International migration under asymmetric information.
International migration under asymmetric information usually differs from international migration under symmetric information and often quite dramatically so, and in counterintuitive ways. Since in real life information is indeed asymmetric, it is somewhat surprising that hitherto the study of international migration has, by and large, proceeded without explicit recognition of the effect of informational asymmetry. In this paper, we show that when at the lowest skill level, migration is desirable; i.e. if the (discounted) wage differential is positive for the lowest skill level, the introduction of asymmetric information results in a reduction of the quality and quantity of international migration or has no effect at all. When at the lowest skill level, migration is not desirable--the (discounted) differential is not positive at the lowest skill level--the introduction of asymmetric information may either result in migration by all or none. When under asymmetric information, workers can, at some cost to themselves, report to foreign employers their individual skill--thus dissociate themselves from the group effect--then, provided the cost is small, either a U pattern of migration with respect to skill level emerges or migration is uniformly pursued by all, though some do and some do not invest in signalling. When the source consists of more than 1 (poor) country, it is impossible to predict migration under asymmetric information from a given country without explicitly accounting for changes in the parameters of the other. For example, a favorable change (encouraging less migration) taking place in 1 country will, through a distinct impact on the overall composition of migration, reduce migration from the other country. Finally, allowing employers to discover after a while, the true productivity of individual migrant workers, we obtain the somewhat surprising result that (under a reasonable set of assumptions), eventual discovery may increase the quantity and quality of migration and also increase the wage enjoyed by the low quality migrants. Eventual discovery serves to mitigate the impact of group averaging that deters migration by the high skill workers. Due to migration of some such workers, the prediscovery wage of the low skill workers arises, in our case sufficiently to outweigh the effect of the future wage decline due to discovery. (author's)
Gossypol inhibition of acrosin and proacrosin, and oocyte penetration by human spermatozoa.
Gosspyol, a known antispermatogenic agent, was found to effectively inhibit the highly purified boar sperm proacrosin-acrosin proteinase enzyme system by irreversibly preventing the autoproteolytic conversion of proacrosin to acrosin and reversibly inhibiting acrosin activity. The agent appears to prevent the self-catalyzed by not the acrosin catalyzed activation of proacrosin. In additional experiments, brief exposure of human semen to concentrations of gossypol, which did not visibly alter spermatozoal motility of forward progression was found to irreversibly inhibit the conversion of proacrosin to acrosin although the activity of the nonzymogen acrosin was not decreased, and also to prevent the human spermatozoa from penetrating denuded hamster oocytes. Gossypol inhibition of proacrosin conversion to acrosin closely paralleled the decline in oocyte penetration. Racemic (+or-) gossypol was equally as effective as the enantiomer (+) gossypol. The results suggest that the inhibition of proacrosin conversion to acrosin is a mechanism by which gossypol exerts its antifertility effect at nonspermicidal concentrations and that low levels of gossypol should be tested for their contraceptive action when placed vaginally. (author's)
Sustained gonadal suppression in fertile women with the LHRH agonist buserelin.
9 fertile women were treated with the luteinizing hormone--releasing hormone agonist buserelin (7 women received 800 mcg, 2 received 1200 mcg, instranasally for up to 24 weeks). Both doses produced sustained suppression of ovarian function, accompanied by hot flushes. In 5 women, chemical castration was accomplished within 1-5 weeks, whereas in the other 4 volunteers, transient peaks of serum estradiol occured between weeks 6-19. Thereafter, low postmenopausal estradiol levels persisted. Chemical castration was confirmed by hormonal parameters and endometrial biopsies (inactive endometrium). After cessation of treatment, normal cyclical function occurred immediately. This reversible chemical castration may be useful for new therapeutic approaches in sexual hormone dependent diseases (endometriosis, precocious puberty, metastic breast cancer). (author's modified)
Measuring the exposure of infants to tobacco smoke: nicotine and cotinine in urine and saliva.
The effect of parental smoking on infant well-being and children is an important public health concern. It is necessary, however, to validate the existence of such exposure objectively before an evaluation of the effects of parental smoking behavior on the child's health can be made. The authors measured the concentration of nicotine and its major metabolite, cotinine, in the saliva and urine of 32 infants with household exposure to tobacco smoke, and 19 unexposed infants. The concentrations were significantly higher in the exposed group than in the unexposed one, with the best indicator of chronic exposure being the urinary cotinine: creatinine ratio; median in the exposed group, 351 ng/mg (225.3 nmol/millimole); median in the unexposed group, 4 ng/mg (2.6 nmol/millimole) (P<0.0001). There was a direct relation between cotinine excretion by the infants and the self-reported smoking behavior of the mothers during the previous 24 hours (r=0.67, P=0.0001). Results indicate that infants who were exposed to tobacco smoke absorbed its constituents and that urinary excretion of cotinine is a reliable measure of such exposure in infants. (author's modified)
Family planning needs in Nigeria [letter]
Family health and planning programs have a major contribution to make in improving the health of mothers and children. Wider spacing of births gives the mother's body time to recover from the process of birth; if the recuperation time is too short, subsequent babies are more prone to low birthweight, infant malnutrition, and childhood diseases. It is important to educate the public about the impact of family planning on family health. Families must be encouraged to employ methods that will achieve better child spacing, such as the use of safe contraceptive devices, abstinence, and the practice of other traditional modes of family planning. A special effort should be made to develop effective communication with mothers. Many health clinics and suburban primary health care centers are overcrowded, with too much noise from other clients. Because of cultural attitudes the nurse and other clinicians cannot talk to a mother about family planning in the presence of other mothers. In Nigeria, maternal education appears to be the most powerful determinant of the level of child morbidity and mortality. Rights for women are not only a question of justice but also of social progress. There are many other social reasons for family planning, among them the high cost of raising, supporting, and educating children. A stable population can ensure an improved economic status for the nation. The cooperation of all professionals in various academic disciplines should be sought in the promotion of family planning to the whole population. With this in mind, my colleagues and I developed a questionnaire to test attitudes among university students. We applied the questionnaire to 712 students, divided into medical and nonmedical, and a comparison of their responses to the 5 proposals contained in the questionnaire is given below. We found an abstention rate of around 15% to most of the questions, in both groups of students. A legal minimum age for marriage. Opinions were fairly evenly divided, with slightly more opposition than approval in both groups, particularly among the medical students. Supply of free contraceptives to university students. The above trend was even more pronounced, so that among medical students nearly twice as many disapproved of the suggestion as were in favor. Immunization and other preventive health measures. Both groups supported these practices. As was to be expected, a very favorable response came from the medical students, with hardly any abstentions, whereas a lower percentage of their nonmedical counterparts perceived the advantages. Genetic screening for sickle cell anemia and phenylketonuria. Both groups were overwhelmingly in favor of the proposal. This was the only question to which nearly everybody replied. Sex education in schools. Here also, both groups gave an overwhelmingly favorable response. (full text)
Breast-milk policy [letter]
Did Dr. Dugdale intend to imply that the superiority of breastfeeding had not been adequately demonstrated? If so, he should look again. It is clearly superior in all settings, not just for babies in the 3rd World for whom the World Health Organization code was intended. Although the reasons are complex, deaths and a variety of nonfatal illnesses (not just diarrhea) are much less frequent among breastfed infants even in industrial nations. I have compiled a bibliography of the accumulating evidence, which I should be happy to send to anyone who requests it. Dr. Dugdale seems to imply that mothers in developing countries are not easily deluded by commercial promotion. If not, they are unlike the mothers I have known and instructed across the social spectrum, including those in 3rd World enclaves such as American Indian reservations. Dr. Dugdale's call for scientific evidence regarding the impact of formula promotion on mothers and babies is high-sounding but it comes too late. Where was he when the marketing juggernaut shifted from the industrial West to the developing nations? Where were physicians 30 years ago when the manufacturers really began their push? (full text)
A survey to identify university student attitudes toward the role of government in controlling human population growth.
The purpose of this study was to obtain, measure, and evaluate student attitudes on domestic population issues in order to determine the extent of support for a national population stabilization program and the concomitant role of government in controlling population growth. 125 University of Central Florida students participated in the study. They were asked to respond to a 24 item questionnaire. It was concluded that there is a perceived problem and that private and voluntary means to achieve population stability are preferrable over that of government intervention and the use of economic deterrents/incentives. The survey was both supportive and nonsupportive of portions of earlier surveys on domestic population growth. (author's modified)
Menstrual regulation and contraception in Bangladesh: competing or complementary?
To examine the relationship between menstrual regulation (MR) and subsequent use of contraception in Bangladesh, we studied the birth control practices of a 6 month cohort of 4359 family planning acceptors in a family planning clinic in Dacca. The authors compared their use of birth control measures before and after MR. There was an attempt to examine the subsequent pregnancy and induced abortion rates of 1671 of these women through a 3 year nonconcurrent prospective study. Of those, 1172 made their 1st visit to the clinic to obtain MR and the remaining 499 women, who served as a comparison group, made their 1st visit to obtain contraceptive services not associated with MR. 3 years followup data were available for 558 women in the MR group and 228 women in the comparison group. Based on these data, the 3 year pregnancy rate for the MR group was 37.6/100 women and the induced abortion rate was 4.3/100 women. The 3 year pregnancy rate for the comparison group was 39/100 women and induced abortion rate was 3.5/100 pregnancies. Thus, over a 3 year period, women in the MR group did not obtain abortions significantly more often than women in the comparison group. (author's modified)
Effect of oral contraception on serum bile acid.
18 normal women, 20 with active schistosomiasis, and 25 with past histories of viral hepatitis were given a contraceptive pill containing 0.05 mg ethinyl estradiol and 0.5 mg levonorgestrel for 6 consecutive cycles. Serum bile acids were measured by enzyme immunoassay method before and after 3 and 6 months of use. Simultaneously, conventional liver function tests (serum bilirubin, transaminases, alkaline phosphatase, and albumin) were done. Serum bile acid concentration was not significantly changed by contraceptive use in any group. The concentration of cholylglycine (the main bile acid measured) did not correlate with the values of any of the other tests. Pretreatment values of serum cholylglycine were significantly lower in the past-hepatitis group. The difference was maintained during treatment. (author's modified)
Trends in maternal and infant health factors associated with low infant birth weight, United States, 1972 and 1980.
Presently, low birthweight--weight less than 2500 g (5 pounds 8 ounces)--is recognized as the single most significant characteristic of the newborn associated with a greater risk of mortality and morbidity. This paper highlights maternal and infant health factors associated with low birthweight, using data from the 1972 and 1980 National Natality Surveys. Both surveys provide important information related to low birthweight that is not typically available from standard birth certificates and therefore not part of the usual natality vital statistics. In addition, induction of labor and cesarean section deliveries (1st and repeat cesareans) were examined for 1980 to assess whether their use has exerted an influence on low birthweight. (author's modified)
Infant health consequences of childbearing by teenagers and older mothers.
The assocation of childbearing at early and late ages with variouis adverse pregnancy outcomes was explored in data collected in the 1980 National Natality and Fetal Mortality Surveys. The characteristics of interest for teenage mothers were marital status at conception and pregnancy trimester in which prenatal care was begun. For married mothers ages 30 and older, the variables considered were employment status and occupation during the year prior to childbirth and smoking status prior to and during pregnancy. The pregnancy outcome variables analyzed were the same for both groups of mothers: fetal loss, low birthweight, and low 1-minute Apgar scores. Although more than 1/2 of all births to teenage mothers were to unmarried women, an additional 1/4 of these births were to women who married between the time of conception and birth of the child. Generally, there was little difference in outcome for teenage mothers who were married at the time of delivery, regardless of marital status at the time of conception. Pregnancy outcomes for teenagers who did not marry prior to delivery were considerably less favorable. Nearly 90% of women ages 30-34 who had a 1st birth in 1980 were employed during the year before delivery, an extraordinarily high labor force participation rate. More than 1/2 of those employed mothers were professionals, consistent with their very high levels of educational attainment. Although the analysis is limited by the small numbers of births involved, it appears that professionally employed women generally have the best pregnancy outcomes. When mother's smoking status is taken into account, nonsmokers had more favorable outcomes, with births to professionally employed mothers generally most favored. (author's modified)
Pregnancy and infant health: progress toward the 1990 objectives.
Assuring all infants a healthy start in life and enhancing the health of their mothers are goals of the Public Health Service's health promotion and disease prevention initiative. The 13 priority objectives selected for the pregnancy and infant health area of the initiative focus on lowering infant, neonatal, and perinatal mortality rates, reducing the number of low birthweight infants, improving the health care of pregnant women and infants through regionalized perinatal care systems and comprehensive primary care services, encouraging early prenatal care and healthy lifestyles in pregnancy, and targetting the factors and populations associated with health risk. Although considerable progress has been made in this century in lowering the infant mortality rate, infants continue to die at a higher rate than members of any other age category under 60 years, and black infants die at almost twice the rate of white infants. To lower these high mortality rates, the private, public, and voluntary sectors have cooperated in new approaches to perinatal and infant health that have already produced some encouraging results. Recent data, for example, indicate that the priority objective of universal screening of newborns for treatable metabolic disorders has already been achieved and that the target for neonatal and infant mortality rates could be reached earlier than 1990. Substantial challenges, however, lie ahead if the current racial and ethnic differentials evident in the rates for prenatal care registration, low birthweight babies, and maternal and infant mortality are to be eliminated. (author's)
Normal values for peripheral blood white cell counts in women of four different ethnic origins.
Total and differential white cell counts were studied in 399 women living in the same community in Britain but drawn from 4 different ethnic groups. The groups were white (northern European), Indian, black (African and West Indian), and Oriental. The total white cell count and absolute neutrophil count were significantly lower among the blacks than in each of the other groups. The absolute monocyte count was higher in whites than in each of the other groups. Contrary to earlier reports, the absolute eosinophil count in blacks was no higher than in whites, suggesting that the high eosinophil counts previously found had environmental rather than genetic causes. The eosinophil count of Indians was only marginally higher than that of whites and the difference was not significant, again suggesting that high eosinophil counts previously reported had an environmental cause. No ethnic variation was found in the absolute lymphocyte count. The lower white cell count and neutrophil count found in blacks is of considerable practical importance, and blacks should not be assessed in relation to reference ranges derived for whites. Nevertheless the eosinophil count in healthy blacks is no higher than that of whites and counts above reference ranges for whites should be considered clinically important. The differences between white cell counts of Indians and Orientals and those of whites are minor and for practical purposes they can be assessed in relation to reference ranges derived for whites. (author's modified)
Global food prospects: good news.
The author presents evidence to refute Lester R Brown's pessimistic views regarding global food prospects. If historical trends continue, the food situation can be expected to improve rather than worsen. Brown's forecasts about declining food production and price rises stem from his tendency to examine short-run rather than long-run trends. Long-run data indicate an impressive 2.5% increase/year in food production/person. The data further indicate long-run declines in food prices, whether measured relative to wages, as a proportion of total income, or relative to the prices of consumer goods. US soil surveys provide no support for Brown's contention that soil erosion has reached alarming levels; in fact, the quality of cropland has been improved by shifts in land use. Similarly, US agricultural productivity, including corn and soybean yields, continues to increase rather than decline. The discrepancy between the author's conclusions and those of Brown is attributed to Brown's failure to offer trend data pertaining to the issues in dispute.
The scarcity of raw materials: a challenge to the conventional wisdom.
This article refutes the popular belief that we are entering an age of scarce natural resources. Longterm trends in the 3 measures of scarcity--price, production costs, and share of income--do not support this assumption. Prices for coal, oil, and electricity relative to the average hourly wage of factory workers have followed a sharp and steady decline over time. Even when relatively conservative estimates of future extraction developments are used, many forecasters report that enormous amounts of natural resources will continue to be available. The long-run trend is for a continuous decline in both cost and scarcity of natural materials with the growth of income and technology. The sharp rise in crude oil prices that occurred in the 1970s resulted from political power struggles rather than rising extraction costs, and thus does ont contradict the prediction that energy will become more available and less costly. It is concluded that the boundless nature of human ingenuity will enable future populations to obtain all the mineral raw materials that are needed.
Population density and growth [letter]
Along with many kind comments in his October 23 review of my book "The Ultimate Resource," Professor D. Gale Johnson described as erroneous a statistical interpretation which I believe sound. Referring to a positive observed relationship between (other things being held equal) countries' population densities and their rates of growth of per capita income, which I say suggests that density causes growth, Mr. Johnson asks: "But how does Mr. Simon know that it isn't the other way around? Population may become more dense because of migration into areas of higher per capita incomes. Hong Kong is a convincing example of such a possibility." It is logically reasonable to suppose that density affects income growth and not the other way around (assuming that the observed relationship is not an artifact of poor data or of unmentioned faults in analysis) because density differs markedly among countries, and there is much less relative variation among countries than is the case with income growth. The rank-order of countries by density was very much the same before as it was after the postwar study period covered by the research Mr. Johnson refers to. And decades ago Hong Kong (also Singapore) had very high relative density just as now. In 1960 Hong Kong's density was already 2236 people/square mile, far ahead of the next most densely populated countries (except for Singapore) that had around 300 people/square mile. Its rapid rise to 3891 people/square mile in 1970 did not change its relative position. Therefore the results of the analysis could not have been affected much by any change in population size and density. That is, this constancy in relative density renders it statistically unlikely that the observed relationship can be explained by a change in income growth over a couple of decades. (Furthermore, density was measured at the beginning of the study period, making it technically unlikely that the income growth in the period to follow could be seen as the cause of the original density. This is an additional safeguard against the possibility of erroneous interpretation that Mr. Johnson raised.) I hope that Mr. Johnson will now find my discussion of population less "infuriatingly unfounded." (full text)
Worldwide, land for agriculture is increasing, actually.
Despite popular belief to the contrary, the overall trend shows increasing rather than decreasing amounts of agricultural land. In developed countries, the absolute amount of land/farmer is increasing, despite increases in population. Although the total amount of cultivated land has declined somewhat in countries such as the US, total agricultural output and yield/acre have risen as a result of technological advances. Moreover, the use of land for urbanization and transportation purposes has had no significant effect on agriculture. The large amount of cropland created yearly through irrigation, swamp drainage, and other reclamation techniques more that offsets the amount of land converted to cities and highways. In addition, the average American has greater access to recreational land and wilderness than at any other point in history due to modern transportation. Although countries must give attention to increasing and improving their stock of good land, there is no basis in reality for panic or for opposition to economic and population growth.
Adding up the costs of our new immigrants.
1976 Census Bureau survey data from 156,000 households, including 15,000 immigrant households, were analyzed to determine the economic costs of immigration. Whereas the average native-born US family receives US$2279 from welfare services, the average immigrant family receives US$1404 in welfare services in years 1-5 after entry into the US, US$1941 in years 6-10, US$2247 in years 11-15, and US$2279 in years 16-25. Immigrant family earnings reach and surpass those of the average native family within 3-5 years after entry. Moreover, the average native family paid US$3008 in taxes in 1975 compared with US$3359 for immigrant families in the US 10 years, US$3564 for those in the country 11-15 years, and US$3592 for families in the US 16-25 years. Consolidation of data on services used and taxes paid indicates the public coffers are enriched each year by an average of US$1354 for immigrant families in years 1-5, US$1329 in years 6-10, US$1535 in years 11-15, and US$1353 in years 16-25. The value of an immigrant family discounted at 3% was US$20,600 in 1975 dollars, almost twice the average earnings of a native family. Illegal aliens make almost no use of public services, but pay 77% Social Security taxes and 73% have federal income taxes withheld. The additional jobs created by immigrants' puchases balance out the jobs immigrants take within existing occupations. In the long-run, productivity increases arising from immigrant labor create large increments to natives' incomes. Overall, this analysis suggests that immigrants benefit natives by using less than their share of government services and paying more than their share of taxes. Viewed in economic terms, immigrants can be considered an "excellent bargain."
The Jewish dimension among recent Soviet immigrants to the United States.
The strength of the ties of Soviet immigrants to the US Jewish community was assessed in a survey of 900 Soviet Jewish families living in 14 US cities. Being Jewish was very important to 57% of respondents and somewhat important to 28%; 90% would choose to be born Jewish if given a choice. 42% of immigrants considered themselves to be somewhat, fairly, or very religious at the time of the survey compared with 15% when they lived in the Soviet Union. 7% reported regular and 75% reported occasional temple or synagogue attendance in the US. Older respondents were more likely to affiliate with an Orthodox synagogue, wheras younger respondents showed a marked preference for Reform Judaism. However, less than 10% belong to Jewish fraternal or community organizations, and the majority do not observe traditional religious practices. Respondents age 50 years and very consistently demonstrated stronger religious attachments. Although respondents indicated they would not encourage their children to settle in Israel, the large majority want them to receive a good Jewish education, affiliate with the American Jewish community, and observe Jewish religious practices, even in cases where the respondents do not. Later surveys should seek to examine Jewish identity and affilitation patterns among the younger cohort of Soviet Jewish immigrants.
International environmental issues.
There is growing agreement throughout the world that sound economic growth depends upon sound environmental practice. The UN Environmental Program (UNEP) meeting scheduled to be held in Nairobi in May 1982 is expected to strengthen national commitments to environmental management and to promote improved coordination of international environmental programs. In the last decade, the interrelationships among individual components of the various ecosystems have become more complex, creating a need to strengthen understanding of environmental problems and processes. US participation in the conference will be guided by a series of global environmental principles, including the following: 1) environmental policy must be based on the needs of both present and future generations, 2) careful stewardship of the earth's natural resource base will contribute significantly to economic development, 3) biological diversity must be maintained, 4) governments should collaborate on addressing problems that extend beyond national boundaries, and 5) both governments and individuals should ensure that their activities do not produce environmental degradation. The US delegation further intends to register its support for the original UNEP concept and call for a narrowing of its program focus, with emphasis on the following areas: environmental monitoring and assessment, information dissemination to governments, environmental education and training, the regional seas program, management of land and biological resources, and control of potentially toxic substances. Intra-UN program coordination and reduction of country-level operational activities will also be urged.
The mixed effects of income upon successive births may explain the convergence phenomenon.
Parity-progression and birth-order transition analyses were performed in a cross-sectional multivariate study of 1960 Census data on the fertility of US women ages 35-54 years. The relationship between income and the probabiliity of another birth was found to be positive at low birth orders but negative at high birth orders. Higher husband's income was positively associated with the family having at least 1 child rather than 0; however, the probability of an additional child became negative at the 3rd or 4th birth. Income had a greater positive effect on fertility in the case of high income groups than of low income groups. This phenomenon may help explain the convergence of the US population to 2-4 child families and away from families with fewer than 2 or more than 4 children. Whether an increase in income will have a positive or negative effect on the central value of the distribution is determined by the original distribution of people in the various subgroups and the effects of income on these subgroups. Increasing the income of poorer people can be expected to cause some to leave both ends of the distribution and to obtain a family size closer to the center of the distribution.
The effect of population density on infrastructure: the case of road building.
A cross-sectional analysis of 113 countries in 1968 indicates that population density has a significant and strong effect on total road density. An elasticity of 0.73 of road density with respect to population density was obtained. Time-series analysis confirmed this finding. An elasticity higher than unity was obtained for paved road construction. The effect on unpaved roads was somewhat smaller (0.6 elasticity) but still significant. These results suggest that population increases produce more available infrastructure/worker. The effects of both population density and per capita income on road construction are influenced by the stage of economic development. When the sample was divided into 3 income subsamples, increased population density and per capita income were found to cause the substitution of paved for unpaved roads in the richer countries. At lower levels of income, per capita income is less important than population density in influencing road construction since village volunteer labor can be substituted for money expenditures.
Some aspects of the socio-cultural adjustment of recent Soviet immigrants to the United States.
