[The development of fertility in the 1960s in Togo, 1961-1971]
Total fertility rate in Togo went from 228/1000 in 1961 to 179/1000 in 1971, or a decrease of 21%; at the same time birth rate went from 55/1000 to 39/1000, or a decrease of 29%. Such a decrease in fertility and birth rates in only 10 years seems to be too important to be totally correct. This study applies the Brass technics to the same data, the 1961 and 1971 censuses, to recalculate birth and fertility rate for Togo. The Brass method is based on 2 hypotheses: 1) that fertility has remained constant in the recent past, and 2) that there is no important correlation between fertility and mortality and between mortality and migration. Adjustment of data shows an overestimation of 7.2% in the fertility rate for 1961, and an underestimation of 15.4% for 1971. Errors were probably due to a misinterpretation of the period of reference of 12 months prior to both censuses, and to a lack of precision on the part of older women in remembering the exact number of living children. Probable causes for the decrease in natality and fertility are: 1) decrease in infant mortality which went from 127/1000 in 1961 to 91/1000 in 1971, 2) increase in the per capita income and in school enrollment, and 3) a decrease in polygamous marriages and an increase in female age at 1st marriage.
Data collection. 1. National systems.
The 3 major data collection systems are population censuses, civil registration systems, and sample surveys. Population censuses have 4 features: 1) individual enumeration of all units, 2) universality within a well-defined territory, 3) simultaneity, and 4) defined periodicity. Data from censuses can be analyzed in terms of statistics of persons, married couples, families, and households for a wide variety of geographical units. Topics to be covered vary, but are usually drawn from the following: 1) geographic and migration characteristics, 2) household and family characteristics, 3) age, sex, marital status, citizenship, religion, language, ethnicity, 4) fertility and mortality information, 5) educational attainment and literacy, and 6) employment status, occupation and income. Census results can provide a frame for sample surveys and can be used to estimate future population size. Civil registration systems are compulsory legal records pertaining to birth, death, fetal death, marriage, divorce, annulment, judicial separation, adoption, legitimation and recognition. Priority topics for inclusion are date and place of occurrence, date of registration, place of usual residence, sex of child born, legitimacy status, weight at birth, mother's age at birth, cause of death, number of previous fetal deaths, age of divorced persons, number of dependent children, and duration of marriage. Experience has shown that civil registration is the only reliable method for obtaining a continuous and current record of events occurring througout a period since it is legally compulsory in most areas. Sample surveys defy concise definition due to varying methodologies and organizational origin: they can be carried out ad hoc or on a permanent basis, by government or private organizations. Sample surveys are necessary for obtaining population data that might not otherwise be available. Intercensal household sample surveys can complement census data. Another source of demographic information is the population register, maintained for legal purposes, and recording vital events such as migration. All statistical investigations have a time reference on the basis of which data can be classified into stock (state of affairs at a given point in time) or flow (changes of state) data. Any good data collection system should contain a self-evaluation program to estimate the accuracy of results and identify errors. Types of errors are: 1) variable, 2) bias, such as the systematic heaping of age reports on certain preferred digits, 3) sampling and nonsampling errors, and 4) coverage and content errors relating to misreporting of area or characteristics surveyed. Estimation of errors can be done through demographic analysis or dual collection estimation. The integrated approach coordinates the various systems to provide the most comprehensive information possible.
Fertility regulation in the male: recent developments.
The progress that has been made in 3 major areas of fertility regulation in the male are reviewed: disruption of sperm formation either by a direct action on the testis or by interference with the hormonal milieu necessary for spermatogenesis; interference with epididymal maturation of sperm; and interruption of sperm transport. It is now well established that both follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH) are required for full spermatogenesis and that the action of LH is most likely manifested by the stimulation of Leydig cells to produce and maintain high intratesticular concentration of testosterone. The demonstration that luteinizing hormone releasing hormone (LH-RH) is a decapeptide and stimulates the release of both LH and FSH had led to extensive studies to develop analogues of LH-RH that would compete for receptor sites within the pituitary but impair instead of stimulating the secretion of FSH and LH. Thus far no potent "blocking" analogue has been developed, though some structural modifications of LH-RH can compete with that substance and block its action. Considerable progress has occurred in the purification of FSH and LH and in the techniques for raising specific antisera to these hormones in animals. The concept that a specific inhibitor of FSH secretion is produced by the gonads has now received considerable support. In relation to sperm formation attention is also directed to steroid-induced suppression of gonadotropins, the use of testosterone, the use of gestagen-androgen combinations, and direct suppression of spermatogenesis. Though progress has been made in understanding the physiology of epididymal function, no compound free of toxic effects has yet been developed that will interfere with epididymal maturation. No new significant developments have occurred in the area of interruption of sperm transport to provide alternative contraceptive strategies. Currently only 2 techniques are available for widespread control of male fertility, i.e., condoms and vasectomy. Of the numerous hormonal methods evaluated, the only effective compounds offering any prospects for availability in the near future are testosterone alone or in combination with medroxyprogesterone acetate. The need for parenteral administration, the failure to suppress spermatogenesis completely in all men, and the long time for suppression and recovery of spermatogenesis, represent the negative aspects of these prospective methods.
Clinical trial of gossypol as a male antifertility agent.
Gossypol was first used in a clinical trial in 1972 as a fertility control agent. Subsequent trials have allowed scientists to arrive at the optimum dosage (20 mg/day, for 60-75 days followed by a maintenance dose of 50 mg/week) to reduce side effects. The most common side effects reported are fatigue, gastrointestinal symptoms, decreased libido and potency, dizziness, and dryness in the mouth. Most occur in the loading phase and are transient. The most serious side effect, hypokalemic paralysis, occurred in 66 cases; recovery was prompt in most cases after potassium repletion. With the optimal doses of gossypol, it usually takes between 2-3 months to achieve necrospermia or sperm count below 4 million/ml. Electron microscopy reveals a variety of changes in the spermatozoa which are no longer visible after discontinuation of gossypol and recovery of sperm count. The follow-up semen analysis in 2067 cases indicates that 73.68% of the cases were reversible with a sperm count over 4 million/ml, 16.4% had sperm but below 4 million/ml, and 9.92% were azoospermic. The shorter the duration of gossypol administration the higher the recovery rate. A duration of less than 2 years seems optimal for fertility control. A variety of other tests and examinations were carried out with obtained values all within the normal limits. 266 pregnancies in the wives of subjects occurred after withdrawal of gossypol or during the treatment regimes. Gossypol is very effective but more research must be done to reduce side effects and increase reversibility after treatment withdrawal.
Great expectations: America and the baby boom generation
The generation of the baby boom is the subject of this book. It is the tale of the group of Americans who have changed the society more than any other. The change began after World War 2, when the 1st boom baby was born. It will continue until sometime after the middle of the 21st century. The baby boom is and will continue to be history's decisive generation. The baby boom generation is the biggest, richest, and the best-educated that America has ever produced. The boom generation has simultaneously shaped the lives of all of the individuals within it. Born into the biggest generation in history, they have been forever affected, and often adversely, by that fact. The attempt is made in this volume to determine what the baby boom is doing to America and to itself. In essence, this is a generational biograpy. It examines history from the perspective of a single generation as it ages. What it reveals is an America since World War 2 dealing with the growth strains of a single generation. Almost every social and economic issue facing America at this time has a population dimension and every population dimension has a baby-boom dimension. This argument rests on 3 different notions about generations: 1) the idea of a "generation" is a useful way of looking at history; 2) a generation is the primary agent of social change; and 3) the impact of a generation, whether on the individuals within it or on the larger culture, is directly related to its size. These assumptions--that a generation is worth study, that a generation is the carrier of social change, and that the size of a generation is its most crucial characteristic--are the ideas that set this book in motion.
Morality and population policy
The population problem is actually several problems. Central to them is the moral issue of what duty the present genertion has to future generations. Consequently, the population problem needs to be analyzed in light of moral theory. The central moral problem takes two basic forms today: the quality of life of presently existing people may be seriously affected by national programs of population control, and the exact analogue of the early spread of public health measures to less developed countries remains. This volume addresses 3 moral problems. Views of the population problem, or whether a problem actually exists, differ greatly. At one extreme, some people deny that continued rapid population growth itself poses any problems. Its alleged consequences stem from either unjust distributions of goods and resources or improper production technologies. At the other end of the continuum, some people believe that rapid population in conjunction with pollution may exceed the carrying capacity of earth and result in a catastrophe that eliminates humankind. A moderate position, and one assumed in this book, is that rapid population growth does significantly threated the quality of life in the future but not human survival. Which of these views one adopts depends upon several moral and empirical premises. The book's 1st chapter presents some evidence for the moderate view and then focuses on moral analysis of population policies within this framework. The 3 primary factors in population concerns are individual couples or families making reproductive decisions, voluntary population agencies, and governments. Attention in this book is primarily directed to government policy. The issue is what government policy should be--laissez faire, voluntary family planning, or a policy "beyond family planning."
Development of the Soviet census
This review of the development of the census in the USSR examines the historical background, early Soviet censuses and censuses in the post World War 2 period and compares the specific census questions in the 3 postwar censuses. Several irregularly scheduled censuses have been held in the USSR since the Soviet regime came into power in 1917. The most recent Soviet census was taken in January 1979. Dating back to the 8th century, the population of Kievan Russia and the Novgorod lands was recorded for taxation. In 1918, Peter 1 ordered a person-by-person rather than a household count. Between 1860 and 1889, some 79 local city censuses were conducted. The 1st Soviet census was conducted on August 28, 1920. Agricultural census questions were included along with demographic and occupational items. According to the 1st postwar census, conducted on January 15, 1959, there were 208.8 million people in the USSR, of whom 48% were urban. The 1979 census was the most modern and contained several questions not previously asked. Results of the 3 postwar censuses are comparable because of the exogenous demographic catastrophes that occurred between all the prewar censuses and again between 1939 and 1959. The 1959 census was a status report on the consequences of the war, and the 1970 census showed the 1st trends for normal development. The 1979 census demonstrated the success or failure of policies implemented since the 1970 census. It also showed the exact dimensions of the continued overall decrease in the population growth rate due to the decline in the crude birth rate. In addition, it reflects the incredible increase in the crude birth rate. In addition, it reflects the incredible increase in the crude death rate since 1964, particularly that of infant mortality and of males in the prime ages of 20-44. The census questions are reviewed in detail.
Population as a global issue: the Soviet prism
Examination of the Soviet response to population as a global issue reveals several points: 1) the ideology has eased to permit recognition of a world population problem, demographic processes common to all societies, and the importance of family planning and economic development as solutions to the pressure of people on resources in the less developed countries; 2) these ideological changes can be attributed as much to traditional policy goals as to considerations of interdependence; and 3) nonparticipation in funding world-population-control activities, continued efforts to raise the birthrate at home, support for pronatalism in other Warsaw Pact countries, and persistent refusal to share vital resource information with United Nations agencies. Discussion focus is on world demographic realities, the Soviet conceptual framework, the evolution of Soviet attitudes and policies, and population and security. According to Soviet global analysis, socialism as an ideology and as a system affecting income distribution can provide the only real answer to the pressure of population on resources. Consequently, in their research and in formulating policy proposals, Soviet demographers need to bear in mind many ideological considerations. These include the relationship between population growth and socioeconomic development and the clash between new-Marxists and new-Malthusians. The Soviet position has become more balanced, i.e., it has come to acknowledge both economic development and family planning as answers to the overpopulation problem in the developing countries. As long as U.S. policy and world market forces combine to ensure that the USSR can obtain the food that it needs, the issue of finding the answer to the problem of the imbalance between resources and population will not receive top priority. Soviet pronatalism at home and a lack of financial contributions to United Nations population control programs are evidence of continued Soviet unwillingness to participate in programs to control the process of world population growth and its impact.
The poverty of nations: the political economy of hunger and population
The relationship between world hunger, growing population, and increasing environmental degradation in the developing countries is discussed. Rapid population growth and inadequate food supply are merely the symptoms of poverty. Poverty, itself, is maintained by 2 basic and related causes: 1) the internal political-economic structure of the developing countries; and 2) the dependent and unequal relationship between the developing and the rich countries. Birth rates can be reduced, even at low income levels, if the nation uses its income to provide increased economic welfare and security to its entire population. Family planning programs can accelerate the process of fertility decline but cannot bring about its onset by themselves. Economic development, especially rural and agricultural development, with broad participation provides a sufficient condition for sustained fertility decline. The constraints to increased and adequate food production in developing countries are not agricultural or technical; they are structural and political. Radical change is needed in the structure of agrarian segments of developing societies and also in the relationships between different sectors of the economy. This is major because agriculture plays many important roles in general economic development. Degradation of natural resources need not continue as a result of growing population pressures. This degradation occurs because the welfare of the rural population has been suppressed. Realignment of the productive resources that produce income and benefits must occur. In addition, these basic changes within developing countries must be accompanied by changes in their relationships with the rich nations.
Kenya Fertility Survey, 1977-1978. First report, volume 1
The findings of the Kenya Fertility Survey (KFS) (1977-1978) are presented. The decision of the government to participate in the World Fertility Survey (WFS) program was inspired by its desire to enhance its study to social, economic, and cultural factors affecting fertility. Information is included on survey background and methodology. Findings are presented on the following: the demographic and background characteristics of population enumerated in the household schedule and the respondents to the individual interview; fertility and family size; preference for sex and number of children; knowledge and use of contraception; and some noncontraceptive factors affecting fertility (full breastfeeding, breastfeeding, postpartum amenorrhea, postpartum sexual abstinence and temporary separation of spouses, length of exposure to contraception, and self reported infecundity and age at menarche). A total of 8452 women aged 15-50 who had slept in the household on the previous night were identified in the 8891 successfully enumerated households, giving a ratio of 0.95 eligible women per household. Of these, 8100 or 95.8% were interviewed. A total fertility rate of 8.1 was found. The direct and unadjusted KFS estimate for the 3 years preceding the survey was also 8.1. Preferences for children in terms of numbers and their sex had never before been asked of Kenyan women on a national scale. There were a total of 5150 women in the KFS who were currently married at the time of the survey and considered themselves to be physically capable of having more children. When asked whether they wanted to have another child sometime, 68% responded affirmatively, 17% negatively, and 15% were undecided or did not respond. The proportion of women responding that they wanted to have no more children was affected most by how many living children they currently had and to a lesser extent their age. The majority (84%) had heard of at least 1 modern contraceptive method and an additional 3% had heard only of a traditional method. Of 4217 women, 5.9% reported current use of a modern contraceptive method, and 3.3% reported use of a traditional method. The current breakdown of users by method for the 388 users was: oral contraception, 29%; rhythm, 16%; abstinence, 16%; female sterilization, 14%; IUD, 10%; injection, 8%; and all others, 7%. No consistent pattern across age groups was discernible.
The National Fertility Survey of Senegal was begun in March 1978; the survey included a household survey of 180,000 people, and a fertility survey of 5000 women aged 15-49. A questionnaire was prepared for the purpose and translated into the country's 4 languages. The questionnaire was divided into 7 sections: 1) residence, education, and religious and socioeconomic conditions; 2) history of unions; 3) history of pregnancies; 4) knowledge and practice of contraception; 5) breastfeeding and contraception; 6) professional activity of the woman; and 7) information on the husband. A pretest preceding the survey led to important modifications in the text of the questionnaire. Personnel for the survey was selected and trained in 3 different centers, for 2-3 weeks; 24 women and 57 men were divided into 2 groups, under the responsibility of a supervisor. The processing of data will not be completed until about February 1979.
