic concepts and patterns of social integration, turns to the impact of social change, and concludes with implications for both policy development and the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific country reviews. Various forms of family are the most central avenue of social integration and support for older people in virtually all countries. The dominant family form in the West is the modified extended family, in which older couples and individuals prefer to live in their own dwellings but with other generations located nearby and maintaining close contact. Contrary to the stereotyped view of family abandonment, older people and their families in developed nations exchange substantial amounts of practical assistance with their families. In developing countries, particularly in rural areas, the extended family continues as the primary institution in virtually all areas of life. A recent World Health Organization survey of the Western Pacific showed that 70-80% of older people lived with their children. Relatively few of these older people reported that they were lonely or that they had unmet instrumental needs. The future impact of social change includes changes in 1) individual aging, 2) cohorts, and 3) period effects. The movement of more societies through the demographic transition will have mixed implications for the structure of families and informal relationships. Over the course of just 1 generation, the balance may well shift from 1 old person/4-5 children to 2 older people/3-4 children. Policy directions for developing countries include 1) maintaining traditional cultural values which support a useful and respected place for older people, 2) income support from government, 3) employment opportunities for older people, and 4) community and residential services for the frail elderly.
Nature and adequacy of formal and informal support programmes to deal with the problem of the aged.
This paper attempts to examine 1) the socioeconomic changes in the Asia-Pacific region, with particular reference to Hong Kong and China, and its perspective on aging, 2) formal and informal support programs for the elderly and their coordination, and 3) possible solutions for policy makers to consider in dealing with the problem of the aged. The growth and distribution of older people in the region will place heavy demands on national resources. So far, governments have depended on families to care for the elderly population. However, with the rapid socioeconomic changes that have taken place during the last decade, formal and informal support programs are dragging behind the ever increasing social needs of the aged. The prognosis points towards growing social problems posing threats to society's stability and prosperity. Since families will eventually be unable to attend to the sophisticated needs of the senile aged, governments need to design specialized services that would supplement family care for the elderly. At the same time, national resources must be provided for formulating self-help programs to enable the elderly to stand as much as possible on their own feet. After all, for all that the older generation has done to make the world what it is today, isn't it society's responsibility to repay them by ensuring that they had a happy, rewarding life upon retirement?
This paper reviews the extent to which there has been effective integration of population and development planning in the less developed countries of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific region, specifically in Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, and Thailand. On the basis of this review, the paper then goes on to identify the planning and institutional implications on the 1 hand and the research and data needs on the other hand for more effective integration. The paper begins by clarifying the nature of integration of population and development planning. The next section justifies the need to emphasize population and development planning in developing countries. The next section examines the experience of integration in Bangladesh, Thailand, Nepal, and the Philippines. This review section shows that both the institutional and methodological aspects of integration have not been comprehensive in these countries, and offers suggestions for improving the development planning machinery and the methodological approaches for more substantive integration.
Analytical perspectives for population and development research and planning.
This paper describes analytical perspectives that will help guide research into population-development interrelationships. The need for integration is based on the recognition that demographic variables influence development variables and are also influenced by them, and that demographic policies are integral parts of social and economic development policies aimed to improve levels of living and raise the quality of life. The paper describes a macro-planning perspective, which considers the demographic processes of fertility, mortality, migration, population size, age-sex structure, spatial distribution, and the socioeconomic processes of savings, investments, land, labor and capital utilization, consumption of goods and services, public expenditures, and external trade. The socioeconomic outcomes of interest include income, employment, health and nutrition, education and training, housing and sanitation, and environmental quality. A sectoral planning perspective can be used to extract population-development interactions at the sectoral level, i. e. economic, social services, and infrastructure sectors, by highlighting aspects directly related to the sector. The same macro-framework is used so that population-development interactions can conveniently be analyzed both within the sector and between sectors in the broader context of the macro-economy. A program/project planning perspective includes 4 basic components: 1) a household or individual decision-making model, 2) the physical, social and economic environment of the community, 3) autonomous changes in this environment, and 4) changes in the environment arising from population and development activities. Studies that might be pursued using these frameworks and already existing data include 1) economic and demographic transitions, the role of public policies; 2) a sectoral analysis of public policy and health outcomes; and 3) assessing the demographic impact of development projects, a project-level analysis.
The Seminar on Mortality and Health Issues was held at Beijing from 22 to 27 October 1986 as a cooperative venture between the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Institute of Population Research, People's University of China, as part of the project, "Analysis of Trends and Patterns of Mortality in the ESCAP Region." Part 1 of the report includes a summary of the Beijing recommendations on health and mortality and the report of the seminar. Part 2 contains papers on a comparative analysis on trends and patterns of mortality in the ESCAP region, an overview of the epidemiological situation in the region, health for all by the year 2000, and inequalities in health.
Trends and patterns of mortality in the ESCAP Region: comparative analysis.
This study outlines the mortality transition in 6 developing countries: Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. The path and pattern of the mortality transition in these countries is compared to the transition in other countries in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region. These 6 countries have striking similarities to others in the region: 1) they have all been exposed to colonialism in the past; 2) 30 or 40 years ago they were very similar in their demographic characteristics, and only in the last decade or so have they become increasingly heterogenous; and 3) they have suffered from the stagnation of economic growth and inflation. In at least 1 of the 6 countries, the Republic of Korea, mortality probably started declining early in this century. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, during the British colonial administration of the 1920s, the early decline of mortality was probably limited to urban areas. The onset of the mortality transition is more difficult to date in Thailand and Indonesia, but it probably did not begin before the mid-1940s. It is unlikely that major improvements in Chinese mortality began before the 1950s. In all 6 countries age and sex specific mortality rates declined, though the pattern of these changes varies greatly among them. In most instances, significant reductions in infancy and early childhood mortality occurred, lesser ones among adults, and least affected were older people. In some countries, the reduction of female mortality at some or all ages was proportionately greater than that of males, with a subsequent widening of the gap between the survival chances of males and females. There have been no major changes in the age and sex structure of the 6 populations other than those which have originated from the recent decline in fertility in some of them. The reduced numbers of higher order births, birth spacing, and the postponement of marriage and of births to very young mothers must have reduced infant, child, and maternal mortality. A significant contribution to the general decline of mortality accrues from 2 major trends: 1) rising urbanization, and 2) increasing adult literacy, especially of women. On the available evidence, it appears that in all the countries except Bangladesh the nutritional situation of the population has improved. Health care planning has been an integral part of developmental plans in all 6 countries of the ESCAP region. The health delivery systems in all 6 countries have greatly expanded in the last 35 years. 3 characteristics have made the mortality decline unique: the magnitude, speed, and universality of the decline.
The epidemiological situation in the ESCAP Region: facts, fallacies and implications.
Around 1980, half of the population of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region was already living in countries where the average life expectancy at birth is 65 years. Impressive as this progress is, its interpretation as a proof for improvement of the health status of the populations has not remained unchallenged. Repeatedly, it has been argued that as a consequence of the import of sophisticated modern medical technology, as well as large-scale foreign aid inspired and financed public health programs, the reduction of mortality has outpaced improvements in health. Similar reservations against the use of mortality data as evidence for trends and differentials in health status have been put forward in the more developed countries of the ESCAP region, particularly vocally in Japan. The debate is not academic but concerns crucial policy issues. In many countries of the ESCAP region, the health care delivery system is neither sufficiently organized nor staffed, in numbers and qualifications, to cope with the problems raised by a rapidly increasing population, particularly in certain high risk groups such as pregnant women, infants, and children. This challenge is compounded by the fact that very often traditional health problems exist side by side with newly emerging hazards. The dominant conclusion of an analysis of all the available information is that in contrast to the significant advances in the control of mortality, the morbidity situation has either stagnated or, at any rate, failed to match the gains in longevity. Impressive advances in some areas and countries exist side by side with grave setbacks in others. On the whole, the diversity of national health conditions has increased, with some countries approaching a "modern" epidemiological scenario, others lagging behind, and another group tackling old and new disease problems concurrently. Likewise, within countries, similar differences exist or gradually emerge between urban and rural populations. Malnutrition, in synergistic action with diarrhoeal diseases and acute respiratory infections, as well as malaria, are the main challenge in the ESCAP region, particularly for the countries of Middle South Asia. Successful agricultural policies have laid the foundation for overcoming the age-old threat of mal- and undernutrition. As regards malaria, the current situation hardly justifies optimism. In the developed countries of the region, the common causes of illness are cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and accidents.
Inequalities in health-facts and implications.
The question arising out of this preliminary review of inequities in health in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region is whether the broad outlines and recommendations of the Alma Ata Conference 1) are based on a scientifically valid evaluation of available information and 2) constitute a solid basis for leading the region into the 21st century. One must credit the World Health Organization (WHO) for having initiated a global process towards the design and evaluation of health policies and programs on a scientific and rational basis. Formidable problems of collection, analysis, and interpretation of information await solution. If critique is to be levelled at WHO and national health administrations, it is not the current state of the art but the gap between occasionally exaggerated claims of progress and the reality. As to the thrust of the Health For All By The Year 2000 strategy, there can be little doubt that a development strategy based on social justice and active involvement of the population is an efficient tool for propelling a country into the demographic (and epidemiological) transition, for setting in motion or accelerating the movement from high to low mortality. Nevertheless, an egalitarian philosophy "per se" does not guarantee success. Some countries with a less than rigid equity-oriented approach have scored substantial gains, too. The lack of association between infant mortality and measures of inequality such as the Gini coefficient points to the importance of other factors. Another delicate question relates to the long-term applicability and effectiveness of an egalitarian approach to social policy and the organization of society. There is a potential conflict between political and scientific knowledge. In the course of switching from high to low mortality, the social inequality of death has been increasing. Community involvement and the voluntary and determined participation of the population in health intervention programs seem to be--at least in high mortality countries--crucial for advancing along the road to better health. To assume that the import of sophisticated modern technology and financial bilateral or multilateral aid can substitute for national efforts which involve all strata of the population and grant them their fair share of the benefits of development may look like a convenient shortcut for those interested in preserving outdated social structures but is unlikely to succeed. The major determinants of health are deeply rooted in a society, its cultural pattern, politico-institutional philosophy and organization, as well as its economic level.
Migration and residential mobility in the United States.
The major goal of this book is to integrate and communicate the trends and patterns of geographical mobility within the US, as revealed by decennial censuses since 1940 and major national surveys conducted during those decades. Census questions on state of birth and residence 5 years earlier and survey questions on residence 1 year earlier provide overlapping images of the amount and major forms of geographical mobility in the US from the late 1930s to the early 1980s. This book attempts to show where the picture is clear, and where there are missing pieces that need to be filled in for policy or for research purposes. This book gives an overall perspective, highlighting relationships among the various forms and patterns of spatial mobility, as measured in censuses and surveys, and describing what has changed and what has not over the last half century. The book stresses what has been learned, and it tries to show how research and policy debates have influenced and been influenced by the available statistics on internal migration. The 8 chapters include 1) Research and Data on Geographical Mobility, 2) National Rates of Geographical Mobility, 3) Migration for States, 4) Return and Repeat Interstate Migration, 5) Interregional Migration, Race, and Public Policy, 6) Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Mobility, 7) Reasons for Moving, and 8) International Comparisons of Geographical Mobility. Appendices includes 1) Sources and Quality of Data on Internal Migration, 2) Lifetime Mobility and Cross-sectional Data, and 3) How States Rank on Various Measures of Migration.
The Seminar on Recent Developments in the Techniques of Population Analysis and Statistical Inference was held by the Statistics Section of the Department of Mathematics and the Centre of Population Studies, Banaras Hindu University, India, from October 21-23, 1982. The purpose of the seminar was to stimulate research and disseminate knowledge through personal contacts and lectures of scholars brought together from distant places. The proceedings include 15 papers on models, estimation techniques, and statistical inference.
On the estimates of the risk of conception from closed birth interval data.
Models for closed birth intervals can be broadly characterized into 2 groups: 1) models for closed birth intervals when the marital duration of women is large, and 2) models when the marital duration is specified. This paper derives some probability models for closed birth intervals under different sets of assumptions. Section 2 presents 2 models for consideration, while section 3 deals with the illustration of the models and discusses the varying estimates of the risk of conception obtained through the application of models to an observed data set from the Varanasi Survey (1969-1970), India.
Estimation of age-specific fecundability and sterility.
This paper presents a probability distribution for a number of births to a woman, during a given period of time, under certain simplified assumptions, when the fertility parameters before the start of the observation period are different from those during the period of observation. The model can be used to estimate age-specific fecundability and the incidence of sterility in the latter part of the reproductive period. Section 2 derives a continuous time probability distribution that describes the number of live births to a female during a specific period. Assuming that the rate of conception and the proportion of sterile couples remains constant in each interval but changes over intervals, the model may fit data on births after age 30 better than previous models. For illustration, the model is applied to data on 3514 households from 19 villages in the survey of rural development and population growth (1978) conducted by the Demographic Research Centre at Banaras Hindu University, India.
On the estimation of variance when mean is known.
This paper proposes an estimator P of population variance when the mean is known, which utilizes a priori information about the known population coefficient of kurtosis beta2. The proposed estimator P has been compared with the usual unbiased estimator w2 in terms of squared error loss criterion.
A conception dependent probability model for closed birth interval.
This paper derives a probability model for the ith order closed birth interval, considering time as a continuous variable, fecundability as conception dependent, and fetal losses as also dependent. The model incorporates fetal wastage, and the conception rate is assumed to change with conception. The model is an extension of the model given by Singh et al (1979) and Pandey (1981). Using data from the "Demographic Survey of Varanasi (Rural), 1969," the model proves useful for its flexibility with different types of data where fecundability is observed to change with conception. A simplified version of the model with only a few parameters has been used for this paper, but it may also be utilized with more parameters.
Trends in fecundability and sterility according to age of the female.
This paper examines trends in fecundability and sterility by female age at 2 points in time. The estimates of fecundability and sterility are obtained using the model of Singh et al (1962), which gives simple procedures for estimating these parameters. Data come from 2 demographic surveys of rural Varanasi, India, in 1969 and 1978. Some interesting results can be estimated relating to the trend in fecundability over the 2 periods. The estimate of fecundability for the age group 20-25 in 1969 is considerably lower than that obtained in 1978. The age groups 25-30 have similar fecundability rates for both periods, but for the rest of the age groups the 1978 rates are lower than those for 1969. The lower values of fecundability in later age groups for 1978 may be due to the increasing use of non-terminal family planning methods to limit family size. Women do not develop full reproductive maturity for several years after the 1st menstruation. The high incidence of sterility after age 35 may be due to sexual abstinence or perhaps to the poor health of women.
A bivariate probability distribution for number of conceptions in equilibrium birth process.
In most of the probability models derived for analyzing data on numbers of births or conceptions to women, it is presumed that the woman is susceptible at the beginning of the observation period. In practice, this assumption is not always feasible, especially when the data has been collected in a retrospective survey. This paper proposes a bivariate probability model for numbers of conceptions to females when counting the conceptions starts abruptly. The time is treated as continuous. A procedure of finding maximum likelihood estimates of some of the parameters and the variance-covariance of these estimates has been given. The estimates of some parameters have been obtained by applying the model to an observed distribution. The model is applied to a set of data from the Varanasi Survey, 1969-1970, of about 2200 households in 52 villages of Varanasi Tehsil, India.
Facts at a glance: November, 1988.
This data sheet contains the most recent information available on teenage fertility in the US. Data indicate that teenage birth rates in the US are gradually declining. However, most Western industrial democracies have lower birth rates and lower abortion rates than does the US. In addition, the rates in these nations have for the most part been falling faster than the US rate. Some highlights of the data follow. 1) In 1986, teens had 472,081 births; this number has declined since 1980 (562,330) among all teens except those aged 14 and younger. 2) The smaller number of births is due primarily to a smaller number of teens; however, a gradual decline in the birth rate has also contributed. By 1986, the birth rate among females aged 15-19 had declined to 51 births/1000 females. 3) The proportion of teen births occurring outside of marriage has quadrupled since 1960, from 15% to 61%. The % of out-of-wedlock births has increased among both black and white teens. 4) In 1970, 69% of all women age 19 were single. By 1986, 85% were still single. 5) Cohabitation has become increasingly common among young Americans. Among youth in their early 20s, 15% had lived with a partner. 6) The proportion of young mothers having low birth weight babies, while still higher than among mothers in their 20s or 30s, has declined since 1970. 7) In 1983, more than 4% of US females aged 15-19 had an abortion. Teens 15-19 had 489,000 births and 411,000 abortions in 1983. 8) In 1985, the US had 51 births/1000 females aged 15-19; Sweden had 11, New Zealand 31, the Netherlands 7, Japan 4, Great Britain 30, France 12, and Canada 23. 9) In 1982, the US abortion rate was 44/1000 females aged 15-19, compared to 20 in Sweden, 19 in Canada, 17 in Great Britain, 15 in France, 13 in New Zealand, and 6 in the Netherlands.
Vital statistics of the United States, 1984, volume 3--marriage and divorce.
This volume contains final data on marriage and divorce in the US for 1984. Data are included on national trends since 1920: totals and rates for each state, division, region, and the 50 largest standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs); and totals for county or county equivalent. Data are also included on 1) monthly marriage totals for each state, division, and region; 2) marriages by major demographic characteristics in the marriage registration area; 3) estimates of children involved in divorces; and 4) divorces by major demographic characteristics in the divorce registration areas. A separate section provides data on Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. A technical appendix describes the sources of the statistics, design of the samples, the variability of the sample estimates, and the quality of the reporting forms and collected data. Tables are also given for the population estimates used as bases for rates.