The sociocultural adjustment of recent (1972-80) Soviet immigrants was analyzed in a survey of 900 Soviet Jewish families in 14 US cities. In 1980, 83% of the men and 75% of the women in the sample were in the labor force full-time, with incomes averaging US$14,607 adn US$7,627, respectively. THe respondents' education, technical skills and previous experience of living in large urban cities facilitated their entry into skilled positions in the labor force. 35% of respondents reported they were very satisfied with their jobs and 49% were moderately satisfied. A large majority indicated their lives are better in the US than in the Soviet Union with respect to housing, income, overall standard of living, and Jewish aspects. However, most felt their lives were better in the Soviet Union in terms of cultural life, friendships, and social status. 75% of respondents claimed that learning English represented a major problem in resettlement and 50% were attending special English classes. 26% of the families lived in mostly Jewish neighborhoods, 53% in mixed Jewish and non-Jewish neighborhoods, and 16% in non_Jewish neighborhoods. 72% said that all of their close friends were Jews, and 55% noted that all their friends were recent Soviet immigrants. Less than 2% of respondents were involved with Zionist organizations and only 8% wee active in a Russian Jewish group. Within 5 years, 60% expect to have an income comparable to that of the average American family and 24% anticipate above average incomes. 16% of respondents indicated they are very happy with their situation, 62% are pretty happy, and 22% are not too happy. Immigrants who arrived before 1978 were more likely to say they are very happy than later arrivals (35 vs. 11%, respectively). When asked what choice they would make if they could do it again, 86% said they would come to the US, 5% would opt to remain in the Soviet Union, 6% would migrate to Israel, 1% would select another country, and 2% did not respond.
In defense: The Ultimate Resource [letter]
The author challenges the concept of finitude of resources, a critical premise of the neo-Malthusian school. The term "finite," which implies measurability, is shown to be not meaningful in the context of the future availability of natural resources and to lead to unsound conclusions. Historical evidence on the prices of resources has not revealed any increase in scarcity. Oil is examined as a specific example of the difficulties inherent in forming an operational estimate of the future supply of energy. The number of potential oil wells is not measurable, and the possibilities of producing oil from other sources (e.g. coal, soybeans) are limitless. In addition, it is erroneous to assume that current scientific thought will be operative millions or billions of years into the future. It is concluded that the use of the term "finite" represents an arbitrary choice and assumes an inherent orderliness when, in fact, we impose mental constructions upon a nature that is nonchaotic rather than lawful.
Immigrants, taxes, and welfare in the United States.
This paper investigates the balance of transfer payments between immigrants and natives in the US. Data were drawn from a Bureau of Census survey of 1975 incomes and use of social services by 15,000 immigrant families and 11,000 native-born families. During the 1st 12 years after entry into the US, immigrant families use substantially fewer public services than native families, largely due to their negligible use of Social Security; thereafter, use is roughly equal. Moreover, after 3-5 years, immigrant families contribute as much as native families in taxes; subsequently, they pay considerably more. Since immigrants contribute more to the public coffers than they take out, immigration can be regarded as an excellent investment. The economic benefits derive mainly from the young age composition of the immigrant population rather than from behavior characteristics of immigrants. At a 3% discount rate, each immigrant family is worth about US$20,600 to natives (1975 figure) compared with the mean yearly native family income of US$11,307. This value is US$15,800 at a 6% discount, and $12,400 at a 9% discount. Although the benefits of immigration outweigh its costs at the aggregate level, it is recognized that both benefits and costs are unequally distributed by geographic locale. Finally, it is noted that public policies aimed at increasing the educational level and lowering the age of immigrants will produce even greater economic benefits to the US.
Life on earth is getting better, not worse.
On the basis of an examination of trends in the areas of life expectancy, pollution control, resource availability, food supply, and income, the author asserts that life on earth is improving rather than deteriorating. There have been rapid gains in life expectancy, expecially in developing countries, and the incidencs of both acute and chronic diseases has declined. Although pollution has increased in developing countries as a result of industrialization, further increases in income are expected to bring about pollution abatement. Measured by cost or price, the scarcity of most raw materials has been decreasing and resources can be expected to become more abundant and cheaper in the future. Evidence further indicates that the food supply is increasing despite rising population. Although the earth's flora and fauna must be guarded, there appears to be little basis for alarm about widespread extinctions. Finally, economic trends indicate a shortening of the work week coupled with rising incomes. THe enhancement of material life has been stimulated rather than hindered by population growth. Productivity has increased as a result of additional minds to develop productive new ideas as well as the additional demand for goods. Human energy, enthusiasm, and ingenuity provide the basis for optimism regarding a solid economic future.
A policy to promote the world's economic development with migration.
This paper proposes a scheme of large-scale migration from poor countries to rich ones to speed up economic development and raise the world's economic level. The key behavioral mechanism is nonschool learning; as migrants and their children take on the culture of the rich country, they acquire the skills and attitudes necessary for modern industrial production. Rich nations will not voluntarily open their borders to such immigration. A change in the international system is therefore suggested, giving power of taxation to an international body. This body would then hold an auction among the rich countries for immigration contracts. Though the present international system makes no provision for such policies, it makes sense to discuss and analyze the policies now, to be ready for any possible future changes and perhaps to help stimulate changes on the international level. (author's modified)
The positive effect of population growth on agricultural saving in irrigation systems.
Data from a pooled sample of 48 less developed countries on the relationship between population density/acre cultivated land and the proportion of cultivated land that has been irrigated were analyzed to determine the effect of population growth on irrigation investment. The data indicate that population density has a positive effect on the building of irrigation systems. This relationship was somewhat strengthened by the addition of variables such as the cultivated area as a proportion of the total area, per capita income, geographic dummies, and the population density with respect to the country's entire land area. In addition, historical data suggest that population growth stimulates land clearing. An average of 18.4% of cultivated land in the countries analyzed is irrigated, indicating a 1% increase in population density would produce a 0.48% increase in the stock of irrigated land. This 0.48% population growth elasticity for irrigation systems contrasts with Leiff's -.56 elasticity of national income savings. Additional research is required to determine the direction of the net effect of population growth on total investment; however, it can be assumed that the effect on agricultural investment is positive.
Don't close our borders.
The author presents research evidence to refute 5 arguments advanced by opponents of immigration. 1st, it is claimed that the US is being flooded with Mexican illegals; however, statisticians estimate that the total number of illegals is 3.5-5 million, only 1.3 million of whom intend to remain in the US permanently. 2nd, it is popularly believed that illegal and legal immigrants abuse welfare and government services. Although 77% of illegals pay social security taxes and 73% have federal taxes withheld, almost none receive social security and only a tiny fraction benefit from government services. On balance, immigrants contribute an average of US$1300 or more to public coffers each year the family is in the US. 3rd, it is claimed that immigration is at its highest level; yet, statistical analysis indicates that the proportion of immigrants in the US declined from 9.6% in 1901-10 to 1.6% in 1961-70. A 4th widely held belief is that immigrants are uneducated and unskilled; however, immigrants tend to be at the prime of their work life and of comparable educational level to natives. The 5th argument is that immigration causes native unemployment. This static approach overlooks the fact that immigration creates jobs as well. Immigrants' purchases increase the demand for labor, and many open small businesses that create new jobs. It is concluded that immigrants contribute healthy benefits to the US economy--as workers, consumers, enterpreneurs, and taxpayers. Moreover, the US needs more rather than fewer immigrants to compensate for the declining size of the labor force.
The effect of population growth upon the quantity of education children receive: a reply.
The authors respond to an article by Meeks which asserts that a high child to adult population ratio reduces adult per capita income and hence retards the quantity of children's education. Meeks' equations were reestimated using the studentized residual from the fitted regression rather than the F-test. For the 20 more developed countries in the sample, the largest absolute studentized residual was not significant at the 5% level, confirming Meeks' results. For the 44 less developed countries, the largest studentized residual (for Nepal) was significant at the 1% level, supporting Meeks' argument that Nepal should be treated as an outlier. Dropping Nepal from the data set raised the significance of the coefficient on the child to adult population ratio. However, a systematic association was noted between poverty, low educational expenditures, and missing data. When the sample was augmented for countries for which educational expenditure data could be obtained from another source, the coefficient for child to adult population ratio became small and decidedly not significant statistically. These results suggest that population growth depresses educational expenditures in more developed countries, but much less so or not at all in less developed countries. Differences in the quality of data may play a role.
Linguistic confusion in economics: utility, causality, product differentiation, and the supply of natural resources.
Lack of careful attention to the language used in the discussion of economic concepts has resulted in considerable confusion and error. 2 frequent sources of confusion include tautology and the absence of operational definitions of concepts. This paper outlines a more effective scientific practice through reference to 2 economic examples: 1) the concept of utility, where it is demonstrated that choice of an operational definition of the concept facilitates interpersonal comparisons; and 2) causality, where a multidimensional operational definition is needed to discriminate among the various meanings of the term in theoretical, empirical, and policy contexts. The paper further discusses the example of natural resource scarcity, where application of the term "finite" reveals that there is no empirical evidence of physical limits to growth in the use of resources. A more appropriate measure of scarcity is the economic concept of price. (summaries in FRE, GER)
Environmental disruption or environmental improvement?
In response to Ehrlich's assertion that the environment faces unprecedented disruption, the author presents evidence to support the opposite view: pollution is declining, the supply of arable land is increasing, world resources are becoming less scarce, and population growth does not represent a major threat. It is maintained that Ehrlich's work is characterized by a disregard of historical trends, exaggerated statements regarding the seriousness of environmental threats, the reduction of complex relationships to simple slogans, and use of irrelevant theoretical ideas from other sciences. The widespread acceptance of Ehrlich's perspective is attributed to his simplified answers and use of what appear to be scientifically warranted, value-free arguments. However, Ehrlich's assertions about population are deeply rooted in his own values, and there is a danger that false threats are can reduce the credibility of true threats.
Population growth may be good for LDCs in the long run: a richer simulation model.
This paper reexamines the theory that high fertility and positive population growth exert a negative effect on output/worker and income/consumer equivalent. A model is constructed that includes all the elements found in other models of population growth in less developed countries (e.g., diminishing returns, effect of dependency), but also incorporates other elements such as demand and its effect on investment, the shift of labor from agriculture to industry, the work-leisure choice, and economies of scale. In addition, the model substitutes an accelerator investment function for the constant proportion of output function used in other models. The simulation indicates that moderate population growth produces considerably better economic performance in the long-run (120-80 years) than slower population growth, although a stationary population perform slightly better in the short-run (60 years). Estimates of the parameters for a representative Asian less developed country suggest that moderate population growth (doubling over 50 years) performs better in the long-run than either fast population growth (doubling over 35 years or less) or slow population growth (doubling over 200 years). The importance of this model rests in its finding that there are some sets of conditions under which fairly high fertility gives better economic performance at some times than low fertility, while the opposite is the case under other sets of conditions. Since different parameters produce different rates of optimum population growth, no 1 fertility structure can be assumed to be unconditionally better than another. Finally, these results imply that a more complex, quantitatively based theory of population growth is required.
The evolution of Soviet family policy: female liberation versus social cohesion
Changes in Soviet family policy since the 1917 Revolution are charted. The author notes that family policy has been affected on the one hand by the need to promote the emancipation of women, and on the other hand by the need to maintain social cohesion. It is observed that, following the Revolution, legislation was passed granting easy divorce, abortion, and cohabitation, which led in turn to fertility declines and many social problems. This was followed by a period under Stalin in which motherhood and the family were strongly promoted. Current policies remain ambivalent in that women are encouraged both to join the labor force and to be full-time homemakers. The implications of current demographic trends and the need both to encourage fertility and to cope with a declining labor force are considered. (summary in FRE, SPA)
Migration planning: the case for Tunisia
The effect of various government policies on migration patterns in Tunisia in the absence of a specific policy on internal migration and spatial distribution is analyzed. A review of possible measures available for altering migration patterns is presented. The author concludes that long-term changes in population distribution can only be achieved by specific migration policies that seek to modify the urban bias in the aspirations of migrant populations or that try to alter fundamentally the structure of national settlement systems. (ANNOTATION)
[Fertility decline and family planning in Reunion]
Recent declines in fertility in Reunion are analyzed. It is noted that the reproduction rate has declined by about 50 percent in only a decade. The author suggests that this rapid change is due to two factors, namely, a change in family models and an effective family planning policy. An analysis of the factors that have led to the success of the family planning program is provided. (summary in ENG) (ANNOTATION)
An economic-demographic approach to forecasting national and subnational birth rates
This paper conceptualizes and tests a multivariate fertility projection model that incorporates both economic and demographic determinants. Through a simutanious system approach, the focus in on the linked decision areas for women concerning age at marriage, childbearing, labor force participation, and education. Age and race-specific fertility projections for the US for the 1978-85 period are generated. The model is estimated using national data and then the results are modified for subnational projections, specifically for the state of Illinois. Projections of total fertility rates show relative stability to 1980, and then a modest but sustained upward drift in the rates for both whites and nonwhites from 1981 onwards. These projections are supportive of the Easterlin hypothesis and show the importance of the relative cohort size factor in determining the direction of fertility. However, these results suggest that the upturn will be relatively modest due to strong offsetting forces. The pronounced increase in the nonwhite 15-19 year age group underpins the more rapid increase in the nonwhite total fertility rate. National-subnational differentials will reflect structural differences in dimensions such as rural-urban population distribution, religious and ethnic configurations, and occupational patterns. These results justify further research on the potential and form of the economic-demographic approach to projecting fertility rates at the various geographic levels. Such research could focus on the lag structure of the structural equations, the need for greater specificity in the selection of variables for the disaggregated age groups, the operational delineation of the components of the national-subnational differential in birthrates, and relative changes in these elements over time.
The delineation of fertility strategies in a tribal population of India: the Koyas of Koraput District, Orissa
Demographic data collected for a tribal population of India, the Koyas of Koraput District, Orissa, were examined in light of 2 models of reproductive behavior associated with the economic value of children: the replacement effect and son survivorship motivation. Both models are united in the concept that infant/child mortality affects subsequent fertility. The database consists of retrospective fertility histories of Koya women who had completed their reproductive period. The total number was 260, with the total offspring numbering 1407. 2 distinct cohorts of women were formed for the purpose of analysis, separated only by the criterion of offspring survival: women who had experienced infant child mortality (129 women with 739 children); and women who completed their reproductive period without suffering offspring loss of this nature (132 women with 668 children). The cohort without child loss had a mean parity of 5.10, lower than the average parity of 5.73 recorded for the cohort whose reproductive histories included at least 1 infant/child death. Age specific marital fertility and birth interval analyses indicated that this differential was because of biological, not behavioral, factors. The age pattern of fertility of females suffering offspring mortality failed to demonstrate a high rate of childbearing in the later age intervals of the reproductive period, a characteristic pattern of couples attempting to "replace" lost offspring. Birth interval analysis pointed to biological "interval effect," whereby infant/child mortality caused a cessation of lactation and hence a shortening of postpartum amenorrhea. Computer simulation further indicated that the higher fertility differential of the cohort experiencing offspring loss still did not result in high son survivorship values. The findings agree with earlier studies indicating that for predemographic transitional populations, economically motivated fertility strategies are ineffectual.
The baby boom and its explanations
Explanations of the marked rise in the birthrate that occurred in the US during the late 1940's and the 1950's, the "baby boom," were examined in light of the recent research on the nature and magnitude of its demographic components. Discussion includes a review of the fertility surveys that derived from concern about postwar fertility trends, the kind and relative importance of the demographic components constituting the fertility increase of the period, an assessment of explanations of the baby boom, and a reinterpretation of the rise in average family size that was a demographically small but theoretically significant part of the increase in the birthrate. Clearly, the baby boom had many causes. Theories about the effects of economic prosperity and relative cohort size offer aggregate level bases for accounting for the 2 major contributing factors to the baby boom, namely earlier childbearing and the increase in the proportion of women having at least 2 children. Yet, these explanations are incomplete unless some operating role is assigned to other factors. This is particularly clear in explaining the proportion of women having at least 2 children. This proportion increased substantially during the baby boom years, but family sizes also became more homogeneous as the relative number of large families decreased. In the aggregate, more and more couples enjoyed conditions that enabled them to realize this "normative" fertility. These conditions did not foster an increase in "discretionary" fertility beyond the norm. The individual level mechanisms, inplied by the hypothesis that fertility moves procyclically with economic conditions and that it varies inversely with cohort sizes, do not seem to have operated at higher parities. Analysis of the explanations of the slight increase in average family size occurring during the baby boom -- much of which was attributable to unintended fertility, suggest that social and cultural factors during the era supported having families, while at the same time increasing the cost of having large families. If economic prosperity made marriage and family formation easier, increasing labor force participation among married women of childbearing ages in the absence of changes in traditional sex role attitudes made having large families more difficult.
[A new view on fertility developments during the years 1965-1980 in Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia]
Fertility trends for the period 1965 to 1980 are examined for the Bulgarian, Czech, and Slovak populations using a method proposed by Bogue. The method enables a distinction to be made between period and cohort changes. The impact of pro-natalist policies on the fertility of these three populations is considered. (summary in ENG, RUS) (ANNOTATION)
A diffusion process approximation of human fertility transition
The demographic transition theory, developed on the basis of the experiences of western nations, posits that a nation moves from a high birthrate-high death rate to a low birthrate-low death rate situation. Fertility declined sharply during the depression period and rose as the economic conditions improved; the authors take time and the state space as continuous, and work out a diffusion approximation of the fertility trajectory. By considering the total fertility rate, which is age standardized, the fluctuations arising from changing age distrubution are eliminated. This model is applied to Canadian fertility during the period 1921-76. The value predicted for 1980 by the model is 1826. To see how the draft coefficients change, the log-normal approximation was performed for the periods 1941-60, 1941-76, and 1961-76.
A tale of two generations: a qualitative analysis of fertility transition in Thailand
Due to the rapidity and magnitude of reproductive change in Thailand, both older generations who were experiencing their family building under a pretransition fertility regime and a younger generation who were effectively limiting their family size to 2 or 3 children reside side by side in virtually every village and town. This provides the opportunity for comparing pre-and posttransition generations within a single research effort. This study attempts this by analyzing qualitative information gathered through focus group sessions centering on questions regarding recent reproductive change conducted with older and younger generation Thai men and women. A focus group session consists of a group discussion in which a small number of participants (usually 6-9) under the guidance of a moderator discuss topics of importance to the particular research study. The project was designed to facilitate a comparison between the modal pre- and post-fertility decline generations. The pretansition generation was defined as married persons who had experienced most or all of their childbearing prior to the rapid changes in reproductive behavior that occurred over the last decade adn who had 5 or more living children. The posttransition generation was defined as young married persons, under 30 for women and under 35 for men, who wanted to have 2 or 3 children and who had not yet exceeded that number. Complete sets of 4 focus group sessions were held in 1 village each in the Central, Northern, and Northeastern regions and in both a Moslem and a Buddhist village in the South. Additionally, all but an older generation men's session were held among participants recruited from rural migrants living at construction sites in Bangkok, resulitng in a total of 23 sessions. Findings are presented in the following categories: perception of fertility decline; fertility regulation among the older generation; latent demand for birth control; fertility regulation among the younger generation; child mortality reduction; societal change; and reproductive decision making. Acocording to older generation participants as well as considerable other evidence, effective birth control means were neither known nor practiced among the vast majority of rural Thais until recently. The existence of considerable latent demand for fertility regulation helps explain why organized efforts to provide contraception to couples throughout Thailand met with immediate success. The development of these efforts began during the mid 1960s and by 1972, following implementation of a policy to distribute oral contraceptives and condoms through local level health stations, had more or less penetrated the entire country side; processes of fundamental social and economic change have been under way in Thailand for some time, and they are responsible in part for the latent demand for fertility control among the older generation and for the current desire for small families among the younger generation. There are several important cultural traits characteristic of Thais which can be considered conducive to the adoption of birth control and the limitation of family size as a way to adjust to changing socioeconomic circumstances.
The rural Chinese fertility transition: a report from Shifang Xian, Sichuan
An anatomy of the fertility decline in 1 commune of Sichuan Province, Nanquan Commune in Shifang County, China, was conducted based on interviews with 528 ever married women from a random sample of commune households. This commune has already achieved 1 child/family fertility and is thus years ahead of the rest of rural China in fertility performance. Yet, it can be shown that the commune's experience over the past 2 decades has much in common with rural China at large and this permits some general conclusions. The Shifang data suggest that marriage ages were rising as a trend in response to socioeconomic change beginning in the 1940s. Official encouragement for later marriage in the 1960s had no perceptible effect, since there was no sharp discontinuity in female marriage ages in the pre-and post-1960 periods. From the mid 1940s to 1970, mean age rose approximately 1 year/decade. The trend beginning in 1971 is quite different. Mean age rises from 19.5 in 1971 to 23.5 in 1979, a rate greater than 4 years/decade, 4 times the previous rate of increase. The latter rise was in response to administrative regulation of marriage age, essentially, the refusal to register marriages that did not meet the policy criteria. As a model of birth planning, Shifang enforced these regulations more strictly than other places. The policy has now been abandoned. For Nanquan, birth planning work began to show effects as early as 1965, but 1966 was the 1st big push of the program. The story is much the same for rural China as a whole, but if the original decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) began nearly simutaneouly, subsequent years were substanitally different. Nanquan's fertility control program was based largely on sterilization. This was most likely atypical of early efforts. When the Cultural Revolution began to disrupt birth planning work in the late 1960s, Nanquan's fertility did not rise much. Elsewhere fertility levels rebounded to their previous levels. The program resumed in 1970, and the steep decline in fertility began in 1971. The TFR of the national rural sample declined only 5% from the postfamine years to the Cultural Revolution peak in 1968-70. Nanquan's fertility declined 24% over the same period, explainable in part by greater reliance on sterilization. Thus, when the "later, longer, fewer" compaingn commenced in 1970, Nanquan had a considerable head start. Nanquan is about 6 years ahead of rural China in general. New provincial level policies, such as the emphasis on sterilization for couples at 2nd parity, are reminiscent of Nanquan policy. 80% of the decline in th TFR for the national rural sample and for Nanquan for 1968-70 to 1977-79 was due to change in marital fertility alone, 15% to nuptiality, and 5% to interaction of the 2 factors. Now earlier marriage and control over the timing of 1st births, involving reliance on contraceptive use by zero parity women, is rapidly replacing the late marriage policy. Possibly the retreat from the late marriage policy anticipates a regime of rural fertility at or below replacement level.