Demographic archaeology is the study of human populations in an archaeological context--their demographic characteristics, temporal trends of growth, decline or expansion, and causal and processual relationships with cultural variables--in order to reach some understanding of the principles of human survival, adaptation and social interactions. This book examines the determinants and determination of population size and density; prehistoric fertility, mortality, population growth and population regulation; and the role of demographic variables in cultural evolution. The maximum population density of hunters and gatherers is dependent on the yield from and periodic fluctuations of the biomass of exploitable resources. Sustentation of the ecological network limits the economic growth potential of hunters and gatherers. By contrast, food production fosters high human population densities, primarily by increasing the biomass of resources and eliminating ecological competition between food resources and other biota. Density estimates can be determined from geomorphological studies, paleoenvironmental analysis, ethnohistorical data, net yield of exploitable resources and agricultural products, and rates of consumption. Several models for estimating probable population densities are critiqued. Environmental and economic variables determine the maximum local and regional group size of hunters and gatherers and food producers. Maximum population size is determined by the availability of mates to assure the biological viability of the group. Careful analysis of settlement data, artifact, food refuse, burials and ethnohistorical data can determine the size of population units. A review of archaeological methodology and the assumptions underlying its utilization highlights the limits and potentials of obtaining reliable estimates of archaeological populations. Paleodemography determines estimates of vital statistics from skeletal remains, including age at death, life expectancy, survivorship, probability of death at successive years, and death rates. Given certain assumptions, inferences can also be made about birth rates, population growth rates, and population size. Conditions of high pre-adult and adult mortality, late age at nubility, and long childspacing periods did not inhibit the potential for great population increases among prehistoric groups. The use of population controls, direct or indirect, must have been common to maintain a balanced population. Determination of group movements and influential environmental factors, coupled with knowledge of the evolutionary adaptation of man provide a realistic basis for tracing cultural development and for understanding the origins of civilization. The systemic approach recognizes the transition to specialization to control resources as fostering the development of larger settlements which in turn required a structured managerial organization.
Future dimensions of world food and population
The need for careful consideration of the problems associated with world food and population prompted the Congressional Roundtable on World Food and Population during 1979 and early 1980. The series of papers produced by the Roundtable is included in this volume. The idea that feeding people adequately constitutes a goal of almost universal acceptability is key to the institutions and programs intended to alleviate world hunger and stimulate food self-reliance. The problem of balancing population needs with food production is not well understood. There are clearly no "quick fixes." Maurice Williams begins his observations with a vision of a world without hunger. He gives details and the progress and prospects since the 1974 World Food Conference. The cause of rising food deficits in the developing countries, he indicates, is the rate of increase in the demand for food, which arises from a high rate of population growth coupled with a high income elasticity of demand for food. Williams describes the nature of the population dimension, the actions which developing countries can take to increase food production, the problem of malnutrition as it is related to the effective distribution of food, and the need for increased investment. David Hopper presents the outline of the world food and population situation in numerical terms, giving special attention to the nature of the demand for food, the course of population growth, and the prospects for increasing food production to meet world demand. His description of the dynamics of population change is helpful in understanding the potential influence of population and development policies. He finds recent population trends encouraging and is optimistic about the world's food producing capabilities. Lester Brown stresses the problem of expanding food supplies when cropland throughout the world is decreasing. He maintains that agricultural land can no longer be treated as an inexhaustible source of land for industry, urbanization, and the energy sector. Brown argues for the adoption of land use planning and management, but acknowledges that this solution most often is incompatible with existing social structures and therefore difficult for governments to establish.
The nature of the world food and population problem
In this discussion of the nature of the world food and population problem, attention is directed to the following: progress and prospects since the World Food Conference adopted a Universal Declaration on the Eradication of Hunger and Malnutrition in 1974; major elements of the food and population problem; the population side of the equation; how developing countries can increase food production; problems of malnutrition and the effective distribution of food; the need for increased investment in food; priority for increased food production; critical importance of international grain market stability; more effective means for meeting local food emergencies; the growing importance of food aid; and food security policies and country action programs. The 1974 World Food Conference adopted the following resolutions for safeguarding populations affected by drought and disaster from the fearful consequences of inadequate food supplies: increase food production in countries where it is most needed; broaden the effective distribution of food through measures for improving trade, consumption, and nutrition; and build a better system of world food security which can avoid the disruptively wide swings in food prices, such as occurred so dramatically in 1972-74. The World Food Conference called on developing countries to place a higher priority on rural development and the role of the small farmers in meeting the food needs of poorer people. It called on developed countries to increase their assistance to low income countries. The progress of the last 4 years has been mixed. Good harvest for 3 successive years have contributed to the rebuilding of food stocks and a presently improved world food situation. In developing countries there has been increased investment in food production, and governments have begun to focus more attention on the longterm food needs of their people. Yet, the efforts thus far are still less than adequate to meet the needs. Mechanisms within the UN for emergency food relief have been strengthened. It is most unfortunate that much of the progress in the world food situation to date is the result of good weather. The world food problem has international dimensions which affect almost all countries, but, in the 1st instance, it is a problem which primarily concerns most directly some 36-40 countries. Countries which have substantially lowered birthrates appear to be those effectively meeting the basic human needs of the broad mass of their populations for food, health care (including family planning services), employment, and improved roles for women. The most promising option open to low income developing countries faced with increasing food deficits is to produce much more of ther own food. It is in the basic interest of the U.S. and of other advanced industrial countries to support increased investment and a marked increase in food production in developing countries.
Recent trends in world food and population
This discussion focuses on 3 aspects of the match of food to population: the nature of the demand for food; the course of population growth as a component of global demand; and the prospects for augmenting food production to meet world demand. If all of the world's population were to consume food in the quantity and quality currently consumed by the average American, i.e., a consumption level of about 2000 pounds of grain equivalent per year, world demand for food would be about 4.0 billion metric tons of grain or its equivalent. That demand would be roughly 2.67 times present world food output of 1.5 billion tons of grain equivalent. The per capita food consumption in the poorest developing countries is about 400 pounds/year, roughly 1750 calories/day from grain sources. At this level of intake for all people, global grain consumption would be about 900 million metric tons/year, or 60% of present world production. This production evenly distributed among the global population would permit a diet of 750 pounds per capita/year or about 3300 calories/day. In all, the people of North America, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, and Eastern Bloc countries eat about 700 million metric tons of grain equivalent annually, roughly half of present world population. Together these nations have about 1/4 of world population. The demand for food on a global basis can be expected to increase at close to 3.0%/year, approximately 4/5 of which is population expansion with the remainder due to income growth. A growth of 3.0%/year implies a doubling of food requirements in 24 years. If presently estimated trends persist, world population will probably be somewhere between 6.28 billion and 6.74 billion by the year 2000. Most scholars argue, however, that the rate will be lower. Most of the projected population increase will be in the poorer nations of the world. Theissue of food for those born and yet to be born is a minor technical problem, for world resources can, if mobilized, ensure an abundance for all humankind. Until the political leaders of most of the world's nations agree to set aside their differences and their short-term interests to forge the hard alliance which will transform the world's potential for sustenance into a reality, there will be no true sense of security about humankind's food supply.
Population and technological change: a study of long-term trends
It is generally agreed that changes in technology had an important influence on population size, but opinions are divided concerning the type of technological change which had the greatest influence in different periods and regions of the world. The influence of population size on technology has attracted less attention. During early stages of human history some inventions seem to have been transmitted relatively quickly over huge distances while others were transmitted more slowly; much of the world population lives in areas still at early stages of the industrial revolution. Demographic factors help to explain why some technologies fail to be transmitted; certain technologies are inapplicable in areas with a small population, others require high population density. Demographic factors also provide motivation for invention; radical changes in the relation between human and natural resources occur in areas with high population growth rates. A growing population gradually exhausts natural resources and is forced to reduce its numbers by emigration or change its use of resources. Major migrations of populations are likely to be accompanied by important technological changes. In the 1st part of this study an attempt is made to draw up limits for different techniques of food supply. Part 2 discusses population size and technological levels in the ancient world, emphasizing the beginnings of food production and the appearance of urbanization. In ancient times high population size and high technology went together since large labor forces were needed to undertake construction and transportation. Part 3 discusses the interrelations between demographic trends and technological change in the period of preindustrial urbanization in Europe, focusing on increasing shortages of forest areas for cutting timber and fuel wood and for producing the charcoal necessary to smelt iron ore. Part 4 considers the centuries after 1750 when industrial technologies were transmitted from Western Europe to other parts of the world. Until then areas with low population density were unable to reach technological levels as high as areas with high density. After 1950 rates of population growth accelerated because mortality but not fertility declined rapidly. Rapid increases in world population were accompanied by rapid technological change, resulting in radical changes in the pattern of international trade and factor proportions.
Aspects of urban immigrant society in the Maghreb
Causes and consequences of urbanization in Algeria
Migration and integration of rural peoples into the city: the Arab Republic of Egypt
New trends and changes in Nordic law
Focus in this discussion of new trends and changes in family law in the 5 Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden is on the following: family legislation based on common principles; changing society and its influence on family law; marriage and cohabitation in Sweden; marriage and divorce; death settlements; custody of children; and viewing the future. The living conditions in the 5 Nordic countries is quite similar. In the field of legislation there has been an active collaboration among the Nordic states for some time. When the need for change in some important aspect of a law is considered in 1 country, the other states will be offered an opportunity to participate in the deliberations. Family law has been 1 of the subjects for such collaboration among the Nordic countries. Several changes have occurred in one or another of the marriage and marriage related laws in the different countries, generally after consultations with the other states, since the 1920s. In addition, between 1959-1964, a common reexamination was made. Since 1969, reviews have been taking place in all the Nordic countries. Family law is meant to form and to regulate the personal relations between husband and wife and between parents and children. Consequently, a changing society requires a constant review of the law. The most outstanding feature of today's society is the changing relation between men and women, between husbands and wives, and between parents and children as a result of the changing roles of women. At this time in Sweden more than 2/3 of all married women with children under age 17 work outside the home, and the figures from the other countries give a similar picture. The need for further equalization of men and women must be regarded as a motive for reforming family law. Another reason for changing family law is the fact that the duration of the marriage is not the same as it once was. Another important factor to consider is the rapid growth in the field of social insurance and other social benefits. Of the Nordic countries, cohabitation without marriage is most common in Sweden. In 1973, some changes were made in the Swedish Marriage Code in order to provide solutions to practical problems. Divorce laws were radically simplified, and these changes have caused misunderstandings in other countries.
This report focuses on the development of the Refugee Act of 1980 in the context of past U.S. refugee admission and resettlement programs and policies. The Act was enacted to provide: 1) a permanent and systematic procedure for admission to the U.S. of refugees, and 2) comprehensive and uniform provisions for the effective resettlement and absorption of those admitted refugees. Part 1 provides an overview of U.S. refugee admissions and programs since World War 2, and legislation and admission procedures since 1965. Part 2 discusses federal assistance for domestic resettlement of refugees. A broad historical overview of assistance provided to refugees is presented and more specific information on the nature of refugee assistance available at the time the Refugee Act was being considered is offered. Part 3 is an overview of the development of the Refugee Act and a summary of its provisions. The critical issues that arose over the course of the legislation's consideration by Congress are analyzed. These include: 1) numerical limits to be placed on refugee admissions and congressional participation in setting these limits, 2) administration of U.S. refugee programs at the Federal level and policy coordination, and 3) Federal assistance for refugee resettlement and duration of assistance. A legislative history and summary of the provisions of the Act are included. It is hoped that this report will contribute to a better public understanding of the U.S. refugee programs.
Introduction to population modeling
The text of this monograph focusing on population modeling represents lecture notes from a course taught in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the State University of New York at Stony Brook during the Spring of 1977. The objective is to investigate how to describe the evolution in time of a population of reproducing individuals with the individuals ranging in complexity from single cell organisms through plants and lower animals to humans. The first 6 sections of the monograph investigate the dynamics of a single population, without explicit regard for other, interacting populations: simple single species population models; stochastic birth and death processes; a 2 age group population model; time delayed logistic equations; population growth in a time-varying environment; and stable points, stable cycles and chaos. In the 2nd section models are investigated which treat population size discretely but only at the expense of considerable mathematical complication. The mathematical tools used include probability generating functions and expectation operators. It is discovered that in general the expected value of the population size in the stochastic model is in fact the same as the more easily deduced result for the deterministic model. Consequently, stochastic models are not pursued further. The 3rd section contains the development of a model for the growth of a population of reproducing individuals in which there is an initial and infertile period prior to reproductive maturity. This model is simple, yet it captures certain human reproductive properties well. The model, which is formulated in terms of differential equations, submits with ease to graphical analysis. In the next section the idea of time lags is extended. Rather than considering only the discrete lag associated with reaching reproductive maturity, a smeared out lag is introduced, corresponding with a smooth phenomenon such as the gradual regeneration of foliage after a year of excessive foraging by an oversized population of herbivores. In the 5th section a selection of models are studied in which time is treated both discretely and continuously. The final section on single species models investigates the dynamics of populations with nonoverlapping generations. The latter 5 sections of the monograph investigate a sequence of increasingly complicated population interactions.
Migration in West Africa: demographic aspects
The authors describe the demographic aspects of internal, international, and rural-urban migration in nine West African countries. The volume and direction of migratory movements are examined, and migrants and nonmigrants are characteristized according to selected demographic and socioeconomic factors. New census data are compared, and earlier migration studies are reinterpreted in light of the more recent data. The study is based mainly on data from population censuses conducted between 1970 and 1976 (ANNOTATION)
Rural-born Fijians and Indo-Fijians in Suva: a study of movement and linkages
"This monograph examines the movement experience of Fijians and Indo-Fijians resident in several areas of Suva, the largest urban centre in Fiji. The mobility patterns, existing linkages of the movers with places of origin, future residential intentions, family structure, commitment to the urban area and perceived advantages and disadvantages of areas of rural origin and urban destination are investigated...." An attempt is made to determine whether the moves are permanent or temporary in nature. Data are from a 1977-1978 survey of 400 household heads (EXCERPT)
The one year/five-year migration problem
The problem of reconciling demographic data collected over different periods of time is investigated. The migration example can be incorporated at an early stage in the construction of the simplest multiregional model: the multiregional life table. It is assumed in this paper that the population consists of 2 groups with different intensities of migration, and a matrix diagonalization method of solution is proposed. It is believed that this will bring the model closer to the demographic ideal of migration propensities and will provide more theoretical insight into methods of dealing with such problems as return migrants or chronic migrants. The model suggested provides a reasonable approximation to the problem considered. Several assumptions were made in order to find a solution, and these assumptions have been shown to be justified. The assumption that certain variables, a and k, are independent of the regions of origin or destination may be used to show that differences in the population arising from the interpretation of a and k do not depend on regional factors. The fact that the transformations T1 and T2 are approximately equal may be interpreted as a preserved ranking in the attraction of the regions for migrants, i.e., the magnitude of the migration flows between various regions may differ in different time periods, but their relative proportions will stay the same. The fact that a and k are almost independent of the age groups was unexpected, but it has its demographic or social interpretations. The differences between the age-specific migration curves of "chronic" migrants and those of "all" migrants are insignificant when considering the 1-year/5-year migration problem.