Vital statistics of the United States, 1986, volume 2--mortality, part A.
This 1986 volume of mortality statistics includes tabulations of general mortality, infant mortality, fetal mortality, perinatal deaths, and accidental mortality, together with life tables and a technical appendix. Tables include age, sex, race, cause of death, and geographic area of the population. A varying number of other categories are also used to describe each of the particular populations.
North Carolina vital statistics--1987, volume 1: births, deaths, population, marriages, divorces.
The tables of this report show annual frequencies, annual rates, and 5-year rates of vital statistics for the state, 4 Department of Human Resources regions, 6 Health Service Areas, 6 Perinatal Care regions, and the 100 counties of North Carolina. Annual frequencies and selected rates are also shown for 43 major incorporated cities. Some trends reflected in the 1987 data follow. 1) The state's rate of premature births remained unchanged. 2) Both white and nonwhite birth rates rose in 1987. 3) The number of live births occurring out of wedlock continued its upward trend. 4) The white neonatal rate remained the same while white fetal mortality rose; nonwhites experienced reduced fetal mortality but increased neonatal mortality. 5) Nonwhite postneonatal mortality declined while the white rate increased. 6) Both white and nonwhite infant mortality rates rose. 7) N.C.'s white population aged 45+ experienced some decline in age-specific mortality.
The humanity of cities: an introduction to urban societies.
This book argues that the concept of the "inhumanity of cities" (as contrasted with other forms of human settlement) is empirically and intellectually unsound and that it is also a deterrent to people's constructive thought and action in urban everyday life. In setting forth the humanity of cities, the author does not gloss over the inhumanities committed in them. Nor are cities presented in utopian terms. On the contrary, the prevailing method of presentation is empirical; this book consists of facts based on observations and studies of cities as they actually are--or at least as observers perceived them to be. Although coverage is intended to be worldwide, descriptive details come almost entirely from Western industrial and Third World cities and only to a small extent from the revolutionary industrial cities of the People's Republic of China and the Soviet Union. Chapter 1 emphasizes the point that the proper focus is on cities in the plural, and not on "the city" in a monolithic singular, and places urban anthropology in the context of other disciplines devoted to the study of cities. Chapter 2 deals with human scale, as applied to buildings, communities, and institutions; it implies a degree of size and complexity that feels manageable to people. Chapter 3 on magnitudes expands into a critical examination of large size as an essential criterion of "cityness." Chapter 4 considers the evolution of cities of primordial, preindustrial, Third World, Western industrial, and revolutionary industrial types. Chapter 5 on livelihoods considers how people earn their livings in the various types of cities, and the stereotypes and overgeneralizations that cloud these issues. Chapter 6 deals with the connections that can meaningfully be called networks, institutions, and even communities. Chapter 7 examines the subcultures that provide large-scale connections in city life and are also the essence of heterogeneity of cities. Chapter 8 outlines an agenda for the humanity of cities. The author does not claim that cities are, or ever will be, utopias. What he does claim is that the humanity of cities requires the constant striving for the best by and for all city dwellers, rich poor, and that this striving, to be successful, must be informed by knowledge and awareness of all the options life in the cities of the world offers.
This volume tracks over 200 important trends on US teen attitudes and behavior over the last 10 years. Analysis by Gallup's staff provides perceptions and ideas about the significant changes in teens that are important to researchers and leaders in business, marketing, sales, education, social work, government, and youth organizations. For trends, Gallup provides 1) nationwide, projectable samples, 2) studies of teenagers of all ages, 3) long-term trends, 4) previously unpublished data, and 5) analyses of the significance of trends. Much of the data is based on the Gallup Youth Survey, the oldest continuous survey of adolescent attitudes and behavior in existence. Section 1 covers self, parents, family, life satisfaction, family discussions and arguments, relationships with parents, peer pressure, and community. Section 2 deals with attitudes about marriage, divorce, children, and sex. Section 3 deals with high school education rates schools, teachers, homework, discipline, cheating, extracurricular activities, and skills. Section 4 covers career and college plans, and section 5 deals with volunteer and military service. Sections 6 and 7 examine political views and awareness. Section 7 investigates attitudes towards international affairs, such as nuclear war and the UN. Sections 8 and 9 explore religion, values, heroes, and role models. Substance abuse is the subject of section 10. Section 11 looks at attitudes towards law and order. Section 13 covers health, welfare, sports, recreation, and entertainment. Sections 14-16 examine media, music, and computers. Section 17 on economics covers allowances, jobs, and earnings' forecasts. Sections 18-20 examine shopping, food and eating out, and transportation. A technical appendix describes sampling techniques and sample composition.
Accomplishments in research on aging.
This volume contains 9 presentations made at a symposium held on May 23, 1985, in honor of the National Institute on Aging's 1st 10 years. Topics chosen for publication in this volume are related to the research priorities of the National Institute on Aging. These priorities reflect public concerns and needs in relation to aging and the problems of older people. The 9 presentations include: 1) History of Research on Aging, 2) Normal Aging in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study, 3) Research on Alzheimer's Disease: An Historical Perspective, 4) Intellectual Functioning, 5) Evolution of Geriatric Research, 6) Health, Well-Being, and Productivity, 7) Future Directions of Biomedical Research on Aging, 8) Comments on Social Factors in Aging, and 9) Reflections of a Former NIA Director.
Parental attitudes toward adolescent sexuality: transcultural perspectives.
Teenage pregnancy continues to impact private and public resources in America. 1 key factor for nurse practitioners teaching sex education is to keep in mind the differing attitudes various cultural groups have toward teenage sex. A study of Cuban and Haitian child-rearing practices demonstrates such cultural differences. 30 Cuban and 30 Haitian mothers composed the voluntary sample obtained through the Dade County Health Department and local churches. The sample consisted of women born and raised in Cuba or Haiti who had resided in the US for 4 years or less and had children ranging in age from infancy through adolescence. Subjects were interviewed in their homes using a 110-item questionnaire adapted from the FIELD GUIDE FOR A STUDY OF SOCIALIZATION. The Cuban female learned about menstruation at a median age of 10 years. For 85% of the sample, this information was obtained from their mothers or in school classes. Most children learned about sex from sex education classes at school or through parent-child discussions. Intercourse was explained as being a normal process of human reproduction. Haitian females, on the other hand, were introduced to the topic of menstruation at the onset of the menses (at about age 13). Only 26% of the Haitian mothers stated that parents or schools provided such information. When parents gave such information, it centered around being careful around boys to avoid pregnancy. 50% of Haitian mothers did not know when children learned about intercourse since it was never discussed with children. Parents who did discuss sex with their children focused on the negative consequences of unplanned pregnancy. Nurse practitioners must consider the fact that Cuban parents expect the school system to take the initiative in providing health education instruction for their children. The nurse practitioner's most effective role may be to assist in developing school-based sex education programs and working with parent-teacher associations to encourage parent participation in school programs. Haitian clients require a different approach. Nurse practitioners may find it difficult to engage Haitian parents in discussions about sex education and reproduction since these topics are not necessarily considered to be health-related and are not discussed with strangers. One alternative would be for health care providers to join forces with social service agencies who often have Haitian personnel serving residential enclaves of Haitians. The challenge to nurse practitioners is to demonstrate respect for cultural traditions while planning interventions which are mutually acceptable and satisfying. (author's modified)
On measuring living arrangements of older individuals in comparative studies.
A significant body of literature in gerontology has debated the relative importance of culture and socioeconomic factors in explaining cross-national differences in the living arrangements of the elderly population. Unfortunately, this literature has not adopted a standard method of measuring living arrangements. This note compares the measures that have been adopted and, using data from countries in Latin America, Asia, Northwest Europe, and North America, discusses how different contrasts emerge when different measures are used. The authors recommend the use of a classification scheme that recognizes major life-course factors while using few categories. The preferred household classification scheme considers whether the family household is simple or complex (where the 2nd is defined by a 2nd conjugal unit). (author's modified)
Issues in smoothing empirical hazard rates.
This paper presents a smooth estimator of the hazard rate using a running log linear specification that allows investigators to maintain only mild assumptions about the functional forms of population heterogeneity and time inhomogeneity in the rate. This estimator is useful both in exploratory data analyses and in checking common parametric assumptions. Examples drawn from the transition to 1st marriage for women in the US show that several common parametric assumptions are violated in these data and illustrate that the smoothed hazard estimator can yield important insights not easily obtained from conventional parametric methods. (author's)
U.S. immigration in the 1980s: reappraisal and reform.
This book examines immigration 1st in terms of its effects on the US and the problems or advantages it brings to a rapidly changing society. It looks at the unrest and demographic forces at work beyond the US borders and considers the options, prospects, and obstacles for effective and humane management of immigration into the US in the service of clear national goals. While attentive to the past, the contributors to this volume look more to the future, to the American society of tomorrow that present immigration is relentlessly reshaping. The book includes sections on 1) immigration and US workers, 2) immigration and national unity, 3) California and immigration, 4) Mexican immigration, and 5) immigration policy.
Overview--a time of reform and reappraisal.
American immigration's watershed event in the 1980s was the enactment in November 1986 of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). In the 1980s, Americans became more concerned about immigration. The 1980 Mariel Boatlift crystallized these concerns, but it was just 1 of several events which created "compassion fatigue." From 1965, illegal immigration had continually increased. Final passage of a reform package in 1986 was a legislative miracle. The House of Representatives passed employer sanctions in 1972 and in 1973, but the notion was killed by the conservative Senate. Attempted reforms in 1982 and 1984 also failed. President Reagan was ambivalent toward the reform legislation because of countervailing pressures of different allied interest groups. He signed the IRCA bill only after the congressional elections. The bill included a compromise, which granted permanent resident status to any illegal alien who could prove he had been working in agriculture for at least 20 days. The Hispanic caucus voted yes for the bill, despite their earlier objection that employer sanctions would discriminate against Hispanic Americans and other "foreign-looking" persons. Both liberals and conservatives voted for the bill. A clear factor in the bill's passage was wide recognition that the problem was getting worse. The law could be the turning point in regaining control of the borders, or it could usher in vast additional waves of immigration. Employer sanctions must be enforced.
Seeking common ground for blacks and immigrants.
This chapter examines 1) the impact of legal and illegal immigrants on blacks in low wage jobs in the secondary labor market, 2) the attitudes of blacks toward immigration reform before passage of the immigration act, 3) the voting positions of black congress members on the immigration reform and control bills of 1984 and 1986, and 4) the likely impact of the act on blacks living in areas with high concentration of recent immigrants and refugees. Illegal migrants tend to dominate certain work forces because immigrants eventually gain control of midlevel supervisory positions and job recruitment. Undocumented workers often cause job displacement through the use of occupational kinship networks. Employment sectors once filled by black workers became dominated by immigrants receiving low wages. Blacks have been increasingly shut out of jobs because of "linguistic" discrimination. Public policies should be shaped by values that promote economic equity for all citizens. Polls show that blacks perceive serious job competition with Hispanic workers as a fact. Both recent polls of black views on immigration and periodic reports in the media of certain black behavior towards immigrants and refugees suggest strongly that most blacks favor immigration reform to halt illegal immigration and to reduce legal immigration. Until 1986, curbs on illegal immigration had virtually no support among blacks in Congress, for a variety of reasons. Some felt that the flawed legislation would neither end the use of easily exploited foreign agricultural workers nor secure the border and be fair for many illegal aliens. The reasons for the shift from opposition in 1984 to a slim majority favoring the bill in 1986 include such factors as constituent pressure to support legalization and pressure from non-black congressional colleagues to favor a much needed bill. Unless the Immigration and Naturalization Service rigorously enforces the provisions for employer sanctions, few blacks will gain the jobs left by undocumented workers. If wages and working conditions improve nationwide in the secondary labor market, blacks should come out ahead overall. Public schools must achieve the proper racial and ethnic composition of administrators and faculty. The major responsibility for effective leadership in assimilating recent immigrants, refugees, and illegal aliens lies with the federal government.
Hispanic Americans: the debased coin of citizenship.
Various negative trends are threatening Hispanic Americans as a whole. A major constraint is that the number of entry-level manufacturing jobs that have aided the socioeconomic advancement of previous generations is diminishing. Simultaneously, economic dislocation and a changed political climate have weakened the political will to maintain social programs for the disadvantaged. Illegal immigration worsens the problems in Hispanic American communities. Hispanics are the 2nd largest minority group in the US. Continued rapid expansion of the Hispanic segment through illegal immigration impedes the socioeconomic advance of Hispanic Americans as a whole. For the 1st time in US history, a majority of immigrants derive from a common cultural background and speak a common language. Today Hispanics seek economic and social advancement in an economy which reserves high-wage jobs for scientifically and technically educated workers. Illegal alien workers probably adversely affect Puerto Ricans more than any other group. The earnings of white, non-Hispanic immigrants usually equal those of native whites within 10-15 years after arrival in the US. Mexicans wait about 15 years; Puerto Ricans wait about 25 years. Illegal aliens come to the US for jobs, not for social services. However, the prospects for such assistance may become an additional incentive for potential illegal aliens. A housing shortage exists in the US, and is worsened by competition for housing between illegal aliens and Hispanics. Although numbers are increasing, Hispanics show less inclination to participate in the political process than non-Hispanic immigrants. Most US Hispanics oppose illegal immigration. The problem for Hispanic Americans is not immigration but 1) the unusually large number of immigrants, 2) the predominance of a single source country or common culture, 3) the illegal status of many immigrants, and 4) the rate of their entry. Continued illegal immigration and heightened legal immigration may further impede Hispanic American attempts to ascend the socioeconomic ladder.
Immigration and the national interest.
In the US, individuals and families make approximately 90% of the decisions about who will be allowed to immigrate legally and 100% of the decisions about illegal immigration. The present state of immigration harms the economic well-being of the US. Many see immigration as a benefit, believing that more labor of any kind is a benefit without costs. But the costs do outweigh the benefits. Immigration 1) causes significant job displacement, 2) retards the structural evolution of the US economy, and 3) increases the US population (which leads the most environmentally damaging and resource-depleting lifestyle in human history). Since the 1965 immigration act, immigration flows overwhelmingly from non-European and lesser-developed nations. The research community has discovered what ordinary citizens have long been saying, that immigration is altering society and these changes should be discussed. People fear that US society will become Balkanized, deeply divided along ethno-cultural, and to some extent corresponding class lines. Mounting evidence exists that the host society cannot absorb, or is not absorbing, enormous numbers of immigrants on terms of mutual benefit. Some people assume that the US will be able to assimilate its immigrants as it has done in the past. However, conditions have changed. In 1921, immigration was restructured, by national origin, which improved income distribution and allowed advancement. 1 view holds that mass immigration does not "drive up the next group in line," but hampers the progress of previous arrivals. Another great difference is that the pre-war immigration coincided with a huge need for low and semi-skilled labor. The US now has ethnically-secluded work sites. A majority of migrants speak 1 language (Spanish), and most live in ethnic enclaves which resist assimilation. The poor and the Hispanic American have the most to lose from uncontrolled immigration. The US should 1) curb or end illegal immigration, 2) move its immigration away from near complete reliance upon the principle of family reunification, and 3) allow immigration for the labor force needs of the national economy and the ends of a national policy on population size.
A kind of discordant harmony: issues in assimilation.
In the US, the majority is intimately involved in assimilating minorities. The degree of cultural assimilation which American society has expected of immigrants has changed significantly over time. The 1st attitude (which began in the late 1800s) was that America was a "melting pot," where people of many nationalities and languages could come together and live in discordant harmony while they assimilated to the national norm. The migrant received liberty and economic rewards. The US received cheap labor and psychological gratification from being regarded as the land of opportunity. In 1915 Horace Kallen challenged the idea of complete cultural metamorphosis and proposed the concept of "cultural pluralism." Cultural pluralism would encourage the maintenance of the individual's ethnic group ties and culture of origin; the US would be an amalgam of its many separate cultural parts. In the 1960s the black pride movement provided a model and basis upon which other ethnic groups could build. There has been a shift in the relative importance of being American, as opposed to belonging to a distinct racial, cultural, or ethnic subgroup. The salad bowl metaphor for this approach conveys a mixture in which the elements combine without losing their individual character. A combination of powerful forces impede assimilation, such as 1) immigration is at the highest level in US history, 2) a majority of migrants speak 1 language--Spanish, and 3) many new migrants will maintain ties with their home countries. Studies show that 1) many Mexican migrants don't identify themselves as American, and 2) while the Spanish language is becoming the most important mechanism for preserving Hispanic cultural identity, most other traditions associated with Hispanic culture are weakening. However, the trend toward Americanization is occurring. At present, the US is trying to lessen the need for migrants to assimilate. But anti-discrimination remedies cannot help those who are in the throes of assimilation. The truly open and accepting society will work hard to facilitate the assimilation and integration of immigrants into itself; it will not create special exemptions, special ghettos to isolate immigrants and preserve their differences. The clearly stated goal of US society must be the integration of ethnic minorities within the mainstream culture.
Immigration, population change and California's future.