[Non-marital fertility in the Netherlands, 1950-1981]
Between 1950-76, the percentage of nonmarital liveborn children within the total group of liveborn children never exceeded 2.2. From that point on, it increased sharply and in 1982, it amounted to nearly 6%. Nonmarital fertility, defined as the number of nonmarital liveborn children/1000 not married women ages 15-44 dropped slightly during the 1950-55 period, then rose until 1969, decreased in the 1970-74 period, and finally increased continuously from 1975 onward. Nonmarital fertility has always been greatest among unmarried females ages 25-29 and 30-34. In 1970, 1 of 3 nonmarital children was born to a teenage mother, wheras in 1981, this was the case in 1 of 6. During the period 1950-81, about 70% of all nonmarital liveborn children were 1st born to the mother. The proportion of 2nd children has risen sharply from 1970 on, whereas that of birth order 4+ has dropped drastically from 1970 (text-table 2). The latter phenomenon is also found among marital children. Fertility among divorced women is higher than that of widowed and never married females. In text-table 3, it is also clear that the number of children born to divorced and widowed women remains at a more or less constant level, whereas that to never married women show a rapid increase. According to text-table 4, females of different nationalities living in the Netherlands show a larger nonmarital fertility than females with Dutch nationality. However, the proportion of alien nonmarital children within the total group of alien children almost equals the proportion of Dutch nonmarital children within the total group of Dutch children. In the provinces of Noord- and Zuid-Holland, and especially in the large towns (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and The Hague), relatively large numbers of nonmarital children are born (test-tables 5 and 6). This is related to both the large numbers of nonmarital cohabitations in these towns and the relatively large numbers of aliens living there. The increase in nonmarital fertility observed since 1975 is related to: 1) the decreasing number of 1st marriages; 2) the increasing number of divorces; 3) the decreasing number of confinements of marriages with a duration of less than 7 months; and 4) the growing number of nonmarital cohabitations. These developments suggest that nonmarital fertility is due to a qualitative change from predominantly undesired and unplanned confinements to desired and planned pregnancies. (author's modified) (summary in ENG)
[A hypothetical study on the average number of live births per woman needed to keep the population at a fixed level in the future]
This research investigated the average number of livebirths/woman necessary to keep the population at a fixed level. For the population to be maintained at a fixed level, each woman must leave behind a female child to take her place. Assuming the sex ratio at birth as 1.05, this means a woman must give birth to 2.2 children on the average. But due to mortality and to biological factors like sterility and social factors such as the proportion of spinsters and intolerance to illegitimate relations, together with the outmigration of female children and the failure to substitute them by immigration, not every female child born alive can replace her mother in the reproduction process. As a result, even in the most ideal of circumstances, the average mumber of livebirths/woman required to prevent the population from decreasing is likely to exceed 2.2. If the mortality rate is high in a country and various biological and social factors combined with outmigration prevent female children from taking their mother's places, the average number of livebirths/woman necessary to maintain the population at a fixed level should be considerably higher. (author's modified) (summary in ENG)
Popstan: a case study for the 1980 censuses of population and housing. Part C. Phase I: complete count for Popstan census
The 8 chapters of this document cover the following: summary of procedures; questionnaires and concepts; table formats; data collection; manual editing and coding; data keying and computer processing; number of inhabitants; and general characteristics. The 1st chapter simply summarizes the principal activities that are to be carried out in Phase 1 of the Popstan Census. Another purpose of the chapter is to bring together the operational and quality control procedures that must be carried out. Only 1 basic questionnaire is needed for Phase 1. It is a line type questionnaire with verbatim questions to assist enumerators in collecting the specific information that is wanted and to help ensure consistency in asking the questions. The subjects to be covered in Popstan's 1980 Census were determined during the early stages of planning. Table outlines are developed at the same time as the questionnaire in order to ensure that no item of information that is required in the publication tables is omitted from the questionnaire. In planning the publication tables, primary consideration is given to the recommendations in the "UN Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses." These recommendations include tabulations as well as concepts and procedures. A major element in the development of the overall census plan was the preparation of a network analysis. The schedule for data collection was established in the construction of the network analysis. Discussion of data collection covers: organization; field recruitment and training schedule; recruitment of Province Census Office (PCO) staff; recruitment of District Census Office (DCO) staff; training and materials; preliminary field activities; listing and enumeration; field reporting system; pay system; transportation and communication; close out operations; quality control; and operational control. The review of manual editing and coding includes receipt and check in operations, organization and flow of work, population edits, housing edits, housing counts, quality control and operational control, and recruitment and training of personnel. The keying and computer procedures required to transform the data from the questionnaire into aggregated tabulations ready for publication are described. Volume 1(A) of Popstan will contain the final official counts of the number of inhabitants enumerated in the census. Volume 1(B) will contain statistics on population and housing characteristics for Popstan and regions, provinces, districts, metropolitan areas, villages, barrios, and all urban places.
Popstan: a case study for the 1980 censuses of population and housing. Part D. Phase II: census sample for Popstan
The 1st chapter of Part D of the case study summarizes the principal activities that are to be carried out in Phase 2 of the Popstan census. Phase 2 combines a coverage evaluation check with an inquiry to obtain detailed demographic, social, and economic characteristics of the population. The sample will consist of approximately 25,000 households in 1200 to 1300 clusters spread throughout the country. The sample will provide separate data for Popstan and each of the 4 regions, by urban rural residence, and the 2 metropolitan areas. Another chapter purpose is to bring together the operational and quality control procedures that must be carried out. Subsequent chapters review the following: sample design (purpose of Phase 2, allocation of the sample by domains, design considerations, assignment of sectors to EAs, sampling fractions, selection of EAs, selecting sectors within sample EAs, controls, and maps for Phase 2 enumeration); questionnaires and concepts (questionnaires and related forms, population to be included in sample, personal characteristics, migration, language, education, fertility and mortality, economic characteristics, and coverage evaluation questions); table formats; data collection (organization, recruitment and training of field staff, quick count operation, preliminary enumeration activities, listing and enumeration, quality control, operational control, and close out operations); manual editing and coding; matching (summary of matching procedure, steps in matching, rules and guidelines for initial matching, initial matching tolerances, relaxing matching rules, some matching problems, final matching rules, transcription of Phase 1 characteristics, quality control, and operational control); data keying and computer processing; estimation (socioeconomic data, coverage evaluation, sampling error, estimation of variances, and preparing a table of sampling errors); detailed characteristics (contents of volume 2, front pages, summary of findings, definitions and explanations, detailed tables, controls, distribution of reports, and availability of unpublished data and tapes); and coverage evaluation and special reports. Phase 2 obtains more detailed characteristics of the population than did Phase 1. Enumerators will interview every household in the sample segment and obtain information for every person who is a usual resident or who has no residence elsewhere. Phase 2 also measures the completeness of the Phase 1 enumeration.
[Selected elements of family policy in Poland]
Family policy is understood by the author as the totality of juridic norms, activities, and means employed by the government in order to create the proper conditions to meet the needs of the family; i.e., of its foundation, development, and proper functioning aimed at fulfilling all of its socially important functions. In light of this definition, the scope and goals of family policy, subjects of family policy, and the means to implement it are discussed. Family policy in Poland between 1944-82 is discussed in stages with emphasis on the characteristic features of its development. The stages focused on are 1945-55, 1956-70, 1971-80 and 1981-present. Needs of the family in particular phases of its development are described as the means of meeting them by the family itself and by governmental family policy. The main changes within the family in Poland, assessment of the needs of families, problems of egalitarization of family living conditions, principles of applying the social minimum, and the interpretation of the notion of a social guarantee of the government vis-a-vis the family and its needs are also mentioned. (author's modified) (summary in ENG)
The family building process in Java. Birth interval analysis of data from the Indonesia Fertility Survey 1976
The family planning program in Java and Bali was introduced in 1970 and the National Family Planning Coordination board now claims that the program is a success in terms of numbers of new acceptors of a modern method of contraception. The 1980 census showed that Java's population had risen to over 90 million with a growth rate of 2%/year during 1971-80, which is higher than the rate for 1961-70 of 1.9%. This unexpected high growth rate has been explained as the result of a much smaller fertility decline than was thought; it is conceivable that the effect of the program up to this point was limited to the pattern of birth spacing, but not in limiting family size. This study portrays Javanese fertility behavior as reflected in birth intervals while taking into account social, economic, and other relevant characteristics of the population. The Indonesian Fertility Survey covered 9155 ever-married women. The people were placed in the following categories: richer farmers, poorer farmers, landless farmhands, rural service workers, manual laborers, and artisans, professional, and administrative workers, as well as urban sales and service workers. Some results of this analysis are: 1) the interval between births of parity 2-5 is about 29 months while that between child 5-6 is longer; the parity progression ratio is .92 for children of parity 2, 3, and 4, and decreases to .87 for children of parity 6; 2) spacing results from pure physiological factors such as postpartum amenorrhea, involuntary temporary sterility, decline of general fecundability, spontaneous abortion, and behaviorally-determined factors such as temporary abstinence, use of contraceptives, breastfeeding, induced abortion, and postpartum taboo on sexual intercourse; 3) breastfeeding contraceptive practice, and/or abstinence are important determinants of longer interval time; 4) excluding cohorts 40-44 there is gradual lengthening of intervals 2-4 through time, indicating an increase in the spacing of births; 5) the duration of birth interval from 1st exposure to childbearing up to the birth of the 1st child in Java and Bali is as small as health conditions permit and that deliberate spacing of the 1st birth is uncommon; 6) the proportion of women reaching high parities in Java is smaller than in Bali and amongst Javanese it is smaller in rural than in urban areas, but the high proportion of women among the richer farmers reaching high parities coincides with low proportions of women terminating childbearing at all parities below 6; and 7) the proportion reaching parity 6 among professional and administrative workers is higher than in rural areas. It is suggested that more attention be given to the economic aspects of the couples' environment in future surveys.
Migration, family context and labour-force participation in Mexico City.
Internal migration can have a great impact on expansion of the urban labor supply and the reproduction of sectors of manual wage earners. This paper, based on interviews with 2401 male-headed households in Mexico City, analyzes the influence of the family context on the labor force participation of rural migrants. A central finding was the migratory heterogeneity of the households surveyed. In 38.8% of households, the head and wife were migrants but the children were natives. Specific questions investigated included the degree to which the wage of the head of the household affects labor force participation strategies, the role played by women in this process, and the significance of the domestic division of labor for the reproduction of the working class. In 48% of the households headed by a manual worker, other family members in addition to the head also participated in the labor force. Participation was found to depend upon the income level of the household head, the kinship composition of the family unit, and the life-cycle of the household. Female participation in the labor force was greater in families where the head's income was low. However, when the head of household earned more than the minimum wage, the wife tended to devote herself to unpaid domestic labor and other family members engaged in economic activity. Sociodemographic characteristics of the family unit also played a role. Female labor force participation was more likely for nuclear and extended families in advanced stages of the life cycle. This type of household structure is more prevalent among migrant than native families, partially explaining the higher rates of female participation among the latter. Migrant women from households where the head's income is at subsistence level tend to perform manual activities in the service sector, while native women from the same family context are more often in the manufacturing sector and sometimes in commerce or administration, thereby broadening the industrial proletariat. These results demonstrate the importance of rethinking the concept of labor force supply in terms of groups of individuals organized into families instead of as aggregates of isolated individuals. The family can be conceptualized as a mediating structure between labor demand at the level of economic structure and the participation of the individual in the labor market.
Concepts and models of a quantitative sociology: the dynamics of interacting populations
This book develops a framework for the quantitative description of the dynamics of a wide class of sociological phenomena. The authors consider the interpretation and limitations to be imposed on the quantification of sociological processes. The opinion formation model is used; this is an example of quantitative sociology. The model of migration and birth-death processes for interacting populations contains the following factors: 1) the migration of humans is considered to be nonlinear and nondiffusional and 2) the problem of the extinction of small populations of animals and the effect of this, including multi-step processes in the fully stochastic model are investigated. Also discussed is the nonequilibrium theory of investment in which the population is not a large group of people having political opinions but a small group of entrepreneurs in a postion to make investment decisions. The Schumpeter Clock model stresses the existent, explicitly acute pushing microeconomic forces and powerful supply side checks and balances in explaining the short-term nonequilibrium motions of an economy, whereas other model designs primarily take into account the less definite macroeconomic forces and weak demand side checks and balances. This model operationalizes microeconomic differences, the creation of which is the objective of the strategic investments of entrepreneurs. Also discussed is the interaction of competitive macrosocieties. It is concluded that the dynamics of sociological systems typically obey nonlinear equations of motion.
Population growth, employment and economic-demographic interactions in Kenya: Bachue-Kenya
An analysis of the relationships between demographic and economic factors in Kenya is presented. The analysis is based on the frequent use of household-level data. It also takes into account the direct and indirect effects of changes, be they the results of government policy decisions or unexpected exogenous shifts. The analysis is performed using the Bachue simulation model developed at the International Labour Office. Separate consideration is first given to the determinants of fertility, of mortality, of migration, and of income transfers in Kenya. The determinants of female labor force participation and of agricultural productivity are also examined. The authors then provide a technical description of the Bachue-Kenya model and of the various social, economic, and demographic variables it includes. In the next section, various simulations using the Bachue-Kenya model and involving demographic policy, economic policy, labor market policy, and income distribution are described. The results suggest that declines in fertility will lead to rises in average income but are unlikely to have a significant effect on the unemployment problem.
Management perspective: recommendations and overview papers, 1982 ICOMP international conference
This book is a review of progress of management improvements of population and family planning programs and also an assessment of the roles and activities of the International Committee on the Management of Population Programmes (ICOMP), which was established in 1973. It was agreed at this conference that quality of management is a significant variable in the performance of any program and that external support for management from donor agencies and management institutes has started to decline at a time when program leaders have started to take the initiative in this area. Some recommendations made were: 1) each program should evolve a management development plan based on systematic management assessments; 2) serious consideration should be given to development of local and custom-made management training programs through emphasis on appropriateness; 3) ICOMP should widen its scope to management of population related health care activities; 4) ICOMP should decentralize its activities; 5) ICOMP should co-opt more institutions having requisite expertise in management; 6) ICOMP should convene a joint meeting of donor agencies and program managers to review various questions relating to the need for external assistance; 7) ICOMP can assist programs facing declining external assistance by developing estimates of financial resources needed over the longterm, create an environment for additional allocation of resources from international agencies and national governments by organizing a meeting of donor agencies and program managers, and help develop more effective financial management systems; 8) ICOMP should develop and disseminate studies on community participation; 9) ICOMP should encourage management and related institutions to undertake research, training, and consulting in community participation; 10) ICOMP should help in developing strategies for training of supervisors and field workers in integrated programs; 11) ICOMP should encourage longterm planning through the documentation of successful experience, and should test methodologies of evaluation, supervision, and human resources development; 12) ICOMP should help country programs conduct management assessments and management training; and 13) should attain a certain degree of financial stability by assessing annual contributions from its members. Papers were presented in ICOMP projects in Bangladesh, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tunisia, and Turkey.
Sex and society in Islam: birth control before the nineteenth century
This monograph presents evidence from Medieval Arabic jurisprudence, medical texts, erotica, and literature which establishes that contraception was widely used in premodern Middle Eastern populations. Contraception was sanctioned by Islamic religious law from the 1st Islamic century, and there was general knowledge, discussion, and dissemination of effective birth control techniques through a variety of media. Arguments advanced for birth control practice included the economic hardships of a large number of dependents, avoidance of fathering children who would be slaves, protection of young or sickly women from the dangers of childbirth, the need to safeguard property, and the importance of guaranteeing the education of existing children. Coitus interruptus and precoital intravaginal suppositories and tampons were the most widely used birth control methods. Abortion was generally tolerated if it took place before ensoulment. Recognition of the personal, social, economic, and medical indications for contraception was made possible by the religious sanction of birth control and the open attitudes toward sexuality. The evidence contained in the various categories of literature from Medieval Arabic society refutes the belief that birth control is strictly an aspect of modernity.
The political economy of demographic change: causes and implications of population trends in Great Britain
The causes and implications of demographic trends in industrialized countries during the twentieth century are examined, with the primary focus on the situation in the United Kingdom. Topics covered include changes in age at marriage, the trend toward cohabitation, patterns of family formation and their effects on fertility, household formation, trends in divorce and in mortality, and internal migration. The interrelationships between these demographic trends and labor and housing market developments are discussed. Consideration is also given to problems of dependency and income support, to the effect of fertility waves on education, and to the effect of demographic factors on the provision of health care and other social services. Emphasis is placed on the policy responses and policy implications of these processes.
Teaching natural family planning: a guide for fieldworkers.
This manual, written in both English and Hindi, has been pretested in a 3-year study in India and is a guide to field workers who instruct and teach couples to use cervical mucus to identify fertility by regular systematic house visits. The system of house visits and the instructional material is based on the power of retention and comprehension of illiterate poor women and the need for social support at crucial periods during the 3 phases of learning. To overcome the 1-month period of abstinence needed while the woman is learning the method, the method is taught in 2 phases in 2 months and social support is offered by systematic house visits. "Visits" can also refer to women who visit a center instead of having someone come to their home. Part 2 of the manual is devoted to teaching breastfeeding women who have not started menstruating how to use natural family planning to identify periods of fertility. The visit schedule is as follows: 1) visit 1, at any time in the cycle; 2) visit 2, around the date of menstruation; 3) visit 3, 1 week later before or during the infertile mucus state; 4) visit 4, 1 week later before or during fertile mucus stage; 5) visit 5, around the date of menstruation; 6) visit 6, 1 week later before or during infertile mucus stage; 7) visit 7, around the date of menstruation; 8) visit 8, 1 week later before or during infertile mucus stage; and 9) visit 9, around the date of menstruation. The aims of each visit are described and color illustrations are included.
Population distribution and development strategies in Peninsular Malaysia
In Malaysia there are 2 dominant population movements, rural-directed migration into Pahang state and urban/industrial oriented movement into Selangor. Migrants in Malaysia have been characterized as relatively young, single, and educated. Under the New Economic Policy, regional land development schemes have been largely successful in helping to assist migrants themselves and in establishing rural populations, especially in areas of traditional out-migration. Most development programs have not been successful in retaining potential migrants, mainly because of the absence of effective land reforms. The reasons for this lack of success also include the following: 1) the interrelationships between the economic, social, and spatial elements are complex and not easily anticipated in development plans; 2) demographic goals have not been explicitly stated; 3) the implementation of policies and programs is frequently erratic; 4) the involvement of a large number of implementation agencies generates conflict and competition for limited resources; and 5) due attention is not given to the monitoring and review of national developmnet plans.
Migration-related policies: a study of the Sri Lanka experience
The analysis of internal migration in Sri Lanka during the period 1946-53 shows a marked migration from the wet zone to the dry zone except in Jaffna, an outmigration destination located in the dry zone and Colombo, an inmigration destination located in the wet zone. A similar pattern was observed during the period 1953-63. While policies of land settlement encouraged mobility from the wet to the dry zone, policies of rural development, village expansion, and land reform encouraged migration to rural areas. As a result of these policies, the proportion of rural population to the total population of Sri Lanka changed very little during the period 1946-71. But the beneficial effects of land settlement have not been fully realized in the past due to underutilization of resources, the lack of adequate social welfare facilities in the colonized areas, and the deficiencies in the organization and management of the schemes. Also the reemergence of malaria has prevented people from drifting back to the wet zone. Population distribution through the period 1963-71 worsened in relation to previous years, partly because of the large influx of population into the Colombo district and to the southeast quadrant as a whole, indicating that industry by virtue of higher incomes, generates a stronger pull factor than land settlements. Unless efforts are made to integrate rural industry into land settlement and development schemes the retentive capacity of such schemes will be diminished. Another project that will influence internal migration is the setting up of the Greater Colombo Economic Commission to attract foreign investment through incentives such as tax holidays, duty-free imports of raw materials, and infrastructure facility improvements. This should create direct and indirect employment for many people.
Socio-economic development and rural-urban migration in Poland
The mass flow of the Polish population from rural to urban areas and to nonagricultural occupations constituted an integral part of the development strategy implemented in the post-war period. The new spatial mobility also accelerated the rate of economic growth and improved living standards. But this population shift from agriculture also created many problems such as adjusting agricultural development to the changing manpower situation. Little was done to adjust to migration flows the labor requirements in agriculture; for a long time employment policy was directed mainly at meeting the demands of the nonagricultural labor market and neglecting the needs of the agricultural sector. Policies directing migration from rural-urban areas was more effective than that influencing the outflow of people from agriculture. Another deficiency of migration planning in Poland was that it was often discussed under pressure of current circumstances without paying attention to longterm consequences and often being the result of over-reaction to an immediate situation. The most important policies have been those affecting the size and allocation of nonagricultural labor demand, housing, and infrastructure development, stability of private farming, and its equality with the socialized sector, the type and pace of modernization processes in agriculture, and inter-sectoral and inter-regional differentials in living standards. Also those direct migration policy instruments based on economic and social incentives proved more effective than the administrative regulations. It is concluded that the measures needed to accommodate the mutual adjustment between movement from agriculture and development of the whole agricultural economy will be more costly in the future because: 1) the new generations of farmers are not going to accept lower income levels than those in non-agricultural occupations, 2) the scope of mechanization will have to cover all the main branches of agricultural production, and 3) the level of rural infrastructure will have to be raised to that in urban areas.
The study of population: elements, patterns, processes
This textbook provides an introduction to the study of population and is intended primarily for intermediate-level college students in population geography. Topics covered include the description and analysis of the spatial distribution of population; the history and theory of population growth; examples of population growth; fertility; mortality; internal migration; population composition; the interrelationships among population, resources, and the environment; and population policies and programs. The geographic focus is on the United States, although some consideration is also given to other countries, major world regions, and the world as a whole.
Determinants of fertility in African and Asian countries: introductory overview
Focus in this year's seminar is on determinants of fertility in African and Asian nations. Since fertility is the main contributor to population growth, the focus comes as no surprise to anyone involved with development and human welfare. The situation is not stagnant throughout the developing world as far as fertility is concerned. In many of these countries fertility decline has begun and in several the decline has been sustained for fairly long periods. China is a notable case of a country which has managed to lower its birthrate to the upper teens. The decline in the birthrate of the developing countries as a whole started from a level above 40 in the 1st half of the decade of the 1960s and reached a level estimated by the UN to be 32. Yet, the developing countries are far from homogeneous in this regard, and the decline was largely brought about by declines in East Asia and Latin America. Generally, no significant decline is yet apparent in Africa and most of South Asia. Other than China, spectacular fertility declines in some countries of Asia have occurred, e.g., Hong Kong and Singapore which have cut their birthrates in half in about 15 years. Latin America has better documented fertility levels, and these clearly show that demographic transition has been underway for some time in most of this area. In sub-Saharan Africa birthrates of 45 and above still prevail, particularly in Western and Eastern Africa. Some Central African countries show lower levels which are thought to be due to health and nutrition factors rather than to deliberate fertility control. In Egypt, according to registration data, the birthrate declined consitently since 1964 until it reached 34 in 1972 and then started an upward trend to above 40 in 1980. Several factors are considered responsible for the current high levels of fertility generally found in developing countries. 1 factor universally mentioned is the high value placed on having many children in order to ensure support for the family and security in old age, in conditions of high infant and child mortality. Fertility has been limited to a certain extent in the developing world by such practices as prolonged lactation, marital taboos, and the high value placed on premarital virginity. Nuclear families reduce their family size as a result of changes in social structure brought about by urbanization and industrialization. In recent years efforts have been made to develop an economic theory of the effect of income on fertility, concentrating on the family decision making aspects. The majority would emphasize that high fertility is a major problem facing society today. High fertility levels exacerbate underdevelopment and make the prospect for development and enhancing the quality of human life more remote. Government attitudes toward fertility levels and trends vary with their own demographic, political, and cultural circumstances.
Policy implications of the phenomenon of rising fertility in response to modernization
It is hypothesized that in many countries, and particularly in Africa South of the Sahara and in the Muslim countries, fertility will first increase before eventually declining. The stimulating influence of modernization on fertility will be temporary and, eventually, it should have a moderating effect. Although the dissemination of education, improvement in health, and an increase in marriage aid should eventually lead to lower fertility, there is a long way to go before it occurs. The general situation cannot be improved satisfactorily until social and economic development is substantial, and this is unlikely to occur rapidly by present development approaches. In the short run, the gap in levels of fertility between developed and developing regions will widen. As only a modest increase can be expected to occur in the developed countries, any convergence of levels must necessarily come about because of declines in the developing countries. The question is what can be expected in this regard. If one takes Africa, the fastest growing continent, despite the great cultural, geographical, ethnic, and political heterogeneity of the continent, fertility levels, though variable, are still very high almost everywhere. In many of the largest countries of the 3rd world, with the exception of China, the fertility decline is yet to occur. Children signal the strength of the family and represent an economic advantage from which parents can reap benefits at a very early age and in old age. High fertility still reflects these advantages. The impressive decreases of birthrates in some countries, the relative stability in others, and a rise in still others, reinforces the differences among countries in fertility levels. The dispersion of birthrates in the developing world provides evidence of the differences in the paths and tempos of the demographic transition. The literature reveals that, depending on the country and the culture, fertility may be expected to rise in response to many pro-fertility influences. Among such influences or factors are: modification in the duration and incidence of breastfeeding; changes in ritual postpartum abstinence; decline in the prevalence of polygamy; improvements in health and nutrition; increasing marital stability; and advancements in marriage age. Not all of these factors are at play simultaneously in the same country, but more and more there can be observed changes in traditions in response to structural alterations of the societies. The effect of this, at least in the short run, is higher fertility, before women learn how to control fertility by other means.