Data on migration flows are not often disaggregated by regions of origin and destination for subgroups of the population. These detailed flows must be inferred from aggregate information. The 2 methods presented for deducing these estimates are conceptualized as mathematical optimization problems with nonlinear objective functions and linear constraints. The individual techniques differ in the objective functions used. Bi- and multiproportional adjustment methods integrate information divergence minimizing problems and entropy maximization (a special formulation of the information divergence method). In the entropy problem, no initial values of the elements to be estimated are available and they are uniformly set to equal unity. A single solution algorithm is developed for both problems. The entropy method is suited for estimating detailed migration flows on the basis of aggregate data only; the information divergent method is useful for upgrading migration tables. The 2nd method is quadratic adjustment, where weighted squared deviations between estimates and initial guesses are minimized. The guesses may be derived from outdated migration tables or may represent "a priori" information on the migration pattern. A modified Friedlander method is presented which yields estimates of the appropriate sign. Proofs of the 5 theorems and solutions for 3 special entropy cases are provided. Validity of the estimation methods is measured using chi-square and absolute percentage error techniques, examining the accuracy of the estimates when compared to observed data. Illustrations of the procedures using migration data from Austria and Sweden uncovered an interesting observation. A certain amount of data on the age composition of migrants is necessary to yield good estimates of detailed flow--additional initial information on age structure does not add significantly to the quality of the estimates. Additional research will increase the utility of estimation methodology. For example, determination of the amount of initial information needed, strategies for improvement of initial guesses, and the potential of contingency table analysis are being explored for their contribution toward improved estimation. Further research of the methodology's application to updating migration tables would be valuable. Improvement of validity measures that are less susceptible to smaller flows is also needed. Application of the estimation methodology is not limited to migration data by can be applied to all cross-classified data or multidimensional contingency tables.
Age patterns of migration: cause-specific profiles
An investigation of the role of various reasons for migration (causes) in the observed variations in age specific migration rates is undertaken, with the expectation that the age pattern may be estimated by weighing the cause specific profile by its contribution to the migration structure, analogous to the development of mortality estimates noted by Preston. Differences in age patterns of migration in 2 or more populations should be attributable to differences in the cause specific structures. Studies of causes of migration generally have serious limitations (usually only 1 cause is tabulated, categories of causes are usually too broad to capture true motivations and often responses are not directly linked to the initiator of the move). Disaggregation by age and sex can increase the understanding of why people move. Data from Czechoslovakia collected since 1966, are used to develop cause specific age profiles. The age profiles reveal that the causes of migration have quite different age patterns. Age profiles for housing reasons are most similar to the aggregate migration schedule, with peaks during infancy, early labor force participation, retirement, and in the oldest age group. Migration due to marriage and education are essentially unimodal in age profile and are concentrated between the ages of 10-30. Migrations caused by divorce, change in employment, and moving closer to place of work have bimodal profiles, with peaks during infancy and early years of labor force participation. Health is an important motivation for the elderly. These patterns may be interpreted within individual life cycle and family life cycle frameworks. A comparison of data from different years reveal that both the migration levels and age profiles of the cause specific structure of migration are roughly similar. The variations associated with distance migrated are difficult to clarify. 2 model schedules are developed (full 11 parameter and reduced 7 parameter) to fit all of the cause specific profiles. Analyses of the cause specific age profiles and equations for the models are presented along with some numerical estimates of the various parameters. An examination of cause deleted age profiles clearly identifies the contribution of each cause of migration to the aggregate age profile.
Multiregional zero-growth populations with changing rates
Interest in this chapter is with describing mathematically the dynamics of populations in which fertility has fallen toward or has already nearly reached replacement levels, with perturbations from time to time resulting from both social and economic conditions. To do this the starting point is the result of the "weak ergodic theorem," which states that the age structure of a population subject to an arbitrary sequence of fertility and mortality schedules over time eventually loses its dependence on the initial age distribution and comes to be a function only of its relatively recent history of fertility and mortality rates. This theorem says nothing about how age structure is determined by recent vital rates or how the effect of an initial age structure is lost. This led to an examination of the dynamics of populations with arbitrarily changing vital rates but with a Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) of unity. As levels and changes in levels of fertility and mortality diminish, in-migration and out-migration have an increasingly important part in determining the dynamics of regional populations. By analogy to stable population theory, multiregional stable population theory maintains that if regional age specific schedules of fertility, mortality, and migration are fixed for a long time, the population evolves into a multiregional stable population with fixed regional shares and regional age compositions. Stable theory for populations with fixed vital rates cannot be extended in a predictable way to populations with rates that are arbitrarily changing over time. Yet, specific formulas can be obtained for various attributes of such populations, and it can be seen how weak ergodicity works explicity for populations that are almost stationary but with otherwise arbitrary rates. To do this the number of age groups is restricted to 2 for a closed population and the number of regions is restricted to 2 for a multiregional population without age structure. The results obtained are qualitatively true for populations with a greater number of age groups and regions. The usual restriction of a one-sex model when age structure is considered is followed. The dynamics of closed populations with changing rates but with an NRR equal to unity is reviewed. General biregional population dynamics with changing vital rates are formulated, and specific formulas for the dynamics of special zero growth biregional populations are obtained. Examples are given and some old and new concepts are reviewed.
Aggregation of population projection models
In the study of dynamic systems the issue of aggregation rises often. This is particularly the case in mathematical demography, where the analyst is concerned with measuring and projecting flows from one state, such as region of residence, to another. When modeling any demographic system, it is important to consciously or unconsciously aggregate over some of the above variables in order to obtain a manageable model. Generally the aggregation is performed with respect to the variables which are of no immediate interest to the particular problem being studied. This paper develops a formalism for determining the general relationship between an n-dimensional population vector and the corresponding m-dimensional aggregated vector. The following main results are presented: 1) that an aggregated population vector generally obeys a non-Markovian equation; 2) tha after a large number of time intervals, the non-Markovian equation can be replaced by an almost equivalent Markovian equation, with the aggregated transition matrix having the same maximum eigenvalue and corresponding eigenvector as G; and 3) Luenberger's use of upper and lower aggregated transition matrices is employed to estimate the error caused by aggregation. The results derived are illustrated in an example using interstate migration data for Australia during the 1966-1971 period. In general, the linear, time-invariant Markovian models used in population projections are only an approximation. The observed transition rates will be in error if the system is sufficiently far from the stable distribution, but this is not the only source of error facing the demographer. In many instances it may not be the major source of error.
Migration and settlement: 10. Austria
This study reports on a multiregional demographic analysis of Austria and is part of a study in which patterns of interregional migration and population distribution in many countries are analyzed using similar mathematical techniques. Population dynamics in Austria before 1951 and between 1951-71 are discussed in the initial section of this paper. The author then moves on to discuss current patterns of spatial population growth. Discussion focuses on regional disaggregation, data collection, data preparation, population size, regional population dynamics (fertility and mortality differentials, migration differentials), and components of regional population growth. Multiregional population analysis grew out of a desire to investigate problems which could not be studied using the conventional methods of single-region analysis. Demographic data for the provinces and regions of Austria are analyzed. The multiregional life table is an important product of multiregional demographic analysis. The life statistic table allows examination of the life history of a birth cohort, expectations of life, and survivorship proportions. The multiregional life table may also be used to derive measures of fertility and migration such as the net reproduction rate and the net migraproduction rate. Another section of this paper examines the longterm influence of constant regional patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration on the regional distribution and age structure of the Austrian population. Results of these projections are included in the appendices.
Population projections and action in the field of population.
Focus in this lecture on the subject of population projections and action in the field of population is on the following: principles of projection building; endogenization factors in the projection; the users of population projections; methodological problems; the policy function of population projections; and population projections and international strategies. A single basic idea underlies projections. A projection is an assumption-cum-deduction exercise aimed at computing new structures from a set of assumptions of change applied to the last known structure. Although the principle is simple, its application may be extremely complex, particularly when the objective is to "endogenize" the model. It is "endogenization" that gives projection its value. This means postulating that the variables introduced into the system are all connnected by a fairly dense network of interrelationships. It is important to review the links between population projections and the underlying philosophy of the Bucharest Conference. The essential credo of Bucharest is that there is no tradeoff between population and development but that population dynamics render development still more imperative. No longer are there any pure and simple population problems. What this means in demographic research, and in constructing population projections, is that population factors are not free vectors but must be treated as dependent on many other factors. To revert to the newly coined terminology, the projection must be highly endogenized. Trends in the 3 main components of population change (fertility, mortality, and migration) must be projected in terms of the factors on which they themselves depend. In constructing projections, the demographer must bear in mind how they will be used. Before beginning to construct the projections, the demographer needs to have resource to a model that enables him/her to organize the research and to achieve a better understanding of the interrelations which he/she intends to introduce into the process. Once the conceptual framework has been constructed, the demographer should review all the factors which, given that framework, may affect population trends. A most difficult problem is to estimate parameters in countries where statistics are incomplete or of poor quality. The demographer has 2 essential functions in the assistance which he/she can give to policymakers when constructing population projections: he/she must work to make the "elasticity" of projections as clear as possible; and he/she must specify the plausibility of the policymaker's targets. In constructing projections, the demographer must consider the general content of global or partial strategies adopted by governments.
Demographic analysis and projections as an aid to development planning.
In this lecture devoted to demographic analysis and projections as an aid to development planning, attention is directed to the following: the key to the solution of development problems, i.e., development planning, world population trends and prospects, and the role of demographic data and projections in development planning. Planners need to be aware that the prior achievement of a certain level of development is a prerequisite for the transition to a demographic situation favorable to faster development in the future. The concept of development needs to be broadened to include, besides the level of per capita income, several variables to represent the quality of life such as the level of infant mortality, life expectancy, and literacy. Due to the fact that the overwhelming majority of the population in the developing countries lives in rural areas and is dependent on agriculture, increased attention should be paid to a social policy that aims to raise the economic and social level of the villages. The development process may be assisted also by measures for improving health and educational networks and raising the cultural level of the population. The extension of health services may stimulate the spread of family planning through improvement and infant mortality and also promote the practice of family planning. Supplements to such developmental policies are direct measures of population policy. Recent changes in the world economy have produced situations that are unique in several respects. Many experts doubt that population controls can succeed in checking this rapid population growth. Containment of population growth by acceleration of demographic transition appears to be indispensable. Development planning calls for basically 3 kinds of data: demograhpic data on populaton, its structure, and components of change; data on socioeconomic structure and economic indicators; and sociopolitical data on social development and its indicators. Most important are the projections of population by sex and age, for these serve many purposes in socioeconomic planning. With the help of demographic projections, plans can be elaborated for production of the needed consumers; goods and services, employment of the labor force, directions of agricultural and industrial development, and so forth. The importance of subnational projections should be emphasized, for rural and urban population projections have great practical importance for development planning.
Population projections and development models.
A variety of procedures are reviewed whereby population projections are used in planning and in the selection of different kinds of development models. The objective is to summarize the procedures of applying demographic projections in economic and social development planning, to examine briefly the integration of population projections in certain single purpose models, and to consider the treatment of population in multipurpose and largely endogenous models. The discussion is general and without technical elaboration. The projections and models under consideration are designed to depict 2 major aspects of population change likely to occur in the course of the economic and social development anticipated for a given plan period. The 1st aspect is basically dynamic and involves changes in mortality, fertility, and migration and thereby in growth and size of population. The 2nd is essentially structural. To depict future demographic changes, population projections use the component method, whereby the growth and changing age-sex structure of the population interact with changes in fertility, mortality, and migration, assumptions for which are worked out externally. A coordinated system of demographic projections appears to be indispensable in many situations. It is a useful, easily produced and inexpensive procedure that yields information on dynamic and structural aspects of future population change as well as analytical possibilities not yet explored. The single purpose models that focus on socioeconomic implications appear to be useful analytical tools. They make it possible to explore the effects of possible population changes in selected socioeconomic areas in a fairly straightforward way. The multipurpose models appear to be a promising new development in the field of economic-demographic modeling. They treat population change and socioeconomic development in an integrated and highly endogenous way. Specifically, demographic change is dealt with as occurring not independently of the working of the model but as a consequence of changes in model variables governing demograhpic behavior. In particular the BACHUE series makes it possible to explore the consequences of numerous policies and policy packages and thus contributes to longterm planning and policy evaluation.
Some aspects of population projections in developed market economies.
This lecture describes some aspects of population projections in advanced market economy countries which may permit comparison with those for other countries. Attention is directed to the following: uses and impact of population projections; national population projection programs; projection methodology; basic assumptions; the number of projection series prepared and published; principal and analytical series; length of projection period; frequency of revisions; mortality assumptions; fertility assumptions (period and cohort approaches, prognosis of fertility trends); migration assumptions; and the presentation of results. Government or private planning are the primary uses of population and other demographic projections. Possibly the major difference between the use of population projections in market economies and in centrally planned economies is that private use of population projections is considerably more frequent in market economies. Yet, governments in market economies have recognized the need to make concrete, comprehensive plans for realizing specific goals of public policy in the social and economic spheres and have become aware of the important role that demograhic factors have in determining social and economic problems and priorities. The scope of national population projection programs varies greatly in respect to resources devoted to them, frequency and detail of the projections, and length of the projection. The publication of these projections varies considerably in the extent of explanation of the methodology and assumptions, the analysis of the results, and the interpretation of the future trends implied. The availability of reliable statistics on the age and sex distribution of the population and fertility in developed market economies generally leads to the use of a cohort component method, but this does not mean that mathematical methods are not employed. A recent trend in the refinement of the methodology of population projections has been toward greater specificity in assumptions and estimation categories. The population projections are generally based on the assumption that no large scale war or widespread epidemic or other catastrophe will take place, and generally no effort is made to allow for future economic fluctuations of a cyclical nature. The series of population projections prepared by market economies in recent years has been more likely to contain multiple assumptions for fertility than for mortality or migration.
Evaluation of population projections for developing countries.
For many developing countries, a population projection has to begin by assembling and evaluating scarce and defective data of the present demographic situation and recent trends, and filling gaps with estimates of basic indicators. A major source of errors in projections for developing countries is in the assessment of the present and recent and current trends. The 1st step is to review available estimates of 4 basic indicators that are related to basic elements in population change: current rate of population growth, crude birth rate, crude death rate, and rate of net migration. Current rate of population growth can be estimated from data from 2 or more population censuses that are reasonably comparable, and were conducted in the recent past within reasonable time intervals. Adjustments may be necessary to obtain an estimate of population change under normal circumstances if temporary events (e.g., war, famine, and internal strife) have occurred between enumeration periods. Demographic techniques can be used to obtain indirect and inferential estimates of the levels of fertility, mortality and net migration based on the age-sex composition and other data from the censuses. Other sources of data include demographic sample surveys. It is important to examine the reliability of the data sources and methods of estimation used, and discard unreliable estimates. Ascertaining the relative strengths of the estimates of the 4 indicators will be beneficial if corrections of errors in later projections are needed. To check internal consistency, an examination of the age-sex composition of the projected population at future dates and comparing the results with the base year is warranted. If there have been no abrupt changes in recent trends of births, deaths, and migrations, the age-sex composition will be stable over time or shift gradually. Underenumeration of sex and age group, and misreporting of age are major problems for determining population projections. "Backward projection" can reveal irregularities in the age-sex composition data which may be due to enumeration errors, misreporting, or selective migration. Inconsistency between the age-sex structure of the base population and prevailing levels of fertility and mortality can cause unwarranted irregularities in the projected population. Using projection techniques, the age-sex composition of the population corresponding to given levels of fertility and mortality and vice versa can be determined. Use of stable population models and simulation techniques in comparison with enumeration population data can clarify many inconsistencies. Total agreement of demograhpic estimates from population projections and independent sources is rare. Use of adjusted population estimates for determining projections should be guided by the amount of deviation from the unadjusted totals and the extent to which unadjusted totals are being used. One of the best ways to improve the performance of population projections as forecasts is to check the performance of previous projections and examine the causes of error. Deviations of projections from actual population trends may stem from any or all of the following sources: error in the estimation of the base year population, error in the estimation of the growth rate in the base year, and faulty assumptions for changes in the growth rate in the future.