This article examines population growth and composition in California from 1980-2030 and looks at the broad picture--social, cultural, economic. It emphasizes 1) the number and types of Californians in the years 2000 and 2030, 2) the size and composition of the labor force and the related issues that result from changes in population size, and 3) the effect of such demographic shifts on the social and cultural environment. Rapid population growth has always prevailed in California. 25% of all foreign-born persons living in the US reside in California, as do 10% of Americans. Nearly 1/3 of all Hispanics and almost 40% of all Asian-Americans in the US live in California. This discussion presents conservative population projections, using the 1980 Census as the base population. Fertility for all ethnic groups will converge at 1.8 by 2030. For Non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, and blacks, life expectancy will be 80 years by 2030. Migration will not be as enormous as some predict. By 2030, California's population will exceed 42 million. By 2000, Non-Hispanic whites will compose just over 1/2 the total population of the state. In 2030, Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites will each represent 38% of the total population. Asians will compose 15% of the population by 2030. Like the US as a whole, California is aging. In 1980 9.5% of all Californians were 65 or over. In 2030, almost 17% of the population will be 65 or over. In 2030, almost 44% of children under 15 will be Hispanic, 32.1% will be Non-Hispanic white, 17% Asian, and 6.3% black. In 1980 California's labor force was 12 million people. By 2000, it will be 17.5 million and by 2030, 22.7 million. More women and immigrants are in the labor force and account for an increasing share of the growth in the work force. There will be a slower-growing and older work force and an easier school-to-work transition for most Non-Hispanic white adolescents, but persisting minority youth unemployment. Language will be 1 of California's most vexing issues as the state adjusts to a population changing rapidly in both age and racial and ethnic composition. Between 1980 and 2000 the Hispanic school-age population will grow from 1.4 to 2.6 million. In 2030, it will pass 3.6 million and outnumber non-Hispanic whites and blacks combined. Between 1980 and 2030, those aged 65 and older will grow from 2.2 to 7.1 million. Non-Hispanic whites will remain a majority of the retired population, but in declining proportion. Language will become an even more complex issue in the future.
Immigration in the Golden State: the tarnished dream.
This article examines 2 studies on the nature and effects of legal and illegal migration from Mexico to California, particularly southern California. One study is by the Rand Corporation, the other by the Urban Institute. Both studies virtually ignore the difference between legal and illegal immigration. Both presented their summaries, apparently designed to minimize the adverse effects of immigration, before the full reports were available. The reports do not discuss 1) the extent of unemployment in California, and how different it might have been with lower levels of international immigration; 2) the impact of illegal migration to California on jobs and businesses outside California; 3) the indirect costs to taxpayers of welfare rolls burdened with those displaced by illegal immigrants; and 4) the impact of illegal immigration on legally-admitted, jobless refugees. These and other studies show that 1) immigration displaces workers, to a degree dependent on the looseness or tightness of labor markets and the nature of those markets; 2) there is no justification for illegal immigration in a society that believes in the rule of the law; 3) to protect labor standards, there must be vigorous enforcement of labor standards and tighter controls on illegal immigration; 4) US employers must refrain from hiring illegal aliens and improve productivity to provide better employment opportunities for legal residents; and 5) it is not whether or not illegals produce net fiscal benefits, but whether people use the services they need. Finally, illegal immigration is not an adequate solution to conditions in migrants' home countries. The US should work through national and international economic institutions to improve conditions in these countries, rather than putting the burden upon low wage American workers who can least afford to aid these developing countries.
Mexico's dilemma: finding a million jobs a year.
Mexico's labor force will have risen from 14.4 million in 1970 to 40.4 million in the year 2000. This rapid growth will have critical implications for the country's social and economic order. Mexican legal and illegal immigration began to climb sharply in the mid-1960s. Long term migration pressures will depend greatly on the health of the Mexican economy and the quality of Mexico's political life and its success in improving the distribution of income. Mexico's strategy of economic development for more than 30 years has favored investment in costly state-owned industries or in large scale commercial agriculture for export, to the neglect of small farmers. Mexico must develop new export products and expand existing exports. Many factors have caused heavy underemployment on Mexico's small farms, low productivity, and drift to the cities. The national development plan for 1983-1988 stressed job creation. However, the question is whether additional labor-intensive jobs, even if adequate in numbers, will offer the remuneration, security, and satisfaction necessary to hold young Mexican workers who might perceive more attractive work in the US. In March 1986, Mexican economist Victor Urquidi estimated that 3.5 million of Mexico's 24 million labor force were unemployed and 9 million were underemployed. Under optimistic growth projections, Mexico will be unlikely to create the more than 900,000 jobs it needs annually. An employment growth of 3% would still leave Mexico with 7.7 million unemployed and 9 million underemployed in 2000. At a 2% employment growth rate, Mexico would create 55% of the jobs needed each year. Even 2% is an optimistic projection given Mexico's current economic performance. All conditions indicate heavy incentives for migration northward. The course of Mexico's politics may affect immigration as much as will economic trends. Recent history and current events suggest 4 possible directions for Mexican politics to the year 2000, with varying potential to shape migration trends: 1) maintenance of the status quo, which would be likely to reinforce other motives to migrate; 2) democratization and reform, which could stimulate progress and encourage people to remain; 3) dictatorship of the right or left, which would likely encourage emigration; and 4) a breakdown of order, which would send huge numbers to the US. Solutions include 1) political reform, 2) increased emphasis on family planning, 3) enlightened trade, aid, and investment policies toward Mexico, and 4) tightening of immigration enforcement.
In late 1986, the US enacted penalties against employers of illegal aliens, a legislative concept that major European democracies have accepted for over a decade. In Europe, effective enforcement did not come immediately or automatically. Europe and the US have similar immigration problems. Both 1) are industrial, with high standards of living; 2) have long-standing ties with developing countries, and 3) have had unsuccessful immigration law enforcement. Differences between the US and Europe include: 1) the US has a higher demand for unskilled workers; 2) Europeans regard immigration as an option to meet labor needs, while in the US, immigration becomes an end in itself; and 3) by European standards, America's non-system of personal identification has few safeguards against counterfeiting or fraud. Offsetting some of the enforcement handicaps in the US is a stronger tradition among Americans of voluntary compliance with laws. It was enlightened self-interest that convinced Western Europe's most powerful employer group to endorse employer sanctions. A clear message of the European experience is that enforcement of employer sanctions gets best results when closely coupled with enforcement of labor laws. Europeans learned that the clearest test of a government's determination to enforce employer sanctions effectively is its willingness to commit the resources in money and trained personnel needed. The European experience also argues for closer cooperation among Cabinet level agencies. As a result of testimony to Congress about the European situation, our reform legislation applied sanctions to those who knowingly use "contracts, sub-contracts, or exchanges" to hire illegal aliens. The cooperation of employers is critical. It will take time and patient leadership for the public, employers of illegal aliens, public officials at all levels, smugglers and illegal aliens themselves to realize that employer sanctions are now law. The Immigration and Naturalization Service should 1) crete a single secure ID document for all with work authorization and 2) seek reinstatement of the annual alien registration requirement ended in 1981. Employer sanctions can help provide an opportunity for jobs and better wages for the millions of citizens and legal residents who are now jobless or working part-time. Employer sanctions are just 1 way to guard against illegal immigration. In addition, the US should better manage the labor force, and create and enforce manpower, law enforcement, and economic policies.
Principles vs. expediency in U.S. immigration policy.
Only a few countries, such as the US, Pakistan, Australia, and Canada, are nations of immigration. Restriction is the norm in European countries. The international law, accepted by 97 nations, calls for extending refugee status to those with a well-founded fear of persecution. However, most nations place national interest above international law in setting refugee policies. Patterns of recent refugee migrations include 1) most refugees have been created by communist dictatorships, 2) wealthier democratic countries will take refugees primarily when they have a historic tie, and 3) asylum policy is mainly a function of foreign policy. The US has politicized its asylum policy in violation of the 1951 UN convention, the 1961 Protocol of the United Nations on refugees, and its own Refugee Act of 1980. Successive American administrations have favored refugees from communist countries, despite the elimination in the Refugee Act of ideological and geographic considerations. To help depoliticize the process of allocating refugees, numbers should be provided for political prisoners, victims of torture, and persons under the threat of death, regardless of their ability to establish a well founded fear of persecution based on racial, religious, or political grounds. The most flagrant example of the politicization of asylum policy is the unusually high rate of denials for Salvadorans, Guatemalans, and Haitians, despite the known facts of instability, killing, and oppression in those countries. The US does not want to provide incentive for a multitude of new asylum applicants, nor does it want to convey the impression that there is persecution and oppression under a government it strongly supports. The US should depoliticize the administration of asylum law by the narrowing of administrative discretion in the granting of asylum claims. Economic opportunity migration is even greater than refugee migration. Many countries have labor recruitment programs. Migration itself cannot solve the problem of the economic inequality of nations. The basic values and institutions of American society have been strengthened by recent lawful immigrants from developing countries, and the US would probably benefit from slightly higher levels of immigration in the late 1980s. The US should begin to build a secure system of employee eligibility with sanctions against employers who willfully hire those ineligible to work while also legalizing a large proportion of the illegal aliens already and increasing lawful immigration, including immigration not based on family reunification.
The U.S. refugee industry: doing well by doing good.
In 1980, the US Congress passed the Refugee Act, consolidating and modernizing the refugee-related laws and creating new programs of assistance. It established massive federal payment programs to cooperating private organizations, creating a refugee resettlement industry with sizeable bureaucracies who depend on federal money. The self-interest of these organizations has induced them to push the American refugee program toward questionable policies. The refugee industry's insistence that the US take large numbers of refugees in disregard of the law's criteria, undermines the fragile international cooperation mechanisms assembled in the last decade. If a backlash against refugee admissions is triggered by abusing the US's generosity, even legitimate refugees might be hurt. The sharply reduced number of qualified refugees in Southeast Asia is posing the greatest danger the resettlement industry has faced. Very few current Southeast Asian migrants qualify as refugees under international law. The distorted criteria applied in refugee admissions have contributed to the view that they are merely an alternative, expedited form of immigration. Originally, the US did not pay resettlement organizations. However, the need to resettle hundreds of thousands of Southeast Asian refugees in a short time helped create the US's current dilemma. Refugee resettlement decisions have been distorted because of their management by the State Department. As the refugee industry grew, it developed the religious and humanitarian bases for its own legitimacy and permanence. These voluntary agencies are powerful. The international community now recognizes that the African model of temporary refugee, followed by repatriation, is desirable. The new international concept, "shaping out," recognizes the international character of the burden of resettlement. However, as internal political pressures in the US keep resettlement numbers high, the US is undercutting the international efforts to reduce refugee flows and resettlement burdens. The current admission of so many unqualified "refugees" at a cost of billions of dollars threatens the political will to admit any refugees, no matter how valid their claim for assistance. The lessons learned by the rest of the world should guide the US in the future.
The US should seek as small a population increase as possible, which will require the control of illegal immigration and the legal limitation to annual numbers approximating the 1920-1970 rate. Immigration presently constitutes about 40% of America's population growth, and the proportion is rising. Increased population has affected the environment through by-products of new technologies (such as fossil fuel, nuclear energy, and new chemicals), which cause acid rain, destroy forests, and change the world climate. Population growth intensifies the socioeconomic and environmental problems of the nation. Immigration is presently the key element in demographic policy. The US in some ways is already beyond its carrying capacity. The US should try to avoid large population increases until it has arrived at sustainability for its population. This guideline should be reexamined periodically to decide if it is too strict or too lenient. The object is to provide the most congenial environment for human life, including respect for plant and animal life. One plan immigration policy could call for is a net annual migration flow of 250,000, including refugees and immediate families. This would add about 6% to the US population when it stabilizes about 2030. In addition, illegal immigration must be strictly controlled. There are 3 lines of argument that seek to undermine this rationale or make it impossible to pursue such a national policy by subordinating national interest to factional interest: 1) pronatalism which argues that more people are needed to maintain national power against growing population in other countries, 2) humanitarian concern should take precedence over concerns about the effects of immigration upon the US, and 3) the viewing of assimilation as colonialism by the existing establishment against minorities and arguing for the preservation of linguistic and cultural separation. The author counters that 1) the pronatalist viewpoint has not been supported historically or by systematic reasoning; 2) conscience should begin at home and the "brain drain" robs developing countries of needed talents; and 3) ethnic separation encourages alienation, estrangement, and competition. The basis for good immigration policy exists only when people agree that the national interest is legitimate and the paramount criterion for national decisions.
Early adolescence is a period marked by profuse transitions. Children are exposed to the rigid constraints of their peers, their teachers, their own bodies and innate drives, and their preoccupation with acquiring and protecting a marketable image. It is not surprising that many social catastrophes appear to have their beginnings here, including delinquency, unplanned pregnancy, severe depression, and suicide. Mastering the challenges of early adolescence is critical to future success. The important developmental phase is worthy of careful scholarly examination from various professional perspectives including pediatricians, psychiatrists, educators, and public health officials. This collection of articles surveys a range of diverse influences upon early adolescents and includes such topics as: 1) the effects of poverty, divorce, and remarriage as major deterrents and/or facilitators of development, 2) processes involved in the normal or perturbed onset of puberty, 3) emergent sexuality within the social context, 4) sexually transmitted diseases, 5) school performance and linguistic competence, and 6) psychosocial maladjustment. Suggestions are also included for dealing with both physiological and psychological transitions. (author's modified)
Proceedings of the International Collaborative Effort on Perinatal and Infant Mortality, volume II.
On November 18, 1985, members of the International Collaborative Effort on Perinatal and Infant Mortality participated in an American Public Health Association session to show the status of their research. Subsequent to this conference, the members convened a seminar to detail their various research activities and to discuss their current research methodologies. The Planning Group's papers and discussions entailed a review of the complex and comprehensive issues in the health field which are critical with respect to perinatal and infant mortality. This volume offers a number of insights and approaches for enhancing perinatal and infant health. The research, the methodologies, the risk assessment, and the prevention efforts suggest certain strategies that, if utilized, may reduce perinatal and infant mortality. A number of the papers in this report offer evidence of successful interventions which hold promise for other nations to emulate. The Japanese experience with respect to infant mortality is significant. They attribute their success in this area to a concerted national effort to provide both prevention and education programs, as well maternal and infant care programs. The population has historically embraced the goverment's goals, and it continues to support these efforts by active participation in and compliance with the required health practices. Their innovative and far-reaching approach has achieved the goal of reducing infant and maternal mortality. The methodology undertaken in Sweden appears to have also been successful in achieving a low infant and perinatal mortality rate. As with the Japanese concept, the methodology employed in Sweden is comprehensive and national in nature. Both nations have not only ensured that the population accepts the critical importance of infant and maternal health care but have also succeeded in instilling in the population the conviction that this type of health care is reasonable, necessary, and obligatory. Their programs suggest that their accomplishments can be applied to maternal and infant care in other countries. Other papers included in this volume offer perspectives that can help guide, foster an awareness, and establish a foundation for implementing various innovations and programs which met the needs of the population in many different nations.
Annual summary of births, marriages, divorces, and deaths: United States, 1987.
This report presents statistics on the births, marriages, divorces, and deaths in the US for 1987. Some highlights of the data follow. 1) An estimated 3,829,000 babies were born in the US during 1987, 3% more than in 1986, and the largest number reported since 1964. 2) The birth rate was 15.7 live births/1000 population. The fertility rate of 66.1 live births/1000 women aged 15-44 was 2% higher than the 1986 rate of 64.9. 3) During 1987, an estimated 1,702,000 persons were added to the population as a result of natural increase. The rate of natural increase in 1987 was 7 persons /1000 population, 3% above the 6.8 rate for 1986. 4) More couples married in 1987 (2,421,000) than in 1986 (2,400,000). However, the national marriage rate fell by 1% from 10/1000 population in 1986 to 9.9 in 1987. 5) The estimated number of divorces for the US fell less than 1% between 1986 and 1987, from 1,159,000 to 1,157,000. The divorce rate for 1987, 4.8/1000 population, was the same as the rate for 1986. 6) During 1987 an estimated 2,127,000 deaths occurred in the US, the greatest number ever recorded. 7) Age-adjusted death rates for major race-sex groups showed no statistically significant changes between 1986 and 1987, except for white males. The lowest estimate age-adjusted death rate was for white females (386.9 deaths/100,000 population), followed by black females (579.9), white males (671), and black males (1005.4). The white male rate was over 1% lower than the rate for 1986. 8) Life expectancy in 1987 was 74.9 years, the same as in 1986. 9) The leading causes of death for 1979-1987 have been the same, but the order has often varied. In 1987, the order remained as it was in 1986; heart disease, malignant neoplasms, cerebrovascular diseases, accidents, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases are the top 5. 10) The infant mortality rate for 1987 was 10/1000 live births, 4% lower than the 10.4 for 1986 and the lowest US rate ever recorded. 11) The estimated total number of deaths due to HIV infection during 1987 was 13,130. 65% were white males, 25% were black males, 4-5% were white females, and 4-5% were black females.
Proceedings of the Workshop on Needs and Resources for Occupational Mortality Data.