Causal interpretation of observed fertility change
The causal interpretation of observed fertility change is based on observations regarding fertility change. Orderly thinking requires that causal interpretations be developed at 3 levels: specifying the fertility change that is to be explained; identifying the intermediate processes that are producing change; and investigating the social processes that could account for both levels 1 and 2. The dependent variable is fertility. The choice of which fertility concept to use is crucial in causal interpretation. In Egyptian studies the crude birthrate is often selected, but it is argued here that this choice confuses causal interpretation. A different strategy is recommended. It is to estimate total fertility rates near the dates of censuses. Both census material and registration data may be used together to create robust estimates of the dependent variable. Some between census analysis may continue to be possible, but the main effort should be concentrated on causal interpretration of changes from near one census date to the nest. Adopting this strategy, the observed fertility change in Egypt to interpret is the change from a "pre-decline" level of around 6.5 children/woman to 5.5 by 1975-76. The causal interpretation should focus on national trends and be enrichred by attention to differentials. In Egypt the national fertility decline appears to be due to a greater extent than in the Turkish example presented to the marriage factor. An increase of non-marriage during the fecundable ages accounted for slightly more than half the fertility decline up to 1978. Turkish data are richer in terms of intermediate variables, but Egypt is learning to include the intermediate variables in their studies. Family planning programs, like all social and economic institutions, must operate on fertility through the intermediate variables. The Turkish program is of the classic type, aimed at contraceptive services and information and was begun in 1965. At most the Turkish national family planning program made a small contribution to fertility reduction. By discussing family planning programs, focus has been on 1 type of social change located within the 3rd level of analysis. Country by country, social change will differ and so much imagination and critical examination of the theories that result is in order. A causal interpretation of the fertility decline in Turkey must reach into the economic and social transformation of the country that induced families to relocate in cities and turned many villages into cities. It must address the changes in determinants of fertility that life in the cities imposed on families from generation to generation. When analyzed, the Egyptian story will have its own unique features. Concentration on major changes will advance knowledge of the causal process of fertility change.
Differential age at marriage and fertility in Egypt
This study investigated the effects of age at marriage on fertility in 5 sociospatial environments in Egypt. For the cohort 30-34 years of age, the difference in average parity between women who married below age 16 years compared with those who married at 19-21 years was 2 live births in rural areas, 1.6 births in urban villages, 3 births in industrial workers residences, 2.1 births in semi-urban cities, and 1.3 births in urban cities. The average number of births of the same cohort was lower with higher age at marriage in all 5 environments studied. The differences were not as great when duration of marriage was contolled, however. It was also noted that women who marry at a later age tend to have children more frequently in the early years of marriage. The difference in reproductive behavior may relfect the indirect effects of late age at marriage on fertility. Late marriage may provide opportunities for women to acquire higher education and skills, more equality in marriage, and more awareness of the benefits of small families. The study also examined differential trends in age at marriage. 36% of women in rural areas versus 18% of women in urban cities married below the legal age of 16 years; less than 10% of the former group versus 23% of the latter group married above the age of 20 years. The proportion of women never marrying decreased with increasing age of the cohort, but increased as the macro-environment became more urban. Increases in the degree of urbanization were also associated with substantial increases in the mean age at marriage, with a 4.7 differential in this statistic between the rural areas and urban cities. Urban villages are experiencing the greatest rate of increase in age at marriage, underlining the effects of processes of change and modernization. The results of this study suggest that social and economic changes occurring within the macro-environment can have an important effect on promoting delayed marriage.
Review of selected research findings on the interrelationships of population and development parameters
Focus is on a few issues related to the recent challenge of a basic premise, namely that modernization is a fundamental condition for fertility reduction. The premise is challenged by recent studies of demographic trends in some developing countries experiencing modernization in varying degrees during recent decades. In some of these countries birthrates have not been reduced or have been increasing despite their development and family planning efforts during the early stages of modernization. Egypt is cited by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) as a glaring example of such "anomalies." Birthrates rose from 36/1000 in 1972 to 40/1000 in 1980 despite a family planning program that had been operational for 15 years and the attainment of development landmarks during the last decade. K.C. Zachariah provides an explanation of the Egyptian situation by analyzing the 1960 census, the national fertility survey of 1974-75, available statistics of the 1976 census, and other statistical series and sources. According to Zachariah, the main determinants of the recent trend in the crude birthrate have been changes in age composition, in the age of women at 1st marriage, and, to some extent, in marital fertility. Zachariah concludes that the absence of a significant decline in marital fertility at the national level does not imply that the Egyptian family planning program was not partly successful. The Egyptian population is heterogenous with regard to the stage of development in fertility transition, and the population in Cairo and Alexandria has gone much further in its fertility transition than the population in the other governorates, particularly those in Upper Egypt. Other literature sheds new light on several of the variables included under each of the different processes comprising "modernization." It demonstrates how modernization can simultaneously have fertility increasing effects as well as fertility decreasing effects among different population groups and challenges several established hypotheses about the process of "modernization" per se. Some of the accumulated research findings are highlighted.
Fertility levels in Egypt in 1960 and 1976: some factors influencing the change
This paper analyzes changes in the level of fertility in Egypt between 1960 and 1976. Data are taken from censuses and the vital registration system. Over this period, the crude birth rate declined 11.7% from 43.1 in 1960 to 38.1 in 1976. Marital fertility declined among women ages 25-40 years, the mean age at marriage increased from 21.09 years to 22.04 years, and the proportion of ever-married women in the childbearing age range declined from 81.1% to 70.4%. 2 methods were used to disaggregate the total change in crude birth rate into the effects of individual components. The Cho-Retherford method considers the effects of 3 components: age structure, proportion of married females, and marital fertility. The relative contributions of these factors to the total change in crude birth rate in 1960-75 were -2.2%, 83.7%, and 18.5%, respectively. The greatest contribution to the change came from women ages 30-34 years. The standardization method apportions change in the crude birth rate into 4 components: proportion of women in the reproductive age group, age distribution of women within the reproductive age span, proportion of married women, and marital fertility. These factors accounted for 1.2%, 2.3%, 80%, and 16.4%, respectively, of the change observed. In spite of slight differences, both methods of disaggregation provided similar estimates of the effects of components on the crude birth rate, with changes in marital status distribution having the greatest effect. Although it is recognized that social and economic variables also influence fertility, the demographic variables analyzed in this study are regarded as proxies for broader social phenomena.
Trends and factors accounting for fertility changes in Korea
Korea's crude birth rate fell from 42.1 in 1960 to 22.8 in 1975, representing a 45.8% decline. This study, based on census data, delineates the trends in Korea's fertility level, examines the intermediate factors accounting for changes in fertility, and evaluates the role of family planning efforts in enhancing fertility declines. Since 1960, the age-specific fertility rate has declined in each age group but has become more concentrated in the 20-34 age span. Rural fertility has fallen more rapidly than urban fertility, and the rates were almost equal in 1975 for the 25-29 year age group. The fertility level of employed women is lower than that of unemployed women in the age groups below 30 years and higher above this age. There is an inverse relationship between fertility and education. The mean number of children/ever-married woman decreased from 3.7 in 1970 to 3.4 in 1975. The sharp, continuous decline in overall fertility since 1960 (48%) is largely due to the decline in marital fertility (39%), especially among older women. The proportion of married women has decreased significantly due to the rising age at 1st marriage. More effective use of contraception has also led to a reduction in the number of women progressing to higher parities. Family planning efforts, including abortion, are estimated to have accounted for 70% of the fertility decline in 1975. Social change, changing marital patterns, and improved child health lowered fertility by 23%. Of concern, however, are changes in the timing of fertility among women under age 30 years which can affect both cohort and fertility rates. There has been a decrease in the interval between marriage and 1st 2 parities among women in this age group.
Role of child mortality in fertility differentials: evidences from an intervention program
In assessing the influence of reduced child mortality on subsequent fertility, the changes in other factors need to be controlled. Field experimentation is the best way since it offers a realistic setting for the changes, if any, to occur. The intervention strategy involves providing child health services to reduce infant and child mortality. The intervention could be a selective intervention in which only those groups which initially exhibit high child mortality are considered for the provision of program inputs. Alternatively a total intervention program could be initiated in which all groups in the population are considered equally eligible to receive program inputs. Among several drawbacks of selective intervention strategies, 2 are relevant in this context: the low mortality groups are usually those belonging to the upper socioeconomic strata and are also those who have more influence and power to get the scarce public resources for themselves and the high mortality groups cannot normally compete with them; and ethical, political, and other considerations do not normally permit denial of a welfare service such as health to some members of the population. This study was conducted between 1970-74 in a rural area in North India. All households were covered by surveys and services. For about 4 years services were provided to the people in the study area and included both health and family planning. The intervention purpose was to reduce infant and child mortality so that reduction in fertility, if any, could be observed. The causal variable chosen to depict child mortality was health service utilization and the response variable chosen to depict fertility was practice of family planning. The general pattern was that higher caste, higher educational level, higher occupation, and high family size groups exhibited greater rates of contraceptive use. The differentials in contraceptive use during the program were less significant than the preprogram differentials. With the program intervention, the differentials in family planning practice which existed before the intervention started disappearing. The health services were utilized by all types of women almost equally. Services other than curative were utilized by all socioeconomic groups equally except that the low caste women used significantly more than high caste women. There were consistently higher family planning practice rates among users of health services than among nonusers. With the exception of the women's curative care, acceptance rates among service users were about 3 times the rates for nonusers. To the extent that family planning acceptance levels are indicative of a potential fertility decline, efforts to improve child health seem to improve child survival and to lead to inhibition of fertility.
Adjustment of fertility estimates for age reporting errors
The question arises as to how seriously fertility measures are affected by the transfer of women and their births due to age misreporting. Van de Walle demonstrated by simulating examples that the level and pattern of age specific fertility rates (ASFR) as well as the cumulated fertility such as total fertility such as total fertility rate (TFR) or even average parity get altered substantially if in a lot of cases the ages are misreported under any of the following 3 assumptions on the fertility of the transferred women: average fertility of the transferred women is 50% of the average fertility of the age group from where they come; average fertility of the transferred women is the same as that of the original group; and average fertility of the transferred women is 125% of that of the original group. The level and nature of distortion in the ASFR, TFR, or children ever born (CEB) naturally depend on the type and strength of bias, if any, in the age misreporting. If there is a strong tendency to push up the women in the age scale because they are not very fertile or they have already achieved high parities or vice versa, then should the average fertility be overestimated or underestimated substantially? The examples considered by Van de Walle showed that the TFR was biased downward under each of the 3 assumptions about the average fertility of the transferred women. It is not enough to know that there is an over- or underestimation of fertility for an analyst who is interested in adjustment of the estimates or reestimation. This discussion proposes a simple technique to reestimate the age specific fertility rates (and TFR) from the reported rates which are suspected to have been distorted or altered by age misreporting. The basic data required are the set of the reported rates. The extra materials needed are a set of plausible estimates of the actual members of women at ages and of those shifted from age to age and a valid assumption about the bias causing the age misreporting. After describing the technique, application is illustrated by example under a set of assumptions, but the procedure is general and can be applied under assumptions not considered in the examples provided. The success of the technique depends on the success of estimating the actual age distribution which is often done by graduation formulae without the consideration of the nature and magnitude of age reporting biases. A good knowledge of the sociocultural instincts acting on age reporting of the women concerned is necessary for making valid assumptions.
Age pattern of childlessness and probability of first live birth
An effort is made to make use of the childlessness data of some Asian and Pacific countries to describe some reproductive characteristics of female population. A mathematical model was used to estimate the probability of 1st live birth, mean age at 1st birth, and the waiting time for 1st live birth. The data source was the country fertility reports of the World Fertility Survey (WFS) conducted during the 1970s for the countries of Bangladesh, Fiji, Indonesia, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. A woman is considered childless if she had not borne a liveborn child until the time of the survey. The percent ever married women under "zero parity" represents, therefore, percent childless at different ages. The estimation of parameters was solely based on a postulated model fitted to the data on proportion childless among the ever married women at different ages. The model described the age pattern of childlessness adequately for the selected countries. The various parameters estimated from the childless data allowed a ranking of the countries in terms of their fertility levels. Bangladesh had the highest level of fertility, followed by Jordan and Nepal. Among the low fertility countries, Sri Lanka is estimated to have the lowest level. This finding appears to compare well with the available estimates of fertility for these countries. The literature does not seem to offer any estimation of fertility from childlessness data. This model seems to provide a reasonable set of estimates of a number of reproductive parameters and has the advantage of using data which are commonly available. Extension of this model for estimation of fecundability is in process.
On estimating recent fertility trends in Nepal
The 1961 and 1971 Censuses and the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey (NFS) have provided the average number of children ever born by age of women. This paper attempts to examine the available data and to apply the available indirect techniques to reestimate the fertility levels and patterns in Nepal. The estimates of fertility rates obtained from various sources and techniques were compared and the trends in the fertility levels and patterns, if any, were examined. 3 techniques were applied on the available data and then the estimates were compared: Coale and Demeny approach; relational Gompertz model; and Brass' P/F ratio method. The total fertility estimated by the Coale and Demeny approach were 4.52 for the 1961 census, 4.44 for the 1971 census, and 5.58 for the 1976 NFS. The estimates for 1961 and 1971 were very low compared to the 1976 level, indicating that the number of children ever born reported even by the younger women in the censuses were inaccurate. The estimates of the total fertility rate (TFR) of 5.85 for 1976 itself was a low against a TFR of 6.33 based on reported births. The estimate of TFR for 1961 by the Gompertz model was 4.5 approximately the same as estimated by the Coale and Demeny approach and so none of these represents the fertility level of 1961. For 1971, TFR of 3.95 estimated by the model was very low compared with the estimates of 5.7 obtained by use of the Brass P/F ratio method. Thus, it cannot be accepted to represent the level of fertility in 1971. The age pattern of fertility followed a unique pattern in both sets of estimates by Gompertz and Brass for 1971; the fertility peak was in the 25-29 age group. The fertility level estimated for 1961 (Gompertz) and 1971 (Brass) were quite close to the national estimates (after adjustment) as reflected by the crude birthrate (CBR). The age pattern of fertility shows that the peak is rising over the years. The age pattern of fertility indicates a steep rise in all the cases in the early periods of the reproductive ages as expected, and the levels remain high for ages up to about 32 and decline thereafter. The proportion of the currently married women for age groups 15-19 and 20-24 were 72.75% and 92.61% for 1961, 60.17 and 91.13 for 1971, and 61.5 and 92.6 for 1976. The analysis makes it clear that the available indirect techniques when applied to the reports of children ever born or births last year were inadequate to determine the existence of a trend, let alone measure it.
Labour migration in the Middle East and North Africa and its economic implications
"This paper has two major objectives. First, it attempts to assemble a synopsis of the available data on the magnitude, origin, destination, and characteristics of recent labour flows in the [Middle East and Northern Africa] region to provide a framework for further research. Second, it discusses the impact of recent labour flows on the economic growth prospects of the sending countries, in order to shed some light on the likely costs and benefits of a labour export programme." (EXCERPT)
Contemporary international migration and human resources development in the Arab region: background and policy issues
"This paper contains a brief summary of the nature and extent of international migration in the Arab region and enumerates problems this migration has caused in the field of human resources development. The paper argues that these problems and the development of the region's human resources are best tackled from a regional perspective....[Data are from] the work of the International Migration Project, which was commissioned by the International Labour Office in April 1977. The project, which lasted 2 years, was a study of contemporary patterns and processes of labour movement in the Arab region." (EXCERPT)
Urbanization in the Middle East in world perspective
"The purpose of this paper is to make a general review of urban growth and development [in the Middle East] in various ages, to analyze the pattern of regional disparities in levels of urbanization, and, subsequently, to study the development of million-cities [cities of one million or more inhabitants] in various parts of the world." It is noted that "urbanization has become one of the most prominent characteristics of population distribution in the twentieth century, and the problems and complexities of urban growth are counted among the most urgent problems in most countries of the world, involving housing, food, cultural and other service needs." (EXCERPT)
Contemporary urban growth and concentration in the Middle East
Recent trends in urban population growth and distribution in the Middle East are analyzed. The growth of large cities, the percentage of the population living in urban areas, and the components of city growth are examined for the individual countries of the region. Trends and determinants of modernization and urbanization are discussed. (ANNOTATION)
Variations and policy issues in mortality
Socioeconomic and psychological factors involved in controlling mortality are examined, with particular reference to countries in the ECWA (Economic Commission for Western Asia) region. The effects of medical care, improved nutrition, public health measures, and vaccinations against childhood diseases are considered. The relationship between mortality decline and the population growth rate is discussed, and the impact on the age structure of the population is noted. (ANNOTATION)
Factors related to mortality at the older ages: a cross-national analysis
Factors related to mortality over age 50 are analyzed using data, mainly for 1964, for females from 38 developed and developing countries. The extent to which mortality rates change at five-year intervals from age 50 to over 85 is investigated. It is found that there is much cross-national variation in the age-cause-specific mortality rate. It is suggested that international differences in social conditions, specifically economic distributional inequalities, contribute to variations in age-specific death rates and age-specific causes of death. (ANNOTATION)
Regional differences in infant mortality in Egypt
"This study [is] concerned with measuring...regional differences in infant mortality in Egypt, more specifically the differences between the two main regions, Lower and Upper Egypt, and within each region between the rural and urban areas of each governorate. Various estimates by type of residence (rural-urban) were obtained by applying Trussell's modified equations of the Brass technique, and the South Model Life Table." Results indicate that the lowest levels of infant mortality are found in the north coastal governorates, urban rates are generally lower than rural ones, and infant mortality rates follow the general development pattern. The influence of socioeconomic conditions on infant mortality is emphasized. (EXCERPT)
Towards an understanding of urban growth in Ethiopia
The urbanization process in Ethiopia is studied using data from a 1978 survey and other official statistical sources. It is hypothesized that both internal migration and natural increase are important factors in the growth of cities in developing countries. The analysis shows that "migration [is] the out-weighing component of urban growth in Ethiopia." In addition, it is suggested that "such migration [depleted] the rural areas [of] viable population and at the same time created serious problems of overcrowding of urban employment and housing facilities. Land reform and related measures in the rural areas, and housing and other steps undertaken in the urban areas have already begun to alleviate pertinent problems at both ends of the migration stream." (EXCERPT)
Levels and patterns of urbanization in Ethiopia, 1968-78
Trends in urbanization in Ethiopia are examined using data from national sample surveys conducted in 1968 and 1978. Emphasis is on changes in the extent and magnitude of urbanization, changes in income distribution and social mobility among urban areas, and changes in the degree of urban population concentration. It is found that "the upward mobility of towns from one size class category to the other was...considerably faster for those with less than 20,000 inhabitants. The major factor for such mobility and growth was internal migration....[An] uneven distribution of urban population of the country at all levels [is noted]." It is concluded that "the urbanization process differs among regions not only with respect to magnitude and tempo of change but also in its economic, social and cultural aspects as well as...locational importance." (EXCERPT)
Study of lifetime migration streams, Giza Governorate (1960-1976)
Lifetime migration streams in Giza Governorate, Egypt, from 1960 to 1976 are analyzed using data from the 1960 and 1976 censuses. It is found that the "decrease in the annual rate of population growth in Cairo in the last intercensal period may be due to the diversion of in-migrants away from Cairo and towards Giza governorate....[and] that Giza is a receiving governorate of migration from all other governorates." Other findings indicate that the rate of lifetime in-migration to urban areas of Giza is very high, with migrants representing 38 percent of the urban population; the probability of urban-urban lifetime migration in Giza is greater than that of rural-urban lifetime migration; the largest number of out-migrants from urban and rural areas of Giza move to urban governorates; and there is a net gain of lifetime migration from all governorates to urban areas of Giza. (EXCERPT)
Age patterns of marriage in a rural community of Bangladesh
Patterns of age at marriage in rural Bangladesh are examined. "The specific objectives of the study are: (i) to examine the ages at marriage of males and females and the prevalence of marriage, (ii) to estimate the first marriage frequencies and risks of first marriage by age and sex [and] (iii) to investigate the average number of years a person would live in single state prior to marriage or death." Data are from a March 1979 survey of 2,104 males and 1,935 females in Rajshahi district. It is found that marriage is a universal phenomenon in the community studied, with early marriage prevailing. The likelihood of marriage decreases sharply once the peak marriage age has been attained. (EXCERPT)
Trends and patterns of migration in Pakistan
Data on place of birth are used to "examine trends and patterns of life time migration, particularly internal migration, in Pakistan during the period 1961 to 1973." The data are from the 1951 and 1961 censuses and the 1973 Housing, Economic and Demographic Survey. "A brief historical perspective of migration in Pakistan is covered in Section II. This is followed by a discussion of overall national and provincial patterns of immigration and internal migration in Section III. A detailed analysis of internal migration including migration rates, and streams of inter-provincial movement is covered in Section IV." (EXCERPT)
Age pattern of menarche in rural populations of the north Indian state of Punjab
Patterns of age at menarche among rural populations in Punjab, India, are studied. Data are from two retrospective studies conducted in 1969-1970 and 1971-1972 among 3,543 married women from 24 villages. Findings indicate that socioeconomic differentials do not affect age at menarche, the average age at menarche is 14 years, and there has been no significant change in mean age at menarche over the past three or four decades. (ANNOTATION)
Some aspects of mortality in Jilin and Sichuan provinces of China
Mortality trends in Jilin and Sichuan provinces, northeastern China, are investigated using data on changes in age distribution and deaths by age for both sexes. The data are for 1964 and 1975-1981 and are taken from various sources, including household registration records, death certificates collected by local health departments, and a 1981 fertility survey. Consideration is given to the under-registration of infant deaths, and life tables are constructed to compensate for incomplete registration. It is found that crude death rates are low for both areas and that the population has become relatively older in the period covered. It is suggested that mortality declines are a direct result of improved health conditions and that a decline in the birth rate is partly responsible for changes in age distribution.
Transferring health and family planning service innovations to the public sector: an experiment in organization development in Bangladesh.
The International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh has launched a field experiment in 2 rural thanas of Bangladesh to test the transferability of its successful health and family planning experiment in Matlab to the Ministry of Health and Population Control service system. The 1st family planning experiment began in 1975 and concentrated on the household distribution of contraceptives. It was further designed to provide a broad range of contraceptive and immunization services and oral rehydration therapy. Strong management control is vested in the non-medical, male supervisory staff. Maternal and child health services were later combined with the family planning project. This extension project has 2 components: an intervention strategy and a research strategy to assess the efficacy of the program. The analysis of the effects of this extension program is achieved through the longitudinal observation of households with a sample registration system. The proposed design follows an organization development strategy in which collaborative diagnostic research is used to foster institutional change. The original Matlab experiment posited that a significant proportion of clients desire to limit or space childbearing, but lack contraceptive services for doing so. The experiment demonstrated that there is a set of conditions under which a significant proportion of a rural Bangladeshi population will use contraception, and thereby reduce fertility. In transferring the programs to the supervision of the Ministry of Health, a number of modes were used: 1) use of a team appraoch, especially on household distribution; 2) train more community workers, especially females, and use teams of both males and females; 3) develop a Tertiary Health Center referral system, especially for sterilization; 4) enlarge training of present workers to include better preventive and MCH care; and 5) arrange monthly meetings of union-level workers at the field centers. No change in salary structure or administrative structure was planned.