Long-term population projections: prospects for mortality and fertility.
Over the last 200 years today's developed countries have undergone a 4 stage demographic transition: 1) fertility and mortality are high, with the former higher than the latter so that population grows slowly; 2) mortality drops while fertility is high so that population growth accelerates; 3) fertility begins to drop, the rate of population growth reaching a peak and then declining; and 4) fertility and mortality are more or less closely balanced at a lower level than in the initial stage and population size is stabilized. The present transition (the world population has multiplied 6 times from 1750) is shorter than those which went before; it may be completed in about 300 years and the population growth has been very rapid. It is possible that another transition will occur. Predicting this transition involves studying mortality and fertility as well as migration trends of past years. The author concludes from studies and surveys conducted since the 1950s that endogenous mortality (including diseases of the circulatory system and neoplasms) seems to be on the decline which would be a crucial element in making longterm population projections. In the opinion of medical experts 3 categories of disease are going to benefit from medical advances in the coming years: 1) cure of viral, microbial, and parasitic diseases by 1980-85, 2) cure of cancer by 1990-95, and 3) control of aging between 1985-2000. Thus reduction in male mortality rates would be possible in the future. The UN prospects for gains in life expectancy during 1980-2000 indicated a limit of 73.8 years for males, but this limit has already been surpassed. In the matter of fertility prospects no fundamental discoveries are to be expected in that area except for some improvement in contraceptive methods. The World Fertility Survey has made available data that is crucial to seeing what effect fertility fluctuations might have on the composition of the population by functional age groups. Various theories on the effect of fertility on future population size have been made without attempting to assess real prospects. A population projection based on mortality and fertility trends is in itself not much help unless it is presented in such a way as to enable the user to take socioeconomic consequences into account.
Estimation and adjustment of current population and its sex-age composition.
The objective of this paper is to summarize methods of adjusting and estimating population and its sex-age composition for projections. The intention is to explain succinctly the gist of the techniques which are found in the literature. Under normal conditions it is relatively rare to make an adjustment and estimation of the population total without adjustment and estimation of its sex-age composition, but where the population is small and no data on the sex-age composition are available, the total may be adjusted or estimated directly. A common method of evaluating and adjusting total population counts at 2 consecutive censuses is by the balancing equation, which is based on a simple principle. There are 2 types of errors in census statistics of population by sex and age. One is underenumeration or overenumeration of persons of certain sex and age groups. The other is misstatement of ages. Both types of errors are found in the statistically underdeveloped and the so-called statistically advanced countries. Among the various methods of evaluating and detecting errors in population data by sex and age, the age-ratio method, sex-ratio method, and the UN Secretariat's method have been used most often. A superficial examination of census data for both developing and developed countries reveals systematic tendencies to report certain preferred ages. The most commonly used method of adjustment is to smooth the distortions by grouping ages in 5 year groups and then interpolating mathematically. Sprague's multipliers and other osculatory multipliers are useful for smoothing erratic distributions by single years of age, but they cannot correct deficiencies or excesses in the reported numbers of 5 year or broader age groups such as those which result from underenumeration of persons under 5 or 20-24 years old or from exaggeration of the age of persons over 65. If data of 2 consecutive census are available and if appropriate survival rates are determined for the intercensal period from national life tables or model tables, the population is an age group which is believed to have been reported relatively accurately in 1 census may be used as a base for estimating the number of an age group corresponding to the same cohort in the other census by forward or reverse projection. The techniques of adjusting and estimating population by sex and age are inseparably interwoven with the techniques of estimating fertility and mortality. There have been major advances in the latter field during the last 20 years. More feedback from these developments to the methodology of estimating age distribution of population is required.
Estimation of mortality levels from incomplete data.
Attention in this lecture on the estimation of mortality levels from incomplete data is directed to the following: estimation of child mortality levels (the Brass technique, errors in reported numbers of children ever born and children surviving, bias in proportions dead by age of women, bias due to child mortality trends, bias due to fertility trends, and alternatives to the Brass technique); estimation of mortality at ages 5 and older (estimation based upon model life tables and census age distribution and estimation based upon data relating to orphanhood and widowhood); and estimates based on incomplete death registration data (matching of death registration with independent records, the Brass procedure using age distribution of registered deaths, and growth rate procedure using age distribution of registered deaths). Child mortality levels can be estimated with much accuracy in many developing nations by means of application of Brass type procedures. William Brass' procedure has provided a major step forward in knowledge of demographic conditions in developing countries. The most erious problem is created by failure of women to report the deaths of their children, and this problem is best dealt with at the stage of survey design rather than at the analytic stage. In regard to adult mortality levels, there are no equivalently powerful methods for estimation. Rather there is a battery of approaches that can be used according to data availability and the suitability of assumptions of population stability and closure. In instances where the main interest is developing a life table for use in population projection, probably the most promising approach is to use one of several methods for estimating the completeness of death registration. Correction for incompleteness produces a life table that is usually fairly current and that contains age specific rates. Alternative approaches are necessary where registration is absent or seriously deficient. All of these techniques should be tried where resources permit and results reconciled.
Estimation of fertility levels from incomplete data.
It is necessary to have an estimate of the crude birthrate for a baseline period for purposes of population projection, and it is desirable to have estimates of female age specific birth rates as well, so that projected changes in the age-sex distribution of the population can be allowed to interact with age specific birthrates projected from the baseline period. It may be useful to have baseline estimates of age specific marital fertility rates in order to allow for the consequences of anticipated changes in marriage patterns. The question that arises is how are these estimates to be made in the absence of complete vital registration data that can be used as the numerators of birthrate estimates. The most important conditioning factors in the choice of techniques are probably: the quality of data on children in the population by age; the existence of fertility trends; departures from conditions of "natural fertility;" and departures from conditions of stability in the population. A common strategy for the estimation of fertility levels is to adopt the age pattern of fertility from 1 of 2 sources: vital registration data on births by age of mother or a census/survey question on number of births last year, tabulated by mother's age. This age pattern of fertility is then to be scaled upwards or downwards in accordance with independent information on the number of births. This independent information most often is in the form of average parities by age of women. It may also occur in the form of the number of children under some age in a census or survey, or as estimates produced by intercensal or stable population analysis. Each of these possibilities is considered in turn. One of the most common methods for estimating age specific fertility rates in developing countries involves a comparison of 2 types of information, both normally drawn from the same survey. 1 piece of information is a tabulation of responses to the question of whether or not each woman had a birth in the year preceding the survey, by age of woman. This tabulation, if the reporting is accurate, will directly provide age specific fertility rates, after adjustment for the fact that the rates will refer to ages that are, on average, one half year younger than current age. If the enumeration and the reporting of children's ages in a census are accurate, the reported number of children under age 5 will be the survivors of births in the previous 5 years.
Current fertility trends as a basis for projections.
In this discussion of current fertility trends as a basis for projections, attention is directed to the following: the role of fertility in population trends; methodological problems of fertility projections; data sources and methods of analysis of fertility (completed fertility, birthrates, general and age specific fertility rates, total fertility and gross reproduction rate, fertility measures and projections based on data for cohorts, and the use of family planning survey data for fertility projections); and some examples of applications of fertility projection methods (population projection of Hungary until the turn of the millenium, projection of completed fertility of birth cohorts in Guyana based on trends of age specific fertility rates, and use of specific birthrates for marriage cohorts by duration of marriage in a projection of fertility). Recently, due to the decline of death rates and damping of their fluctuations, the levels and changes of fertility have been more dominant in shaping population trends. Thus, in the developing and analysis of demographic data, concentration has turned to the study of fertility rather than mortality. Increasing efforts have been directed toward the measurement and elucidation of the characteristics of decrease, stagnation, or increase in births. The interest in fertility studies has been intensified by the recent marked decline of fertility in most of the developed countries. In developing countries also the interest in and necessity of fertility research has increased greatly in recent decades. The 2 principal classical data sources on fertility are the population census and birth registration statistics. Projections of the population of Hungary to the year 2000 have been made in 5 variants, 4 of which represent the combinations of 2 different fertility projections with 2 mortality projections. The 5th shows the result if the age specific birthrates and mortality rates of 1978 were to remain constant through the period of the projection. It can be seen that the decline in fertility which began in 1976 has been considerably smaller in the 15-19 year age group than in any other age group. The data on numbers of children born to married women by age groups show that mothers have been giving birth at younger and younger ages.
Focus in this lecture is on national rather than international fertility trends and projections in developing countries. Attention is directed to the following: fertility determinants; macro-analysis of direct fertility determinants (crude birth rate and the total fertility rate); macro-analysis of indirect fertility determinants; micro-analysis of direct and indirect fertility determinants; the holistic analysis; practical guidelines for the preparation of fertility projections; and utilization of fertility analysis for projections. To prepare fertility projections it is necessary to learn as much as is humanly possible about fertility levels and trends. The task is to acquire a thorough knowledge of the trends themselves and to investigate determinants of fertility. The distinguishing feature of the direct determinants of fertility is that they have a direct influence on fertility: if a direct determinant, such as contraception changes, then fertility necessarily changes also. Much effort has gone into research on the indirect determinants of fertility and the literature is voluminous. Making use of all the amassed knowledge, 2 different approaches can be adopted: an attempt to formulate a set of long-range hypothetical fertility projections which will provide a suitable framework in which to place the most likely fertility projections; and an attempt to formulate a set of most likely future fertility trends only by extrapolating with the help of accumulated knowledge. Experience has shown that no guarantee exists that projected and actual future fertility will closely resemble each other. Thus it is necessary to compare actual fertility trends as they unfold with projected trends and revise projections accordingly. This author developed the 1st approach in which the set of hypothetical projections serves as a framework for the most likely projections. This set of projections has 4 distinguishing features: at 1 extreme a fertility projection is formulated which appears to be unrealistically low; at the other extreme a fertility projection is defined which appears to be unrealistically high; the 2 extreme fertility projections generate population projections which illustrate a "floor" and "ceiling" of future growth prospects for the population; and as a possible additional feature one ultimate general state for all projections can be defined, e.g., replacement level fertility under low mortality conditions. Most likely fertility projections can be defined either independently or within the framework of a hypothetical "floor" and "ceiling." The time period for which projections are needed is another important consideration, particularly for fertility projections.
Internal migration and subnational population projections.
Attention in this discussion of internal migration and subnational population projections is directed to the following: special problems related to subnational population projections; measurement of internal migration; place of residence "X" years ago; survival ratio method of estimation; place of birth survival ratio method of estimation; estimates of migration and mortality combined; projection of migration; and other methods of subnational population projections (ratio method, urban-rural population projection, and projection of population of individual cities). The attempt is made to answer 2 questions: what are the special problems related to subnational population projections and how are they resolved. The primary difference in projecting subnational populations as opposed to national populations is the relative importance of the migration component. Migration is not a significant component of national population in most countries and can be ignored in making population projections. This is not the case with subnational population growth. In almost all countries population growth rates vary significantly from 1 part of the country to another. Most areas in a country are simultaneously affected by both in and out migration, but population growth is not directly affected by in or out migration. It is their difference, or net migration, that increases or decreases an area's population. Migration data needed for population projections are the amount of net migration classified by age and sex interval for which the projections are to be made. The principal source of such data is the population census. A question on place of residence at a fixed prior date is the one that provides information on the temporal as well as spatial aspects of migration. Estimates of net migration by age and sex for a country's subregions can be made from census age distributions for 2 years without the use of any direct questions on migration. A problem with the use of the census survival ratio method of estimating migration is that the regional survival ratios may differ from the national ratios. For the purposes of subnational populations it is more convenient to estimate the combined effects of migration and mortality than to separate them. In the ratio method, one of the most widely used methods for projecting subnational populations, the ratio of a region's population to the total national population is calculated at 2 or more points in time. The ratio is then projected forward, using an estimated rate of its change. Then the projected ratio is multiplied by an independently obtained national population projection to derive the projected regional population total.
This discussion of labor force projections focuses on the following: components of variations in labor force dimensions; factors influencing trends of activity rates; base data; and projection methods. Labor force projections are one of the principal kinds of population-based projections used in economic and social planning. Concern in this lecture is with mehtods and problems in deriving labor force projections from population projections by sex and age groups, but some of the methodological principles are also applicable to projections of other population based variables. The importance of the influences of changing population structure and changing activity rates of each sex upon labor force growth is illustrated by estimates presented in a table. The estimated rates of growth of the total labor force in the world's less developed and more developed countries during the decades of 1950-1960 and 1960-1970 are decomposed into the effects of growth of the total population and the changes in the crude activity rates of males and females. It is clear that the growth of the labor force lagged behind the population growth, particularly in the less developed countries. This was the result of predominantly negative changes in the crude activity rate. On this account, the growth rate of the total labor force of the less developed countries for the 1950-1960 decade was only slightly higher than that of the more developed countries although population was growing much more rapidly in the less developed countries. In deriving labor force projections from given population projections by sex and age, the challenge is to find a suitable method for projecting trends of the corresponding specific activity rates. The minimum of data to serve as a satisfactory base for launching a labor force projection is a set of male and female age specific activity rates for at least 1 date in the recent past, usually derived from a population census or a demographic sampling survey. The UN manual on "Methods of Projecting the Economically Active Population" provides a detailed exposition, along with illustrative examples of the principal methods used for projecting activity rates. The main types of methods are reviewed briefly along with some considerations relevant to the selection of a method appropriate to a country's base data and conditions. The methods are: projections with constant activity rates, extrapolations, prototype projections, and regression and related methods.
In the 1st 2 sections of this report attention is directed to a review of the state of demographic data collection in English-speaking African countries and of problems in deriving estimates of basic demographic indicators form the generally scanty and defective data that are available. In the 3rd section projections are made of future population and problems encountered therein are reviewed. Some recommendations for improvement of demographic data collection, estimates, and projections for English-speaking African countries are included. The experience of a majority of African countries with demographic data collection has been limited primarily to censuses and sample surveys. There has been little development of other data collection systems such as civil or parish registration of vital events, dual record systems, and population registers. All the African countries have now taken at least 1 population census except Chad, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Zaire. The extent of experience with census-taking varies greatly from country to country. Fewer than 1/4 of the African countries have extended compulsory civil registration of vital events to cover the entire population. In the absence of reliable registration statistics of vital events most of the African countries have depended primarily on demographic sample surveys as a source of information on fertility and mortality as well as migration and aspects of population not represented by census data. Migration surveys have been conducted in several African countries. The reliability of estimates of the present size of population and its rate of growth is poor in most African countries. National population projections have been made in a number of African countries but no systematic review of these activities has been undertaken. Projections made by the UN Population Division are not an adequate substitute for projections prepared by appropriate agencies or institutions within each country to suit national conditions and needs. A major obstacle to the satisfactory development of population projection work in African countries, and a principal cause of weakness in the projections that are prepared, is lack of reliable estimates of the basic demographic indicators required as input to projection programs.