This report contains the proceedings of the Workshop on Needs and Resources for Occupational Mortality Data, January 21-22, 1987. The Workshop was sponsored by the National Center for Health Statistics, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. The use of industry and occupation data from death certificates and the history of coding these data in mortality data bases are reviewed. Options for future occupational mortality data coding are developed and discussed by agency representatives and working groups of workshop participants. Evaluation of the options include criteria of timeliness, geographic and occupational coverage and detail, data quality, surveillance capability, cost, and relevance to State and national research. (author's)
The older population in the US has grown twice as fast as the rest of the population in the last 20 years. This growth is expected to accelerate early in the next century as the large baby boom cohorts move through middle age and become elderly. Today, about 1 in 8 Americans is 65 years of age or older. By 2030, 1 out of every 4 persons will be in older person. Substantial improvements in life expectancy at all ages, particularly at extreme old age, mean that not only will there be a greater proportion of elderly in the population, but the more will be the "oldest-old," over 85. By 2050, they will be more than 1/4 of the population. As people live longer, many are active and healthy well past retirement. However, many individuals living into their 80s have to cope with chronic disabilities affecting their capacity to perform day-to-day activities. Modern medicine has made great inroads against mortality from such illnesses as heart disease and stroke, but has not eliminated all the effects of these diseases. As the population ages, the issues of health care funding and availability, particularly long-term care, increase in importance. Contrary to widespread belief, the elderly are not abandoned by their families to nursing home care. The vast majority--95%--live in the community. Those needing assistance generally receive help from family and friends. This has created a tremendous demand for federal subsidies to support community-based long-term care services. 1/4 of the federal budget is now spent on the elderly--$270 billion in 1986. Medicaid and Medicare are among the government's success stories, but these programs are threatened by their very success. Economists estimate that government expenditures are 3 times greater for the elderly than for children, raising the issue of "intergenerational equity"--how to balance the amount of care society provides to those who have already contributed with what is provided to those who will contribute in the future. The view that the young and old simply compete for fixed resources is misleading. It ignores the interdependence among generations, and the burdens and benefits of intergenerational transfers at all stages of the life course. (author's)
The issue--and controversy--surrounding adolescent sexuality and abstinence.
This SIECUS report is devoted to adolescent sexuality. Articles include 1) The Issue--and Controversy--Surrounding Adolescent Sexuality and Abstinence, 2) Safe Sex and Teens, 3) The Sex Respect Curriculum: Is 'Just Say No' Effective? 4) Assessing the Health of Sex Education in a Time of Dis-Ease: the S.U.R.E. Method, 5) Homophobia and Sexuality Education: The Story of the Clinic's Experience in New Hampshire. An annotated SIECUS bibliography of print and audiovisual materials available on AIDS and safe sex education is also included.
The most recent study of the carrying capacity of the earth finds that even at low levels of input, the lands of the developing countries can produce sufficient food for 1 1/2 times the projected population in the year 2000. With moderate levels of inputs, these lands could produce sufficient food for 4 times the projected population. Asia's 3 billion is a triumph over the stubborn earth, but it also represents a massive challenge to Asia's leaders and people. The challenges lie in relieving the burden of rapid population growth, completing the transformation of agriculture, raising employment and welfare, dealing with the new problems of an aging population, and facing the severe problem of environmental degradation. A clear triumph is the decline in mortality rates. Other triumphs include increases in rice production and other cereals, a growing (although slowly) economically active population, and increasing levels of educational attainment. The 5 major challenges include 1) reducing the population growth rate, 2) completing the transformation of agriculture, 3) providing jobs for the labor force, 4) dealing with the emerging new problem of aging, and 5) protecting the environment. Fertility rates must be lowered. The agricultural transformation must be completed. Rice yields which stood at 1 ton/hectare at the turn of the century can now reach 6 tons/hectare. This rise in rice yields is far more than merely increasing outputs; it marks the transformation from traditional peasant production to modern farming. Providing jobs for the coming population increase represents another dimension of the challenge. With the projected declines in fertility and population growth rates, Asia will face a totally new set of challenges in dealing with the problem of aging. Finally, there is the most pressing challenge of all--the challenge of environmental protection. This is a challenge for the whole world, but more specifically for Asian leaders and their peoples.
Reasons for under-utilization of health services--a case study of a PHC in a tribal area of Bihar.
Despite the growth of the Indian health and family welfare program in the last 30 years, infant mortality has changed little in the last decade and maternal mortality remains high. This study examines the primary health care (PHC) in an unnamed area in Bihar in 1982. Data was obtained by participant observation and interviews with doctors, PHC staff, and the community. The study area is 1 of the least developed in Bihar. The public health infrastructure consists of a PHC and 8 subcenters. In the 8-day observation period, an average of 27 patients came to PHC per day. This is a much lower average than more developed areas such as Gujarat and Kerala which average 69 and 84 per day, respectively. About 48% of the patients were aged 0-14. The proportion of female patients was lower in all the age groups except those over age 45. 71% of those over age 5 were illiterate. The average family size was 5.7. Most patients came from within 3 km to the PHC; 97.7% walked. Patients waited an average of 72 minutes to see the doctor for an average of 1.4 minutes. During the month of the study, no patient came for maternal and child health or family planning care. There were supposed to be 4 doctors at the PHC, but only 1 ever came. That one was supposed to be at the PHC all day, but spent the morning until 11/am in his own private practice. Some patients went to see him in private practice instead of the PHC. Women preferred to go to the nearby Missionary Hospital where they could see female doctors for maternity and gynecological problems. The client/worker ratio for the PHC was too high; it was physically impossible to serve the needs of most people. The doctor said that training was insufficient; none of the workers had family planning skills. Medicine supplies never met the demands and needs of the patients. PHC provided services for vasectomies, pills, and condoms, but not for IUDs and tubectomies. The PHC did not have a vehicle so all field work was done on foot. The extension work was poor; the subcenters were almost non-functioning. The supervision of the subcenters was almost negligible. Workers had little or no interest in working in rural areas. The main problem was the sociopolitical structure of the state. Some recommendations are 1) PHC doctors should stop their private practices, 2) the power structure should be decentralized, 3) better transport facilities should be provided, 4) workers should be retrained in family planning work, 5) a female doctor should be provided, 6) proper staff accommodation should be provided, and 7) adequate supply of medicine should be available.
A model to study changes in current fertility under different sex preferences.
This paper proposes a mathematical model to examine changes in current fertility under different sex preferences at the macro level and applies the model to Indian data. The results regarding the effect of sex preference on fertility are basically consistent with the findings of other related studies, although this model examines the effects on current fertility measures. The expected total fertility rate or the birth rate of the population increases with increasing preference for 1 sex over the other. Even if couples wish to have 1 son and 1 daughter and continue to have children until they achieve their desired composition, the total fertility rate or the birth rate of the population would always be higher than it would be if they stop at 2 children irrespective of the sex. Nevertheless, the results further reveal that the present birth rate in India could be reduced by 48% even if the couples are allowed to have 1 son and 1 daughter.
Estimates of birth rates for some African countries with two censuses.
This paper examines 2 recent methods (Coale and Preston-Coale) for estimating birth rates based on 2 census age-sex distributions, with reference to sub-Saharan Africa. The object of the paper is to estimate birth rate by the 2 methods for 8 English-speaking African countries with 2 censuses, and to compare their relative strengths in the statistically less developed African countries. Results show that except for Ghana, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, the adjusted birth rates are very close for the 2 methods. The estimates obtained by the application of the Preston integrated method to the data of females in the last census give relatively high estimates. Although the original Coale method is based on the simple principle of reverse surviving population under age 15, the method leads to birth rate estimates very close to those obtainable by more complex methods based on generalized stable population equations.
Post-child mortality estimates for the major states of India: 1971-1981.
This paper computes and examines male and female life expectancy at age 5 for the intercensal period 1971-1981 for India and its major states. After preliminary adjustments of the data, the authors derive life expectancy at age 5 for the major states. For India, excluding Assam, female life expectancy has increased by 6.7 years, from 53.2 years in the 1961-1971 to 59.9 years in 1971-1981. A statewide comparison of the 1971-1981 results indicates that Haryana has the highest female life expectancy (67.3 years) and Orissa the lowest (51.3 years). Haryana has the largest absolute improvement in post-child mortality, an increase of 11.2 years. The authors also compute male life expectancy for the states, which reveal some differences. For example, in Uttar Pradesh, male life expectancy increased 4.5 years between 1961-1971 and 1971-1981, while for women, it increased 10.4 years. Other states, such as Karnataka, Gujarat, West Bengal, Haryana, and Punjab, showed little or no difference between male and female life expectancy. The accuracy of the estimates depends upon the input data. If intercensal emigrants from a state are omitted, the method underestimates life expectancy. Also, substantial immigrants between 2 censuses inflate estimates of post-child mortality. Another cause of bias in the estimates is omissions in the censuses. Improvement in the latter census count relative to the former results in an overestimate of post-child mortality. A 3rd factor which may distort estimates is misreporting of age data, a pervasive phenomenon in Indian population data.
On the distribution of interior birth intervals.
This paper derives a probability distribution for interior birth intervals with a provision that the renewal (birth) densities change over time due to the use of some contraceptives, by a proportion of women in the community, of which effectiveness must be measured. This distribution can be applied to observations relating to interior birth intervals compiled either for a longitudinal survey or from different age segments of women's reproductive life.
A stochastic model of urbanisation in India.
This paper predicts the future path of urbanization in India, based on a diffusion process approximation assuming time and state space as continuous. Employing the log normal diffusion process approximation, the author projects the urban proportion for the years 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021. Results show that 1) the larger cities, the faster they grow in the future; and 2) the proportion of people living in smaller towns declines with the passage of time. If the present pattern of urbanization continues, the proportion of urban population living in cities with over 100,000 inhabitants will nearly double by the year 2021 (from 13.8 to 26.9%), whereas the proportion in cities with 50,000-99,999 inhabitants will rise from 2.7 to 4.9% and the proportion in cities with 20,000-49,999 inhabitants will rise from 3.3 to 4.2%. Rural to urban and urban to urban migration may account for the fast growth of the largest cities. Low employment potential in smaller towns with low industrial development, migration of people towards big cities, and the upgrading of smaller towns to higher classes of towns may be the causes of the slow growth of the smaller towns.
Punjabi orchard farmers: an immigrant enclave in rural California.
Examination of the adaptation patterns of Punjabi Sikh orchard farmers in rural California provides further evidence of ways in which strong ethnic enclaves help to promote rapid economic self-sufficiency among immigrant groups. The discussion emphasizes the need to consider not only the cultural traditions of group members, but also the historical context of immigration and the immigrants' perceptions of their particular situation. The Punjabi case indicates, too, how the 1965 Immigration Act, with its preference for family reunification, has promoted the formation of immigrant enclave. (author's)
This study attempts to explain differences between Britain and Canada in the reception given to immigrant racial minorities in the post-war years. It is suggested that among the factors relevant to this explanation, importance should be attributed to cross-national differences in the institutional structure of immigration itself. Supporting comparative evidence comes from published research, public opinion polls, newspaper records, parliamentary debates, and the legislative records. The institutional structure of immigration differed between Britain and Canada in ways that appear to have affected race relations. These institutions, imbedded in national and international economic and political structures, reflect the interests and viewpoints of groups located within those structures. In this context, structural change can directly affect the sense of inter-racial competition within immigration institutions, with implications for race relations. This study provides two contrasting cases illustrating these processes.
Migrant careers and well-being of women.
This article deals with the psychosocial adjustment of Latin American female migrants in the US. The analysis focuses on how changes in employment, marital status, family structure, and life-style affect subjective assessments of well-being. Using qualitative and quantitative research methods, the role of these social factors was explored. The psycho-social well-being of migrant women was found to be worse than that of men. Never-married women were equally as demoralized as married women. The disruption of social networks entailed in migration from one country to another may have a greater impact on unmarried than married women. The results of this study are offered as a contribution to the formulation of policy for relocated populations and to the design and implementation of support programs for women in the US regardless of national origin.
This study uses original data from a large sample of businesses located in Mexican ethnic neighborhoods (barrios) in Texas and California to analyze how perceptions of the economic roles of Mexican immigrant workers differ among 3 employer groups: native ethnic, immigrant ethnic, and non-ethnic. It was found that the immigrant ethnic employer group depends more on Mexican immigrants as workers and as consumers than does the native ethnic group, which tends in many ways to be more like the non-ethnic group. Differences between results for localities on the border with Mexico and those for non-border localities are also discussed. (author's)
Evidence regarding the effects of health status on migration are mixed, with some concluding that there is a positive relation while others conclude a negative relation. This study examines the analytical bases for conflicting findings and proposes a model of the health-migration relation which allows for age selectivity, nonlinearities, interactions, and dynamic effects. Often in migration research we focus on migrant-nonmigrant differentials, which helps us to understand the cross-sectional differences between the 2 groups of persons, but it does little to elucidate the complex process by which nonmigrants become migrants. The sequence of migration and health events, from the US National Health Interview Survey from 1979-1980, show that for the population under age 45, there is little temporal connection between migration and health status changes. 2/3 of the younger population with at least 1 health or migration event migrated only, with health status changes neither preceding nor following the migration. Since the migration and health events for these persons are not associated in time, there is little basis for positing strong relations of either direction for the nonelderly. The age groups for which migration and health events are connected in time are those over age 45, and the temporal proximity becomes even more marked for the elderly. Among the elderly, the migrant-only group constituted only 10% of those with at least 1 event. As expected, for the elderly the dominant relation is health deterioration after migration, the pattern displayed by 65% of the elderly with events in the last 5 years. The elderly are also more likely to be in the Destabilized Migrant category, experiencing health status declines both before and after migration. This is also consistent with the theory that the elderly in poor health at the time of migration will be more likely to be stressed by their migration and experience further deteriorations in health. The conditional probabilities indicate that health status declines are unlikely to precipitate immediate migrations, except for those with pre-existing serious conditions or more severe activity limitations. (author's modified)
Migration transition in small Northern and Eastern Caribbean states.
1 area of intra-Caribbean migration that has been overlooked is the "migration transition"--the transformation of rapidly modernizing societies from net labor exporters to net labor importers. This article assembles 8 case studies to 1) briefly present a spectrum of migration experiences in the Caribbean, 2) uncover some transitions under way, 3) pinpoint the forces that underlie the migration transition, and 4) point out some of the more important policy implications of labor migration reversals. The 8 island societies sampled for illustration purposes include 1) the Bahamas and the US Virgin Islands as post-migration transition societies (Zelinsky's advanced society), 2) the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands as undergoing transition (Zelinsky's late transitional society), and 3) Anguilla, St. Kitts-Nevis, Turks and Caicos, and Montserrat as premigration transition societies (Zelinsky's early transitional society). Population data for the islands were derived primarily from the West Indian censuses and government statistics. These 8 historical sketches reveal certain commonalities. All are at various stages in a long-term economic restructuring to displace traditional staple crops with more income elastic, high value export services. In such societies, population growth and progress along the migration transition is an increasing function of this kind of successful export substitution. In addition, along the migration and economic transitions, such insular economies exhibit a relatively large public sector (20-30% of all activity), declining unemployment, increasing fiscal autonomy, and are committed to a development strategy remarkably similar to the "successful" model of the Bahamas and the US Virgin Islands. Cursory evidence suggests that, because of intersectoral competition for land and labor, there is an inverse relationship between farm effort/manufacturing employment and tourism intensity. This review suggests that small islands undergoing rapid growth imperatives also experience a similar set of self-reinforcing socioeconomic and environmental imbalances. Particularly for post-transition and transition societies, these spillovers include increasing real estate speculation and inflation because of tourism and the allied development of retirement colonies of affluent North Americans, wage pressures and skilled manpower shortages, and increasing vulnerability to international business cycles.
The interurban mobility of the foreign born in Canada, 1976-81.
This study concerns itself with the relationship between nativity, language affiliation, and interurban mobility in Canada during the period 1976-1981. 3 hypotheses are evaluated: 1) the urban/ethnic affinity thesis predicts that international immigrants share strong preferences for settling in and relocating toward large urban centers where established ethnic communities exist; 2) the sociocultural explanation of mobility posits that variations in the propensity to relocate are a function of nativity and language; and 3) the heterogeneity explanation predicts that interurban mobility flows ultimately serve to increase rather than decrease linguistic heterogeneity in large urban areas. Using data from the 1981 census of Canada, a series of cross-tabular and logistic regression analyses provide support for all 3 hypotheses. Theoretical and policy oriented implications are discussed in the context of ethnic community survival in urban Canada. (author's modified)
Egyptian international labor migration and social processes: toward regional integration.
This article reviews evidence that contemporary Egyptian international labor migration to oil-rich Arab countries has followed a classic social process which starts with a homo economicus phase, advances into a goal reorientation phase, and ends with the establishment of diaspora communities in destination societies. The history of Egyptian migration, current estimates of migration, the role of Egyptians in selected Arab countries, and emergent processes all were found to support the predictions of the social process model. Particularly important support comes from the finding that all social classes participated in this migration. For 1982, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, based on individual consulate figures, reported 2.9 million migrants in oil-rich countries. Conclusions suggest the likelihood that Egyptian migration processes will promote economic and perhaps social integration in the region. (author's modified)
Continuity and change in Germany's treatment of non-Germans.