Advantages and disadvantages of continuous registration systems for national, subnational and differential mortality analysis.
To provide a proper perspective to the problem of mortality analysis, a historical background relating to the development of mortality statistics is first given; it is followed by brief discussions of the death registration process and the uses of both individual records and statistics derived from the death certificate. Then the advantages and disadvantages of the continuous registration system for the production of national mortality statistics are presented. Over the years, mortality statistics derived from the civil registration process have been used extensively for the delineation of public health problems and for various analytical studies for health and demographic purposes. In addition, the individual death record has been useful in identifying infective foci of disease as well as in the epidemiological studies of chronic diseases. Examples of various analytical uses of mortality statistics are also given. The most important feature of registration statistics is that they can provide detailed all-purpose reference tables annually, for various segments of the population, which can be tapped for specific studies. For public purposes, a most valuable datum relates to causes of death. The continuous registration system offers data possibilities that cannot be attained in any other way. On the other hand, death statistics for developing countries are frequently of limited usefulness because of incompleteness and quality. Gathering official death statistics in these countries is a difficult task requiring time and effort. Some suggestions are made on steps that might be taken to develop and improve national death registration systems.
Recommendations on statistics of international migration.
This document contains the most recent UN recommendations on international migration statistics, which were adopted by the UN Statistical Commission in 1976. The new recommendations were developed on the basis of earlier comments by the Statistical Commission and at other conferences, and of results of a study of national practices regarding international migration statistics conducted by the Statistical Office of the UN Secretariat. The revised recommendations take into account changes in patterns of international migration and conceptual and methodological developments since the earlier guidelines were issued. An introductory chapter discusses the need for international migration statistics and the experiences in using earlier UN recommendations. The next 4 chapters consider the definition of categories of international migrants and of the immigrant stock; the available sources of data on migrants and on the immigrant stock; the characteristics of migrants and the immigrant stock; and the recommended tabulations of the migrant flow and migrant stock for publication. Each of the 4 chapters discusses the factors taken into account in arriving at the recommendations and present the recommendations themselves. The chapter on recommended tabulations provides specifications and illustrations for each tabulation. The final chapter discusses the uses of the recommended tabulations in various categories, including, for migrant flow tabulations, longterm immigrants and emigrants, short-term immigrants and emigrants, short-term emigrants returning and migrants departing, and nomads entering and departing; and for migrant stock tabulations, demographic and social characteristics and economic, educational, and fertility characteristics. An annex presents definitions and specifications of selected characteristics of migrants and immigrant stock extracted from new draft population and housing census recommendations.
Contrived stagnation, migration and the state in Guyana.
This discussion of contrived stagnation and migration in Guyana discusses the following: emancipation of Guyana and the aftermath, 1800-64 (access to the land, indentured labor); the transition to "free" labor, 1864-1917; and contrived stagnation and state policy in the 20th century, 1917-77 (the structure of rural production, impediments to crop diversification and rural accumulation, the role of rent and usury, the function of paternalism, and the role of the state--the structure of local government, government fiscal/monetary policy, land settlement schemes, and cooperatives). Until almost the end of the 19th century, plantocracy and colonial authorities were determined to restrict migration. Thenceforth, governments have tried to redirect the migration that was occurring. Their efforts offset to some extent the underlying pattern of rural emigration. Because of this it is difficult to estimate the extent or changing levels of migration, for the limited data available only indicate net movements. Yet, certain features emerge clearly. The most marked is the racial or ethnic problem. The geographical and sectoral distributions of the various races are such that a clear racial division of labor emerges. Following emancipation, the ex-slaves moved away from the estates to form "African villages" and in some instances to become artisans in urban areas. From the mid 19th century, Portuguese and Chinese immigrant laborers were displaced on the estates by indentured East Indian "coolie" labor. They then became the nucleus of a merchant class, many becoming small shopkeepers. The East Indians came to predominate in the sugar estate areas and then in the "Indian villages" near the estates. In the 1950s and early 1960s a large proportion of the plots on settlements were allocated to East Indians, the land mostly being given to landless workers. Conversely, the bauxite community of Linden became a predominantly Afro Guyanese area, especially after racial violence in the early 1960s. For most of Guayana's history, population distribution and the pattern of migration reflected the efforts of the plantations and mining companies to secure a pliant and inexpensive labor supply. State policies helped concentrate the population around the major estates, but the more successful those policies the more their inherent contradictions induced social instability in the emergence of population growth, labor displacing mechanization, rising urban unemployment, and worsening poverty. The legacy of the contrived stagnation was pervasive. Because of the conflict between the social welfare role of the land settlement schemes and the need to increase production, the land settlement schemes were mostly ineffectual in defusing social unrest, absorbing the surplus population, and altering the pattern of migration which had concentrated the population in and around Georgetown.
India [Population education in countries of the region].
In 1981 India had a population of 683,810,051, representing a growth of 135 million over the preceding 10 years. An uneven sex ratio, rapid urbanization, a high dependency ratio, and a majority of the population in agriculture were other aspects of the population problem. A goal of the Indian government is to reduce the net reproduction rate from its present 1.67 to 1 by 1996, which implies a reduction of family size from the present 4.2 children/couple to 2.3 children. The importance of population education in efforts to reduce growth was not realized until 1969, when the 1st National Seminar on Population Education recommended introduction of population content into the existing curriculum of schools and colleges. Following the seminar, the National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT) set up a population education cell in its Department of Education in Social Sciences and Humanities. The population education cell developed curricula and instructional materials and worked out a model syllabus for population education for teacher training institutions. Promotional activities were later undertaken when it became apparent that the population education cell's efforts were not reaching the local schools. 4 regional workshops were organized in 1979, and a 3-year national population education project was designed to help students develop an insight into the relationship between population and economic problems and of India's population situation and policies, to institutionalize population education in the formal educational system, and to encourage rational family size decisions by students and the community at large. 2 workshops were held for preparation of detailed state project proposals. The state councils of Educational Research and Training or their equivalents were assigned the tasks of preparing the population education curricula, developing instructional materials, developing and implementing training programs for teachers and administrators, and monitoring the program. Workshops for curriculum and materials development were held in July 1980, and the NCERT Population Education Unit has published curriculum guidelines, draft syllabuses and reference materials. Several intensive workshops have been held for fulltime population education personnel. 5 slide and tape presentations have been developed for teacher training. The project is still in too early a stage for evaluation of its impact on the target audience.
Anatomic and physiologic factors affecting the development of transcervical sterilization techniques.
This article examines the influence of some tubal anatomic and physiologic factors on the development of nonsurgical transcervical approaches to female sterilization. The discussion of oviduct anatomy includes description of the size and outward appearance of the tubes, the structures and tissue types at various levels and their functions, and the cyclical alterations in tubal structures. The derivation of the blood supply and lymphatic drainage are also included. The discussion of tubal physiology considers tubal contractility, secretory activity, and ciliary activity. A brief schema of the mechanism of gamete transport is then proposed based on the observations regarding anatomy and physiology. Techniques of nonsurgical, transcervical sterilization seek either to induce localized trauma leading to closure of the oviduct or to insert intraluminal occluding devices to achieve a similar end. The ability of the oviduct to recanalize and heal itself contributes to the difficulty of developing tubal sterilization techniques that are simple, that avoid extensive destruction of the oviduct, and that are associated with low morbidity. Various anatomical aspects of the tubes pose difficulties for the use of nonsurgical sterilization techniques, including the variable diameter of the tubal lumen and its correlation with the myosalpinx, the limited compliance of the intramural segment, the nature of the pathway of the intramural portion of the tube through the wall of the uterus, the functioning of the uterotubal junction as a physiologic sphincter, and the ability of the oviduct to yield to intraluminal pressure by expanding or distending. Successful tubal occlusion requires trauma sufficient to destroy the tissue parenchyma so that it is replaced by nonfunctional scar tissue, which occludes the lumen. Resolution of injury depends on the nature and duration of exposure to a caustic agent, the extent of tissue destruction, and the type of tissue injured. The anatomy of the oviduct tends to minimize trauma and to promote healing. The achievement of longterm bilateral tubal closure through hysteroscopic sterilization seems inconsistent with reversibility if it is accepted that effective sterilization requires an insult sufficient to discourage tissue regeneration. Intraluminal plugs may however offer a possibility of reversal.
Overview of clinical trials with quinacrine.
Results are presented of 3 clinical studies conducted at an outpatient clinic in Santiago, Chile, on the safety and efficacy of quinacrine as a method of nonsurgical female sterilization. The 1st study evaluated the repeated transcervical instillation of 1500 mg quinacrine hydrochloride dissolved in 5 ml 2% lidocaine. Instillation was performed during the proliferative phase of the menstrual cycle in 200 women. Repeat instillations were done in the following monthly cycle and 6 months later. The 2nd study, in 165 women, evaluated the transcervical insertion of 250 mg quinacrine pellets, preceded by a single pellet of 20 mg sodium thiopental. Insertion was done during the proliferative phase and repeated 1 and 2 months later. The 3rd study, including 138 women, used the same protocol as the 2nd, omitting the sodium thiopental pellets. None of the women used other contraceptive methods. Mean age of the 3 groups ranged from 31.3 to 33.5 and mean number of live births ranged from 3.7 to 4.7. 30% of women entering the 1st study did not complete the 3 instillation schedule, compared to 10.3% in the 2nd and 12.3% in the 3rd study. The unacceptably high pregnancy rate associated with the solution procedure was reduced in the pellet studies. The pellets also appeared to reduce the incidence of transient psychosis, which affected 2% of women in the solution study but none in the pellet study. 1 woman in the 3rd study developed an acute pelvic inflammatory reaction that lasted 48 hours and was treated with penicillin. The gross life-table pregnancy rates/100 women completing 3 instillations at 12 months were 9.9 for the solution method, 4.3 for the pellets with sodium thiopental, and 3.1 for pellets without sodium thiopental. To date, 16 women in the 1st, 10 in the 2nd, and 7 in the 3rd study have become pregnant, with pregnancies occurring 2-27 months after the 3rd administration. No pregnancy was ectopic and most were terminated by induced abortion. High doses of quinacrine when administered intraperitoneally are toxic. The erratic performance of the quinacrine pellets in causing tubal occlusion is probably caused by uneven distribution to the tubal ostia. Improved delivery systems are being sought, including the use of an IUD to deliver the quinacrine to the tubal ostia and the development of a sustained-release pellet system.
Delivery systems for applying quinacrine as a tubal closing agent.
Application of 250 mg of quinacrine in tablet form in the uterus 3 times at monthly intervals as a form of nonsurgical sterilization has a success rate of about 98%. Other dosage forms are under consideration in an attempt to raise success rates further. A theoretical model of quinacrine sterilization supports the belief that controlled release of quinacrine could prolong exposure of the uterotubal junction to high concentrations and reduce the risk of serious side effects as a result of systemic absorption or accidental delivery of the drug into the peritoneal cavity. The probability of successful sterilizaiton with quinacrine appears to be constant when quinacrine is injected at intervals. A more effective dosage form would therfore reduce the number of instillations required to achieve the same success rate. The initial dosage form of quinacrine was a solution or slurry delivered into the uterine cavity through a cannula attached to a syringe; the slurries had a low effectiveness rate, caused occasional toxic psychosis, and carried risks of accidental intravenous or intraperitoneal delivery. Quinacrine powder in a gelatin capsule is under investigation as a possible alternative to tablets for delivering solid quinacrine because it slows down quinacrine absorption and dissolution. Quinacrine tablets designed to be deposited in the uterus through a polyethylene inserter were produced with nominal dissolution times of 10, 100, and 800 minutes, using cholesterol as the principal additive to delay dissolution. A simple polyethylene or polypropylene straw and push rod system has been a satisfactory method for intrauterine insertion of tablets. A system for placement of small rods or plugs of quinacrine directly in the uterotubal isthmus using a hysteroscope has been tested on specimens from women who have undergone hysterectomy, but no clinical trials have been attempted. The use of an IUD as a vector to deliver quinacrine into the uterine cavity and to position the quinacrine close to the uterotubal junction is under study; the success of the IUD system depends on obtaining a high probability of tubal closure with 1 IUD insertion. A theoretical model of the quinacrine chemical sterilization system outlined in the article provides a useful frame of reference for the evaluation of various possible dosage forms, even though some of the physiological parameters of the model are only estimates and the model itself is in a preliminary stage.
Discussion: Chinese techniques for chemical sterilization.
This paper summarizes a discussion of 2 simple techniques of nonsurgical female sterilization under investigation in China. Almost 100% successful entry of the tubes has been achieved over the past several years with the PAP instillation at the Xin-Hua Hospital in Shanghai. Some 30,000 patients are believed to have had PAP instillations in some 200 medical units in China. The patients followed for the most recent 2-year period had a 99% success rate. 4 or 5 nurses, physicians, or midwives receive training each month at a hospital in Canton in the phenol-mucilage procedure. Performance of the PAP instillation technique on 20 patients is considered to indicate proficiency in the technique. The PAP instillation procedure usually requires 15 minutes or less, depending on the position of the tubes. Some endometrial irritation may be caused by the material flowing back into the uterine cavity after the PAP injection, but the irritation does not seem to last. No cases of endometrial adhesions have developed after the procedure. Although use of silver nitrate, an ion similar to phenol, was discontinued in the US because of the high proportion of patients complaining of pelvic pain, pain has not been a major complaint in the phenol-mucilage studies in China. Some patients complained of backache or abdominal bloating, and 40 patients in 1 study had pelvic inflammation probably secondary to chemical peritoneal irritation. Very few surgical sterilizaiton procedures are now being done in China, and the chemical sterilization procedure is recommended because it is simple and requires no surgery. The PAP procedure is considered successful as long as there is no back-flow of the saline and an appropriate result of the sodium saccharide test is obtained. The 99% success rate is probably a very accurate figure because of the excellent follow-up of patients.
Future developments in the FEMCEPT/MCA system.
The FEMCEPT device, which delivers nonpolymerizing, nonadhesive fluids of the viscosity of water to the fallopian tubes bilaterally after a single application, has a bilateral delivery rate of approximately 80% with free-flowing thin liquids in normal uteri. Methyl cyanoacrylate (MCA) used with the FEMCEPT device begins to polymerize immediately after application and its viscosity increases rapidly. Cinehysterosalpingographic studies of radiopaque MCA indicate little progress in tubal entry after the 1st 20 seconds. The rate of entry of MCA into the fallopian tubes has increased steadily during the course of the FEMCEPT project. Successful radiopacifying of MCA was accompanied by an increase in its ability to flow and in tubal entry and bilateral tubal closure. Additional improvements in spreadability and control of viscosity and adhesiveness will probably increase the rate of bilateral entry, but may necessitate other changes in the system to avoid possible undesirable side effects. Changes in the inhibitor additives that would increase spreadability and potentially enhance entry rates are under investigation. Experience with radiopaque MCA indicates that tubal closure does not always follow tubal entry, even when MCA extends the length of the fallopian tube. The mechanisms through which MCA produces tubal closure are thus under study. Additional studies using cinehysterosalpingography are underway to identify the mechanism responsible for the failure of MCA to penetrate the tube and correct the problem, and a sufficiently opaque MCA that will permit consistent detection of tubal entry by means of postapplication X-ray is being sought so that patients in whom bilateral closure is unlikely can be identified immediately. Preliminary studies indicate that a 50% more radiopaque MCA is feasible. A 78% bilateral closure rate was achieved after 1 application of nonradiopaque MCA in 102 women, and the rate was increased to 87% using radiopaque MCA. An evaluation of a protocol is planned to study the effects of double applications on bilateral closure rates. All participants would receive 2 applications, 1/3 each at 2,3, or 4 month intervals. The study should indicate whether a prolongation of intervals enhances bilateral closure. The longterm followup of patients treated successfully with MCA will continue in order to confirm the longterm effectiveness and to assure absence of undesirable sequelae. The safety and effectiveness of the FEMCEPT/MCA system have been demonstrated, and it is believed that a number of enhancements may lead to a significant role for it in family planning programs within the next several years.
Formed-in-place silicone plugs: improvements and limitations.
Improved techniques for use in sterilization procedures using formed-in-place silicone plugs and remaining limitations are surveyed. Methods for improving location of tubal ostia include use of dextran 70, 32% in 10% glucose (Hyskon) rather than CO2 or 5% to 10% glucose, because Hyskon's viscosity and flow characteristics are helpful in clearing the ostia of blood, mucus, and endometrial debris; development of a simple aspirator consisting of a 75 cm length of 2 mm polysulfone tubing attached to a standard 30 ml syringe by a Tuohy-Borst fitting; and use of methylene blue tests to distinguish the tubal ostia from other structures in the endometrium. Aids in obtaining proper tubal perfusion include instruments and medications. A "kink" or memory curve placed in the guide is useful for patients with laterally placed tubes or considerable uterine retroversion. Modified obturator tips have been developed for the large tubal ostia often encountered in grand multiparous patients and for obtaining a parallel axis with minor degrees of lateral tubal ostia. Medications are used to relieve tubal spasm. Sodium naproxen (Anaprox) has been used frequently, and appears to cause some uterine relaxation and prevent some cramping during the procedure. If tubal spasm persists, 1 unit glucagon is given intravenously and usually relieves the spasm. Neither diazepam nor meperidine appears to relieve painful uterine cramping. The limitations to the procedure are mainly anatomical. Fixed retroversion and tubal disease are the most common but occasionally a myoma may prohibit tubal obturation. Performing the procedure too early in the postabortal or postpartum period can present difficulties. Serious complications other than pregnancies have been rare. 13 pregnancies occurred in 965 women treated. All pregnancies were associated with failure to achieve proper bilateralplug formation. 1 pregnancy was ectopic. 3 patients developed chronic low grade pelvic pain after having plugs in place for 12-18 months. Symptoms disappeared on removal of plugs. 5 uterine perforations occurred and were treated with observation only. Fewer than 3% had minor bleeding problems. 1 patient had an acute exacerbation of pelvic inflammatory disease with sepsis 48 hours after instillation and required hospitalization and triple chemotherapy. Tip separation occurred in 9 of 67 patients examined at 24 months, possibly due to a defect at original plug formation. 82% of patients treated had successful bilateral tubal occlusion. 4525 woman months of use have occurred without pregnancy in patients with proper plugs.
Discussion: tubal occlusive devices.
Questions about tubal occlusive devices are answered in this document. In animal studies and limited human studies, no perforation of the uterus has occurred with any of the tubal blocking devices. No hematologic study has been done with the uterotubal junction blocking device to determine whether it would cause mild leukocytosis, but investigators looking for leukocytosis in the endometrium with the P-block device have not found an increased number of round cells or leukocytes, and the irritation is minimal. When 1 plug is lost and the tube is found to be patent, the patient must undergo a 2nd hysteroscopic procedure for replacement or removal of the other plug. The swelling factor of the P-block can be increased or decreased by controlling the amount of nylon 6 added. Because the tubal diameter changes with the hormonal phases, the device should be compressible but always trying to distend outward toward the epithelial lining to achieve complete occlusion. The 2nd set of wings on the newer P-block design serve only to keep the hydrogelic body on the nylon-6 skeleton. At present, the hysteroscopically placed plug method requires a paracervical block, but the anesthesiologist does not have to be present in the operating room. During placement of tubal plugs the invasiveness is limited and the peritoneal cavity is not invaded. In the mind of the patient it is a nonsurgical procedure because no surgical incision is required. Work is underway by an instrument company on a "steerable" hysteroscope which would facilitate implantation of plugs in the tubes. Research over the past several years with cryosurgery using nitrous oxide or liquid nitrogen as a tubal occluding method has produced inconsistent results, with regeneration of tubal epithelium creating major problems. An approach using multiple short freeze-thaw cycles of less than 30 seconds for the active freeze cycle, repeated for 3 cycles and producing a smaller area of coagulation, has given promising results. With the shorter cycles, granulation tissue grows across the area before the tubal epithelium is able to grow down and recanalize the area, producing more consistent closure. The method has been tested in only a few patients and will not be ready for clinical trial for a year or 2.
Food, infection, and population.
The relation between food and population growth is outlined in simple terms before attempting the more difficult task of presenting the grounds on which it is based. It is concluded that the slow growth of the human population prior to the 18th century was primarily because of lack of food, and the rapid increase from that time resulted largely from improved nutrition. The influence of food on population size in the historical period was determined essentially by the relation between nutritional state and response to infectious disease. It is historians and not medical people who find it difficult to accept that immunization and therapy accomplished little before the 20th century. Most physicians accept that medical intervention was ineffective before 1900 and remain unconvinced by the assertion that 18th century hospitals cured or relieved nearly all of their patients. Clinical experience is supported by investigations of the reasons for the decline of deaths from individual infectious diseases. Reduction of exposure to infection was important mainly in the case of diseases spread by water and food, and the basis measures were introduced progressively from the later years of the 19th century. In regard to the general interpretation of the determinants of health and population growth the important conclusion is that exposure to infection increased in the early period of industrialization when mortality from infectious diseases was falling. The notion that for both early and modern humans deliberate fertility restriction played an important part in preserving health and limiting population growth is unconvincing. The thesis that other animals, in their natural habitats, maintain their "numbers at about the level at which food resources are utilized to the fullest extent possible without depletion" has been criticized by many biologists. They argue that natural selection acts by favoring some individuals rather than others. The effectiveness of the methods that restrict human fertility has been overestimated. No convincing evidence exists that the growth of any population has been limited substantially by restraints on the frequency of intercourse. In developing countries at this time there is little evidence that fertility is effectively controlled by the restraints that are practiced. From the conclusion that fertility was not effectively controlled, it follows that the slow growth in population before the 18th century was due to high mortality and that the expansion since that time resulted from less frequent deaths. And, if medical intervention, changes in the character of infectious diseases, and reduction of exposure to the major influences on the decline of the infections are excluded, what is left is the possibility that response to the diseases was modified by improved nutrition.
Nutrition, mortality, and population size: Malthus' court of last resort.
The relevance of the Malthusian equilibrium between resources and population is often exaggerated, and the mechanisms linking fertility and mortality to food supplies require empirical support which is not yet convincing. The graphical presentation usually employed to summarize the equilibrium between population and resources is too schematic to indicate the mechanisms involved. It fails to depict the inequalities in entitlement or the possible diversity in what is needed for survival. Malthus does not clearly distinguish between those sources of mortality which are only tenuously, if at all, linked to resources and those in which the relationship is apparent. If the concept of an equilibrium is flawed, then what remains of the necessary relationship which Malthus postulated between population and resources. Assuming a closed population in which individuals are equal in entitlement and in survival requirements, the edogenous aspects of the Malthusian equation are examined, specifically the way in which resources are linked to the stream of births and deaths which jointly determine population size. Fertility may play a role in the homeostatic adjustment. In many historical societies, births were essentially confined to married women. Thus an important determinant of the yearly number of births was the proportion of women in childbearing age who were married. There is an "a priori" reason to expect that a similar relationship may be found in other populations characterized by the Western European marriage pattern. Once marriage was separated from menarche, and neither its timing nor its incidence was a function of biology, it was free to fluctuate with changes in the economic environment. In many nonEuropean societies marriage was closely linked to menarche. Under some assumptions, a substantial decline in the age of menarche could have a considerable effect on overall fertility. Resources could affect the length of time from 1 live birth to another. The most obvious path is through nutrition. The evidence that ovulation ceases when nutritional deprivation is extreme is convincing, but such periods are also likely to be times in which ordinary family life is atypical in other ways. Nutrition is not the only factor to be considered. Coital frequency may be reduced when times are bad. It is unclear whether customs regulating nursing are associated with resources, but it may be that populations in which these customs took hold were better able to cope with a chronic insufficiency of resources than were those in which births normally followed 1 another with great rapidity. There is too little evidence to treat these possible connections between births and resources as more than speculative. Excluding periods of crisis mortality, neither the high death rates of the past nor the comparatively high death rates of some contemporary countries can be attributed to widespread starvation. Mortality may be tied to the availability of food at levels of undernourishment that fall short of starvation.