Working group 2, organized to deal with population projections, problems, and solutions in Asian, Pacific, and Latin American countries was composed of the countries of Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Samoa, Jamaica, and Peru. These countries differ widely in size and rate of population growth and in conditions of mortality, fertility, and migration, and they are unequal in the extent and quality of data available as a basis for population projections. This report is based on country reports prepared by the participants during the Workshop and on the discussions in the working group's sessions. In each of the 6 countries represented in the working group a population census was conducted around 1960 and 1970 and another census is scheduled for 1980 or 1981. Although each country has a system of registration of vital events, it is only in Peninsular Malaysia and Jamaica that the registration is nearly complete. Demographic surveys are a major source of data on population characteristics, fertility, and mortality in all 6 countries, and they serve, along with census data, as a basis for estimates of vital rates where birth and death registration is deficient. International migration is not demographically significant in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Peru. In Samoa and Jamaica, where emigration is important, the current statistics of arrivals and departures fail to provide a totally satisfactory account of the international migration component in population changes. The countries represented in this working group exhibit a wide range of levels of fertility, mortality, and population growth rates and diverse trends in the components of population growth during recent decades. The largest estimates of crude birthrates range from 42/1000 in Bangladesh down to 31 in Peninsular Malaysia and 27 in Jamaica. The measures of fertility and mortality levels derived from the vital registration systmes are highly accurate in Peninsular Malaysia and fairly accurate in Jamaica, but the estimates based on other sources of data for Bangladesh and Indonesia are relatively uncertain and those for Samoa and Peru are also subject to significant errors. An issue discussed in the working group was the use of adjusted or unadjusted data. The group recommended that the data collecting agencies should provide timely official adjustments of demographic data for such errors as underenumeration and misreporting of ages. There was much discussion of the problems in estimating international migration, particularly when much of it occurs illegally. The government of each country represented in the working group produces projections, at least of the total population by sex and age, using the component method. Some features of the projections for each country are summarized in a table.
This report dealing with problems and solutions in estimating and projection of population in Arab nations is essentially a summary of the discussion and conclusions of the working groups of participants from the Arab nations in the workshop. The countries represented in the group were Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Egypt. The report objectives are to review the conditions of demographic data collection, estimates and projections in the Arab region generally, to examine applications of some methods of evaluating, adjusting, and estimating basic demographic measures in the region, and to discuss major problems in making population projections for Arab countries. Only a few countries in the region have not yet conducted a single population census, but some countries have not published the results of their censuses. The 1980 round of censuses does seem to hold more promise. Throughout the region the registration of births, deaths, and marriages is either nonexistent or seriously incomplete. In the absence of satisfactory registration statistics, the population censuses and demographic sample surveys serve as major data sources on the components of population change. A major development in the region is the increasing use of demographic sample surveys. The working group recognized that basic demographic data are poorly developed on the whole in the region and that existing data are underutilized. Population projections require a thorough evaluation and adjustment of available data and a careful process of estimation in order to delineate the demographic profile of each country. The selection of assumptions with regard to future trends of fertility, mortality, and migration for the purpose of population projection is particularly difficult in the Arab region. This is because of the scarcity of information about past trends and because of the uncertainty in estimates of the present levels of all 3 parameters. The working group realized that early detection of an incipient trend in any of the 3 components of population change would aid in improving the reliability of a projection. A national program of demographic projections for planning purposes needs to include projections of the labor force and of school enrollments. In the Arab region, the educational statistics are among the best available sets of data. It is more of a problem to assess and project the labor force participation rates by age and sex. As population projections for the Arab countries are uncertain, short-term projections with frequent revisions are advisable.
Population projections in European countries. Report of Working Group 5.
Working group 5's discussions of the fertility and mortality components of population change were directed to methods and assumptions for projecting future trends and not to the evaluation, estimation, and adjustment of base-period measures. In regard to international and internal migration, the working group could not ignore the problems of establishing a satisfactory data base. Planning agencies in each country need and utilize population projections, and the preparation of official projections for periods ranging from 5-30 years has become a general practice in the European region since World War 2. Projections are needed irrespective of the socioeconomic system and whether a country has or does not have any explicit population policy. Governments that are more or less neutral in population policy must take the economic and social implications of population trends into account even if they have no interest in influencing them. Close cooperation exists among statistical, planning and health agencies in the field of population projections. The component method of population projections has been used for some time in each of the countries represented in this working group. Age specific period fertility rates are used as the starting point and the empirical basis for assumptions with regard to future fertility trends. The use of cohort measures cannot be considered as a universally valid prescription for fertility projections, but only as a supplementary method for overcoming the kind of problems with period measures. Strong interdependence between fertility and socioeconomic and cultural factors is observed in all countries represented in the group, but social differentials in fertility are generally decreased. In most instances, fertility is correlated negatively with income, social status and mobility, level of education, economic activity of women, and urban residence. Exceptions in these patterns are observed in some instances. Considering the complexity and uncertainty and the changeability of links between socioeconomic factors and fertility, the working group participants were of the opinion that these factors cannot be incorporated in projection methodology in the form of general mathematical models. Assumptions for future mortality are generally less important than fertility assumptions in their effects on the projected size and age-sex structure of the population, but in some European countries significant discrepancies were observed in recent years between previously projected and actual mortality trends. Among the countries represented in the working group, the Mediterranean countries are strongly affected by age-selective migration. The working group adopted several recommendations for improvement of projection assumptions with regard to internal migration.
Prostaglandins (PGs) are a family of long chain fatty acids which are produced by cells of the human body. Human seminal fluid contains large amounts of classical PGs belonging to the E and F series; per ml it contains about 270 mcg of 19-hydroxy-PGE, 60 mcg of PGE, 20 mcg of 19-hydroxy-PGF, and 7 mcg of PGF. The synthesis of PGs seems to be related to male androgen status; normal therapeutic doses of PG biosynthesis inhibitors reduce the amount of PGs in the semen. Several studies have shown that human males who are infertile for no apparent reason have significantly lower concentrations of PG than men of normal fertility. The precise mechanism by which seminal PGs may influence fertility is unknown; it has been suggested that they alter uterine motility after vaginal deposition and aid sperm transport. PGs may be involved in the regulation of the cycle changes of the cervical mucus and sperm penetration through the cervical canal. The process of follicular rupture requires the presence of PGs; PGF2alpha seems more important in this respect than PGE2. There is also evidence to support the idea that PGF2alpha is the uterine factor responsible for luteolysis; a direct PG action on intracellular luteal enzymes and an antigonadotropic effect of PGF2alpha have been suggested as possible models of action. Both PGE2 and PGF2alpha are present in human endometrium and several studies indicate an increased synthesis before menstruation; during late secretory phase and menstruation the concentration in the endometrium of endogenous PGF2alpha seems high enough to cause stimulation of uterine contractility. Both PGE and PGF compounds always stimulate the activity of the pregnant human uterus. Clinical use of PGs is common for: 1) 2nd trimester abortion with an overall success rate using PGE2 and PGF2alpha of as high as 95% and low rate of risk as well as ease of administration, 2) dilatation of the cervix prior to vacuum aspiration, and 3) menstrual regulation or early pregnancy termination for which the PGs cause increased uterine activity.
The basic rationale of an antifertility vaccine (AFV) is to intercept a step critical to successful reproduction through specific antibodies and/or sensitized cells by mobilizing an endogenous mechanism for a specific counterattack against one or more molecules. Immunointerception can be directed at more than one site in order to prevent pregnancy. It has been reported that BCG given at an appropriate dose in a single injection intratesticularly renders the semen free of motile sperm within 4 weeks in various mammals; neither the blood androgen values, the libido, or the responsiveness of the Leydig cells to the gonadotropin were diminished. An interference with spermatogenesis has also been tried by immunization against follicle-stimulating hormone. The possibilities for immunization in the female are: 1) anti-luteinizing release hormone immunization is of interest primarily in veterinary species with possibilities for applicaions to humans; 2) immunization of rabbits and rodents with ovarian or zona pellucida antigens together with Freund's complete adjuvant has been observed to reduce the fertility in rabbits and rodents by rendering the zona impermeable by spermatozoa, thus imposing a prefertilization block; 3) antisera against LDH-C4, a sperm isoantigen, has diminished the fertility of female rabbits, and it can be developed quickly for practical use; and 4) research on anti-human chorionic gonadotropin (anti-hCG) vaccines has developed several different approaches, including vaccines based on carboxy-terminal peptides of Beta-hCG; the vaccines have been shown to lack toxicity and Phase I clinical studies have indicated the lack of toxicity and side effects at least up to the antibody titre range attained so far. The main problem with the Pr-Beta-hCG-TT is the wide variability in immune responses from individual to individual. The immunogenicity must be further enhanced to ensure that the majority of the recipients develop high enough antibody titres to be protected against pregnancy and demands novel immunization strategies to overcome the variation between individuals.
Problems of data collection and analysis in small island countries.
There are problems of data collection and analysis in small island countries which are different from those encountered in the other developing countries. There are 5 million people in the South Pacific region with 3 million of them in Papua-New Guinea. The other 2 million are distributed over the other 21 countries in the region. In these small island countries it is necessary to have stock statistics (inventory of population at certain intervals) and flow statistics (which indicate changes in the stock). Stock statistics come from censuses and surveys while flow statistics come from vital registration, and family planning statistics. Demographic data is especially crucial in these countries so that planning can be done, implementation can be accomplished, and plans evaluated. The information should be readily available to anyone in a comprehensive format and possibly made available at a regional center to government planners, policymakers, and demographers. Stock statistics (censuses) must be comparable throughout the region and thus the content and format of the census questionnaire must be designed accordingly. A core questionnaire would aid in the selection of data to be collected, and then other questions can be added according to the needs of the individual country. In countries with small populations, demographic information can only be collected in a national census. The periodicity of the censuses has varied among countries. Since communication between islands is often infrequent, there must be greater reliance on trained field staff. All of this would be facilitated by government cooperation and coordination of activities. Processing and analysis of the data collected is essential and should be done as soon as possible after the census has been conducted. The census is not complete until the collected information is made avialable to potential users in a suitable format. The large problem with flow statistics is in the collection or registration of information. Questions on registration forms should be simple and clearly written. As with stock statistics, all flow statistics data should be processed and analyzed. Other important flow statistics pertain to migration; high moblity among the islanders has important social implications. There are few countries with adequate records of international migration. Good stock and flow statistics are important for the small island countries with a format and content comparable to other countries in the region.
Mortality situation in the South Pacific region.
Knowledge about mortality and morbidity in the South Pacific is poor. Even in countries where there exists a long history of data collection, the knowledge in these areas is incomplete and inaccurate. It is important to note that the recording of vital events is done mainly for legal and administrative purposes and any activities relevant to population statistics have little or no priority. Basically, the problems connected with the collection of death statistics in the South Pacific are not very different from those encountered in other developing countries. In particular, cause of death statistics are notoriously weak. Extremely inaccurate are the limited data on late fetal death, stillbirth, and neonatal death. Problems specific to this region are the wide dispersion of the populace over a large region and the problem of analysis and interpretation. Some countries have tried to overcome these problems by collecting vital statistics through sample surveys as well as by developing methods to detect and adjust for certain errors in death registration data. Clearly, the vital registration and medical registration data are not reliable for deriving estimates of mortality and morbidity; thus indirect methods must be depended upon based mainly on census data. Most of the censuses carried out prior to World War 2 were only simple head counts and did not provide information necessary for indirect estimates of mortality. Intercensal growth annual rates did offer a rough estimate of the mortality situation. Postwar mortality estimates were more reliable since census data were available from which mortality estimates could be derived through indirect methods. Mortality declined significantly through this time. Child and infant mortality varies within the different sections of the South Pacific. It is now becoming increasingly more difficult to obtain accurate estimates of adult mortality in this part of the world. Most estimates are derived by means of the "orphanhood" techniques derived by Brass and Hill. Little information is available on differential mortality in the area. The nonindigenous components of the population are too small to allow for meaningful analysis and ethnic groups are often defined differently. It is now feasible to estimate infant and child mortality by certain characteristics of the mothers. It seems that in most countries, the male mortality rates at all ages are higher than the female. There appears to be enough evidence from parts of this region that the general decline in mortality has been accomplished by a change from infectious and parasitic diseases to chronic noncommunicable disorders. This, however, may not yet be so in the high mortality countries.
Population policies of the small island countries of the ESCAP/SPC region.
Population policy is defined as population-influencing policies where government actions are intended to influence population growth, size, distribution, and composition. Population and development are clearly interrelated as population variables influence development and are influenced by them. National development plans of countries in the ESCAP region are a major source of information in this document. Most plans ranged from 3-5 years. Another information source has been Volume 2 of the World Population Trends and Policies. Development plans, even if never fully implemented, help understand the perceptions of various population problems, provide an indication of the uses of demographic data, and are of interest in and of themselves. A policy implies the existence of goals and usual population policies attempt mainly to improve human welfare. Clearly, different countries treat population policies differently in their development plans. Since per capita income is no longer considered as an adequate indicator of development or human welfare, a new area of policy initiative has become the basic needs policy. Demographic changes must be taken into account when planning development programs. It is important to examine development plans to see if they recognize the existence of numerous important problems. There is an indication of recognition of population problems in the development plans of the ESCAP countries, problems related to natural increase. Most of the plans recognize high dependency ratio as a problem and many others see that high population growth places pressure on health and other services. A particular problem in urban areas is population pressure on housing. Fiji, Papua-New Guinea, Tonga, and Western Samoa considered their rates of natural increase to be too high and felt that intervention was necessary to reduce their rates. Migration-related problems are highlighted. Those ESCAP countries which support family planning do so for demographic reasons and tend to integrate it into health services.
Outlines the development of the "wealth flows" theory of fertility decline, as it has been tested and refined against 3rd World populations and against western historical data. The theory emphasizes the fundamental nature of social and economic relations within the family, pointing out how subtle changes in the former can have a profound effect on the latter. Also highlights the importance of micro studies in demographic work, and the need for applying scientific method to the study of fertility transition. The dynamics of fertility change in Australia from the late 19th century to the present, and in contemporary western and 3rd World countries is explored; emphasis is placed on alterations in the relative position of the sexes in terms of family change. The "wealth flows" theory asserts that fertility decline is the result of changes in the family's internal economic structure and that high fertility, per se, has not been an economic disadvantage throughout most of the world's history.
Nutrition and early teenage pregnancy.
The effects of nutrition on early pregnancy are explored. The literature is examined, with particular emphasis placed on nutrition and adolescent growth and sexual maturation, maternal nutrition and fetal development, malnutrition and pregnancy outcome, nutritional assessment of pregnant adolescents, and the biochemical assessment of the neonate and infant nutritional status. Conclusions drawn include that there appears to be a relationship between the nutritional status of the pregnant teenager, the birthweight of her newborn, and perinatal infant and maternal morbidity and mortality. Pregnant teenage girls of low socioeconomic status are at high risk for malnutrition, and the risk appears to be greater for those teenagers who are biologically immature.
A review of studies concerning neonatal outcome in teenage pregnancy. Only those studies that included 500 or more teenage mothers in the sample were analyzed by the authors. The growth and maturity of offspring of the teenage mothers and mortality and morbidity among the births are topics of specific discussion. The studies indicate that whenever there is a difference between neonates born to teenage mothers and offspring of adult mothers, there is an increased incidence of low birth weight in infants born to the teenagers. Neonatal mortality for infants of teenage mothers is also increased. The effect of teenage pregnancy on infant morbidity is not clear, due to small sample sizes that were used in most studies.
Early development of the preterm offspring of teenage mothers.