This essay criticizes 2 conventional approaches to migrants in Germany. 1 focuses on racism in German history while the 2nd examines the tradition of repressive laws which exploit and dominate foreigners. This essay finds these approaches appropriate until the 1970s. From that point, German governments tend to accept foreigners and develop new programs of integration. The essay concludes with ways future research can uncover new and subtle forms of control and domination; the goal of integration itself may become a form of control. Future research can investigate 1) the extent to which integration is rhetorical rather than substantial, 2) the extent to which policies create restrictive forms of integration, and 3) how integration forces migrants to make choices they might not choose to make, such as the choice forced by the current debate over which group of Moslems should rule Islam in Germany. (author's modified)
Economic growth in Indonesia's 3rd 5 year plan (Repelita III) was 5.7%; in Repelita IV, economic growth is 5%. Population growth is 2.3%. As a consequence of this situation, nutrition improvement programs should be carried out intensively. Research indicates a correlation between consumption of calories per capita and community income, and shows that nutritional additions increase productivity. In addition, major causes of infant and child deaths are diarrhea and pneumoniasis, which are affected by the precondition of low nutritional status. The policy of integrating services programs, which has a great influence on the infant mortality rate, should be developed with community participation. Giving priority to increasing community nutritional status is the beginning of the goal of increasing complete human development. (author's modified)
[Population mobility and issues in Surabaya]
Employment opportunities in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in the rural areas of Java are very limited and many people are either unemployed or semi-employed. Consequently, many members of the work force have moved to the cities in search of employment. The migration of the labor force accelerated the growth of cities in Java during the past 25 years. Medium-sized cities, however, grew faster than the larger urban areas. This article reviews the patterns and behaviors of migrant workers in Surabaya and several of the problems created by their migration. The article is based on the findings of a study Migrant Population Mobility to Surabaya, which was conducted by the Ministry of Population and Environmental Affairs in conjunction with the Center for Population Studies at Gajah Mada University. Population growth in Surabays between 1971 and 1980 was slow. This was due to several factors. The migrants who went to Surabaya for the most part were itinerant workers. The renewals of towns around Surabaya, such as Gresik, Sidoardjo, and Mojokerto, helped filter migration to the port city. The majority of the itinerant workers were engaged in the informal sector. (author's modified)
Advantages of place as perceived by Sunbelt promoters.
A questionnaire was sent to 104 Chamber of Commerce executives in states and cities in the South and Southwest to evaluate the factors they perceive to be important in recruiting business and industrial migrants from the North. 81 respondents rates 33 locational factors on a scale of 1 to 5. Results show variation in the perceived importance of factors between Southeast, South Central, and Southwest states and the Border states. Patterns of perceived competition among cities reveal that Border cities view Southern cities as their most important competitors but Southern cities see their major competitors as other rapidly growing Southern cities. Large cities do not see smaller cities as competitors with the exception of the "high tech" research centers such as Raleigh, North Carolina. (author's)
Changing patterns of migration and regional economic growth in the U.S.: a demographic perspective.
During the 1970s and early 1980s, the South and West census regions accounted for over 90% of incremental national population, which was easily the highest percentage accounted for by these regions in the nation's history. This paper stresses the importance of powerful demographic forces that contributed to the regional shift, but it does not ignore important economic factors. A major theme of the paper is that because the baby boom has now largely matured out of the most mobile age classes, population and employment growth differentials that strongly favored the South and West will moderate in the future. (author's)
Changes in poverty and income inequality in Pakistan during the 1970s.
This paper examines the development of poverty and income inequality in Pakistan during the 1970s, and decomposes this inequality into various components in order to identify the location of increasing inequality. The figures show that poverty decreased by about 50%. Not only has the percentage of households below the poverty line decreased by about 34%, but the average income of the remaining poor also went up. At the same time, income inequality between households increased during the period concerned. The decomposition technique applied in this paper discovered 4 elements of inequality increase. 1) Increase in the inequality of earnings in rural areas explains 33% of total inequality increase. 2) Increasing participation rates of both urban and rural households explain 32% of total inequality increase. 3) 25% of total inequality increase can be attributed to a sectoral shift from rural to urban areas. The urban income share increased from 33% in 1969-1970 to 50% in 1979. Since the Theil coefficient of urban labor income is far higher than the Theil coefficient of rural labor income in both 1969-1970 and 1979, inequality increased due to this sectoral shift. 4) Inequality between urban and rural areas increased, explaining 11% of total inequality increase.
Rural poverty in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan: profiles and policies.
The problem of rural poverty in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan remains intractable mainly because it has not been confronted by policies with the biggest impact on the target groups, and because they have relied on "soft" policy options. The agricultural sectors in these countries have not been dynamic enough to sustain the growth process. What is even more disturbing is that agricultural growth has not provided new jobs and incomes to the landless poor. This sorry state of affairs is partly a reflection of the institutional impediments and partly a result of policies that have been contradictory. Industrial growth has not touched many of the rural communities, and the relative abundance of labor in these countries has not been used to advantage in selecting the industries which have the greatest impact on growth in both rural and urban areas. A direct attack on poverty requires that income earning opportunities are provided to the rural poor, by making available assets like land and human capital and through providing productive employment in and out of agriculture. The efforts made so far in the 3 countries do not represent an effective strategy to alleviate rural poverty.
Use of contraceptives for family planning.
It is now well recognized that having pregnancies too early or too late in a mother's life or too many in number or at too close intervals is harmful to the well-being of both mother and child. Unplanned and uncontrolled childbirth brings other hardships to the family. Therefore, family welfare planning has to become a way of life. For promoting family planning, 2 major approaches are to be made: 1) creating an atmosphere conducive to the adoption of a small family norm and ensuring the ready acceptance and continued use of effective contraceptives; and 2) making a variety of suitable methods of contraception available to prospective users. For promoting contraceptive practice, people have to be educated about the physiological processes that regulate male and female reproductive functions, how various contraceptives interfere with these processes, and the advantages and disadvantages of various methods. The acceptance and continued use of contraceptives are influenced by a variety of factors. Some of these important aspects related to the use of modern contraceptives for family planning are incorporated in this presentation. The information on various aspects of contraceptives and their use provided in this document are useful to all those who are concerned with the promotion of contraceptive practice among the population through education, motivation, and counseling. (author's modified)
A study on pregnancy wastage in rural area of Haryana.
The proportion of pregnancy wastage occurring in a village of the Comprehensive Rural Health Services Project of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in the Ballabargh block of Haryana, India, was estimated. Total pregnancies as well as live births were analyzed. Pregnancy was higher when the recall period was limited to the 1 pregnancy cycle as compared to the total reproductive period. Pregnancy wastage was also studied in relation to caste, socioeconomic status, parity, birth order, and maternal age of the respondents under study. (author's)
The growing presence of Hispanics in the U.S. work force.
Between 1980 and 1987, the number of Hispanic workers in the US rose dramatically, accounting for almost 1/5 of the nation's employment growth. The increase for Hispanic women was especially sharp. Although Hispanics made up slightly under 7% of total employment, they accounted for almost 1/5 of the total increase in jobs. In all, Hispanic employment increased by 2.3 million from 1980 to 1987. Mexican-Americans--by far the largest group of Hispanics--were also the fastest growing group. The employment levels of Hispanic women have shown an increase of almost 50% since 1980, about 2 1/2 times the rate for other women. Although the rate of job growth for Hispanic men during the 1980s was somewhat less than that of Hispanic women, it was sharply higher than that of nonHispanic men. Because much of the sharp rise in Hispanic employment since 1983 was accompanied by an increase in the labor force, the decline in the level and rate of unemployment among Hispanics was in line with that of the rest of the work force over the 1983-1987 economic expansion. Reasons for the high rates among Hispanics include 1) their relatively low levels of educational attainment; 2) the large numbers who have migrated to the US in recent years, and thus their greater likelihood of being labor market entrants; and 3) their concentrations in job categories which are especially vulnerable to business cycle turndowns. Although Hispanic men and women have had some degree of occupational upgrading during the decade, they are still somewhat more likely than the overall work force to be employed in lower skilled, lower paid occupations. Reflecting their concentration in occupations requiring lower levels of training and formal education, Hispanic wage and salary workers employed full-time typically earned less than their nonHispanic counterparts. Hispanic workers averaged $284 a week in 1987, about 3/4 the earnings of all full-time wage and salary workers.
A year's work: labor force activity from a different perspective.
The annual March work experience supplement to the US Current Population Survey (CPS) provides a unique view of labor force activity which complements the monthly CPS data. The March CPS supplement provides a comprehensive year-long view of labor force activity, that is, the number of weeks each person spent working, looking for work, or not in the labor force. These data provide a different perspective on the work force than the monthly data. For example, while the monthly survey indicated that about 8.2 million people were unemployed in a typical week in 1986, the March supplement showed that almost 21 million persons had been unemployed for at least 1 week during that year. This report examines the results of the March 1987 work experience questions, and discusses 5 principal results. 1) Despite a widespread perception of a recent proliferation of part-time or temporary jobs in the economy, the proportion of workers who were employed year round, usually full-time in 1986 was at its highest level in the past 20 years and was up sharply from 1982. 2) Women are becoming less and less likely to leave the work force for part of the year (or on a seasonal basis). 3) Adult black men, and young blacks of both sexes, are far more likely than their white counterparts either to spend the entire year without a job, or when they worked, to work fewer weeks. 4) The numbers of persons employed and of those unemployed anytime during the year are much larger than those found in the monthly surveys. Unemployment was experienced by 16% of the labor force in 1986 versus an annual average unemployment rate of 7%. 5) Virtually all persons who experienced some unemployment also worked sometime during the year. In 1986, the proportion was nearly 90%. Much of the joblessness was of short duration, but 44% of the unemployed were without work for 15 weeks or more.
Residential segregation in American cities: a contrary review.
Clark (1980) has reviewed evidence on the causes of racial residential segregation in American cities and has concluded that economic factors, job locations, preferences and information bear the predominant explanatory weight; private acts of housing discrimination carry little weight. This article argues that Clark's conclusions are erroneous because they are based on a selective and incorrect interpretation of the evidence available to him and because more recent studies provide strong evidence to the contrary. (author's)
The temporal and spatial dynamics of city-size distributions in China.
Under the Communist regime, the Chinese government has developed policies both to limit the growth of large cities and to promote spatial equity in population distribution. The literature provides only very general and inconclusive results regarding the impact of these policies. This paper aims at evaluating the effectiveness of China's urban policies by investigating the temporal and spatial dynamics of the size distribution of China's cities during the period 1922-1982. The research framework, which is based on a function relating population size to rank, is used to test for trends of deconcentration (where smaller cities grow faster than larger cities) and spatial decentralization (with a more even spatial distribution) of population over the study period. More formally, the 'expansion methodology' is used to investigate the dynamics of the rank-size function in both temporal and spatial dimensions. The findings show that from 1953 to 1970 there was significant population deconcentration, which appeared to be reversed subsequently. However, policies of spatial deconcentration were not found to be successful. Among the reasons suggested for the apparent failure are political upheavals and shifts in policies, the inertia within the urban system, the harsh physical environments in the interior, and current trends in economic policies that focus on the coastal areas. In spite of recent criticisms of studies on city-size distributions (which this paper also discusses), the research framework proposed and utilized here is able to portray the dynamics of a national urban system, and the framework can be used to evaluate national urban policies. (author's)
Elderly migration: for sun and money.
Discussions about elderly migration and its implications for growth planning tend to neglect the role of economic forces. The authors view cost-of-living variations among states as giving elderly households on fixed incomes an incentive to move that closely resembles the effects of wage opportunities on workers who migrate. To test this view, the authors employ a state-by-state index of cost of living for a retired couple to explore its impact on the migration choices of the elderly. The effects of cost of living on migration are investigated in terms of the probability that an elderly person will move out-of-state during a 5-year period and the probability that a given state will be chosen as a destination once a decision has been made to migrate. The influences of cost of living at both origin and destination are strongly confirmed. (author's)
This article summarizes the speeches given by participants in a seminar on population theory issues held in Nanjing, China, November 12-14, 1986. One main point was that further development of demography is necessary for meeting the requirement of 4 modernizations. Specifically, Chinese demographers should 1) draw on the strong points of western demographers; 2) integrate theories with practice; 3) read and learn more and conduct investigations on major subjects instead of hurrying to achieve short-term results; 4) consider the impact of the commodity economy on population processes; 5) View population theory as the basis of population policy; 6) emphasize unity within the discipline, with other disciplines, and with foreign demographers; 7) examine the impact of socioeconomic factors on population; 8) cooperate with each other; 9) study demography's theoretical system; and 10) expand the achieved research results, improve research quality, and develop demography further. The 2nd main point is that, demography is becoming more independent, and to facilitate its development, its independence should be encouraged; it should not be subordinated to any other discipline.
A review of population theoretical research since the founding of the People's Republic of China.
In 1949, Mao Zedong encouraged the Chinese to have many children, continuing traditional practices. Other factors that contributed to high fertility at the time (1949-1957) were 1) social and economic conditions and 2) the high demand for manual labor. During this period, China's average annual population increase rate was over 2.2%. Mao Zedong had not wished to be pronatalist, only to boost morale. In 1953, the government began to promote birth control. In 1957, Mao Zedong repeatedly stressed the necessity of birth control, spawning a short-lived period of population theoretical research. However, criticizing Ma Yinchu stifled the research. In 1958, Mao Zedong began to promote population growth again, saying it was still good to have more people. Because of Mao's change of view, Ma Yinchu's work was severely criticized. Thus scientists like Ma Yinchu were torn between upholding their scientific beliefs and keeping silent to avoid criticism. In 1962, the government began to promote family planning again. However, it was rather ineffective and the average annual population increase rate was 2.6% from 1957 to the early 1970s. In the early 1970s, the government promoted family planning sufficiently to cause a drop in the population rate of increase to below 2%, after 1974. During this time, the government focused its efforts on rural areas. The 1st national population research body was established in 1974. After the fall of 1976, population theoretical research became active. The most important contribution by the population theoretical researchers was the explanation of the dialectical relationship between population and economy. For most years from 1973-1985, the annual growth rate of population averaged 1.3%. An important lesson to learn from the struggle of China's population theoretical research is that academic views should be debated and analyzed among scholars and verified by practice, but not concluded to be right or wrong by government leaders.
Several problems about the study of family households.
Family size is defined as the number of people within a family. The trend towards the nuclear family is not necessarily the same as the reduction of family size. The nuclear family trend reflects the transition of the family pattern under the influence of socioeconomic and cultural factors, while the change of family size may be affected by the change of family pattern, or only by demographic changes or by both. The demographic factors has great influence on family size. Many people have demonstrated the nuclear family trend by the number of family members or by the proportion of different generations within a family. The problems with this view include: 1) the data used for comparison are from before the founding of the People's Republic, so it is difficult to explain the continued change since then; and 2) without the control of the impact of population structure, it is difficult to know whether the change in proportion is attributed to the intention of people to have nuclear families or to the demographic factor. The directly-related family pattern remains the dominant form in China. In addition, there has been an increase in the proportion of nuclear families in rural areas. Finally, the proportion of directly-related families will rise.
Poverty, development and patterns of rural male outmigration in Uttar Pradesh.
This paper indexes rural male out-migration and explains changing intensity patterns in Uttar Pradesh, India, since 1961. The sex ratio among non-migrants serves as an indicator of regional variations in rural out-migration. The paper highlights 2 population divergence zones in the underdeveloped Northern hilly and Eastern plain regions. The process of infrastructural development combined with cultural factors and inadequate employment opportunities seem to stimulate rural outmigration. Regional imbalance in economic development seems to be working as a suction economic system. The developed regions in India are utilizing the labor force of backward areas. The number of districts of high and moderately high rural male outmigration has increased, reflecting a wider gap between individual income and regional inequality. Unless the process is reversed in favor of rural areas, strategies for development will only work in capitalistic frameworks which serve the interests of developed regions.
Density of rural population in an Indian situation: a contemporary approach.
The spatial patterns in the density of rural population in an area are a function of the complex interplay of physical, economic, social, and technological forces. However, natural forces play a more prominent role than others in this respect. This is especially true of the developing world where application of modern technologies is limited and economies are predominantly agricultural in nature. This paper establishes quantitatively the superiority of the physical environment in effecting spatial patterns in the density of the rural population in Punjab. Only 3 variables taken from natural setup, rainfall, soil, and water, jointly explain over 53% of the spatial variance in the density of the rural population in Punjab. This clearly proves the supremacy of physical forces over others in determining spatial patterns in the density of the rural population in an agricultural area of the developing world. However, the concept needs further testing in some similar areas to establish its validity on a wider scale.
Changing population concentration in India: a macro-regional scenario.
There are great spatial variations in the distribution of the fast growing populations of India. About 70% of the 1981 population is concentrated in only 40% of the geographical area. Such a pattern of population concentration, with its spatio-temporal dimension, can be understood better if examined at the macro-regional level considering the physico-climatic and socio-economic diversity of the country. This is done by way of analyzing district level data for India as a whole and also for its various macro-regions. The study reveals that the Great Plains and Coastal Plains and Islands have a homogenous distribution and a higher population increase. The Deccan Plateau shows the most homogenous dispersion of population. The population is declining in the Northern Mountains and the Great Plains but accentuating in the Coastal Plains and Islands and the Deccan Plateau. The north and south of India are showing opposite trends in population concentration.
Some variation in the growth rates of towns is more or less a universally accepted phenomenon. But why some towns are not even able to sustain the population added due to natural increase in an overall rapidly urbanizing environment is the central theme of this paper. An analysis of slow growing towns in India, conducted at both macro- and micro-levels, reveals that 1) the slow growing towns are concentrated in a few states which are characterized by a high urbanization level; 2) practically all of them have suffered net out-migration, barring those whose slow growth was due to reduction in the territorial jurisdiction; and 3) their slow growth is attributed to a low administrative status, poor transport, connectivity, inadequate developmental efforts, and the fast growth of nearby towns. (author's) (modified)
This paper questions the frequently posed thesis of India being overurbanized. The diverse connotations of the term "overurbanization" have been taken into account and tested against the Indian reality. It is concluded that on a net balance of positive and negative effects emanating from urbanization, there is no reason to believe that India is urbanized to an extravagant degree. Any continued adherence to the "overurbanization" thesis is likely to distort our perceptions about the vital role which Indian urbanization is playing in economic growth. (author's)
Probability distributions of number of births and their applications.