A social psychological approach to reducing pregnancy risk in adolescence.
Several common social behaviors believed to be closely related to the high incidence of unwanted pregnancy among the teen population are discussed. These behaviors are all related to the general reluctance to acknowledge sexuality as a legitimate and important personal quality for adolescents. Suggesting how awareness of social factors can reduce risk, some general and specific suggestions are made for implementing educational programs aimed at reducing the incidence of unprotected sexual intercourse and associated unplanned pregnancies. Interviews were conducted with 90 white, single, heterosexual undergraduate men and women who have engaged in unprotected coitus. In this survey, whether males sought sex for peer recognition, for personal satisfaction, or both, many of them believed that a frank discussion of sex or contraception could reduce chances of "success." Their comments revealed an ambivalence that plagues male adolescents in relation to contraception and sexuality. The male perception that early discussion of sex or contraception will reduce sexual opportunities is not totally inaccurate in that it was corroborated by some of the female informants. Some of the female adolescents indicated that many sexual acts "just happened to them" without forethought. The general phenomenon of failing to discuss sex before participating in it may be subsumed under a cultural "sexual mystique" which functions to reduce female (and some male) sex guilt by creating an illusion of unintentional sex. Real or imagined social pressures impinging on teenage men and women frequently tip the scales in favor of "taking a chance" with unprotected sexual intercourse. The respondents, especially females, often expressed fear that their possession of oral contraceptives (OCs), diaphragms, condoms, or other paraphernalia would be discovered and lead to their unmasking as sexually active. Respondents reported that they were more likely to talk about contraception and to avoid pregnancy risks in the context of a longterm intimate relationship. A major goal of educational programs that include social factors should be to increase sensitivity to the situations in which unplanned sex may occur, but a program designed to reduce pregnancy risk must go beyond sensitizing adolescents to the kinds of general social psychological variables identified. Several specific suggestions are outlined. These include: establishing the legitimacy of presex talking about sexuality and contraception; helping individuals to acknowledge their own sexuality; rejection of seduction as a legitimate activity; and legitimizing regular purchase, carrying, and convenient placement of contraceptives even in periods of sexual dormancy.
Contraceptive technology 1984-1985. 12th rev. ed.
The 1984-85 edition of Contraceptive Technology, written for physicians and other personnel involved in family planning work, is aimed at helping professionals to work with clients in selecting the most appropriate method of contraception. Detailed information is provided on each of the methods of contraception (hormonal, IUDs, barrier devices, vaginal spermicides, fertility awareness, abstinence, sex without intercourse, coitus interruptus, lactation, postcoital contraception, and sterilization), with an emphasis on instructions that should be given to patients who select a particular method. A chapter on population and family planning has been added to this volume. Other chapters cover areas such as pregnancy testing, abortion, informed consent, sexually transmitted diseases, and nutrition and drug interactions. The volume, which is highly readable, contains numerous line drawings and tables.
Trends in sterilization: the American experience.
Female sterilization acceptance increased dramatically during the 1970s, with a trend toward interval sterilization. Sterilization has become the most popular method of birth control for US couples over age 35 years or those whose families are complete. Factors accounting for the increasing popularity of female sterilization include dissatisfaction with unreliable methods of birth control, emphasis on reproductive freedom, accelerating numbers of employed women, lessening of restrictions on sterilization, decline in popularity of vasectomy, and development of improved female sterilization techniques. This article briefly reviews the advantages, disadvantages, and potential complications of the various female sterilization techniques. Also reviewed are the factors determining which method is selected, e.g., documented results, teaching department preferences and funding limitations, personal experiences and biases, complications experienced or witnessed, risk of litigation, and desire for reversibility. Finally, several future directions in female sterilization are projected. It is asserted that innovations in female sterilization are reaching a plateau and the 1980s will witness a marked decline in new techniques. Rather, there will be a better understanding of current practices with increasing interest in mechanical methods of tubal closure (e.g., the Hulka-Clemens clip), open laparoscopy, local anesthesia, and outpatient surgical settings.
Culdotomy.
Culdotomy, incision through the posterior vaginal fornix into the cul-de-sac or pouch of Douglas, is the standard technique of vaginal tubal sterilization in women who do not want abdominal surgery. Sterilizations are often more difficult to perform through a culdotomy than through an abdominal incision; such procedures are more likely to be successful if the patient has mobile pelvic organs and a parous vagina, and less likely to be successful in obese patients, those with long, narrow vaginas, and those with pelvic masses or adhesions. Culdotomy should be avoided after late abortion or term delivery. The preoperative medical history should rule out contraindications such as endometriosis, adhesions due to pelvic inflammatory disease, a pelvic mass, or pelvic tuberculosis. The operation may be performed on an inpatient or outpatient basis. General or conduction anesthesia provides optimal relaxation and pain relief. A number of procedures can be used for tubal sterilization: fimbriectomy, Pomeroy ligation, modified Pomeroy, and Madlener techniques are recommended. In 1 series of 5123 women sterilized by culdotomy, the most frequent reason for failure to complete the sterilization was pelvic or tubal adhesions, followed by obesity. Adhesions were also the most frequent reason for failure to complete the procedure in 1043 interval sterilizations performed in a 5-year period by 21 contributors to the International Fertility Research Program. Infection, hemorrhage, and injury to other structures are the most frequent medical complications of sterilization by culdotomy. In the series cited above, 3.4% and 5.6% of patients experienced major complications. The incidence of major complications is higher for sterilizations by culdotomy than for sterilizations performed by laparotomy or laparoscopy, but culdotomy may be more acceptable than abdominal procedures for some women.
Bipolar high-frequency coagulation.
This chapter assesses the results of 6085 tubal sterilizations by bipolar electrocoagulation performed at the Universities of Basel and Tubingen. 85.5% of the procedures were performed during a nonpregnant interval, reflecting the recent decline in the percentage of postpartum sterilizations. 92% of the sterilizations were performed by laparoscopy and the remaining 8% were performed at the time of cesarean section. 75% of the laparoscopic sterilizations were done using the single puncture technique and 25% used the double puncture method. 26% of the Tubingen procedures were done under local anesthesia. Although no deaths occurred in this series, there were 3 lesions of the small bowel. Other major complications included tubo-ovarian abscesses (2 cases), significant bleeding from the epigastric or mesenteric vessels or mesosalpinx (4 cases), hematoma in mesosalpinx (2 cases), and technical failure to perform the sterilization due to adhesions (5 cases). The overall rate of major complications in this series was 2.6/1000. There were 20 pregnancies following sterilization (3.2/1000 failure rate), including 4 luteal phase pregnancies, 3 surgical errors, and 13 method failures. 8 of the 13 method failure pregnancies were extrauterine. It is concluded that bipolar coagulation is a safe and efficient method for tubal sterilization. Its main advantage is that the coagulation zone can be strictly confined to the tube without impairment of the mesosalpinx and its vessels. However, sterilization by this method appears to be less reversible than sterilization by mechanical techniques. Reduction of the length of the coagulation zone from 1.5 to 0.5 cm could theoretically enhance the potential for reversibility, but the impact of such a change on the effectiveness of the procedure has not been investigated.
Thermal endoscopic techniques.
Establishing a pneumoperitoneum is the key to safe and successful laparoscopy, but it can be difficult in obese patients or those with previous abdominal surgery. Alterations to the usual site for introduction of the Verres insufflation needle at the lower edge of the umbilicus include above and to the left of the umbilicus or in the midline above the symphysis pubis provided the bladder is empty. Tuohy needles have a greater risk of perforating the intestine than Verres or Palmer spring needles. The needle should never be introduced with a sharp deep stab, and the abdominal wall should be raised so that the needle advances almost horizontally. A syringe test using sterile saline solution confirms the proper placement of the pneumoperitoneum needle. The gas supply is then attached. The steadily increasing intraabdominal pressure must be measured and the volume and flow rate of gas controlled. Carbon dioxide used with a general anesthetic is excellent from the point of view of operative procedures and recovery. Nitrous oxide is an alternative, but oxygen and air should not be used if diathermy is to be done within the abdomen. In a recently developed method of applying destructive heat to the tubes, a circuit of electricity is passed through the shaft of forceps or scissors to a metal element, which is heated under electronic control. The working ends are coated with Teflon. The tissues heated are those in direct contact with the jaws of the forceps or scissors and those no more than 3 mm away. The thermal coagulators can be applied through an operating laparoscope or through a 2nd puncture trocar and cannula. Thermal coagulation can be used for tubal sterilization by coagulation alone or by coagulation and division, for hemostasis, and for lysis of adhesions. The Teflon-coated forceps are applied 2 cm from the uterine cornu, the application is repeated, and the tube is divided during coagulation and division. For coagulation alone, 4 applications are successively made until at least 4 cm of tube has been treated. The procedure can be modified for use with local anesthesia. No pregnancies have occurred in 150 sterilizations by thermal coagulation and division after 2 years. Reanastomosis by microsurgical methods should have a high success rate following limited thermal coagulation and division.
The Hulka-Clemens clip.
This article summarizes experience with the Hulka-Clemens clip for female sterilization. The present model of this device embodies 4 principles: 1) the spring provides permanent pressure sufficient to occlude the lumen of the fallopian tubes while the muscularis undergoes necrosis and resorption; 2) the clip is firmly anchored to the tube by the teeth in the upper and lower jaws; 3) the device is wide enough to prevent tissue within the jaws from remaining viable; and 4) the device's external surfaces are smooth, reducing the potential for adhesion formation. When correctly positioned across the full width of the fallopian tube within 2 cm of the uterotubal junction, the Hulka-Clemens clip has a failure rate not exceeding 5/1000. The single-puncture laparoscopic technique is probably associated with a higher failure rate than the double-puncture technique. Because the clip damages less than 0.5 cm of fallopian tube, subsequent successfu reversal of this method of sterilization can be expected in at least 75% of cases. Postoperative lower abdominal discomfort following sterilization has been reported in less than 5% of women. The clip is not believed to cause menstrual disturbances in the 1st year after the procedure.
The Filshie clip.
The Filshie clip, made of titanium lined on its inner surface with silicone rubber, was designed to combine simplicity and effectiveness. The clip compresses both the fallopian tube and the silicone rubber as it closes over the tube, but as the tube undergoes avascular necrosis and shrinks, the compressed rubber expands. After successful preliminary studies on pigs beginning in 1974, human studies were begun in 1975 but yielded unacceptably high failure rates, primarily due to clip displacement probably caused by tubal muscular peristalsis. A modified clip, the Mark 4a, was developed, and a laparoscopic applicator and trocar were developed for use with it. 540 women who had Mark 3, 4, and 4a model Filshie clips applied in Great Britain by over 20 surgeons between December 1978 and December 1979 were available for follow-up for periods ranging from 5-17 months, for a total of about 4575 women-months of exposure, with an average of 8.5 months. 176 of the women were followed up with a mail questionnaire. The patients' ages ranged from 18-46 years, with a modal age of 30-34 years. Parity ranged from 0-7, the mode was 2, and 16 women were nulliparous. 128 women received Mark 3 clips, 223 received Mark 4, and 189 received Mark 4a. The Mark 3 model had no latching action and the Mark 4a had no teeth molded into the rubber. 80% of the women underwent minilaparotomy, 18% laparoscopy, and 2% laparotomy. 11.5% underwent concomitant abortion. Less than 1% had immediate postpartum clip applications. 96% had general anesthesia. 3 pregnancies occurred in the series. The clips were improperly applied in 2, but they were properly applied in the 3rd, an ectopic pregnancy that was the only 1 reported in the entire series of over 4600 Filshie clip sterilizations. Significant complications included severe pelvic inflammatory disease in 1 patient, dye spill revealed by hysterosalpingogram 4 months after minilaparotomy clipping following abortion in 1 patient, who was resterilized, and clip related adhesions in 1 woman who underwent an appendectomy 10 days after minilap interval clipping. 4 women had hysterectomies performed for reasons unrelated to the clips and 2 had clips removed because of pain, which did not appear to be caused by the clips.
Minilaparotomy sterilization.
Minilaparotomy sterilization is safe and simple, can be performed by a physician with average skills or a trained paramedic, lends itself to outpatient surgery under local anesthesia, allows direct visualization of the fallopian tubes and observation of adnexal pathology, and can be combined with pregnancy termination. A major disadvantage of this method is the increased risk of bowel injury or bladder injury. Deep sedation should be avoided with this procedure. Pomeroy's and Madlener's methods are used most frequently for occlusion. Madlener's method gives a higher failure rate (3-5/100) if the tube is crushed with a hemostat and ligated or tied too tightly with thin linen or silk ligature, and both methods can induce fistula formation. However, the failure rate falls to 0.5/100 if ligation is done with a thick, nonabsorbable material without crushing with a hemostat. Pomeroy's method has a lower failure rate, but a larger length of tube is sacrificed when the loop is excised. The ideal site of ligation is 2.5-3.0 cm from the cornu of the uterus. The minilaparotomy technique has a longterm morbidity rate of 0.5/100 and a mortality rate of 1/12,000. It is the most easily applicable method for use in national sterilization programs where the caseload is large and available expertise is limited.
Hysteroscopic sterilization.
Technical improvements in endoscopy and instrumentation and greater knowledge concerning the nature of tubal tissue led to a revival of interest in hysteroscopic sterilization during the 1970s. Various techniques and chemical substances were tested, with particular emphasis on preventing liquids from running out into the pelvic cavity. Although several substances produced destruction of the tubal epithelium and surrounding cornual myometrium, the damage was generally not extensive enough to produce a lasting occlusion. The rate of occlusion ranged from 40-90%. The success of the operation tends to depend on the length of tube destroyed. The theory that sterilization can be effected in an open fallopian tube as long as the intramural portion has been disturbed and the muscular function of the tube destroyed has been disproved in clinical research. The optimal time for coagulation of the tubal ostium is considered to be during the proliferative phase of the menstrual cycle; the tubal orifices can be identified more easily and the probe can be introduced with less difficulty. Excessive current during coagulation is believed to contribute to the failure rate of this procedure by destroying too much tissue. Heat no greater than 90 degrees Celsius and applied for 60 seconds was found in a series of patients investigated by the author to cause tissue destruction over an area 4 mm in diameter, which is ideal for the development of late scarring. Greater destruction of the tube would lead to sloughing, which would hinder obliteration by scarring.
Motivation for sterilization: a descriptive study.
Women requesting sterilization at the Center for Human Reproduction, a free-standing clinic in Leiden, the Netherlands, differ from those requesting sterilization at other centers in the Netherlands. Almost 1/3 of the 1st 1000 women seen were from other countries, and many were young, unmarried, and childless. Such women were overrepresented because their sterilization requests were rejected elsewhere. A counseling session with a clinic psychologist always precedes sterilizations at the Center. Only women under 21 and those lacking motivation are rejected. Of the 1st 1000 women seen, 937 were ultimately sterilized. Among 56 not sterilized, 13 were rejected on medical grounds, 10 for insufficient motivation, 25 withdrew their applications during counseling, and 8 postponed the decision. Reasons for rejection because of insufficient motivation included emotional instability or immaturity, depression, suicidal tendencies, and lack of sexual contact. 34% of the women were under 30, 35% had no children, and 26% were unmarried. The major motives for sterilization were completed family and wish to remain childless. Others included idealism, complaints about oral contraceptives (OCs), disease, age, sterilization of both partners, pregnancy termination in the past 6 months, and preference for adoption. Among women aged 21-24 years, 67% were unmarried and 60% were German. 94 of 115 in the age group wanted to remain childless, primarily because of a desire for independence. Young German women often stated they considered Germany hostile to children. 77% of the women aged 25-29 were married or cohabiting, 40% were German, and 53% were Dutch. Idealistic motives and a desire for independence were major factors in the sterilization decision. The majority of applicants aged 30 and over were married and of Dutch nationality. 82% felt their desired family size had been reached. 27% were deliberately childless. 9% were dissatisfied with OCs and 9.5% had undergone abortion in the past 6 months. Preferentially childness women tended to be younger than the women with children, to have idealistic motives, to use contraception effectively, to object to OCs on theoretical grounds, and to be German. Women with children tended to be older, to have completed families, to complain about OCs, and to be Dutch.
Counseling in voluntary surgical contraception.
Good counseling is an important component of voluntary surgical sterilization. Service providers must ensure that the individual understands the nature and consequences of the surgery and that the decision to use the method is informed, mature, and unpressured. The counseling session should address the questions of whether sterilization should be performed, which partner should be sterilized, and how and when the procedure should be performed. Counseling should aim both to provide information and to promote individual growth and development. The individual's right to choose his or her method of fertility management without coercion or manipulation must be protected. Illiterate clients must be treated with dignity and courtesy. Couples who are secure in their marital relationship are the best candidates for sterilization. However, in evaluating the legitimacy of a client's request for sterilization, a counselor should consider the needs of those suffering from the stresses of poverty, marginal health, and grand multiparity.
Psychosexual responses to female sterilization.
Although few controlled, rigorous studies have been performed on psychosexual responses to female sterilization, complaints appear to be related to conditions and attitudes that prevailed at the time of sterilization. Medically indicated sterilizations are associated with the highest rates of regret. In addition, women who have been socialized to equate feminity with reproductive capacity are likely to report a feeling of loss following the procedure. However, in many cases, sterilization can enhance sexual and personal satisfaction by combining freedom of sexual expression with a pregnancy-free future. Women at greatest risk of an adverse psychosexual reaction to sterilization include those whose sterilization is involuntary, those who must have the surgery due to a life-threatening condition, individuals requesting the procedure in the middle of a personal crisis, and those who are complying with another person's wish that they be sterilized. A concomitant abortion or delivery may also increase the risk of a negative reaction. It is suggested that mature, multiparous women are no longer the best candidates for sterilization. Young, nulliparous women have also benefited from the procedure, although this category of women presents physicians with the challenge of divorcing their own opinions about sterilization and childless women from the process of deciding who should receive the procedure. Preoperative screening and counseling aimed at ascertaining the psychological readiness of the individual to terminate her fertility on a permanent basis can greatly reduce the adverse psychosexual effects of sterilization. The counseling staff should be sensitive to indications of potential hazards, aware of normal processes, and supportive of the expression of feelings. Longitudinal studies with properly designed control groups are required to evaluate the psychosexual aftermath of female sterilization. It is expected that, given recent simplification of the procedure through laparoscopy, future studies will reveal more favorable reactions and less regret.
World population growth: an anti-doomsday view.
In contrast to the doomsday view of world population growth that posits increasing scarcity, the author asserts that a growing population is preferable to one that is stationary or declining. Historical analysis shows that population size tends to adjust to productive conditions. The evidence further indicates that population growth does not hinder, and perhaps helps, economic growth. Per capita income has been growing as fast or faster in developing as in developed countries, despite more rapid population growth in the former countries. A larger population also provides economies of scale for expensive social investments such as ports and irrigation systems and enables public services to be provided at a lower cost per person. The most important benefit of population growth is that it increases the stock of useful knowledge in the areas of science and technology, thereby increasing productivity. Although population growth causes problems in the short run, additional people represent the means to solve these problems. Given the boundless nature of human knowledge and imagination, it is concluded that there is no reason for pessimism about the future.
Organisational policy for family planning
In examining the macro and micro organizational policy issues in family planning, the basic concern was with the factors that impede effective family planning and population policy performance in India. Specific study objectives were the following: to assess the basic strategy and conceptual framework of the organization policy for population control; to examine the effectiveness of the existing administrative operation of the family planning organization to deal with the tasks assigned to it; to assess the level of infrastructual facilities available for implementing the program; to assess the nature and extent of communication and motivation activites undertaken by family planning personnel; and to suggest to the extent possible, an alternative organizational policy framework that will make for a more successful implementation of India's family planning program. The study was conducted through 4 processes: interview, obervation, discussion, and collection of recorded data. Both the macro and micro organizational policy frameworks of the family planning program, except to a considerable extent in Gujarat, fail to promise much program success. It is a story of what does not work. A family planning program by its very character is not exactly amenable to a bureaucratic system of administration. It depends too much upon the people for its acceptance. The relative succes of Gujarat offers many lessons for the country. The active role of the Panchayats, their interest in the program and support in taking the program to the people requires reexamining the central government's organizational theory. There is enough evidence that the Panchayats work a great deal for the benefit of the local "haves." The "have nots" are neglected and denied benefits and often made victims. With all these limitations, it has still been better to localize issues and programs so that the political struggles are fought at the level where people can directly participate rather than be pushed through the impersonal, hierarchical bureaucracy. Gujarat brings home the importance of the state political commitment to the program. Within the overal limitation of the macro political administrative strategy, much could have been done if an effective strategy of differentiation and integration had been worked out.
Development planning and population policy in Puerto Rico: from historical evolution towards a plan for population stabilization
Puerto Rico's population in mid 1975 was 3,100,000 with an overall population density of over 900 people/square mile and a population growth rate of about 3% annually. The announced population and development policy of Puerto Rico now in effect is based on a recognition of a serious imbalance between population and resources and on 3 basic solutions: 1) after 1941, an aggressive economic development program; 2) after 1947, a migrant supervision and assistance office headquartered and fuctioning on the US mainland to help migrants from Puerto Rico solve various migration related social and labor force problems, and 3) after 1970, a clear and announced family planning policy and program dedicated to providing a wide range of medical and related services to all persons needing and voluntarily seeking such services. As of 1976, the economic development project has been hampered by structural problems and worldwide economic crisis, the migrant-assistance program is serving a declining clientele, and the family planning program is being strengthened to reduce fertility. The historical study of population policy in Puerto Rico in this monograph begins in the year 1898 during which 2 events foreshadowed the subsequent development of both population and population policy in Puerto Rico: 1) the debut of organized emigration from Puerto Rico to Hawaii, and 2) the political junction of Puerto Rico and the US with the end of the Spanish-American War and the cessation to the US by Spain of its sovereignty over Puerto Rico. The subsequent development of population policy in Puerto Rico is mostly a history of alternative development policies all directed toward the perceived imbalance between the demographic and economic realities but differing in choice or emphasis as to the 3 solutions of mass emigration, contraception, and economic development. Some notable historical population policy inputs are: 1) the early and intense politicizing of population as both a problem and policy subject, 2) that the birth control movement in Puerto Rico was first founded by a dedicated Communist Party leader but later to be rejected by various political personalities and movements of the left, 3) the unprecedented and short-lived development of a US government policy for birth control in Puerto Rico, 4) a US and Puerto Rican government shift to emphasizing greater planning for greater production, 5) the rise and fall of 1 of the world's highest proportional levels of population emigration, 6) the rise to perhaps the world's highest incidence of female sterilization, and apparently resulting more from private than public medical policies and services, and 7) the long and intense opposition of the Catholic Church in Puerto Rico to birth control, culminating in the organizaiton and failure of a Catholic-based political party in an election campaign. Also included in this book is a futures study of alternative paths to a goal of population stabilizaiton by the year 2075. The recommendation is for achievement of replacement level fertility by 1985 as a necessary demographic input for the longer-run achievement of stabilizaiton by the year 2050.