Development follow-ups and intervention have not been specifically directed to the preterm infants of teenage mothers. The study discussed was designed to follow the development of preterm as compared to fullterm infants born to teenage mothers, as well as preterm and fullterm infants born to adult mothers, and to assess the effects of intervention provided for a subsample of the preterm teenage mothers and their offspring. Biweekly home based interventions were provided and developmental assessments were made at birth and at 4-month intervals over the 1st year. The subjects of the study were 4 groups of 150 experimental and control infants and their mothers entered into the project over the course of 5 months. All of the mothers are black, lower income teenagers and adults. Multivariant and univariate analysis of the variance and subsequent multiple comparisons were performed. Results of the study include that the teenage mother and her offspring are at somewhat greater risk than adult mother-infant dyads during the early period of development. Teenage mothers appeared to have more obstetric problems, and their infants more postnatal complications.
A comprehensive approach to adolescent pregnancy.
The Johns Hopkins Adolescent Pregnancy program is described. It provides comprehensive care to the young mother during pregnancy, and to the mother/child dyad (and the young father wherever possible), for 3 years after delivery. Family planning services, education, and supplies are integral parts of the program. Preliminary results of the program are presented. In particular, it appears that the addition of intensive psychosocial and educational services to the good routine prenatal care provided during the pregnancy, labor and delivery with the center's help meets the program objective of improving the health of mothers and babies at least during the period of pregnancy.
Socio-economic influences on the fertility decline in Korea.
Examines the influence of social and economic changes on the fertility decline in Korea. Korean economic development since the end of Japanese colonial domination is sketched, depicting an egalitarian social and economic structure. The pattern and mechanisms of fertility decline are traced through the same period. The roles of changing marriage patterns, desired family size, changes in contraceptive practice, and abortion in the fertility decline that Korea experienced in 1960-1974 are analyzed. Hypotheses are then framed which relate the socioeconomic changes and new egalitarian society to the fertility decline. The emergence of alternatives to children as sources of economic security for the family, educational development, urbanization and migration, and increased female work participation are hypothesized to have contributed to the fertility decline. A multivariate statistical model is used to test and quantify the hypotheses and findings of the preceding section. The results of the analysis support the earlier discussion. Further models are constructed to explain why the socioeconomic changes led to rapid fertility decline and to examine fertility differences among socioeconomic groups.
The endangered sex: neglect of female children in rural North India.
Considers the demographic phenomenon of the markedly imbalanced male/female sex ratios occuring in the northwestern region of rural India, and among upper class groups in particular. Information from ethnographic studies on rural India and also from numerous censuses over the past 100 years is called on to explain the noticeably higher mortality rate among girls. In light of the now outdated practice of female infanticide in the 19th century, similar regional and social patterns of sex ratio imablance attest to the substitution of the more subtle practice of neglect and descrimination against female children. Female children suffer discrimination in feeding, in receipt of medical attention, and in nurturing. In examining this phenomenon, the author compares the roles of sons and daughters, in terms of parental expectation of support and the desirability of heirs for groups living in the north and south of India. The low use of female labor for agriculture in the former society, as well as the great expense involved in marrying off daughters are pointed out as factors accounting for the low regard in which female children are held, and for their subsequent maltreatment.
This book discusses in simple terms and with numerous illustrations the causes of female infertility, the use of the basal temperature chart, and the interpretation of changes in cervical mucus. The normal process of ovulation and conception is explained, the sequence of events and hormonal changes in the menstrual cycle is outlined, and the timing of ovulation is discussed. Causes of reduced fertility including scarred fallopian tubes, low sperm count, post-pill amenorrhea, incompatible mucus, hormonal imbalance, anovulatory cycles, amenorrhea, inadequate cervical mucus, endometriosis, dietary deficiencies, and age are discussed, and available treatments are described where appropriate. The basal temperature chart is explained and diagrammed, instructions are provided for reading the basal thermometer, and several examples of basal temperature charts are presented and interpreted. Changes in cervical mucus and their use as indicators of maximal fertility are described. Some suggestions are offered on timing of intercourse to improve changes of conception based on the basal body temperature and the cervical mucus.
Focus in this discussion of the IUD is on the following: factors to be considered when prescribing an IUD for contraception (patient motivation, contraindications, selection of IUD and special indications, and special considerations); patient counseling; minor side effects; the technique of IUD insertion; continuing care of women using IUDs; complications; situations to be considered and explored in the case of the "lost" IUD; IUD removal; and management of the IUD in pregnancy. The IUD is a safe and effective contraceptive method. It has one of the highest continuation rates of any of the currently available prescription methods, and about 75% of women will continue to use the IUD through the 1st year. To insure patient participation in the decision making process as to her most appropriate contraceptive method, it is important for the physician to provide her with information covering the relative effectiveness of various methods and their benefits and risks. The technique of IUD insertion varies with the type of IUD. A list of suggested general steps for insertion is included. Women should be reexamined within 3 months after insertion. Thereafter, annual examinations with appropriate medical and laboratory evaluations should be performed. If the string is visible and the IUD appears to be properly placed, it should not be disturbed. Acute pelvic inflammatory disease is a complication that may develop. Some mild infections can be treated with appropriate antibiotics with the IUD in place. If serious infection develops, culture and sensitivity should be obtained from the endocervix. The early symptoms of progressive endometrial infection occurring with an IUD are foul-smelling leukorrhea, premenstrual bloating, dyspareunia, intermenstrual bleeding, and hypermenorrhea. 3 potential situations must be considered and explored in cases of a "lost" IUD, i.e., pregnancy, unnoticed expulsion, and perforation. A desired pregnancy or patient request are elective reasons for IUD removal. Indicated reasons for removal would include pelvic pain and/or cramping, abnormal bleeding, pregnancy (string visible), uncontrolled pelvic infection, and replacement of medicated device. Simple removal of an IUD is usually accomplished at pelvic examination by traction on the string of the IUD with forceps.
The author considers the 1890 American Indian Ghost Dance movement as a demographic revitalization attempt to recover population losses. The effect of tribal population characteristics on participation in the movement is examined, with particular attention to changes in tribal size prior to and at the time of the Dance (ANNOTATION)
Post-World War II immigration to the United States: America's latest newcomers.
During the 1920s, Congress drastically curtailed immigration from Europe and barred Asians. The Johnson-Reed Act of 1924 completed the restictions and established the national origins system. After World War II, Congress reaffirmed that system with the enactment of the McCarran-Walter Act in 1952. But Congress also began to liberalize immigration policy, largely on a piecemeal basis. In 1965, Congress repealed the national origins quotas and restrictions against Asians and substituted a preference system based upon family unification, occupations, and refugee status. Still other changes in the 1970s modified the immigration laws further and permitted additional immigrants to enter. The changes in policy led to an increase in the number of immigrants arriving and also led to shifting patterns of immigration. Immigrants coming after 1945 were more apt to be refugees and to be of higher skills than before. And the majority were now female. From 1945 to 1965, most European immigrants were from northern and western European countries, but by the 1970s, southern and eastern European nations supplied the bulk of European immigrants to America. After 1965 another important shift was apparent: Third World nations replaced Europe as the major sending regions, and by the late 1970s, the vast majority of America's latest newcomers were from the Third World. (author's)
The author examines some of the needs of non-English-speaking citizens of the United States, with a focus on the difficulties involved in defining the foreign language population. The use of U.S. censuses and the 1976 Survey of Income and Education to measure language use at local geographic levels for various languages is described. Data are provided for the foreign language population on household language use, mother tongue, age, U.S. or foreign birth, year of immigration, percent distribution, and knowledge of English (ANNOTATION)
Prenatal care and pregnancy outcome in an HMO and general population: a multivariate cohort analysis
The authors compare prenatal care and pregnancy outcome among members of a health maintenance organization (HMO) and the general U.S. population using data from live birth and infant death records for the 1973-1974 live birth cohort in the Portland, Oregon, area. The effects of selected socio-demographic characteristics, medical-obstetric risk factors, and use of prenatal care on pregnancy outcome are analyzed (ANNOTATION)
Simulation of the effects of changing population size on the genetic structure of Western Ireland
"During the 1800's, the population of Ireland underwent a rapid increase and subsequent decrease in population size. The effects of this change upon population structure were assessed using a simulation of the isolation by distance model and comparing the results to those obtained assuming constant population size." (EXCERPT)
Some further observations on the index of residential differentiation
"The relationship between the index of residential differentiation (RDI), a recently introduced measure of residential segregation which is designed to summarize the distribution of c social groups in a single index, the indices of dissimilarity (D) and segregation (SI) is examined. It is demonstrated that RDI is a natural extension of D, and that when c = 2, RDI = D; when C [greater than] 2, it is possible to stipulate RDI in terms of SI, but it is not possible to stipulate RDI in a straightforward manner in terms of D. An adjusted RDI is then suggested in which random segregation rather than complete desegregation is used as the baseline." (EXCERPT)
A generalized index of dissimilarity
"The index of dissimilarity can be interpreted as the ratio of the number that must be moved from cells of excess to cells of deficit to achieve even distribution. This interpretation is used to generalize the index in two directions. First, the index and a test of significance are made available for explorations of cells of a two-way contingency table. DISSIM is the name of a computer program which provides these calculations for contingency tables." (EXCERPT)
Appraisal and adjustment methods for demographic census data.
The author describes the general principles of editing, appraisal, and adjustment of population census data. Appraisal techniques and methods of adjustment are explored, with separate consideration of age and sex, children ever born, children surviving, data of most recent live birth, maternal orphanhood, widowhood, and deaths by age and sex in the last 12 months (ANNOTATION)
Census 1981: an historical and international perspective
The author discusses the United Kingdom's 1981 population census in its historical context and compares it with censuses in Australia, Canada, France, and the United States. In Part 1 of the article, the broad structure of the census is discussed. Information is included on the choice of the household as the unit of enumeration, who is counted on the census form, and the topic content of the census. In Part 2, past and current census methods and technology are reviewed (ANNOTATION)
Catalog of public use data tapes from the National Center for Health Statistics
In this catalog, the data tape program of the National Center for Health Statistics is described, and a general description of each file is provided, such as content, scope, and source of data. Specific details on record length, block size, number of records is also provided. The catalog includes a price list and order form. Information is included on tapes containing data on natality, mortality, marriage, and divorce, and data from the National Survey of Family Growth, the National Natality Surveys, the National Infant Mortality Survey, and the National Mortality Survey
Potential constitutional issues raised by the proposed amendments to the Georgia abortion statute.
The statutory provisions in Georgia relating to abortion provide a general prohibition at this time against the performance of abortions by any person, punishable by imprisonment for not less than 1 or more than 10 years, together with several exceptions designed to authorize abortions performed by duly licensed physicians, based on their best clinical judgment that an abortion is necessary. Also authorized are abortions performed during the 2nd and 3rd trimesters, if performed in licensed abortion facilities and, in the case of abortions performed during the 3rd trimester, if performed on the basis of the certifications of the performing physician and 2 consulting physicians that the abortion is required to preserve the woman's life or health. If the Georgia legislature enacts House Bill No. 300, the present Georgia abortion provisions will be substantially enlarged. This bill would impose significant requirements on the physician performing an abortion. Certain provisions of this Bill, if enacted, may raise interesting constitutional issues. The proposed amendments address a perceived need on the part of the Georgia General Assembly to prohibit certain conduct and abuses relating to abortion without restricting a woman's right to obtain an abortion. The amendments would add 3 new Code sections: the 1st section would impose a prohibition on the performance of an abortion by a physician unless the physician obtained the woman's written informed consent; the 2nd new section would prohibit any person or business entity from soliciting, offering, or receiving any kickbacks or bribes in connection with the performance of an abortion, or receiving any rebate or fee for the referral of an individual to another person in connection with the provision of an abortion; and the 3rd new section would require that a physician who diagnoses a woman as having complications resulting from an abortion report his/her diagnosis and a summary of the woman's physical symptoms to the commissioner of the Department of Human Resources. Numerous constitutional issues have been raised as a result of efforts by state legislatures to impose restrictions on the rights of women to obtain abortion. An analysis of some of these constitutional issues--informed consent, parental consent, court procedure, and reporting requirements--are reviewed in the context of the restrictions which would be imposed if the Georgia Bill were to be enacted into law. As a general rule, the U.S. Supreme Court has held that a requirement imposed by a state that written consent be obtained prior to the performance of an abortion is not constitutional. Yet, the courts have been very careful in analyzing the specific details required to be included in the informed consent. The requirement that a pregnant minor obtain parental consent to an abortion has been constitutionally upheld if and only if it provides an alternative procedure whereby authorization for the abortion can be obtained, yet states have run into difficulties in connection with the specific provisions of the "alternate procedure." In general, courts have upheld abortion statutes containing reporting requirements, primarily because the submission of abortion reports has been found not to be unconstitutionally burdensome.
Social and economic implications of cancer in the United States
The authors examine the magnitude of the economic and social costs of cancer for society, with particular reference to the United States. Data are presented on deaths from neoplasms in 1975 by age, sex, and cancer site, and color (ANNOTATION)
[De facto population estimates and the demographic of nonresident population]
The author presents a report on the first 18 months of activity of the vital registration program, which covers approximately half of Nepal's 13 million people. The institutional framework of the program is described, and a preliminary evaluation is made of the quality of fertility, mortality, nuptiality, and socioeconomic data (ANNOTATION)
Families maintained by female householders, 1970-79
This report provides U.S. data on female householders with no husband present and their families during the decade of the 1970s. Data are included on characteristics such as age, race, Spanish origin, number and age of children, place of residence, marital status, education, employment status, occupation, mobility, and income (ANNOTATION)
The author uses 1975 census data to examine nuptiality patterns in the Ivory Coast according to region, ethnic group, and rural or urban residence. Nuptiality tables are derived, and information on the proportion of never-married persons by age and sex, probabilities of marriage, mean age at first marriage, and polygamy is discussed (ANNOTATION)
The use of population projections to allocate public funds
The author reviews recent efforts by various U.S. federal committees and task forces to create a standard set of population projections for sub-national areas and to develop guidelines and procedures for using these projections to distribute federal funds (ANNOTATION)
Changes in infant mortality and related rates by health service area: 1969-73 to 1974-77
This report updates that cited in 43: Title 3859 concerning the uses of infant mortality data for health planning at the local level. The data are updated through 1977, and some additional perspectives on geographic variations in U.S. infant mortalty are presented (ANNOTATION)
[Bolivia: recent internal migration according to the 1976 national census]
The author examines the volume, origin, destination, and some charcteristics of migratory movements in Bolivia between 1971 and 1976, with a focus on interdepartmental and inter-provincial migration. General characteristics of Bolivia are outlined, and the historical process of population distribution is traced. Data for 1971-1976 are included on the distribution of interdepartmental migrants by place of residence, the annual rate of migration for departments and provinces by sex, and the number of migrants by department. Migrants are characterized according to sex, occupational status, and type of employment. Data are from the 1976 national census
The author describes the design specifications, sample design and characteristics, and procedures for estimating population parameters and sampling variances for Cycle II of the National Survey of Family Growth, whose purpose is to collect data on natality and the process of family formation and dissolution in the United States. In Cycle II, conducted in 1976, a sample of 8,611 U.S. women aged 15-44 who were currently married, previously married, or never-married mothers with offspring living in the household at the time of the survey was interviewed (ANNOTATION)
Observation of family planning accomplishment in West Kalimantan.