This paper develops probability distributions to describe the variations in the number of live birth-conceptions to a female during a given time interval (0, To) of length To. In the derivation, the interval (0, To) is divided into 2 consecutive segments, and fertility parameters within each segment are assumed to be constant but may differ between the segments. A method of obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is outlined. The models are applied to an observed set of data. An application of the models in the evaluation of family planning programs is illustrated. (author's)
Juridical structures: refugees and migration.
The juridical problems in regard to the concepts of refugee, expulsion, and migration are complicated. If one speaks about migration in Europe, one must 1st distinguish between Eastern and Western Europe. In the communist states of Eastern Europe the refugee problem does not exist officially, with the only existing refugee problem in Yugoslavia, which has signed and ratified the Geneva Refugee Convention of 1951. In the other East European states the right to asylum exists, but refugees are granted asylum only if they are persecuted in their country of origin for their communist ideas and activities. In speaking of migration, one must distinguish between migration, forced migration, mass migration, emigration, immigration, the shift of populations, and refugees. In the communist countries of Eastern Europe the right to emigration is not respected, although certain exceptions, as in Poland or Yugoslavia do exist. Generally, in the communist states emigration is not allowed and illegal emigration is punished as "Flight from the Republic." With a few exceptions, political and other persecutions are no longer so typical within Europe. In the last decades, the refugee problem has changed to other continents: Afghanistan/Pakistan, Iran, Sri Lanka, East Timor, Lebanon, Palestine, Sudan, Tchad, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Angola. The refugee problem in Europe consists mainly in the large afflux of refugees coming from places with other cultural (and religious) attributes. The Islamic immigrants declare themselves regularly as political refugees and hope to be acknowledged as such by the receiving state. The fear of the governments and populations of the receiving countries is that it would not be possible to assimilate such aliens who do not belong to the Christian culture of Europe. Formerly, refugees came mostly from the Christian countries of Eastern Europe with the same race identity and the same religion. For years now, more and more foreign workers are a kind of migrant within the European Economic Community, and now total about 14 million. Within international public law, there exists the principle of non-refoulement which protects a refugee (and also an asylum-seeker not recognized as a refugee) against expulsion or return, in any manner whatsoever, to a territory where his life or freedom would be threatened on account of his race, nationality, religion, or membership in a particular social group or political opinion.
Rural-urban migration in Nigeria: consequences on housing, health-care and employment.
This article explores the results of an on-going longitudinal study in selected high-density areas of Port Harcourt metropolis involving 240 respondents from 4 groups. When respondents in the 1st cohort (watchnights, laborers, and messengers) were asked what motivated them to move from rural areas to the city, 94% said to get better jobs and increase their earnings. 98% of the clerks migrated to Port Harcourt for better jobs and to find employment. All 40 school leavers confirmed that they had moved to the city to find jobs. In spite of the various statutory provisions and policy statements relating to housing in Nigeria there still exists an acute and noticeable shortage both in rural and urban housing. There not only exists a dearth of residential accommodation in these urban centers, but there is also a seemingly atrocious disparity in housing conditions between a large majority of poor urban dwellers and a negligible number of urban residents who are reasonably wealthy. With the growing number of persons migrating from the rural areas to the urban centers, there are also likely to be problems of overcrowding which would exacerbate the problems of communicable diseases and pollution. In terms of the allocation of medical personnel, equipment, and drugs, there is a disproportionately skewed distribution in favor of urban dwellers. 1 important cause of urban employment problems is the phenomenal growth in urbanization and the inability of these urban centers to be able to utilize or absorb the urban labor that was created through the process of urbanization. The other problem is the extremely slow pace of industrialization as compared to urbanization . A serious malady responsible for urban unemployment is the staggering rate at which young school leavers migrate to the city. Nigeria as a nation state has assumed the most dangerous dimensions of capitalism by deliberately erecting inequality and poverty in society. 1 way by which the state, controlled by the bourgeosie, has institutionalized poverty is through the process of generating unemployment. Recently, the government has attempted to create jobs by establishing the Directorate of Employment, but most of its schemes have already existed under other names.
Return migration of the elderly in the United States: recent trends.
The authors update data on return migration among older persons in the US (1975-1980), provide insight into the role of demographic and social characteristics in return migration patterns among the elderly, and ascertain whether the determinants of overall in-migration among the elderly measured at the state of destination differ in any way from the determinants of return migration among this group. Some highlights of the data follow. 1) The rate of return migration among older people declined marginally from 2.3% (1965-1970) to 2.2%, although it remained slightly higher than the rate of the 1950s. Overall, the rate of return migration among older persons was lower in 1975-1980 than in 1965-1970 in 33 states and in all 9 census divisions, except the East South Central, where it was unchanged. During the 1975-1980 interval, rates of return migration among the elderly ranged from 1.3% in the western portion of the Midwest to nearly 3% in the Southern Atlantic and Pacific Coast states. Return migration now accounts for more than 1/4 of all interstate moves among older persons and more than 1/5 of all interstate moves. 2) Return migration rates are greater among females than among males, greater among persons 65-74 than among persons 75 and older and greater among persons not currently married. 3) Higher cost of living and greater number of cold days deter migration into a state, and high rates of unemployment among the working-age population tend to be associated with higher rates of immigration among the elderly. States with a recent history of population growth are also more attractive to older migrants regardless of whether they were born in that state. The supply of hospital beds relative to the size of the older population bears an important positive relationship with the overall rate of inmigration, but it has no impact on the rate of return migration. In short, factors such as amenities and cost of living are important in both in-migration and return migration, but other, largely unmeasurable, factors play an important role in return migration. (author's modified)
The future of work and retirement.
The trend toward early retirement of men began in the 20th century and has continued throughout the 1980s. A comparable trend has not emerged for women. In this article, Clark examines the determinants of retirement and the expected changes in these factors. The decline in work rates began with men aged 65 and over. The proportion of these men in the workforce declined from 50% in 1950 to 1 in 6 in 1986. Beginning in the 1960s, the labor force participation rates of men aged 55-64 began to decline; in the 1970s the decline in the work rates extended into the 45-54 age group. In contrast, the work rates of women younger than 55 have continued to rise. In 1950, 37.9% of women age 45-54 were in the work force; this increased to 65.9% in 1986. The work rates of older women have remained relatively constant. 27% of women 55-64 were working in 1950. This increased to 43% in 1970 and is expected to remain in the low-to-mid 40s until the year 2000. 9.7% of women worked in 1950; this decreased to 8.1% in 1980, and is expected to decrease to 5.4% in the year 2000. This rising participation rate of younger women may be due to the more permanent attachment of women to the labor force. Labor participation of women was primarily influenced in the past by the presence of small children. Women are now more likely to stay in the labor force during their childbearing years and to have fewer children. As a result, the pattern of decline in labor force participation of women as they age is starting to look more like the life cycle pattern of men. (author's modified)
A note on elderly living arrangements in Japan and the United States.
Kamo compares the living arrangements of the elderly in Japan to those in the US. Japan is known to have had extended families throughout its history. Before the industrial revolution, the prevalent family system in Japan was the stem family in which a married couple lived with their unmarried children, the eldest son, his wife, and their grandchildren. 3 surveys in the 1980s now show that roughly 50% of people aged 60 or older lived with their married children, about 20% lived with their unmarried children, another 20% lived with their spouses only, and 10% lived alone. In the US before the turn of this century, the nuclear family dominated. Only 1/6 of the American elderly lived with their adult children. However, extended family systems were once more prevalent in the US than they are today. In 1952, 1/3 of the aged lived with their children, 1/4 by 1957, and 1/5 by the mid-1960s. The dominant view of current social science seems to be that industrialization is the driving force behind change in family systems; industrialization requires geographical mobility and weakens the kin network. It lets public and voluntary systems instead of kin groups solve problems. Recent changes in Japan's family structure suggest that the effects of industrialization are so strong in Japan that the status of the elderly is steadily being undermined in favor of nuclear families. Care for older people is becoming an urgent problem, as it has become in the US and in most other industrialized countries.
Consistent correction of census and vital registration data.
A new procedure is developed for simultaneously and consistently correcting 2 or more censuses and intercensal registered births and deaths. The procedure begins with a set of preliminary correction factors, which are not necessarily consistent. It then uses the mathematics of finite-dimensional vector spaces to derive an optimal set of final consistent correction factors. The optimization procedure is based on the principle that there exists in a hyperplane a unique point of minimum distance from a fixed point not in the hyperplane. For purposes of illustration, the procedure is applied to the censuses of 1970, 1975, and 1980 and intercensal registered births and deaths for the periods 1970-1975 and 1975-1980 for the Republic of Korea. (author's)
A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross-sectional correlation between these 2 growth rates under 2 additional assumptions: 1) the relations in the model at national levels include country-specific and time-invariant random components, and 2) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these 2 assumptions can explain near-0 correlations between the 2 growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However, it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition. (author's)
Condom sense: a condom distribution project in a municipal hospital family planning clinic.
During the summer of 1986, 165 women seen in a municipal hospital family planning clinic were asked what had been the fate of the condoms provided at previous visits; only 6% had been lost or thrown away, 32% were used, 29.8% were given away, and 19% were at home available for future use. These women were offered a maximum of 50 condoms for personal use and as giveaways; 73.3% left the clinic with an average of 27 condoms/person. Telephone follow-up 2-4 weeks later revealed that 2/3 of the condoms had been given away and 91.1% of the secondary recipients were either pleased or very pleased to receive the condoms in this manner. Condom distribution increased from 14,000 condoms/month for the 1st 10 months in 1986 to 25,000 condoms/month in November 1986, and to 41,666 condoms/month in January 1987. Primary recipients usually take 1-3 brown paper bags, each containing 40 Ansell condoms of various colors and textures, accompanied by 5 sets of instructions in English and Spanish. A 3x5 card is attached to each bag of condoms. Between November 1, 1986 and March 31, 1987, data cards were filled out by 707 condom recipients taking 34,910 condoms from the clinic (of the 175,000 condoms provided during this period). 319 of these individuals, who had taken an average of 49 condoms, were each contacted by phone. In the 1st 3 months of 1987, the % of males taking condoms from the clinic rose from 12% to 51%. 89% of the primary recipients indicated that they would use condoms regularly if provided free of charge. Prior to their visit to the clinic, 43% said they had used a condom with their last act of intercourse. This figure rose to 54% at the time of last intercourse prior to telephone follow-up. 22% of the primary recipients stated that they or their secondary recipients had a history gonorrhea, herpes, syphilis, or chlamydia. 23% indicated that either they or the people the condoms were given to had had a history of intravenous drug use, homosexual or bisexual activities, or a history of more than 25 sexual partners. During the 1st 6 months of 1987, 250,000 condoms were provided to women and men in this service project. A large number of condoms, up to 500, are offered to both women and men. Condoms may be obtained anonymously or after filling out a minimum form with demographic information. These are provided free of charge and patients and staff are encouraged to take more condoms than they need personally so that they can give them to friends and family. Condoms are provided at multiple sites throughout the family planning clinic and hospital and their importance is providing protective effects against unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases is stressed. (author's modified)
A Pacific island continuing education program in infant feeding and growth monitoring.
The continuing education programs, Infant Feeding and Growth: US-Related Pacific Islands, is part of a broad effort by health providers in the Pacific to improve infant and child health by addressing declining breastfeeding rates and improper weaning practices. The project began in 1987 with funding from the US Public Health Service's Bureau of Maternal and Child Health and is being coordinated by the Maternal and Child Health Training Program of the University of Hawaii School of Public Health. The overall objective of the 3-year project is to establish practicing, longterm resident doctor-nurse teams to function as resource and training consultants in human lactation, infant feeding, and growth monitoring in each nation in the Pacific. Doctor-nurse teams have been selected from each island jurisdiction, provided with intensive training, and mandated to carry out breastfeeding promotion activities geared to their country setting. Some of these projects are focused on improving data collection on infant feeding, while others are aimed at changing hospital and government policy regarding the use of human milk substitutes for infant feeding. During the 2nd year of the project (1989), teams from all countries will meet in the Federated States of Micronesia for a week of further intensive training. After this time, team members will be involved in developing educational materials for use in their own areas and in the direct training of other health personnel in their settings.
Pacific island training in maternal and child health.
Since 1982, the University of Hawaii's School of Public Health has served as a training and technical assistance resource for maternal-child health program coordinators from the US-related Pacific island nations of American Samoa, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Republic of Palau, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands. Among the maternal-child health concerns of these nations are rising rates of malnutrition, diarrhea, upper respiratory diseases; diabetes and hypertension in women of childbearing age; and very high birth rates. Recording of births and deaths, regular growth monitoring, and community-based primary health care services are not yet integral parts of the health care programs of these countries. The responsibilities of maternal-child health coordinators, most of whom have a background in nursing, include the provision of direct services and national or state-level program planning and administration. The twice-yearly workshops offered by the University of Hawaii program emphasize the development of skills in the assessment of the health status of women and children and serve as a forum for the discussion of common issues, problems, and strategies. Another aspect of the training program has been in-country program review and technical assistance by interdisciplinary faculty teams. Concern on the part of coordinators about declining breastfeeding, inappropriate weaning practices, and rising rates of malnutrition in young children has resulted in a 3-year continuing education program in infant feeding and growth monitoring funded by the Bureau of Maternal and Child Health of the US Public Health Service.
Pacific Basin Maternal and Child Health Resource Center.
The Pacific Basin Maternal and Child Health Resource Center (PBMCHRC) was established in 1984 under a Special Project of Regional and National Significance (SPRANS) grant from the US Department of Health and Human Services, Bureau of Health Care Delivery and Assistance, Division of Maternal and Child Health (DMCH) awarded to the University of Guam. It is located at the University of Guam and serves American Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Guam, Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau. The goals of the project are: 1) enhance delivery of maternal and child health services through exchange of information; 2) to expand and improve the use of data relating to the health needs of mothers and children; 3) to maximize the use of scarce resources by coordinating the activities of the various governments at various levels of government; and 4) to develop a communications network among maternal and child health programs. The project director is Augusta Rengiil, RN. She is responsible for the overall administration of the Resource Center. Under the supervision of the PBMCHRC Governing Board, she is responsible for the day to day operation of the Center and coordination of different components of the Project. The Secretary is responsible for the clerical work of the Center. The Governing Board consists of the Maternal and Child Health Administrator/Coordinator from each jurisdiction and an Ex-Officio member from the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands Office of Health Services. The Board members met in Guam for an orientation workshop at which they decided that breastfeeding should be the focus for the 1st year of the Project. A 2nd meeting in Honolulu concentrated on "Information Management in MCH."
Population, food and rural development.
This volume is a compilation of papers by various authors addressing the issue of population density and growth and its impact on food supply, labor force, agricultural technology, market institutions, economy, land supply, and the growth of a rural proletariat. The problem of agricultural productivity as affected by capital and technological inputs is addressed, and the impact of migration and an open frontier on the alleviation of the problems of rapid growth is considered. "These issues are discussed both in general terms and in the context of specific developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia." The papers were originally prepared for an IUSSP seminar held in New Delhi, India, December 15-18, 1984. (EXCERPT)
Life cycle experience of cohorts in the evolution of female labour force participation in Australia.
"This paper examines the experience of cohorts of women [in Australia] with regard to their lifetime demographic history, the ages at which they would have benefitted from new legislation and changes in community attitudes, and the outcome of their experience in terms of trends in age-specific labour force participation rates....Also considered are women's contribution to the total labour force, the sources of growth of the female labour force in terms of the share between part-time and full-time work and between major occupation groups, and trends in dependency ratios during the post-war years." (EXCERPT)
Caribbean Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development.
35 law makers from 17 English-speaking countries of the Caribbean gathered in Barbados on June 14-15, 1985, together with guests and invited experts, to hold the First Conference of Caribbean Parliamentarians on Population and Development. Attendees discussed unemployment and unwanted adolescent pregnancy, 2 issues of great concern in the region around which discussion on population and development issues were focused. The 3 principal working papers delivered included Population and Development in the Caribbean: A Demographic Survey; Population and Employment in the Caribbean; and Teenage Pregnancy in the Caribbean: A Plea for Action.
Demographic effect of rural development projects: a case study of Ecuador.
This paper describes integrated rural development projects in Ecuador and the efforts of the Consejo Nacional de Desarrollo, the national planning organization of Ecuador, to evaluate the demographic effects. The 1st section of the paper briefly describes the integrated rural development project in Ecuador. This is followed by an outline of the methodological approach for evaluating the demographic effects, including a brief discussion of the data collection methods in the field and the content of the final questionnaire. In spite of some reservations having to do with the novelty of and lack of experience with the data collection method, the small number of communities studied, and doubts about the accuracy of some community leaders' responses, several conclusions seem compelling: 1) Community-level surveys, with well-defined questionnaires, can be useful for investigating the effects of integrated rural development projects, especially socioeconomic effects. Campesino leaders seem well-informed about local trends, including the effects of integrated rural development projects. 2) Rural development seems to be vital to Ecuador's economic future and to reducing extreme rural poverty. 3) The empirical analyses of the demographic effects of integrated rural development have focused on particular components of development in the context of the local community environment/institutional infrastructure. Regarding reducing out-migration, irrigation and land titles can reduce out-migration, but children would still leave because land plots are too small to provide employment. Thus, land redistribution is also necessary. Better roads and schools might help. Regarding mortality, it is so closely tied to low family incomes and hence to the smallness of land plots the land redistribution appears more important than ever. Finally, and consistent to the desire in Ecuador to have fewer children, fertility reduction appears closely tied to the availability of contraceptives, which are still rarely available in rural areas even where a health facility exists. The location of the nearest family planning source and access to it (via roads) are also important, along with female education. These findings may be useful in the design of future integrated rural development projects in Ecuador, especially in light of the recent population policy, which has explicit goals to reduce all 3 demographic rates, and given the current ascendancy (August 1988) of a new national government.