The life table and its applications
Recent advances in probability and statistical theory have made it possible to see life tables from a purely stochastic point of view and to provide the subject with a theoretical foundation. The life table is now used for survival analysis and it is possible to make statistical inference about the elements in the table and about other parameters underlying the mortality pattern of a study population. Life table analysis is unique in the statistical field in that given the survival experience of a sample of individuals, there is a sequence of sample means in the expectations of life and sequences of sample proportions which are maximum likelihood estimators of the corresponding mathematical expectations and probabilities with optimum properties. This book presents the theory and application of life table methodology from a statistical perspective. The concept of probability involves: 1) a random experiment, 2) possible outcomes of that experiment, and 3) an event of interest. The normal distribution is a probability distribution of a continuous random variable symmetrical with respect to the mean; its values extend from minus infinity to plus infinity. The exact shape of a normal distribution depends on the values of the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution. Statistical inference about population means and population proportions fall into the categories of estimation and hypothesis testing. In identifying the age-specifc probability of death, the number of deaths in the interval divided by the number of individuals living at the beginning of the interval is the methodology used; this is the basic quantity in the construction of life tables and the ultimate measure in studies of the mortality pattern of a population in determining mortality trends, in comparing survival experience of different communities, and in computing insurance premiums. Adjustment of rates can be made with respect to age, sex, occupation, and other variables. There are 2 principle forms of the life table, the cohort, which records the actual mortality experience of a particular group of individuals, and the current, which gives a cross-sectional view of the mortality and survival of a population during a current year. Medical follow-up studies and life testing have as their common immediate objective the estimation of life expectancy and survival rates for a defined population at risk. A new life table methodology is presented to accomodate density function, distribution fuction, and the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters involved. Also included are computer programs for construction of complete and abridged life tables.
The dilemma of American immigration: beyond the golden door
Recent research on the descendants of early immigrants to the US shows that most of the fears of those advocating immigration restriction were illfounded. Rather than forming a disadvantraged class, late 19th and early 20th century immigrants have done very well and often earn more and have higher levels of education than those whose ancestors came decades earlier. The authors ask if the restriction on immigration in the 1920s was a necessary condition for the immigrants' success and if today a stronger case can be made for restrictions. Government action in the regulation of immigration has passed through 3 phases: 1) the period before 1875 which involved relatively little regualtion and no numerical or national origin quotas; 2) 1875 to 1965, a time of both numerical and racial or ethnic restrictions; and 3) 1965 and onward with the elimination of national-origin formulas and a new series of preferences based on family reunification, with a smaller role for personal skills. Legislation eventually responded to public opinion and a strong undercurrent of nativism has ended while there have also been strong prevailing sentiments in favor of continued immigration. Every stream of immigrants to the US brought skilled laborers as well as professional and commercial workers; immigration patterns have been similar for all groups. But today's immigration stream, including illegal aliens, is disproportionately Spanish speaking, is lower skilled relative to the US labor force, and is brought to the US by new factors. The continuities outweigh the discontinuities and the similarities outweigh the dissimilarities. The new immigrants do not, however, appear to be doing as well as the immigrant from the "old" sending countries of Europe. Unlike economic immigrants, refugees are now given substantial assitance from both the public and private sectors and are selected on some basis other than their economic ambitions and abilities or the transferability of their skills. The handling of these problems has been complicated by a piecemeal crisis-by-crisis approach to refugee policy. The recent refugee legislation, while a step in the right direction, does not represent a fundamental shift on refugee policy. US immigration policy must be considered in light of its effects on domestic policies as well, especially since immigrants tend to be concentrated in certain locales and wield considerable political and economic power. Some recommendations for new immigration policies include: 1) establish a point system for admission based solely on personal characteristics with a primary focus on the person's skills and without consideration to national or ethnic origin, 2) impose an immigration tax to capture some of the economic rent accorded those permitted to immigrate, 3) establish policies to facilitate temporary immigration and regulate the flow of temporary entrants, and 4) impose fines and brief imprisonment for apprehended illegal aliens.
Population policy perspectives in developing countries
This volume includes papers presented at a conference dealing with population policy perspectives in developing countries and held during December 1981. The conference theme was to incorporate the important aspects of population related matters from the aspect of governmental policy and community participation and to suggest a course of action for the future. The conference focused on population policy perspectives, relating to socioeconomic systems and population policy; fertility influencing policies; mortality influencing policies; and migration influencing policies. The papers in the 1st section discuss some of the problems arising from disparities in population trends, social structure, and policy implications. The common issue is the need for a policy for integrated development with population policy forming a part of such an integrated development policy. The following were among the issues emerging from the social, economic, and ecological systems analysis: the causal mechanism relating development efforts with motivation to regulate fertility as percevied at the individual level is viewed as a necessary link in the interrelations between development and population, policy makers must recognize that in a heterogeneous society this level of motivation is concomitantly and synergistically raised in response to a variety of development policies, and it is no longer considered adequate or useful to say that general development reduces fertility. The 2nd group of papers point out that there has been a desire on the part of most governments of the developing countries to reduce the present levels of population growth. Family planning programs are implemented more vigorously and monitored more closely. The 3rd group of papers covered 2 studies based on sample surveys. The paper "Fertility Differentials Among Migrants and Nonmigrants in Bombay" found that the migrants' wives had significantly higher fertility than nonmigrant wives. The other paper examined the impact of social structure on fertility of a small fishing community. The following were among the common issues arising from the papers on mortality influencing policies: there has been a spectacular reduction in general mortality levels in this region, but the levels are still high as reflected in the expectation of life; and progress in the reduction of mortality has slowed down in some populous countries like India in the past few years. The control of human reproduction has become accepted as legitimate for public and private agency policy, and programming national and international assistance in controlling fertility has increased. There is comparable awareness of the problems generated by the population explosion, urbanization, and its attendant growth, but there are no comparable policies and programs to deal with the problems stemming from rapid urbanization, migration, and maldistribution of population.
The U.S.-Mexico border: contraceptive use and maternal health care in perspective
A household probability survey was conducted during June-September 1979 of 5005 households in 51 selected countries in the 4 US border states of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. General criteria for inclusion of a country in the survey were: 1) proximity to the US-Mexico border, and 2) a Spanish surnamed head of household in at least 25% of households in the county according to the 1970 census. Interviews were conducted with 2135 Mexican American and Anglo women aged 15-44. Mexican Americans in the 4 border states have the highest fertility of any race or ethnic group in the US, with a cumulative fertility rate of 4.30 compared with 2.84 for the Anglos in that area, and this is associated with low socioeconomic status. An unwanted most recent live birth was more common among Mexican Americans than among Anglos, and a higher percentage of unwanted births was positively associated with older women, those with a larger number of live births, less education, and lower socioeconomic status. Contraceptive use in the border area was high for both ethnic groups and increased with parity but the percentages for use after the birth of the 1st child were higher for Anglos than for Mexican Americans. For currently married Mexican Americans, oral contraceptives (OCs) were the most commonly used contraceptives, followed by sterilization; for Anglos, the reverse was true. For both groups, female sterilization was more common than male sterilization; Anglo women who had completed 8-11 years of school had the largest percentage (2.3%) of unmet need. Of the ever-married Mexican Americans who were not using contraception, the largest number were in the group 34-44 years of age, had 4 or more children, were over 200% below the poverty level, had 0-7 years of school, were unemployed, had an unwanted last live birth, chose Spanish as their preferred language, and were born in the US. Only 1/4 of the currently married women in either ethnic group objected to nonmedical personnel dispensing nonmedical services, but fewer Anglo women were in favor of accepting medical methods from nonmedical personnel. Both groups received health care early for infants and all during pregnancy. For Mexican Americans, the rate of breastfeeding decreased during the period 1971-75 and 1976-79, while the reverse was true for Anglo women. The Mexico National Contraceptive Prevalence Survey conducted September to December of 1979 provided the following facts: 1) about 50% of married women of reproductive age were contraceptive users; 2) OCs were most commonly used contraceptive method and their use became less frequent as women increased in age and as the use of sterilization became more prevalent; 3) more than 50% of the women who used OCs obtained it from the private sector, usually a pharmacy and over 90% of those women who used injections or whose mates used the condom obtained supplies from private sector distributors; 4) knowledge of contraceptive methods varied slightly according to age of women with the 15-19 year and 40-44 year groups the least knowlegeable; and 5) almost all the women received prenatal care during their last pregnancy.
A geography of the third world
"This book outlines the major themes and issues in the geography of the Third World at a level appropriate for the needs of advanced students in secondary school and those in higher education who seek a general and informative introduction to development studies." The material is organized around several major themes, including population structure and growth, agriculture and the rural sector, urbanization and industrialization, patterns of internal linkage, development planning, and external relationships. (EXCERPT)
Analysis of maternity history data: a simulation experiment.
The analysis of maternity history data can provide important information about fertility trends in a population. However, such analysis is hindered by reporting error, particularly time-allocation error. Brass has proposed 2 methods to study the nature and extent of time-allocation error: 1) estimation of P/F ratios for each cohort marker and for each time interval in their reproductive life, and 2) fitting a mathematical model to the fertility data and studying the estimated values of the parameters of the model for different cohort markers and at different time intervals. This study aimed to examine the suitability of these 2 methods under certain known levels of fertility and time-allocation errors. A micro simulation model was constructed which delineated 12 populations with different values in terms of age-specific marital fertility rates and the chance of error. The number of births/woman occurring in different periods of time prior to the survey as well as the current age-specific fertility rates were obtained for all 12 populations for the following 4 cases: 1) no reporting error, 2) Brass-type reporting error, 3) Potter-type reporting error, and 4) random-type reporting error. Populations with constant or declining fertility and no time-allocation errors demonstrated a decline in beta values as time reaches into the past. The presence of time-allocation error disturbs this smooth trend, and the change in beta values over different time intervals becomes irregular. Thus, analysis of beta values can indicate whether the maternity history data contain time-allocation errors. Under conditions of constant fertility and no error, P/F ratios are clustered around the value of 1. For populations with declining fertility but no reporting error, the P/F ratios tend to be greater than unity. Even greater dispersion and asymmetry is noted with declining fertility and reporting error. The values also deviate from 1 in the presence of constant fertility and reporting error, although the distribution of P/F values appears symmetrical. It is recommended that the coefficient of variation be used to set up a discriminating point to classify a population as having a constant or declining trend in fertility.
Changes in natural fertility in India, 1959-1972
This paper examines the nature of changes in natural fertility in 11 major states in India at 2 points in time (1959 and 1972) during the process of modernizaiton and fertility transition. Survey data derived from the rural sample of the 1959 National Sample Survey and from the 1972 Sample Registration Villages were used. Age specific marital fertility schedules at these 2 points in time were evaluated in light of the 2 hypotheses suggested by the demographic literature regarding the effects of modernization on natural fertility: 1) a wide variation in levels of fertility tends to be observed and natural fertility tends to increase among the different populations experiencing modernization; and 2) despite the increase in natural fertility, the age pattern of fertility over time in the short run and over populations tends to remain constant. A substantial increase in the total marital fertility rate in 1972 compared with 1959 was noted in 8 of the 11 states. This increase was essentially due to an increase in natural fertility. However, contrary to the standard age pattern of natural fertility, the observed age patterns of fertility tilted to the right and the age-specific marital fertility rate in the 25-29 year age group rose substantially in some states relative to that at ages 20-24 years. States in which this tilting occurred in 1959 exhibited better socioeconomic conditions and greater cultural propensity for modernization than those states where tilting was noted only in 1972. As modernization proceeds, the destabilization in the age pattern is overcome and natural fertility seems to return to the standard pattern. Modernization is assumed to raise natural fertility levels by improving health and nutrition as well as uprooting cultural and social norms relating to traditional fertility-inhibiting practices such as prolonged lactation and intercourse taboos. At the same time, modernization is accompanied by age-specific increases in deliberate fertility regulation. A longterm decline in fertility requires a levelling off of the increase in natural fertility and an expansion in the process of fertility regulation.
Recent trends in the fertility of ASEAN countries--a comparative analysis
This study examined the phenomena underlying recent fertility trends in 5 ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines are considered to have the necessary socioeconomic and demographic conditions for a fertility decline, while Thailand and Indonesia have not yet attained an adequate level of development. Although a recent decline in fertility has been observed in all 5 countries, the onset of the decline and the decline itself vary. Singapore's fertility decline began in the late 1950s, when the crude birthrate dropped from 44.4/1000 in 1956 to 16.6 in 1977. The fertility decline in Malaysia started at the same time, but has been more moderate. There appears to have been no decline in the crude birthrate in the Philippines until 1970, followed by a drastic fall of 16.6% in the 1970-75 period. A similar pattern was observed in Thailand where the rate declined 18.6% in 1970-75 and in Indonesia where there was a 9% decrease. The proportion of births of order 5 and above to women age 30 years and over did not change in 1960-70, except in the case of Singapore; however, after 1970, this proportion declined in all the countries studied as a result of the upward shift in age at marriage and the use of family planning methods. It is suggested that the varying extent of fertility decline observed in these 5 countries reflects different levels of interaction between socioeconomic factors and the family planning program. Analysis of the components of the crude birthrate declines in the ASEAN countries indicates that no common factor is responsible. Changes in the age structure accounted for 55% of the decrease in Indonesia's rate in 1961-71, whereas changes in marital fertility rates accounted for 99% and 69% of the decrease in Singapore and Thailand, respectively. The maximum decline in crude birthrate was noted in Singapore, which has both high social standards and a strong family planning program. Although the Philippines and Malaysia have similar social standards, the decline was slower in the former country which has a less effective family planning program. These findings suggest that although a family planning program is required to accelerate the pace of the fertility decline, a minimum level of socioeconomic development is essential to sustain the decline.
Research on relationship between population and agricultural development
The challenge in developing countries is not only to increase agricultural productivity, but also to adopt strategies that will absorb surplus labor. This article reviews the literature on the interrelationship of agricultural development and population change in India. Although several studies have focused on the implications of population growth for food requirements and agricultural employment, there has been little research on the variations in agricultural productivity noted in the various districts of the country. Most analyses have attempted to explain productivity variations by separating the contributions of various inputs. For example, 1 study found that 80% of the total growth in crop productivity was attributable to 2 factors: expansion in area and changes in crop patterns. However, there is a need for macro-level studies which examine the impact of a region's demographic situation on its agricultural development. Another study found that the food surpluses noted in areas with a higher agricultural growth rate and larger irrigated areas resulted more from increased human effort and natural endowments than from modern inputs. High productivity areas were also observed to usurp more growth investments but absorb fewer workers than low productivity districts. Further research is required to determine whether agricultural change in a region largely reflects a community's efforts and its attitudes toward the adoption of new methods, and whether the human efforts and attitude result from the community's response to demographic pressures. It is also essential to study the impact of agricultural development on the demographic situation of regions where notable productivity increases have occurred.
Status of women and fertility: a socio-cultural analysis of regional variations in fertility in India
This paper used macro-level data from rural areas of India's 15 largest states to analyze the role played by women's status in regional variations in marital fertility and fertility regulation. Although traditions such as early marriage, the absence of property and inheritance rights, devaluation of female children, and lack of freedom of movement have tended to promote the subordination of women in India, women's sociocultural status shows considerable variation from region to region. Women's status is generally lowest in the northern region of the country, somewhat higher in the central and eastern states, and highest in the southern region. As hypothesized, a strong and negative association was found between the cultural status of women in a region and both observed fertility and the ratio of observed to natural fertility; conversely, higher cultural status exerted a positive effect on levels of fertility regulation. Regional variations in fertility were highly correlated with indices such as the practice of purdah, the sex ratio of infant and child mortality, proportion of the population favoring equal property rights for women, and total and nonagricultural labor force participation rates. The relationship between regional variations in fertility behavior and the cultural status of women was weakened more by indices relating specifically to the socioeconomic status of women than by general development indices. It is noted, however, that state-wise variations in fertility may be explained by a specific form of sociocultural development, primarily by regional variations in the cultural status and secondarily by the socioeconomic status of women. These findings suggest that policies aimed at raising the sociocultural status of women may have a greater effect on the reduction of fertility than family planning or more general development effors. A micro-level analysis is required to test the relative effects of these factors on fertility behavior.
Population policy, economic development and multinational corporations in Latin America: issues and impacts
Economic development in most Latin American countries has either failed to materialize or has been slow because the upper classes and government officials in these countries benefit from the existing underdevelopment. After World War 2, Latin America embarked on a program of import substitution which perpetuated a situation of economic dependency, structural unemployment, and massive rural-urban migration. As a result Latin America began to experience urbanization without industrialization. By 1955 in an effort to bring about economic development, many Latin American governments opened their doors to foreign investment and to multinational corporations (MNCs). But this policy, which was thought would create jobs and capital, has hurt the progress of economic development in Latin America. Multinationals earn disproportionately high returns from their Latin American investments and these returns are reinvested in developed, not developing countries. Thus Latin America has not benefitted and has become more dependent on foreign aid and loans and less able to repay those debts. 2 cases of this situation are presented, Brazil and Mexico. It has also become obvious that MNCs increasingly rely on women for their labor needs because women's wages are traditionally lower and they are portrayed as more tolerant of tedious work. The author concludes that there are structural tendencies inherent in the present global economy that perpetuate economic underdevelopment. To the extent that population policies aimed at containing population growth and directing population distribution are often adopted in response to such underdevelopment, it is not surprising that they are less than adequate as a national response to a global problem.
[Family policy vis-a-vis care and rearing functions in families of economically active young mothers, 1960-1982]
The relationship between family policy and the attitudes of mothers toward economic activity is examined. The data come from surveys conducted in Poland in 1961, 1977, and 1982. The results suggest that family policies can be developed that will encourage both fertility and the labor force participation of women. (summary in ENG, RUS) (ANNOTATION)
[About the convergence of population to a stable structure]
"The author presents the problem of analyzing asymptotic properties of the model of population reproduction as given in discrete form. This problem reduces to an analysis of properties of a projective matrix of the model and to determining conditions under which the population described by the model converges to a stable structure. As against the background of the existing literature on this subject the article gives a formal ordering of reasonings concerning the convergence of populations to a stable structure." In the second part of the article, the author gives a solution to the problem of determining the number of periods of time after which the population studied will attain the limiting stable structure under certain conditions. (summary in ENG, RUS) (EXCERPT)
[A fertility table based on parity]
Fertility tables based on parity are discussed by extending a model developed by Chin Long Chiang and Bea J. Van den Berg. Data from the 1976 Austrian micro-census are then used to calculate parity-specific fertility tables for 1966 and 1975. (summary in ENG, FRE) (ANNOTATION)
[Changing values and the wish to have children--a socio-psychological analysis of reproductive behavior]
A review of socio-psychological studies concerning changes in values and reproductive behavior is presented, and it is suggested that changing values may be a reason why the average number of children per couple is declining in the Federal Republic of Germany and other industrialized countries. A longitudinal study being conducted at the University of Munich is then described; this study is based on an explanatory model that implies that the individual values of men and women and the interaction of the couple are the main determinants of reproductive behavior. (summary in ENG, FRE)
[A comparison of the effects of changing age structure on the financing of social health insurance and of the social retirement system. A theoretical analysis]
The effect of changes in age structure in the Federal Republic of Germany over the next 10 years on the financial status of the compulsory health insurance and retirement schemes is examined. It is shown that these demographic changes will raise health insurance expenditures considerably and will lead to increases in the cost of retirement insurance. (summary in ENG) (ANNOTATION)
[Fertility in the Vaud region: 200 years of history]
Changes in fertility in the Vaud canton of Switzerland over the past 200 years are examined using a macro-demographic approach. A first section focuses on the situation before the demographic transition. The transition itself is then described, and its determinants are analyzed. Finally, fertility trends from 1940 to the present are examined, with consideration given to the fertility decline that has occurred since 1965. (ANNOTATION)
[Female employment and social security]
"This contribution endeavours to look into a number of contradictions relating to the employment of women and the problem of social security (old age and health insurance) as they have developed in the historical perspective as well as from the individual and social point of view....[An] attempt is made, by taking the Federal Republic of Germany as an example, to discuss the difficulties arising due to the conflicting influences of the demographic aging process as a result of the declining birth rate, the financing of social security in general and of the social security of women in particular." (summary in ENG, FRE) (EXCERPT)
[Population development and distribution in Cuba (using the results of the 1981 population census)]
A summary of the results of the 1981 census of Cuba is presented. Comparisons are made with selected data for 1960 and 1970, and variations in the rate of population growth at the provincial level are considered. (ANNOTATION)
Economic factors and mortality: some aspects of the Scottish case, 1950-1978
The relationship between economic factors and mortality is examined using official data for Scotland for the period 1950 to 1978. "Using an Almon Distributed lag scheme justified on a minimum mean squared error criterion, a weak but significant effect from lagged unemployment can be detected implying that unemployment has some link with mortality rates with the effect arising over a period of ten years or more, with its estimated size quite sensitive to the type of error process allowed for." The results indicate that for males up to age 35 and females up to age 55 unemployment is significantly associated with a fall in mortality, while for older age groups the significant association is with a rise in mortality. (EXCERPT)
Recent mortality trends in Australia (1981 Census Project--Paper 2)
This is one of a series of papers containing preliminary analyses of the results of the 1981 census of Australia. The major objective of the present study is to examine changes in mortality that have occurred following World War II, with particular emphasis on the 1970s. Consideration is given to mortality differences by sex, race, birthplace, occupation, and geographic region. Attention is also given to variations in causes of death over time and by age group. (ANNOTATION)
Changing distribution and age structure of birthplace groups in Australia, 1976-1981 (1981 Census Project--Paper 5)
This is one of a series of papers containing preliminary analyses of data from the 1981 census of Australia. The present paper is concerned with changes in the size, composition, spatial distribution, and age structure of the population born outside Australia during the period 1976 to 1981. (ANNOTATION)
Population projection in the context of population policy
A critique of the traditional component method of population projection is first presented. An alternative method of projecting future population growth is suggested that takes into account the population policy in effect and its plausible effects on birth, death, and migration rates. The technique is illustrated using the example of India for the years 1981 to 1991. The author also shows how the method can be used to prepare district-level projections and how these projections can be used to develop crude birth rate targets of use to population policymakers.
Structural patterns of internal migration in India and Sri Lanka: log-linear modelling approach
"An attempt has been made in this chapter to use log-linear modelling in order to study the structural pattern or stability of interregional migration flows over time in India and Sri Lanka. The log-linear analysis is preceded by a conventional analysis on the levels of inmigration, outmigration and net migration in the respective areas." Data from the 1971 census of India and the 1946 and 1971 censuses of Sri Lanka are used. (EXCERPT)
Computers in demography
A broad review of the various applications of computers in demography over the past two decades is presented. Consideration is given to micro-simulation studies, analysis of survey data, storage and analysis of census data, population projections, and estimates of demographic parameters. (ANNOTATION)
Bombay and its in-migration
Preliminary results from a sample survey on migration to Bombay, India, are presented, with emphasis on the mechanisms of migration to and from Bombay and on the impact of migration on family structure. The survey, which was carried out in 1979, concerned some 5,000 migrants. The characteristics of the migrants are described, and their motives for migration are analyzed. (ANNOTATION)
Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains in India: a study of their growth and distribution
Trends in the growth, distribution, and concentration of Sikhs, Buddhists, and Jains are examined at state and district levels in India using data from the 1951, 1961, and 1971 censuses. Consideration is given to the nature and causes of demographic change in each of these three religious groups. (ANNOTATION)
Marriage behaviour and demographic transition among Parsis
The population dynamics of the Parsi population of India are examined for various periods from 1871 to 1982. The data are taken from censuses and a special survey conducted in 1982 in the Bombay area, the major area of Parsi concentration. The factors affecting the relatively slow, and presently negative, growth of this population are identified as a high proportion of females remaining unmarried, a high mean age at marriage, and lower fertility. Explanations of these factors are considered. (ANNOTATION)
[Anthroponymy and demographic behavior: the Burgundian household censuses of the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries]
An examination of medieval household censuses as a source of demographic data is presented. The author notes that although these censuses do not contain data on individuals, they contain information on the family name of the houshold head. Consideration is given to how changes in these names over time can be used to deduce information on mortality, migration, and the development of lineages. These ideas are tested using data from fourteenth- and fifteenth-century household censuses from Burgundy, now in France. (summary in ENG) (ANNOTATION)
[Mortality in Mexico, 1922-1975]
A review of mortality trends in Mexico for the period 1922 to 1975 is presented. The approach is interdisciplinary, involving the disciplines of public health, medicine, and demography. The work consists of 15 studies by various authors on topics including general mortality; causes of death and variations by age, sex, and time period; mortality differentials by geographic region; infant mortality; and causes of mortality, such as poverty, the work place, and other social, economic, and cultural factors. (ANNOTATION)
[Population and housing census, 1980. Vol. 6:2. Economically active daytime population]
The results of the 1980 census of Sweden are presented concerning the daytime economically active population. Comparative data are included from the 1970 and 1975 censuses. The data are presented for the whole country, counties, metropolitan areas, and municipalities. (summary in ENG) (ANNOTATION)
[The tragedy of France: a challenge to overcome, not a calamity]
This collection of papers by various authors is the product of a conference on the demographic situation in France, held in Melun, France, in 1982 and organized by the Association pour la Recherche et l'Information Demographiques (APRD). In the first part of the book, a summary of the recent demographic history that has led to the current demographic crisis in France is presented, and the role of immigration in France today is discussed, with emphasis on its effect on the country's demography. Consideration is then given to the implications of the present demographic situation with regard to population replacement, aging, unemployment, and population degradation. Chapters are also included on the future of agriculture in France, the crisis of the family and family policy, and the demographic effects of current medical practices. In the second part of the book, consideration is given to the 1982 census results and to the policy options available to alleviate the present unfavorable demographic situation.