An investigation of the accomplishments of the Family Planning Program of West Kalimantan. The sampling group included set numbers of family planning workers and community inhabitants of 2 coastal and 2 rural areas. 2 villages from 2 subdistricts of each area were examined, giving a total of 16 study sites. The community sample included 5 current family planning users, 5 terminating users, and 5 nonusers from each village. 240 persons from the community in total were sampled. Questionnaires, interviews, and direct observations were used to collect data. The objectives of the study were: to determine the level of information dissemination, motivational activities, and problems encountered at the family planning clinics, mobile teams, and village outposts; to identify factors influencing community acceptance, participation in and dropout from the family planning program; to determine the methods used in recording and reporting family planning information; and to examine the communication and cooperation between the various groups within the family planning organization. Several hypotheses were tested concerning acceptance, such as influence of number and education of family planning workers and the amount of honorarium they accept on recruitment. Acceptor distance from the clinic or outpost and its affect on termination was investigated. Conclusions indicated that problems arose because of poor communications and distances between family planning centers. Coordination between different groups of the organization was poor. Suggestions included that a map of the program centers be developed, and that exisiting centers should be completed.
Argues that "selective primary health care" in reality represents the kind of traditional, vertical, categorically specific, hierarchically organized, discrete disease control program that integrated primary health care was designed to replace. The comments briefly distinguish between vertical and integrationist health care schemes and trace the evolution of perspectives toward 3rd World underdevelopment which form the context for views on health care systems. The paper takes issue with the views of Walsh and Warren that comprehensive health services cannot be afforded, since huge investments in health are already being made in developing countries; with their criteria for establishing priorities for health care; and with the empirical evidence they muster in support of their arguments. The paper further argues that the gain in efficiency expected by Walsh and Warren when the range of activities provided is narrow is largely illusory, and that it would be difficult to deny unapproved activities to a needy population. The earlier paper does not adequately consider the wider developmental process, the historical experiences of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, or relevant social science findings, all of which are necessary for the development of a satisfactory approach.
These rejoinders to critiques of the original paper by Walsh and Warren note that, despite criticism, there was substantial implied support for their approach of determining cost effectiveness priorities for the core of primary health care programs. Warren points out that, despite arguments for the acceptability of a health strategy in terms of meeting perceived needs, perceived needs and interventions at the village level often bear no relationship to any of the major disease categories. Walsh argues that the original approach delineated by her and Warren in their paper was only intended to provide the best possible care on an interim basis until the infrastructure is in place to make possible the provision of the truly comprehensive primary health care services envisioned at Alma Ata. Their basic approach can be modified to take into account particular goals, local cultural conditions, etc. Lipkin restates the argument of Warren and Walsh and enumerates specific criticisms of their approach which do not in his opinion accurately reflect their position. He also advances evidence showing that selective approaches can be highly successful.
The role of breast-feeding in psychosexual development and the achievement of the genital phase.
Aspects of the effect on the child's development of the experience of being breastfed are discussed. The neurohormone oxytocin is a factor in coitus, birth, breastfeeding, the milk-ejection reflex, nipple erotism, and female sexual responsiveness. The attributes of empathy, consideration, confidence, and love that constitute the capacity of motherliness are dependent on the level of psychosexual, ego, and superego maturity of the mother as well as on the pattern of mothering she experienced as a child. Without satisfaction of the oral hunger-satiation cycle, serious ego constriction results regardless of maternal environment. Bottle feeding may satisfy the basic physiological hunger-satiation cycle and fulfill to some extent the libidinal requirements of the oral phase, but only breastfeeding can provide the experience of the original primal scene on which the later primal scene is based. Breastfeeding capacity in itself is not necessarily an indication however, that psychosexual maturity and the genital phase have been achieved by the mother.
Matching user needs in health care.
Outlines patterns of library service available to users in the (British) National Health Service (NHS); gives preliminary results of a study detailing the character of the library system users, the nature of their needs and the degree to which the library system output meshes with user needs. The NHS library system is composed of widely scattered but small libraries, many of which can be characterized according to the narrow range of needs they serve. The largest libraries of the system, the teaching hospital library, share features of the NHS and university library systems. The most numerous, however, are the postgraduate medical education center libraries and nurse training school libraries. Until recently, there had been no cohesive organizational structure uniting the facilities and services of these various library groups. Regional library systems dating from 1967 have sought to encourage collaboration among libraries and to take into account user needs in policy planning. Recent research into medical libraries conducted by the British Library Research and Development Department points out the need for medical students and doctors to be able to adapt themselves to extracting needed information from any library which they might need to use during their career. Data showed that both clinical and preclinical medical personnel use a wide range of libraries, and are most satisfied with a multifunction library. Interpretation of data was undertaken within a conceptual framework of modelling developed by Checkland which provides a structure for thinking about the system. It is hoped that this approach will help to identify the sort of model of users which the library must maintain in order to provide them with the services they desire.
Growth without migration: towards a model for integrated regional/rural development planning.
Examines conventional attitude that mass rural-urban migration is an inevitable accompaniment of economic development. Considering the physical and social problems caused by mass urbanization the question is posed: Is growth possible without migration? The experience of Israel, which absorbed 560,000 immigrants during the 1st 3 years of its existence by creating rural settlements, is drawn upon. The study of these settlements by the Settlement Study Center in Rehovot led to the development of the Rehovot Approach to comprehensive and integrative regional planning. 2 examples of Israeli experience--kibbutz industries and integrated regional development of Lakhish--are described as illustrations of the Rehovot Approach. The construction of a computer model based on this approach which would guide planning processes to reduce rural exodus and preserve traditional, social and cultural patterns is discussed.
Reviews the evaluation of population estimates in "Estimating Population and Income of Small Area," the final report of the Panel on Small Area Estimates of Population and Income. This panel was established by the US National Research Council with a mandate to evaluate the Census Bureau's procedures for making postcensal estimates of population and per capita income for local areas. Their final report, the subject of this review, was published by the National Academy Press in 1980. While finding the Panel's report a useful contribution to discussions regarding measurement of error the authors quarrel with the measure of error introduced and used by the panel as a test of accuracy of an estimation method, and the panel's recommendation, based in part on that measure, that the Census Bureau choose not to estimate population for certain size classes of places. The authors analyze the panel's measure of error in theoretical and empirical contexts and illustrate the inequity that might arise were population estimates made according to the panel's recommendations. Finally, the authors propose for examination other measures of the error of estimating change.
A workshop attended by 34 representatives of 27 private voluntary organizations was held in April 1982 to compare the advantages and disadvantages of vertical and integrated health projects. This report is an edited synopsis of the final presentation and group discussions of the workshop. The major topics examined include program setting, community involvement and program design, constraints on integration, and political issues. Major themes are identified and conclusions and recommendations presented. Integration was found to be a way of life at the village level, and the design and management of integrated programs need to reflect the interrelation of nutrition, health, water supply, income generation, and family planning. True community involvement must be sought beginning in the earliest feasibility assessment. Approaches to selection of community workers should be culture and situation-specific, but some generalizations have been found through experience to be useful. Income-generating activities are extremely important despite their difficulty. Despite ethical questions raised by working within politically repressive governments and grossly inequitable economic systems, such work may be justifiable because the needs of the poorest people in such settings are likely to be the greatest. Project planning and implementation should be carried out with existing constraints in mind and should work toward the goal of an ongoing program. These issues and general principles have definite program implications for donor agencies and PVOs.
Health and developing problems in development countries must be examined against their usual background of poverty and inequity. Limited programs focused on priority needs have greatest impact in such settings than more comprehensive programs that are over extended. Common features of good programs should be identified and incorporated where appropriate into new programs. Implications of specific elements of the program setting must be considered in planning. The geography and topography of a district and its transportation system, settlement patterns and availability of water are significant aspects of the physical setting that will influence program success. Within the political system, political will is often cited as an essential element for improved services. Political leaders often need convincing demonstrations that primary health care is feasible within local constraints. Linkages with the offical programs and good logistic support are other necessary political elements. Important elements of the social setting that require consideration include the social structure, community leaders, local patterns of socioeconomic development, the status of women, traditional health workers and health beliefs, educational levels and literacy rates, and educational methods. Poverty is an overriding feature of the economic setting; health programs that promote better deployment of community health resources and income-generating activities are particularly helpful. Provision of substantial support over a sufficient time to allow good program development is also necessary.
The importance of community involvement.
Many problems of the rural masses are interrelated, such as illiteracy, poverty, disease, and civic inertia. Finding solutions to them will require development or strengthening of community-level organizations, which in turn will require active participation of the community in planning, implementing, and evaluating projects. Private organizations with limited resources should concentrate on developing techniques and methods for development in collaboration with the community. The best methods can later be implemented more widely by national agencies. A project of the International Institute of Rural Reconstruction in the Philippines, which had limited impact when community participation was minimal but became much more influential after the program was redesigned to reflect the concerns of the people and to stress solutions based on the community, illustrates the important of active community involvement. PVOs and donor agencies should not try to rush development projects which depend upon community development but should allow time for the process to unfold within the community.
4 projects of the Catholic Relief Services in Latin America illustrate the importance of community participation in the planning and implementation of integrated programs. CRS representatives and Indian farmers in the high desert of Bolivia cooperated to develop a system for marketing quinua, a high altitude grain resembling wheat whose use is now encouraged by the government to cut down on wheat imports. Another successful project was development of a women's agricultural project in the north of Peru by a Peruvian sociologist, the head of the local chapter of Caritas, and local women, using resources and labor contributed by local people. 6 agricultural substations were built to test crops and farming techniques, and assistance was provided in small animal raising. A project designed to provide clean water for 1000 people failed when no one was able to fix the pump and another project, designed to sponsor mobile health teams that failed because the designers lacked knowledge of local diseases and because outreach workers were selected for their political connections rather than their interest or aptitude for the work demonstrate the pitfalls of neglecting community involvement. Experience with the 4 projects indicates that it is crucial to draw on local experience and expertise and involve local organizations where possible, as well as to provide technical training and support.
Special constraints facing integrated programs, while not insurmountable, should be recognized at the outset of a project. The success of integrated programs often depends on how well participating agencies collaborate and coordinate their efforts, and care must be taken not to overburden projects with different funding, monitoring, and reporting systems. Self sufficiency should be a goal in all projects, and communities should be helped to plan for it from the outset and expected to contribute labor, materials, or money. Horizontal communication and coordination must be developed in integrated programs although the larger structures of which they are part are likely to be organized vertically. The processes of conducting needs assessments and resource allocation within governments are generally undertaken in a sectarian fashion and creation of systems more appropriate to integrated programs is often slow and difficult. The orientation of donors and organizers will affect decisions on where to base projects and will also influence evaluation. The fears of being taken over sometimes held by smaller agencies are another barrier to collaboration. More patience and commitment are necessary for integrated programs, and the benefits of integration are less obvious at higher levels of administration. Lack of managerial skills and of time and ability to document and disseminate findings by program staff, lack of knowledge of local conditions in the initial planning, and lack of infrastructure are other common problems faced by integrated programs.
A project funded by the population branch of an international agency to encourage the organization of economic cooperatives for rural women in Bangladesh experienced several of the constraints typical of integrated programs. The dual nature of the project, which also included family planning education, created confusion at the administrative level and among village women. Lack of realism in planning, failing to allow sufficient time for training, and use of an overly rigid budget system were other problems. Although integration of the women's project into the existing rural development institute created tensions, it was aided by existence of functioning management and administrative systems and of established contacts in the villages, and it exceeded its original goals in terms of number of cooperatives established and extent of contraceptive usage. Efforts to build on the success of the original project by adding new activities have had mixed results, determined largely by the willingness of workers to tolerate the frustrations and difficulties built into the system. The case of the Bangladesh program demonstrates the rewards of successfully dealing with the constraints.
Political and ethical considerations.
The philosophy behind integration implies that there are no easy solutions to the problems of the world's poor. Experience has indicated for example that child feeding programs in the absence of broad maternal and child health care are largely futile. The need is for sensibly integrated programs with broad community involvement, especially on the part of mothers. Because programs such as Narangwal, Companiganj, and the promotora programs of Latin America are neither simple nor inexpensive to develop and maintain, political commitment to bettering the lives of the people is required if they are to succeed. The commitment of the government of Sri Lanka to meeting the basic need of all its people which existed through the mid-1970s was matched by lower rates of malnutrition and infant mortality and a lower birth rate than in other countries with similar per capita gross national products. Cutbacks in major human services ordered by a new government in the late 1970s under the influence of the International Monetary Fund were followed by increases in malnutrition in many parts of the country and an apparent upturn in the birth rate. The political climate of a government affects the probability of success of a program, and it is a factor to be considered before a decision is made to work in a country.
Integrated programs and the U.S. Congress.
Although Congress has repeatedly endorsed the concept of integration of programs since passage of the New Directions legislation in 1973 and has increasingly recognized the interrelatedness of various problems in the 3rd World, its desire to find simple answers has not entirely disappeared. The need for financial accountability creates pressure to fund categorical programs, and the Agency for International Development is somewhat reluctant to combine funds from separate budget lines for integrated projects. Despite obstacles to integration, the general belief in Congress is that integration makes sense. The outlook for development funding is not bright given the emphasis of the Reagan Administration on security assistance, and health is a low priority within the Administration both domestically and in international assistance. Efforts to cut back international population funds appear to have been fought off successfully. Although some members of Congress have begun to realize that programs which truly involve the community take longer to get into operation than other programs, appropriations committees which want to see quantifiable results within a reasonable period of time may apply pressure on AID, which in turn pressures the people running the program.
Explicit and implicit government policies on major demographic issues through 4 historical periods are reviewed. There were no explicit government policies on population during the traditional period (1392-1910), the colonial period (1910-1945), or the transitional period (1945-1961), although government programs such as compulsory innoculations and establishment of hospitals contributed to a decline in mortality during the early part of this century. Migration, repatriation and inflow of refugees were major components of population change which resulted from government policies during Japanese domination and the 2nd World War. Explicit demographic policies were 1st adopted in coordination with economic development planning the the early 1960s. The aim was to control population growth through family planning and overseas migration. More recently a comprehensive fertility control policy (1976) and population redistribution plan (1977) were announced in which population problem areas were identified and explicit population policy goals specified. Since then Korean population policy has been characterized by an integrated approach to family planning and migration policy designed to assist the economic development process.
Medico-legal aspects of sterilization for mentally disabled persons.
The commitment to making voluntary sterilization available to all has generally not included the individual who is mentally disabled. Too few governments have taken a legal stand on this issue; in the US, for example, only 24 states provide for legal sterilization of the mentally disabled. The statutes vary in their provisions, allowing various agents to initiate sterilization proceedings, and in some cases making no distinction between mental illness and mental retardation. The Department of Health and Human Services has not satisfactorily come to terms with this difficult question and has chosen instead to simply refuse federal funding for sterilization of those judged to be mentally incompetent, a decision which discriminates against the indigent mentally incompetent. The Association for Voluntary Sterilization has recently prepared a model voluntary sterilization act aimed at permitting voluntary sterilization for all adults capable of giving informed consent. The question of informed consent, however, is problematic and has not been resolved to anyone's complete satisfaction. The AVS model statute authorizes voluntary sterilization only, and does not apply to institutionalized individuals. Counseling is an integral part of this process, and minors are not considered to be good candidates for sterilization becuase of the possibilities for growth and change in the potential of mentally disturbed youth. AVS believes that the solution to the problem lies in the acceptance of guidelines which would make sterilization available to all, yet imposed on none.
Voluntary sterilization: can retarded young adults choose it?