Adolescent perceptions of parental power: do family size and ordinal position make a difference?
The literature suggests that parent-child interactions differ in relation to both birth order and family size. Recent research by Tashakkori and Thompson showed that birth order does affect overall perceptions of parental power and that these effects are mediated to some degree by family size when effects of socioeconomic status, parental education, and other factors are controlled. The present research replicates and extends that research, examining theoretical questions and methodological problems encountered in determining mediators of birth order-parental interaction effects. The researchers collected reports of parental involvement, or indices of such involvement, in 34 interaction areas from 189 Iranian high school students from families of at least 2 children, and analyzed them using multiple regression procedures. In general, results showed birth order effects mediated by size of family. Respondents from "small" families (of 2-4 children) differed from those of larger families. In large families, 1st-borns had the most paternal (or the least maternal) orientations. In small families, last-borns had the most paternal (least maternal) orientations. Middle-borns were not significantly different from 1st-borns in small or in large families. The authors conclude that further cross-cultural studies of differential parental interaction with different birth orders are needed before a theoretical framework can be offered to explain birth order effects on personality. (author's)
Urbanization, the informal sector and migration: issues for research and cooperation.
Only recently have development studies begun to examine the complex set of relationships between urbanization, the growth of the informal sector, and internal migration in Latin America. This paper suggests that the economic crisis of the 1980s has resulted in significant changes in these phenomena and that 1 of the most important changes has been the growth of return international migration between Latin American countries. Also of importance are the continued migration flows to North America. The paper argues that the interconnectedness of these phenomena requires more multinational research efforts. (author's)
Demographic Sample Survey, 1986/87: first report.
This volume presents the results of the 1st round of the Demographic Sample Survey (DSS) carried out in 1986-1987 by the Central Bureau of Statistics in Nepal. The DSS is an update for the multi-round Demographic Survey of 1974-1978. The DSS 1986-1987 is a longitudinal survey based on a multi-stage national probability sample of 129 identifiable compact clusters known as wards/subwards. The sample consists of 35,101 rural and 14,412 urban population. The overall age/sex distribution obtained in the DSS 1986 closely corresponds to that of the national population in 1981. The literacy rate reported in DSS 1986 is consistently higher (35%) than that reported in the 1981 census (23%). Educational attainment at each level is consistently higher in DSS 1986 than in the 1981 census. The enrollment ratio is higher in urban than in rural areas. The proportion married is higher among females than among males and higher in rural areas than in urban areas. The absolute majority of women (78%) were married between the ages of 10 and 19 years. The intercensal data shows a modest but steady increase in the proportion of singles and the mean age at 1st marriage in the last 2 decades. The proportion of women marrying at ages between 15-17 increases from 28-30% among women of higher ages (40 years and above) to 31-35% among women of middle ages (25-39 years) and 38-48% among younger women aged 15-24 years. DSS data confirm prevailing high fertility in the society. At the end of the reproductive period, a currently married Nepalese woman produces an average of 6 children. A comparison with 1976 data shows little or no change in fertility during the last decade, except for a minor change in the fertility of women aged 35-39. The fertility of urban women is slightly lower than that of urban women. Data show no distinct regional variations in fertility. Spacing as an idea of family planning has yet to catch on in Nepal. The infant mortality rate is 94 and 47 in rural and urban areas, showing a gross underenumeration of infant deaths. Life expectancy at birth for the country as a whole is estimated to be around 52 in late 1983. There are 28 immigrants/1000 population for the country as a whole. The majority of immigrants originate in India.
Methodology in the study of women in development: demographic survey and Nigerian women.
Entwisle and Coles explore the potential of fertility and family planning surveys as a source of secondary data on the roles of women in development, with specific reference to the case of Nigeria. They modify and apply a role framework to organized survey materials from 3 such surveys fielded in Nigeria to assess their strengths and weaknesses. Questionnaires from 3 surveys were analyzed: the Family, Fertility, and Family Planning Survey 1971-1973, the Lagos Parity Study 1976, and the Nigeria Fertility Survey 1981-1982. These surveys, although directed toward women, have largely been ignored as a source of information about women. The authors conclude that, despite their limitations, the surveys add a new dimension to knowledge available on Nigerian women from ethnographies, time-use studies, and focused biographies and, moreover, they provide critical baseline data for the study of change. They give specific attention to 3 surveys but argue that their characterization applies in general outline to other fertility and family planning surveys undertaken in Nigeria and, indeed, elsewhere in the 3rd World. (author's modified)
This paper reviews a range of recent innovations in event-history analysis in multi-regional demography. Greater availability of event-history data for demographic analyses encourages one to explore the possibility of combining the realism of event-history techniques, either already developed or still to be developed, with the power of multistate demography. Any attempt in this regard compels one to address 5 complexities: 1) duration-dependence, 2) time-dependence, 3) heterogeneity, observed and unobserved, 4) effects of time-varying explanatory variables, and 5) inter-dependence of life-history events. Not all these complexities can be addressed simultaneously and altogether. This paper is primarily intended to bring into focus these complexities and to suggest viable techniques to address them. Only empirical applications of viable methodological approaches highlight the problems and issues involved in dealing with event-history data, that too in a multistate context. As far as empirical applications are concerned, with the availability of any life-history data, these complexities can be progressively addressed through the following applications of the stochastic processes: 1) a homogenous semi-Markov process examining the duration dependence, 2) an inhomogeneous semi-Markov process addressing age and duration-dependence simultaneously, 3) parametrization of transition probabilities involved in the semi-Markov processes, which helps in accounting for heterogeneity, 4) a Gaussian process which includes an examination of the effects of time-varying explanatory variables, observed and unobserved, and 5) inter-dependence of life-history events, if available. The approach to initializing an encounter with the complexities involved in event-history analysis in multiregional demography through the semi-Markovian framework is different from the frameworks followed in earlier works dealing with event-history data. The models so far employed to analyze event-history data can generally be called rate models, as they deal mainly with transitions rates and their estimation by maximum likelihood. The semi-Markovian approach suggested here deals more directly with transition probabilities and densities in the context of multistate life tables.
Nursing intervention to assist patients' decision making with respect to family planning.
A nursing practice model was devised to identify 7 intrapersonal, interpersonal, and extrapersonal factors that influence patients' decisions to use or not to use contraception. These include socioeconomic status, culture, family, age, locus of control, knowledge, and history of risk-taking behavior. The model shows how these factors act upon each other and upon other unknown factors to affect decision-making. After these relationships were established, the factors were examined to see in what areas the nurse could intervene in order to affirm patients' right to choose and to allow them more freedom of choice. (author's modified)
Racial occupational inequality in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1950-1980.
The purpose of this longitudinal study is to investigate the structural characteristics of local labor markets which help determine the level of racial inequality for the US as a whole and the South and the non-South regions. While this research supports the results of previous studies concerning the positive relationship between the relative size of the minority population and inequality, several other expected associations are not confirmed. For example, metropolitan area economic health increases the gap between black and white occupational opportunity instead of decreasing the difference as noted elsewhere. The authors found no consistent evidence for an effect of size of area on their measure of inequality, the Index of Net Difference. These unexpected findings are untangled by examining black and white occupational distributions separately using the same model applied to the analysis of net difference. Many of the predicted results regarding net the difference are influenced by opposing relationships for black and white occupational distributions. (author's)
Media exposure and the sexual attitudes and behaviors of college students.
This study examines the relationship between popular media consumption and sexual attitudes and behavior for 475 college students, while controlling for commonly related social-psychological variables. Results indicate that females consume more sexually suggestive media (TV soap operas and pop music) than males. General media consumption was not a powerful predictor of permissiveness. Regression analyses revealed that Music Television consumption was the only media variable significantly associated with permissiveness for females. Self-esteem was positively associated with permissive attitudes and behavior for both males and females. Soap opera consumption was significantly associated with permissive behavior for males but not for females. Sexual permissiveness for females was more significantly related to religiosity but less significantly related to self-esteem than for males. No important extraneous variable influences were found. Findings are discussed in terms of gender differences, the normative context hypothesis, social scripts, the double standard, the sexual revolution, and the cultivation hypothesis. (author's)
Altruism within the family reconsidered: do nice guys finish last?
This paper criticizes the view that altruism either increases the benefits of group interactions or improves the allocation of resources within families. The authors identify a variety of circumstances in which members of a group would prefer to interact with less altruistic individuals and in which the efficiency of resource allocation is inversely related to the prevailing degree of altruism. Reasons that altruism might be a counter-productive social force include 1) it can alter the social utility possibility frontier in surprising and sometimes unfortunate ways; 2) it can entail exploitability, causing family members to behave in ways that leave all parties worse off; 3) altruists may take inefficient actions to preempt exploitation; and 4) family members may establish efficient resource allocation by punishing selfish behavior. A rise in the level of altruism may lead to the exclusion of certain punishment strategies on the grounds of credibility. 1 general positive result is that sufficiently high levels of altruism almost always lead to efficient resource allocation. One should not necessarily expect to find strong altruistic linkages between spouses, nor should altruism necessarily contributed to marital stability. In addition to the connections between this work and the literature on family behavior, this analysis has broader implications concerning the role of altruism in society and the evolution of social conscience.
Private transfers within the family.
This paper offers a model of private transfers that incorporates some of the empirical observations made by Cox and that yields some predictions on the extent of crowding out and the role of private income transfer networks. The 1st section examines the question of joint altruism within the family and demonstrates its implications for the transfer decision across generations. The 2nd section contains a general model of transfers from adult children to their parents which introduces the question of sibling rivalry. The 3rd section examines the role of income redistribution and its effect on private giving. Transfers within and across families depend on the number of potential donors and their characteristics, i.e. wages and wealth. Transfers could take the form of time or money. Children may in fact specialize in the form transfers take either at a Pareto optimal allocation or at a Nash equilibrium. Specialization depends on the distribution of wages and wealth as well as preferences and the nature of home production. The presence of time in the model introduces non-linearities which make it difficult to derive expressions for the slope of reaction functions. This paper offers a method to derive expressions for these slopes. Because of the presence of complementarities in home production, income redistribution within a generation will affect the level of care provided to a parent. Even small changes in income distribution may affect the level of care provided. The neutrality results of government policy are lost when heterogeneity of family size is considered. This paper shows that distributions across generations will be neutralizing only when family size is not heterogeneous. In general, however, a lump sum redistributive policy across generations will result in a redistribution of income across families of differing sizes.
The design and content of the National Survey of Families and Households.
This paper is a procedural history of the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH). It attempts to 1) describe the history of the project, 2) enumerate some of the major criteria that guided the decisions relating to the design of the survey, what it covered, and what questions it included, and 3) describe the procedures that were used, including sample design, field procedures, and data preparation. The NSFH includes interviews with a probability sample of 13,017 respondents. The NSFH sample includes a main cross-section sample of 9643 households plus a double sampling of blacks, Puerto Ricans, Mexican Americans, single-parent families, families with stepchildren, cohabiting couples, and recently married persons. 1 adult per household was randomly selected as the primary respondent. The design is cross-sectional with several retrospective sequences. A considerable amount of life-history information was collected, including the respondent's family living arrangements in childhood, the experience of leaving the parental home, marital and cohabitation experience, as well as education, employment, and fertility histories. The cross-sectional design permits the detailed description of past and current living arrangements and other characteristics and experiences, and the analysis of the consequences of earlier patterns on current states, marital and parenting relationships, kin contact, and economic and psychological well-being.
Single mothers, the underclass, and social policy.
This paper focuses on whether there are mother-only families who fit the description of an underclass. It begins by examining the various definitions of the underclass and suggests weak attachment to the labor force as a common thread in all the definitions. Although the vast majority of single mothers do not fit the description of an underclass, there is a small group of predominantly black single mothers concentrated in northern urban ghettos that is persistently weakly attached to the labor force, socially isolated, and reproducing itself. Although welfare programs are necessary for those who are failed by or who fail in (depending upon one's political perspective) the labor market and other mainstream institutions, too heavy a reliance upon welfare can facilitate the growth of an underclass. In contrast, aiding single mothers through more universal programs such as a child support assurance system, child care, health care, children's allowances, and a full employment macroeconomic policy will retard the growth of an underclass.
Measures of racial exposure: some problems.
Research using measures of racial exposure has been appearing with increasing frequency in the literature on race relations. A methodological analysis finds several problems with these measures. 1) They fail to characterize meaningfully the actual racial composition of sub-areas. 2) A particular exposure value can describe a wide variety of racial distributions. Hence, large changes in residential distributions need not be reflected in changes in exposure values. 3) The strong correlation between exposure measures and overall racial composition means that changes in racial composition, in the absence of residential redistribution, necessarily produce changes in the exposure measures. Because of these 3 problems, the sociological concepts of interracial exposure and potential for interaction are poorly served by the current exposure measures. (author's)
An alternative to the method of direct standardization.
This paper presents a simple method for the standardization of rates based on a multiplicative (log-linear) model. This method is excogitated from Clogg's (1978) method of purging undesirable interactions in a saturated multiplicative model and on 1 of the properties of confounding factor. The standardized rates obtained according to the method proposed are called model standardized rates. The computation of a model standardized rate is shown both in the form in which it was originally derived as well as in a simplified form. Properties of model standardized rates are described through numerical illustrations. Besides certain hypothetical examples, a set of data used by Clogg et al (1986) is also presented for comparison. Estimates of the parameters of the assumed models and useful information about the parameters, by using GLIM (Generalized Linear Interactive Modelling) programs, are given to provide additional insight. The computation of a model standardized rate, however, is so simple that the use of GLIM is not absolutely necessary. A distinction has been made for the 1st time between the standardization of prevalence rates and the standardization of rates in case of non-renewable events. The method developed basically for the standardization of prevalence rates has been extended to the standardization of occurrence/exposure rates. The properties of simplicity and independence from any endogenous or exogenous standard together with the fact that the calculation of model standardized rates do not need the lengthy procedure of purging interactions, suggest that the method proposed is an alternative to the conventional method of direct standardization. (author's)
Mathematical hazard models of mortality: an alternative to model life tables.
A 5 parameter competing hazard model of the age pattern of mortality is described, and methods of fitting it to survivorship, death rate, and age structure data are developed and presented. The methods are then applied to published life table and census data to construct life tables for a Late Woodland population, a Christian period Nubian population, and the Yanomamo. The advantage of this approach over the use of model life tables is that the hazard model facilitates life table construction without imposing a particular age pattern of mortality on the data. This development makes it possible to extend the study of human variation in mortality patterns to small populations using anthropological data. (author's)
Racial and residential differences in U.S. infant death rates: a temporal analysis.
This study uses regression analysis to compare the relationship of annual rates of neonatal and postneonatal mortality to annual rates of low birth weight. The period of interest is 1963-1982. Regardless of whether neonatal or postneonatal mortality rates are considered, the same level of decline in the incidence of low birth weight is associated with a greater decline in the mortality rates for nonwhite than white infants and for nonmetro than metro infants. If all 4 subgroups had the same composition of low weights at birth, the neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates would be lower for nonwhites and nonmetro residents. The implications are discussed. (author's)
Race, class, and adolescent pregnancy: an ecological analysis.
The US has 1 of the highest rates of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing in the industrialized world--and the highest rates in the US are found among low-income black adolescents. This paper addresses the problem via a 4-part theoretical framework based on an ecological developmental model. Variables that contribute to adolescent pregnancy in the black community are examined at the individual, family, sociocultural, and social structural levels. In terms of social policy considerations, this ecological framework provides a conceptual basis for the claim that the problem of joblessness among both males and females should be a salient issue on any agenda that focuses on reducing black adolescent pregnancy. The potential utility of this framework is discussed, and suggestions are offered for research and programmatic intervention. (author's modified)
The growth of families headed by women: 1950 to 1980.
In recent decades the proportion of women with children who head their own households has increased dramatically. A number of factors have contributed: decrease in fertility, increase in divorce, an increased propensity for women with children to establish independent households, decrease in remarriage, and increase in nonmarital births. This paper uses US census data to analyze the impact of these major demographic components on the growth in female-headed families from 1950 to 1980. The findings indicate that for white women, the major source of growth has been the increase in the number of formerly married mothers, which results from higher divorce rates and, more recently, lower rates of remarriage. For black women, much of the early growth in female-headed families was caused by an increase in formerly married mothers, but recent growth has come from declines in marriage and increases in births to never-married women. (author's)
Explaining the association between rates of in-migration and out-migration.