Migration in Botswana: patterns, causes and consequences. Final report of the National Migration Study
This report, which is in three volumes, presents the results of the National Migration Study carried out between 1977 and 1982 in Botswana. An outline of Botswana and its migration system is presented in Volume 1, which is the summary report. This volume also includes a summary of the patterns, causes, and consequences of migration in the 1970s and considers policies and future planning for migration. The remaining two volumes consist of a series of 14 papers in which various authors analyze the results of the migration study. Topics covered include migration patterns, rural settlement, urban migration, and migration determinants; migration and employment factors, schooling, agricultural production, remittances, and the roles of women; migration and remote areas; migration to freehold farms and farms in South Africa; and migration to the mines in South Africa.
Studies in Jewish demography. Survey for 1972-1980
This is the third in a series of publications with the same title, issued jointly by the Institute of Contemporary Jewry in Jerusalem and the Institute of Jewish Affairs in London. The present volume covers studies in Jewish demography for the period 1972-1980. It includes articles on the evolution and projection of the world Jewish population, a new estimate of the Greater Paris Jewish population, and data on diaspora Jewish population from official censuses. The work also includes a selected annotated bibliography of relevant studies, arranged alphabetically by continent and country, as well as a section containing summaries of current research in various countries.
Papers in Jewish demography, 1981. Proceedings of the demographic sessions held at the 8th World Congress of Jewish Studies, Jerusalem, August 1981
These are the proceedings of the demographic sessions held at the 8th World Congress of Jewish Studies, Jerusalem, in August 1981. Three general papers provide an overview of research on Jewish demography; an analysis of world Jewish population trends, projections, and their implications; and a consideration of Zionism and population. The next two sections contain historical demographic studies of Poland, France, Italy, Germany, and the United States, as well as a selection of country reports concerning the United States, South Africa, and Romania. Sections are also included on marriage and assimilation in the United States and the United Kingdom; fertility in the United States and Israel; internal migration and urban ecology in the United States, France, Poland, and Israel; and Jewish education, identity, and community organization in the United States. Some consideration is given to the international aspects of these issues as well.
Births, marriages, divorces, and deaths for 1983
Provisional totals of births, marriages, divorces, and deaths are presented for the United States for 1983. "These preliminary figures show fewer births, infant deaths, marriages, and divorces and more deaths in 1983 than in 1982." The data are presented for the whole country, regions, and states. (EXCERPT)
The changing population
This chapter on population is from a geographical textbook designed for the undergraduate level. An analysis of population trends in the United Kingdom over the last three to five decades is presented, with emphasis on the changing spatial distribution of the population. Consideration is also given to the analysis of fertility, mortality, and international migration trends. The data are from a variety of published and official sources, excluding the 1981 census. Topics covered include urban population decentralization, regional fertility and mortality differentials, and international migration, including the spatial distribution of immigrants. The implications of slow population growth are also considered.
Marriage patterns among the German-speaking peoples of northern Italy: geographical distance between residences of partners prior to marriage
The geographical distance between marriage partners is explored using data for German-speaking isolates in northern Italy. Comparisons are made with Italian-speaking populations living in the same region and with other population isolates elsewhere in the world. (ANNOTATION)
[False conceptions of socio-biological ethnography and female infanticide in India]
The field of socio-biological ethnography is criticized because it ignores cultural patterns and instead discusses selected issues as products of natural selection. As an illustration, the author focuses on a series of essays by Mildred Dickemann concerning female infanticide in India. (summary in ENG) (ANNOTATION)
[Peru: some characteristics of the population. Provisional results of the census of July 12, 1981]
A summary of the population characteristics of Peru is presented based on the provisional results of the 1981 census and on results of earlier censuses for 1940, 1961, and 1972. Data are included on population growth; population density; population distribution by region, department, province and district, urban and rural areas, and departmental capitals; and population by sex. (ANNOTATION)
Demographic trends in Hong Kong 1971-82: an analysis based on vital registration statistics of births, marriages, and deaths and on census results
Trends in births, deaths, and marriages in Hong Kong are analyzed for the period from 1971 to 1982. The purpose of the report is to update and expand an earlier publication covering the period 1970 to 1973. The report is based on official vital statistics data supplemented with census data where appropriate. Consideration is given to the effect of changes in demographic variables on population structure by age and sex. (ANNOTATION)
[Suicide in Berlin]
Trends in suicide in Berlin from the mid-nineteenth century to the present are analyzed, and comparisons are made with data for other cities, the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic, and selected other countries. Consideration is given to variations in suicide by month, district of residence, social status, sex, marital status, motivation for suicide, religion, nationality, age group, and method of suicide. (ANNOTATION)
[The population of France in 1982: the age pyramid]
The first results from the 1982 census of France are presented concerning the age distribution of the population. Comparative data from 1962, 1968, and 1975 are provided. Data are also included on differences in age distribution by department. (ANNOTATION)
[The population of France in 1982: the foreign population]
The first results of the 1982 census of France are presented concerning the foreign population. Comparative data are included for selected years from 1921. Data are provided on the country of origin of the foreign population by major age group, distribution of the foreign population by department, and distribution of the economically active foreign population by socioeconomic category. (ANNOTATION)
[The population of France in 1982: households and families]
The first results from the 1982 census of France are presented concerning households and families. Data are included on type of household, family size, and family possessions such as telephones and cars. Some retrospective data for 1962, 1968, and 1975 are provided. (ANNOTATION)
[The population of France in 1982. The 1982 census: the 1-in-20 sample]
A preliminary analysis of data from the 1-in-20 sample of returns from the 1982 census of France is presented. Population trends since 1962 are reviewed, and differences in urban and rural population growth are discussed. (ANNOTATION)
Functional regions for the population census of Great Britain
"This [paper] summarizes an attempt to come to grips with methodological and practical problems of defining a set of functional urban regions for use in the 1981 Population Census of Britain." The authors conclude that a "daily urban system" is the best unit for presentation of spatial data, and an operational algorithm is developed in order to identify "daily urban systems" in the United Kingdom. The algorithm is applied to 1971 census data and compared with other regionalizations. The future availability of statistics for the recommended areas is considered. (EXCERPT)
Third-world urbanization and international assistance
A summary of the situation regarding urbanization in developing countries is first presented by drawing on the published literature. Variations in the rate of urbanization around the world are noted, and the impact of rural-urban migration and urban growth on urban poverty and employment is considered. The author examines urban development strategies under these conditions and the role that international assistance could play in helping to resolve such urban problems. (ANNOTATION)
[Linguistic transfers in Canada]
First results from the 1981 census of Canada are used to analyze linguistic transfers, primarily between French- and English-speakers, in Quebec and in the rest of Canada. Although the percentage of French-speakers in Quebec has increased since 1971, the author notes that most people whose mother tongue is neither French nor English are still assimilated into the English-speaking population, despite legislation favoring French. With regard to Canada as a whole, French continues to lose ground. This paper is reprinted from Langue et Societe (Ottawa, Canada), No. 11, Autumn 1983, pp. 14-22.
Cities of the world: world regional urban development
"This volume is a study in comparative world urban development." The book is designed as a textbook at the undergraduate level and consists of a series of contributions from different authors. Following an introduction on world urban development, chapters are devoted to urbanization in each of the world's 10 major regions. Each regional chapter is built around four major themes: evolution of urban systems and settlements, major representative urban centers, major contemporary urban problems, and solutions to urban problems. A final chapter considers cities of the future.
[1981 census of Canada. Federal electoral districts: population, occupied private dwellings, private households and census and economic families in private households. Selected social and economic characteristics]
This bulletin provides a compendium of the most frequently used data collected in the 1981 census of Canada for 282 federal electoral districts. The data are on a 20 percent sample basis and concern population, households, families, and housing. (ANNOTATION)
[1981 census of Canada. Population. Religion: Canada, provinces, urban size groups, rural non-farm and rural farm]
Data on religion from the 1981 census of Canada are presented. The data are provided by sex for Canada and the provinces and are broken down into seven main groupings: Catholic, Protestant, Eastern Orthodox, Jewish, Eastern Non-Christian, Para-religious Groups, and No Religious Preference. More detailed data for the main religious groups are provided by sex and age for the urban, rural farm, and rural nonfarm populations. (ANNOTATION)
[1981 census of Canada. Population. Mother tongue, official language and home language: Canada, provinces, urban size groups, rural non-farm and rural farm]
Data from the 1981 census of Canada are provided on mother tongue, official language, and home language. The data are presented by age and sex for Canada, provinces, urban areas, and both farm and nonfarm rural populations. (ANNOTATION)
Some aspects of urbanisation in Egypt
The main processes of urbanization in Egypt are examined using a variety of data from official sources. Topics covered include urban population growth, components of urban growth, the level and pace of urbanization, city size and structure, the growth of cities, and urban primacy. The authors conclude that the main cause of urban growth is natural increase, rather than rural-urban migration, and that the urban population is growing faster than the total or rural populations. The need for both family planning and regional planning policies is stressed. (ANNOTATION)
[Urbanization and population development in the Turkish regions]
An analysis of population trends in modern Turkey is presented, with particular attention to urbanization. Consideration is given to regional variations in mean age at first marriage in rural and urban areas and to regional variations in fertility, desired family size, and knowledge and practice of contraception. (ANNOTATION)
Patterns of mortality in Freetown, Sierra Leone.
A demographic and spatial analysis of mortality in Freetown, Sierra Leone, is presented, with emphasis on data for the census years 1963 and 1974. Consideration is first given to the availability of data and their quality. The authors then examine geographic variations in mortality within the city, age- and sex-specific death rates, the major causes of death, and death certification. (ANNOTATION)
An analysis of the effects of suicide prevention facilities on suicide rates in the United States
Suicide rates for the period 1968 to 1973 in U.S. counties that added suicide prevention facilities are compared with rates in counties that did not do so. "An association of centers with the reduction of suicides in young white females emerged. This finding was replicated on a different set of counties for a different time span. The results are discussed in light of the fact that this group constitutes the major clients of these centers." (EXCERPT)
Coronary heart disease mortality trends in Minnesota, 1960-80: the Minnesota Heart Survey
"Age-adjusted mortality rates and trends from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Minnesota for the years 1960 to 1980 differed among eight health service areas. Regression of ten socioeconomic and demographic factors and intensive care and coronary care unit beds on area CHD mortality levels and slopes revealed a significant positive association only for levels of welfare income-maintenance assistance with CHD mortality levels; there were no associations with trends." (EXCERPT)
Incomplete data in sample surveys. Vol. 1: report and case studies
This is one of three volumes that represent the results of work undertaken by the Panel on Incomplete Data. The panel was set up in 1977 by the Committee on National Statistics within the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Research Council in order to undertake a comprehensive review of the literature on survey incompleteness in sample surveys and to explore ways of improving the methods of dealing with it. This first volume includes the report of the panel and 10 case studies concerning incomplete data. The report includes sections on problems of incomplete data, measuring and reporting non-response, a review of case studies, and a review of relevant theory. The primary geographic focus of the case studies is on the United States.
Incomplete data in sample surveys. Vol. 2: theory and bibliographies
This is one of three volumes that represent the results of work undertaken by the Panel on Incomplete Data. The panel was set up in 1977 by the Committee on National Statistics within the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Research Council in order to undertake a comprehensive review of the literature on survey incompleteness in sample surveys and to explore ways of improving the methods of dealing with it. The second volume contains the papers on theory and two bibliographies. An initial paper considers the historical perspective. Five papers are then presented on data collection, dealing with callbacks, follow-ups, and repeated telephone calls; the impact of substitution on survey estimates; quota sampling; randomized response techniques; and handling missing data by network sampling. The next two papers focus on non-response and double sampling, covering the randomization approach and the Bayesian approach. A section on weighting and imputation methods covers conceptual issues in the presence of non-response, weighting adjustment for unit non-response, hot-deck procedures, and the use of multiple imputations to handle non-response. Sections are also included on imputation methodology concerning total survey error and on superpopulation models for non-response, including both the ignorable case and the non-ignorable case. A selected annotated bibliography is provided, with keywords and phrases available as an index; a separate unannotated bibliography deals with non-response and related topics. The primary geographic focus is on the United States.
Incomplete data in sample surveys. Vol. 3: proceedings of the symposium
This is one of three volumes that represent the results of work undertaken by the Panel on Incomplete Data. The panel was set up in 1977 by the Committee on National Statistics within the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Research Council in order to undertake a comprehensive review of the literature on survey incompleteness in sample surveys and to explore ways of improving the methods of dealing with it. The third volume consists of the proceedings of a Symposium on Incomplete Data, held August 10-11, 1979, in Washington, D.C. The symposium was intended to augment the range of topics covered in the panel's work, to incorporate more current research, and to provide a forum for interested people other than panel members. The first two papers concern a framework for studying incomplete data, with reference to the experience in Asia and the Pacific; and Norwegian experiences concerning the causes and effects of non-response. The next section of papers focuses on aspects of design with regard to anticipation of non-response and imputation, informed consent, and reduction of the respondent burden. Two theoretical sessions include papers on estimating finite population totals from incomplete sample data, the use of statistical models to cope with non-response, the comparison of domains in the presence of non-response, and Bayesian procedures for survey design where there is non-response. Sections are also included on computer methods assuming likelihoods, an expanded survey error model and adjustment procedures, issues in imputation and public policy experiments, and hot-deck methods and inference. The primary geographic emphasis is on the United States.
Changing cancer mortality patterns in the rural United States
"An analysis of cancer mortality trends controlled for age, sex, and race for United States counties was made for the period 1950-1975. A strong trend toward convergence of cancer mortality rates is seen across the nation for almost every type of cancer, even in the most rural of counties. The plausible reasons for this change are discussed. They include the urban pollution factor, changes in medical practices and reporting, changes in smoking, alcohol consumption, and nutrition, and population migration." (EXCERPT)
[Survey of Migration to Santo Domingo and Santiago: general information]
The results of a 1978 survey of internal migration to Santo Domingo and the province of Santiago, Dominican Republic, are analyzed, with special emphasis on magnitude, trends, causes, and places of origin. Information is included on survey objectives and methodology, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population of each area, principal characteristics of migratory flows, rates and determinants of migration, and adaptation and social mobility of migrants at the place of destination. (ANNOTATION)
[Cohabitation without marriage--marriage and births]
"In this article, the interaction among cohabitation without marriage, marriage and the two first childbirths for Norwegian women is analysed by life table methods. The main emphasis is on investigating the effects of cohabitation on marriage and fertility." Data are from the Norwegian Fertility Survey of 1977. The findings indicate that "consensual unions are lasting longer than before due to falling marriage rates among cohabiting women. But consensual unions have only to a very small extent replaced marriages. Marriage has kept its role as the framework around the first years of life of the firstborn. First birth rates in consensual unions have been stable over the cohorts in [the] study, and at a much lower level than comparable marital first birth rates. Women who are not cohabiting with anybody have the lowest first birth rates compared to the rates of cohabiting women both in consensual unions and in marriages." (summary in ENG) (EXCERPT)
Urbanisation patterns of India at the turn of the twentieth century
The patterns of urbanization in India in 1901 are analyzed using census data. Consideration is given to the distributional pattern of towns as well as to regional variations in levels of urbanization. A general picture of low urbanization, with about 10 percent of the population living in urban areas, and of a preponderance of small towns emerges from the study. (ANNOTATION)
[Migration, social mobility, and cultural identity: facts and hypotheses about the Portuguese case]
Social mobility and cultural factors affecting Portuguese migration patterns are discussed, with emphasis on Portuguese emigrants in other European countries. An increase in migration since the 1960s is noted, particularly from the north and central regions of the country. Problems faced by emigrants are considered, and the problems of return migration and reintegration into Portuguese society are also reviewed. (ANNOTATION)
Census of India, 1981. Series 1: India. Paper 1 of 1983: census evaluation study
The results of a census evaluation study undertaken following the 1981 census of India are presented. The emphasis of the evaluation is on determining the extent of age misreporting at the younger ages, with the aim of improving the quality of data in future censuses. Consideration is given to differences in age misreporting by region. (ANNOTATION)
Projections of population growth at the older ages
Projections of the elderly population of the United States up to the year 2050 are summarized. The projections are presented separately for males and females aged 65 and over, 65-74, 75-84, and 85 and over. Selected characteristics of the elderly, including race, marital status, family status, and labor force status, are also considered. (ANNOTATION)
[Demography in historical perspective]
The development of demographic studies at the University of Amsterdam since 1900 is described. The paper includes an outline of the history of academic demography in the Netherlands as a whole from 1900 to 1980. (ANNOTATION)
Census of Population, 1980: Number of Workers by County of Residence by County of Work [MRDF]
This file contains 146,381 logical records (with a logical record length of 54 characters) and comes with technical documentation. It includes summary 1980 census data on all persons in the United States and Puerto Rico who were employed and at work during the census reference week. "The file comprises three types of records. Record 1 provides number of workers identified by areas of residence and work. Records 2 and 3 correlate geographic codes used in record 1 with their alphabetic name and type of area (county, parish, municipio, independent city, town) or MSA/PMSA designation." Geographic areas covered include counties or equivalent areas in the non-New England states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, as well as minor civil divisions in the New England states. (EXCERPT)
[The Dutch on their population development]
The results of a survey of 952 adults in the Netherlands are presented. The survey focused on opinions concerning population developments. Topics covered include population trends, demographic aging, population policy, and quality of life. (ANNOTATION)
[The projected natural growth of the Black population of the Pretoria-Witwatersrand Vereeniging area from 1980 to 2020]
Data from the 1980 census of South Africa are used to project future urbanization trends in the Pretoria-Witwatersrand Vereeniging region. Particular attention is paid to the demands that the projected growth of the Black population will make on natural resources, such as water, and social services. (ANNOTATION)
[Demography and social problems in Algeria]
A review of current population trends in Algeria is presented. Sections are included on fertility, mortality, projections, spatial distribution, employment and economic development, and the development of emigration. Some social problems associated with demographic factors are also considered, such as education, housing, and food supplies. (ANNOTATION)
Metropolitan growth and population development at the national level
The importance of treating urban populations as heterogeneous when making national population forecasts is the main theme of this paper. "It hypothesizes that large metropolitan areas exhibit specific patterns of migration, age composition, and fertility when compared with urban areas as a whole. In particular, such areas are characterized by relatively low levels of reproduction." The impact of the urbanization process on demographic change at the national level is emphasized. The authors examine the demographic structure of large metropolitan areas in highly urbanized countries and present comparisons with the structure of the total urban population. They then focus on the case of a developing country, the Republic of Korea, for which alternative patterns of urban development are considered. Issues concerning policies of urbanization and population redistribution are also discussed. Comments by T. R. Lakshmanan (pp. 39-41) and Ahmed Seifelnasr (pp. 42-3) are also included. (EXCERPT)
Migration and its implications for urban development
Four theoretical concepts frequently found in the migration literature are critically analyzed by applying them to the study of migration and urbanization patterns in Bangladesh. The theoretical concepts considered include the socioeconomic approach, the rural development approach, an approach based on the sexually selective nature of migration flows, and the primary event approach. The restricted validity of these theories for explaining migration patterns in Bangladesh is demonstrated, and a case is made for taking a broader approach to migration analysis. Comments by Jacques Ledent (pp. 82-4), Ingvar Holmberg (pp. 85-8), and Frans J. Willekens (p. 89) are included.
[Actual infant mortality compared with legal infant mortality]
Recent trends in infant mortality in Spain are analyzed, with a focus on the extent to which actual rates differ from rates based on death registration statistics. The effect on death registration of different definitions of infant death is examined. (ANNOTATION)
[Probability methods in demography]
The use of probability methods in demography is investigated. Chapters are included on probability theory; distribution indicators in demography; studies of dependence among demographic phenomena; probability indexes in mortality, marriage, and fertility tables; probability forecasting and modeling of demographic phenomena; statistical verification of demographic hypotheses; and the probability approach to migration studies. (ANNOTATION)
[Social-demographic structure: the urban population and its employment]
The demographic and social structure of the urban population of the USSR is examined, with particular reference to employment. Consideration is given to trends in urban development, internal migration, and population growth. The occupational qualifications of the urban population are discussed, and a methodology for manpower planning is described. (ANNOTATION)
European immigration and ethnicity in the United States and Canada: a historical bibliography
This bibliography is derived from the data base America: History and Life and includes some 4,000 abstracts of journal articles cited between 1973 and 1979. The bibliography is limited to European immigration to the United States and Canada from the colonial period to the present. The arrangement is by country, ethnic group, and topic. A comprehensive index combining subjects and authors is included. Sections are also included on sources and general studies, the response to immigration, contemporary ethnicity in the United States, and French-English relations in Canada.
[Births, infant nutrition, and infant mortality in different regions during the nineteenth century]
A general review of the literature concerning the relationship of breast-feeding to fertility and infant mortality in Belgium and the Netherlands in the nineteenth century is presented. Consideration is given to the differences among regions and to changes over time. The author suggests that breast-feeding differentials were too small to produce significant differences in fertility and infant mortality and that other factors were primarily responsible for the differences observed. These factors included drinking water supplies, malaria, and fecundability. (ANNOTATION)
[The breast-feeding hypothesis as an explanation for regional differentials in fertility and infant mortality: the Netherlands and Belgium during the middle of the nineteenth century]
The relationship of breast-feeding to marital fertility and infant mortality in Belgium and the Netherlands during the nineteenth century is examined. The author assesses the alternative hypotheses of E. W. Hofstee and C. Vandenbroecke et al. concerning the relative impact of breast-feeding or other factors on differentials in infant mortality and fertility. He concludes that differences in breast-feeding were significant but were made more significant in combination with the other factors causing mortality and fertility differences. Thus, it is not a choice between alternative hypotheses, but rather a combination of both that yields the best explanation. (summary in ENG)
[Infant and child mortality in Belgium and the Netherlands in a secular perspective]
Reasons for the variations in infant mortality in Belgium and the Netherlands in the nineteenth century are explored. The authors develop the hypothesis that these differences were primarily caused by variations in breast-feeding practices and postpartum amenorrhea among geographic regions. (ANNOTATION)
[Is the third wave of Soviet emigration coming to an end?]
An analysis of the cultural life of migrants from the USSR in France is presented. The results suggest that since 1980 there have been both quantitative and qualitative changes in migrant opinions that indicate that the present flow of migrants from the USSR is declining substantially. (summary in ENG) (ANNOTATION)
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