A positive association between rates of in-migration and out-migration across locations has long been observed. This apparent paradox has usually been attributed to the impact of in-migration on population composition. The author argues here that the intrinsic structure of population dynamics may also induce this effect, and the author develops a formal model of this process. Empirical analyses using migration data for states in the US over 1955-1960, 1965-1970, and 1975-1980 show that the intrinsic mechanism may swamp the compositional effect. The analysis suggests that rates of in- and out-migration are jointly determined. Any attempt to infer individual determinants of migration on the basis of the patterns of aggregate migration for places must take account of this. Although the analysis presented here employs aggregate migration among states, the same mechanism applies where migration measures are defined for subpopulations and for smaller geographic areas. (author's modified)
The logit model, the probit model, and response-based samples.
It is well known that the choice of the probit versus the logit model is usually inconsequential for analyzing binary response from random samples and samples stratified on exogenous variables. There is reason to suspect, however, that the choice between these 2 types of models has serious consequences when the sample is response-based. A response-based sample is 1 that is stratified on the discrete variable of outcome. This paper shows that, in the context of response-based samples, the conventional wisdom is incorrect. The paper 1st discusses the problem of model specification. Secondly, it formally states the estimation problem from response-based samples and briefly introduces the Manski-Lerman weighted maximum likelihood estimations solution. It then reports the asymptotic bias of alternative estimators under response-based sampling. Finally, it presents a Monte Carlo experiment that provides evidence on small sample bias and precision. The choice between the probit and logit models is shown to be a real concern for estimation from response-based samples. If the true model is logit, the ordinary maximum likelihood procedure yields the best asymptotic unbiased estimator. But even a small misspecification of the model, say, approximating the probit by the logit, renders the maximum likelihood estimator biased. Therefore, care must be taken when the researcher analyzes response-based samples. A conservative approach is always to use a weighted maximum likelihood procedure, even for the logit model.
The demographic bases of recent change in the structure of American households.
This paper examines recent changes in the structure of American households within the context of broad population changes. Decreases in married couple households and increases in single-parent households are due almost entirely to changing patterns of marriage, divorce, fertility, and child custody; headship rates for families have remained relatively stable. Increases in single-person and other non-family households are due to increases in the size of the unmarried, childless population and to the aging of this population. Increasing propensities to live alone or with non-relatives were observed between 1970 and 1980, but these behavioral changes have abated during the early 1980s. (author's)
Ethnicity, employment and migration.
This paper addresses the issues of whether 1) the employment patterns of blacks, Cubans, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and non-Hispanic whites of labor force age changed between 1965 and 1980; and 2) whether migration between 1975 and 1980 affected the likelihood of being employed in 1980. The results show that the employment patterns of each of the groups changed significantly during the 15-year period. The employment levels of males declined (particularly among blacks and Puerto Ricans), while that of females increased substantially. Age and sex were the primary factors associated with work to nonwork transitions during 2 5-year periods. Changes in the total US labor force are primarily a consequence of the growth and distribution of the Hispanic population. Changes in the employment pattern of the Hispanic population appeared to have been less conditional on changes in the age, sex, nativity, and educational distribution of the labor force population. Migration among the native born population did not increase the likelihood of becoming employed, even among the college educated. On the other hand, the foreign born and the foreign born who migrated between 1975 and 1980 increased their likelihood of being employed by at least 10%. (author's)
Does population aging produce increasing gerontocracy?
This study examines what has happened to the age structure of 2 significant spheres of leadership in the US since about 1940. The 2 areas measured are 1) the age distribution of members of the US Congress since 1945, and 2) the age structure of professional and managerial occupations since 1945. As the elderly have gained in number and in aggregate physical and economic well-being, they have retreated (or have been pushed) from the important decision-making positions in the society. Both in political offices and prestigious occupations, older persons are becoming underrepresented. As the population grows older, the age structure of leadership grows younger. At this time, 2 opposing interpretations may be given to the declining engagement of older persons in recognized positions of social responsibility. 1 view suggests that older people are being pushed away by society, and the other suggests that older people are enjoying more leisure, community service, and financial security.
The present note explicitly demonstrates the relationship between the method of partial CG purging proposed by Clogg and Eliason, and the more familiar techniques of log-linear and logit analysis. Beginning with the general multiplicative (or log-linear) model, the author shows how "purged" rates are related to parameters of appropriate log-linear and logit models. The 3 methods lead to identical conclusions about the effects of compositional differences on group differences in a categoric dependent variable. (author's)
Rural minority families in the United States: changes in poverty and economic well-being, 1960-1980.
This paper traces the economic status of rural black, Mexican, and American Indian families during the period 1960 to 1980. Analysis of 1960, 1970, and 1980 US census data revealed substantial improvement in the economic status of rural minority families over the period--considerably more than that enjoyed by their urban counterparts or rural whites. However, because they started from so far behind, in 1980 rural minorities remained the most disadvantaged with respect to income, earnings, and poverty. The shift in residence towards urban areas contributed somewhat to the overall decline in minority poverty, though American Indians benefited considerably more than blacks or Mexicans in this regard. While the use of public assistance increased among rural minority families between 1970 and 1980, increased earnings was of greater importance to their decline in poverty. (author's)
Age dependencies in rates of first marriage.
This paper explores the determinants of 1st marriage by focusing theoretical and empirical attention on age dependencies in rates of 1st marriage. This focus has 3 major implications. 1st, it dictates that we take seriously the possibility that explanatory variables have effects that vary with age. Doing so substantially broadens the scope of existing theories, generates additional research questions, and allows more definitive tests of hypotheses. 2nd, using data on women taken from the June 1980 Current Population Survey, the author finds that 1st marriage rates exhibit simple and highly regular patterns of age dependence. Individual-level attributes alter, but do not fundamentally change, these observed regularities. 3rd, the effects of individual-level attributes also vary in highly regular ways with age. Situational, historical, and cultural factors influence distinct aspects of the rate. Thus, regular patterns of age dependence appear characteristic of both 1st marriage rates and the social mechanisms governing the rate. (author's)
ECTA user's guide: for both VAX and PC versions.
Everyperson's Contingency Table Analyzer (ECTA) is one of the earliest programs created specifically for the log-linear analysis of categoric data. Since its introduction in 1970, ECTA has been supplanted to some extent by newer programs offering greater power and flexibility. However, for a certain class of log-linear models, namely standard hierarchical models for complete multi-way tables, the iterative proportional fitting algorithm of the ECTA program produces maximum likelihood estimates of expected cell frequencies (and, with them, measures of goodness-of-fit) much more quickly than the direct maximum likelihood estimation procedures of the newer programs. For this reason, the authors are reintroducing and recommending ECTA as a valuable tool for exploratory analyses of categoric data. Using ECTA, one can efficiently test for bivariate and higher-order interactions within a multi-way table, and then turn to the more sophisticated (and time-consuming) programs for "fine-tuning" of model parameters. The program described in this document is available both on the VAX mainframes as well as on floppy diskettes for use with IBM-compatible microcomputers running under DOS. Since the PC version was adapted directly from the mainframe version, ECTA command files may be transported between mainframe and PC with minimal modifications, having primarily to do with references to external data files. The PC version requires 640k of RAM and a numeric coprocessor. The mainframe version of ECTA can calculate expected frequencies and fit statistics for tables up to a size of approximately 60,000 cells. If parameter estimates are also requested, the size limitation drops to approximately 20,000 cells. For the PC version, the limitations are 20,000 cells (for expected frequencies and fit statistics) and 4000 cells (for parameter estimates).
Creating SIPP longitudinal analysis files using a relational database management system.
The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) reflects the growing complexity and size of social and economic microdata files designed to examine a broad range of related policy issues. This paper shows that managing data using relational database management software is a more efficient way of preparing longitudinal analysis files than traditional methods that use statistical packages such as OSIRIS, SAS, or SPSSX. The authors illustrate how social scientists and policy analysts can achieve large gains in productivity and reduce the large overhead that results from everyone carrying out the same data management operations to create longitudinal analysis files. The facility called SIPP ACCESS, located at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, maintains the 1984 SIPP in a relational data management system and stores the complete 9 waves of core and topical module data on optical laser disks. Part 1 of this paper identifies the weaknesses of traditional database management strategies for constructing longitudinal analysis files from SIPP. Part 2 illustrates how the relational database management system was used to construct longitudinal analysis files from the 1984 SIPP. Sections A-C replicate the Servais examples. Section D makes use of the longitudinal files that SIPP ACCESS has created to show that only a few lines of English language-like codes are required for constructing a longitudinal analysis file of all persons who ever received welfare and were present in the panel for at least the 1st 8 interviews. Part 3 summarizes the differences between traditional data management using statistical packages and the relational database management system. It concludes with a discussion of how a central data sharing facility like SIPP ACCESS provides the impetus for making major investments in devising efficient, cost-effective solutions for improving access to complex data files.
Population planning program management: the role of health administration programs.
In 1986, an international survey of educators, program managers, and donors was undertaken to assess the current state of education for population planning program management. Most respondents perceived a high level of need for management training in the population field. This perception was less likely to be held by health administration program directors, however, whose programs for the most part had only limited experience or interest in addressing this need. Population planning program directors indicated that regional training institutes and the local population planning program itself were the most frequent source of management training, although the sample as a whole perceived that training to be of lower quality than what would be offered by US and Canadian universities. The major improvement desired in such training related to the appropriateness and effectiveness of teaching methods and content. Planning, needs assessment, and goal setting was seen to be the area of greatest training need. (author's modified)
The TIGER system: automating the geographic structure of the United States census.
The success of a census rests not only on how well the Bureau of the Census collects data, but also on how well the Census Bureau links those data to geographic areas. Problems with the geographic materials produced for the 1980 census caused confusion on the part of the Census Bureau's field staff, the staff processing the collected data, and the users of the resulting information. To avoid similar problems in 1990, the Geography Division of the Census Bureau is developing an automated geographic system that will support numerous Census Bureau operations beginning with the 1990 Decennial Census. A major component of this automated system is the computer-readable map data being developed in cooperation with the US Geological Survey using their 1:100-000-scale map series as the source. (author's)
Demographic factors shaping the U.S. market for new housing.
Demographic forces will reshape the market for new housing during the remainder of this century. These forces will generate motion that is gradual but steady in direction, and therefore strategically important to long-term investment decisions. Distinctive influences include: 1) the amount of new housing needed will be stimulated by the maturation of a numerically large generation. 2) The financial capacity to afford new housing will be strengthened by the predominance of 2-earner couples. 3) The type of housing favored will reflect evolving residential needs dictated by increasingly diverse living arrangements. Nonfamily households will be as common as couples with children. 4) The geographic locales of new housing demand will tend to be clustered within certain regions and metropolitan areas. These influences assume added importance in the context of today's low homeownership levels. Many 1st-time buyers, locked out of the market during the 1980, have deferred home purchases. As members of this large baby boom generation mature through their 40s, the traditional dream of homeownership, deferred in the 1980s, may gradually come within reach during the 1990s. Those who already own homes will ripen into a large, prosperous segment able to trade up to more expensive ones. As actual or aspiring homeowners, then, this generation and its changing tastes will set the tone of the new housing market during the remainder of the century. (author's modified)
The authors propose an economic model capable of simulating the 4 main historical stages of civilization: hunting, agricultural, industrial, and postindustrial. An output-maximizing society to respond to changes in factor endowments by switching technologies. Changes in factor proportions arise through population growth and capital accumulation. A slow rate of exogenous technical process is assumed. The model synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the effect of population growth on per capita output. Initially the capital-diluting effect of population growth dominates. As population density increases, however, and a threshold is reached, the Boserupian effect becomes crucial, and a technological revolution occurs. The cycle is thereafter repeated. After the second economic revolution, however, the Malthusian constraint dissolves permanently, as population growth can continue without being constrained by diminishing returns to labor. By synthesizing Malthusian and Boserupian notions, the model is able to capture the salient features of economic development in the very long run. (author's)
Child survival, women and population.
The ongoing crisis confronting women and children in the Third World--where disease and hunger are taking millions of lives of young children every year and where population growth still proceeds at an unacceptably high rate--is actually worsening in some areas. The European Parliamentarians' Forum on Child Survival, Women, and Population: Integrated Strategies was held under the auspices of The Netherlands government and organized in cooperation with 3 UN organizations: the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and the UN Fund for Population Activities. It is critical that the world regain the momentum of past decades in reducing appalling child mortality rates, improving the health and status of women, and slowing population growth. Development programs from health education to agriculture are hampered or crippled by the inability of development planners to recognize the centrality of the woman's role. Maternal and child health is the logical entry point for primary health care. Education is the springboard for rescuing women in the Third World from poverty, illness,endless childbearing, and lowly social status. One should educate women to save children. Women in the developing world must be given access to basic information to be able to take advantage of new, improved or rediscovered technologies such as 1) oral rehydration therapy, 2) vaccines, 3) growth monitoring through frequent charting to detect early signs of malnutrition, 4) breast feeding, and 5) birth spacing. Education is the single most documented factor affecting birth rate, status of women, and infant and child health. The presentations at The Hague threw into sharp relief the close links, the cause and effect chains, and the synergisms associated with all the factors connected, directly or indirectly, with child survival, women's status, and population--factors such as education, economic opportunities, and overall development questions. A 4-point agenda includes 1) encouraging UN agencies and organizations concerned with social development to work closely together and to enhance the effectiveness of their programs, 2) seeking greater support for the UN's social development programs, 3) focusing public attention on the interrelatedness of health, maternal and child survival and care, women's status, and freedom of choice in family matters, and 4) maintaining and strengthening commitment through the dialogue of parliamentarians.
Applied demography: its current scope and future direction in the United States.
Applied demography comprises a diverse set of applications that draw on demographers' specialized knowledge and technical skills. Those applications often stem from demographers' familiarity with census data and their facility in adapting it to business and public sector concerns. This paper offers an overview of the field's current scope, evolution, and prospective future course. Its major points are: 1) applied demography is driven by problems; it is not a theory-directed body of knowledge. Its evolution, therefore, mirrors contemporary issues to which demographic perspectives and data apply, 2) Professionally, applied demographers are diversely situated but linked through a national network of personal contacts. Many work for state and regional governmental agencies; some are employed within the commercial data industry; a few operate as entrepreneurs. Most are occasional practitioners responding to various commercial, legislative, and judicial concerns demanding the use of demographic information. 3) Factors underlying its growth include newly available data for matching information on individual consumers and heightened competitive pressures within recently deregulated US markets. The underlying factors fostering the recent growth of applied demography also foreshadow its future development. The technology for storing, retrieving, and matching data has introduced potential applications that only a few years ago were entirely beyond the realm of possibility. Expanded automated registry of microdata on individuals is affording unprecedented detail for targeting consumers based on their own personal characteristics rather than those of the neighborhoods they inhabit. (author's)
Studying lives in a changing society.
This paper examines the historical context of 2 birth cohorts who lived through the Great Depression and World War II: the Oakland sample of 167 members (birth dates, 1920-1921) and the Berkeley Guidance sample of 214 members (birth dates, 1928-1929). Data were collected on these cohorts across the 1930s on an annual basis and during widely spaced intervals up to the 1980s. In both cohorts, the Depression had much to do with the sudden and prolonged misfortune of families. The Oakland cohort were young children during the prosperity of the 1920s. This stable childhood ensured a measure of security and developmental continuity when they entered the harsh, erratic regime of the Great Depression. They were too old by then to be wholly dependent on the misfortunes of deprived households, and they avoided the scars of widespread joblessness after high school by entering college and the labor market as the country mobilized for war. Most of the men served in the armed forces of World War II. By contrast, the Berkeley cohort followed a timetable that maximized their vulnerability to the historical upheavals of the time. The encountered family hardships during the vulnerable years of early childhood and the developmental problems of adolescence during a period of mass mobilization in the 2nd World War. From the early 1930s to the end of the decade, 3 modes of change distinguished the deprived families of Oakland and Berkeley from relatively nondeprived families: 1) changes in family economy, 2) family relationships, and 3) level of social and psychological stress. The shift of households from capital to labor intensive made room for the valued contribution of children. These children were needed and had a chance and responsibility to make a real contribution to the welfare of others. From a developmental standpoint, wartime experience was as consequential as Depression experience. Military service removed the Oakland men from the immediate influence and setting of home and community, representing a passage from family dependence to greater independence and autonomy. Adolescence had a very different meaning for females in the Oakland cohort who appeared to be more vulnerable than males to environmental insult in the 2nd decade of life. Boys from the Berkeley cohort were less likely to be hopeful, self-directed, and confident about their future, while the deprived family environment actually offered greater family security for the younger Berkeley girls, a difference which reflects the warmth of mother-daughter relations under conditions of extreme hardship. Military mobilization severed many Depression youth from a past that meant hardship and restricted opportunity.
Probability models of reproductive events using vital statistics data.
Pandey and Suchindran present a class of analytical models to study the reproductive events of women from current fertility and mortality experiences of a population. Distributions of maternal ages conditioned on specific birth order, final parity, and next-to-last birth have been derived so as to estimate their moments from the data on age-specific fertility and mortality rates. Fertility indices, such as mean birth interval, parity progression ratios, and ultimate parity distribution are also ascertained. The authors conclude that various key indices of fertility like probability of ever becoming a mother of different orders of birth, along with the age at which the events take place, can be derived from age-specific fertility and mortality experiences of a population. The age at which mothers decide to stop childbearing is conditioned by their parity. The age at which they had their last birth can be estimated from the proposed methodology derived under synthetic cohort conditions. Evidently, thereby 1 could estimate mean birth interval and parity progression of a population--the 2 major dimensions of fertility--the tempo and quantum. (author's modified)