It is argued by some groups that a mentally incompetent person is incapable of ever giving informed consent, and this argument is used as justification for withholding from them the option of sterilization. On the other hand, more liberal thinkers argue that no group of people should be categorically denied the benefits of sterilization. Too few governments have taken a legal stand on this issue; in the US, for example, only 24 states provide for legal sterilization of the mentally disabled. The statutes vary in their provision, allowing various agents to initiate sterilization proceedings, and in some cases making no distinction between mental illness and mental retardation. The Department of Health and Human Services has not satisfactorily come to terms with this difficult question and has chosen instead to simply refuse federal funding for sterilization of those judged to be mentally incompetent. This atmosphere of uncertainty regarding the rights and capabilities of the mentally incompetent contributes to an unwillingness on the part of health professionals to perform sterilization on such persons for fear of possible litigation. The Association for Voluntary Sterilization has recently prepared a model voluntary sterilization act aimed at permitting voluntary sterilization for all adults capable of giving informed consent. The AVS model statute authorizes voluntary sterilization only, and does not apply to institutionalized individuals. AVS believes that the solution to the problem lies in the acceptance of guidelines which would make sterilization available to all, yet imposed on none.
Role of the nurse-midwife in counseling for sterilization.
Sterilization is increasingly becoming the method of choice for fertility termination among certain couples, particularly where the desired family size has been achieved or where the woman is over 30 years of age. Technological advances in surgical procedures and an increased supply of nurse-midwives skilled in the techniques have simplified and made safe sterilization more available. With increasing acceptance rates for this method of fertility control has come a greater need for thorough and informed counseling of prospective acceptors. The trained nurse-midwife, with an extensive knowledge of the field and of the options available, is a likely candidate for the job. Situational variables must be closely attended to in determining the patient's suitability for sterilization and for suggesting direction in counselling. Counseling should include a summary of the risks and benefits involved and a realistic assessment of the possibilities for reversal of the procedure. In all cases, the aim is to secure a decision from an informed patient, free of undue stress or coercion.
Sterilization: an option for the disabled.
The availability of contraceptive sterilization without coersion or exclusion of any individual or group is an ideal which has yet to be reached. The dilemma of the mentally retarded or those judged mentally incompetent provides a clear example of our greatest failure in achieving this ideal. Worldwide, few countries have exact legal rulings on the issue. Those which do recognize the rights of parents or guardians to request sterilization for their mentally incompetent wards. Generally permission is granted on any of 3 grounds: 1) parental request, 2) for eugenic purposes, 3) incapability of responsible parenting. In the United States 24 states make some sort of provision for legal sterilization of the mentally incompetent on various grounds. The Association for Voluntary Sterilization has recently prepared a model voluntary sterilization aimed at permitting voluntary sterilization for all adults capable of giving informed consent. The question of informed consent, however, is problematic and has not been resolved to anyone's complete satisfaction. The AVS model statute authorizes voluntary sterilization only, and does not apply to institutionalized individuals. Counseling is an integral part of this process. The case of minors is considered particularly sensitive, since intervening years and growth may alter former assessment of mental capability. Sterilization is therefore not recommended for mentally handicapped minors. AVS believes that the solution to the problem lies in the acceptance of guidelines which would make sterilization available to all, yet imposed on none.
Primary care research in 1981: the collected abstracts of five medical societies.
Collection of abstracts of 5 medical societies with interests in primary care. The 5 societies are: the Ambulatory Pediatrics Association, the North American Primary Care Research Group, the Society for Adolescent Medicine, the Society for Research and Education in Primary Care Internal Medicine, and the Society for Teachers of Family Medicine. Its purpose is to illustrate the diversity of research underway in primary care disciplines and stimulate discussion on the nature of primary care, a newly defined field of research. The abstracts are organized by topic and each is identified with the organization to which it was submitted. Key words are provided. An index of key words and an index of authors are included.
Source material for issues in population and development in Tanzania.
Bibliography with comments identifying sources of population data. The information is intended for officials involved in planning and policy making, and also for demographers and academics working in the area of population and development in Tanzania. The emphasis is on locally published material but also includes material published outside the country. The concept of population control, and the nature of its relationship to development is subject to various interpretations; this bibliography is conceived within the framework of 3 main premises: 1) population is not just a question of numbers and fertility control; 2) there are obvious and more subtle interrelationships between development and population; 3) that the consideration of every facet of development must be reflected in appropriate strategies. The material is divided into several main sections covering: 1) general and population issues, 2) census data and methodology, 3) mortality, 4) fertility and socioeconomic development, 5) migration, 6) urbanization, 7) rural development, 8) women and development, 9) food and nutrition, 10) family planning and family life, 11) health and ecology, 12) employment, education and manpower planning, and 13) population and the planning process.
[Socio-demographic aspects of the rural household in Iran (author's transl)]
Explores the dynamics of sociodemographic aspects of rural Iranian households and the effects on economic, demographic and social structures of rural areas where there has been rapid development. The rural population is characterized by early and high fertility and rapid population growth. The patrilinear kinship system contributes to the high birth rate, while judicial, economic and social factors limit women's rights to birth control. Rights and duties towards children, and their rights and duties towards their parents, have a strong influence on decisions concerning fertility. (author's modified) (summaries in ENG, FRE, ITA)
Levels and trends of mortality since 1950.
Presents informations on the current situation and trends in mortality for most countries of the world, with the aim of identifying common problems and speical areas of concern as well as the most successful national experience from which lessons can be drawn. The report is organized primarily on a geographic basis and focuses on mortality conditions in developing countries. A shortage of reliable mortality data based on death registration and census enumeration information led to the use of survey data. The advantages of this method for identifying differences in mortality is used effectively. In addition to estimates of levels and trends in mortality each chapter attempts to identify major demographic differentials in mortality. Age and sex patterns of mortality which are generally well defined include rural versus urban residence, educational group of mother (with respect to child mortality), and literacy and occupation of father. With respect to trends in mortality changes in recent years, attempt is made to identify the most reliable information on mortality levels in developing countries. Using the mean annual change in life expectancy at birth as the basic index of mortality, the data, although somewhat incomplete, suggest that regardless of the level of life expectancy attained mortality improvements in developing countries have decelerated in recent years.
Adaptation to pregnancy: some implications for individual and family mental health.
Reviews literature on pregnancy and its impact on postpartum adjustment of family relationships. Implications for problem prevention and for intervention during pregnancy, the developmental aspects of pregnancy, and pregnancy as a normative crisis period are among topics covered. Research suggests that the variables most predictive of postpartum success in parenting are intrapsychic in nature. Whether pregnancy is viewed as a period of normal stress or as a developmental stage whose successful negotiation is necessary to ensure the family's mental health, the consensus is that the overriding psychological objective during pregnancy is the development and acceptance of a coherent sense of self as parent. A knowledge of the developmental tasks of pregnancy and the relationship of marital adjustment to maternal adaptation and acceptance of the infant could be effectively utilized to facilitate the process of successful confrontation of pregnancy and to provide preventive services to expectant parents when indicated.
Primary health care delivery and public health departments: a model and simulation.
Describes development of a computer simulated design of primary care service delivery within a complex organization. Data for the model was obtained by interview, from financial records, patient charts, personnel files, and by questionnaire. The design regards primary health care need as a variable dependent on population characteristics and disease incidence rates, with delivery of care being determined by community needs. By extension of this line of thought, the most appropriate organizational design for the institution must necessarily be based on the specific environment in which it operates. The model and the simulation of primary health care activity in a health department supported the hypothesis that staff assignment is a function of community need for the service, and is also a function of the resources available. Changes in lag time for feedback regarding goal attainment did not produce any changes in performance, and political support was not found to be directly related to staffing of a particular program. An important conclusion to be drawn from this research is that resource administration and allocation requires skills in community diagnosis and internal management which health administrators would do well to include in their education.
Old age security value of children and development: cross-cultural evidence.
Reports on a cross-national study investigating the perceived value of children in providing old age secuity for their parents. The "Value of Children (VOC) Study" a 9-country comparative social psychological study, attempts to find out to what extent this value is attributed to children and what benefits are expected from children. Data was drawn from indepth interviews conducted by personnel highly trained in the field. Women formed a majority of the respondents and an upper age limit of 40 years yielded a generally young sample population. In general, the study uncovered a trend whereby children in developing countries are more valued for their potential contribution to parents' later economic welfare, particularly where alternative social support systems are poor or nonexistent. In more urbanized countries, on the other hand, the psychological and social benefits of children become predominant factors in the decision to become parents. In such countries a very low son/daughter differential in expected old age support, secondary to low overall expectations of support, is also characteristic. Countries in transition from underdeveloped to developed status (e.g. Singapore and Taiwan) show responses between the developed and underdeveloped patterns in emphasizing old age security in planning children, and some of these (e.g. Turkey and Korea) still retain high differentials in expectations of support from sons and daughters. These findings imply a causal link between expectations of children, development, and fertility. In short, the decreasing importance of children for old age security appears to be a key process by which lower fertility levels gradually become the norm.
A report on a 2 day seminar held in January, 1981 is presented. The seminar was held to report findings of the study of the child nutrition program in Kenya. The presentations at the seminar were based on comprehensive reports that are summarized in this monograph with the ensuing discussion. Nutrition programs studied include the Nutrition Field Worker Program, Pre-School Health Program, and the Family Life Training Centers. These programs are described in detail in the introductory portion of the monograph. Preliminary studies of the Kikuyu food habits are described, and the relationship between nutrition and socioeconomic factors is discussed.
A method of imputing length of gestation on birth certificates.
The length of gestation of a newborn infant is regarded to be the length of time between the 1st day of the last normal menstrual period (LMP) and the day of birth. Attempts to get reliable measures of the gestation period, however, have been frustrated by the lack of information on some birth certificates regarding the day, month or year of LMP. Between 12-16% of all records were missing only the day of LMP. This report examines the feasibility of imputing the length of gestation for records on which the day of LMP is missing but for which the month and year are known; 3 different methods are considered. The study was based on a 20% systematic sample of all 1978 live birth certificates for mothers residing in areas reporting the LMP. Demographic and health characteristics indicated that newborns for whom information on LMP was lacking belonged to a relatively high-risk group with lower than average birth weights. This imprecision is estimated to understate the true proportion of premature babies by about 5%. 1 method of imputing gestation period by assuming the 15th day of the month to be the day of LMP, was found to introduce noticeable bias. The random assignment of a day of LMP from 1 to 31 resulted in even greater distortions in period of gestation data. A preferred method, making use of the recorded birth weight and month of gestation and which introduces a maximum imputed error of 3 weeks, is outlined. The National Center for Health Statistics plans to include this imputation procedure in future revisions of its processing operation. Imputation would then be performed independently for white births, black births and births of other races since the relationship between birth weight and gestation is substantially different among these racial groups.
Procedures for reducing the effects of age errors on indirect demographic estimation techniques.
Explores the effects of age errors on demographic estimation in developing countries, and suggests some simple procedures to reduce the effects of such errors on methods of estimation specifically formulated for use in such countries. The 1st part of the report describes techniques of analysis suitable for use when data are classified according to nonstandard age groups to correct for age heaping. Techniques included are comparison of recent with lifetime fertility, estimation of child mortality, estimation of female adult mortality from maternal orphanhood data, and estimation of adult mortality from data on widowhood. Illustrations are provided using data from Colombia and Sri Lanka. The authors recommend wider use of the nonstandard grouping scheme because of its usefulness as an adjustment tool when successful and as a diagnostic mechanism when not. The 2nd part of the report describes and illustrates 2 simple procedures for smoothing and adjusting an age distribution. The 1st procedure reduces the effects of heaping, while the 2nd, comparison with a standard age distribution, is suitable for application to more seriously distorted age distributions. Both techniques are illustrated using data on male age distributions as recorded by the Sri Lanka Fertility Survey.
Female labor participation and female seclusion in rural India: a regional view.
The thesis that the participation of females in agricultural labor affects their freedom to appear in public in India is tested by comparing 1961 Indian census data on the regional pattern of female labor participation with ethnographic accounts of the participation of females in marriage processions in rural India. A brief discussion of female seclusion and segregation indicates the variation in patterns of seclusion, the tendency for low status and seclusion to correlate, and the greater prevalence of strict seclusion in Northern India. A comparison of Indian ecological/agricultural regions with female labor participation rates produced poor results; but a clearer relationship was found between female labor participation rates and the regional pattern of female seclusion. Women do little rural work and do not participate in marriage processions in much of the northern plains area, whereas in much of the south they are active as workers and are also frequently present in marriage processions. Some important exceptions however occur. In general low female labor participation is apparently more strongly related to female seclusion than high female labor participation is to its absence. Seclusion is less strict where women are more important to production.
The division of labor by sex in agriculture: a Peruvian case study.
Explores the relationship between women's participation in familial agricultural labor and the process of agrarian class formation among a group of Andean peasants in the province of Cajamarca, Peru. The study area is characterized by a large independent sector of peasants, most of whom have insufficient land to produce their subsistence requirements, causing them to participate in local and regional labor markets. Several reasons why census data underestimate peasant women's participation in agricultural production are advanced. Survey data from the study area show that a minimum of 21% of the total number of agricultural labor days employed on peasant agricultural units were contributed by women. The data show that there is a significant difference in the agricultural division of labor by sex in different strata of the peasantry, with women from near landless and smallholder households participating more and in more different tasks than women from middle and rich peasant families. The upper strata of the peasantry conform to Boserup's observation that participation of women in the familial agricultural labor force is less where a sizable rural proletariat exists.
A theory of marriage formality: the case of Guatemala.
A theory of marriage formality which regards formality as an indication of commitment and loyalty is explained and tested using multiple regressions on data from the 1974 Rand-INCAP Survey of 6 Guatemalan Ladino communities. It is argued that a trade-off exists between formality and the material benefits a woman receives in return for providing services to a man, similar to the trade-off between monetary returns and job stability found in the labor market. The relations between husbands and wives are described in terms of the concepts of supply, demand, and market equilibrium, and derived hypotheses concerning the factors leading to various combinations of marriage formality and material compensation for wife services are proposed. 2 subsamples of women in the 6 Guatemalan communities are compared for a range of socioeconomic indicators, following which a series of regressions using formal marriage or informal unions as the dependent variable are carried out. The major finding is that a marriage ceremony has tangible consequences in terms of material benefits a woman can obtain through marriage. As predicted by the theory, women with more physical and human assets and men with fewer such assets are more likely to marry formally rather than to live together informally.
The health of the urban black in the South African context.
The introduction of new infectious diseases to the indigenous population, the destruction of the subsistence economy and the introduction of forced or migrant labor were 3 consequences of colonial penetration of South Africa which continue to influence the health of the black population. South African whites today manifest disease patterns typical of industrialized Western countries, and most of the nation's health budget is devoted to curative care of predominantly white diseases. The major health problems of blacks are related to poverty, lack of adequate sanitation and water, over crowded housing, and occupational hazards. Some attention has been given to improvement of environmental conditions and health services for urban black workers, because the modern sector needs permanently urbanized workers able to produce efficiently as well as to reproduce themselves. Health research in Soweto, the major black residential district of Johannesburg, shows that despite poverty, poor housing, and other problems, progress has been made in controlling infant mortality, gross malnutrition, rickets, and very low birth weight. Every family is within reasonable distance of a clinic, but available health resources serving Soweto are insufficient, and many cases go untreated. In comparison to whites, blacks in Soweto are disadvantaged in disease patterns and access to care, but their position is far more favorable than that of rural blacks who make up 2/3 of the population.
The use of unorthodox therapies and marginal practitioners.
The extent of utilization of unorthodox therapies and marginal practitioners by patients with rheumatic disorders is examined. A wide array of folk remedies for arthritis exists, and several aspects of the disease, such as its sporadic flare-ups, make it susceptible to unorthodox remedies, which tend to be palliative, dealing with symptoms instead of causes. All patients being treated at the rheumatology group at the University of Alabama in Birmingham Medical Center for 1 month in late 1979 were interviewed as to their usage of unproven remedies and marginal practitioners. The questionnaire contained standard social and demographic items, questions on the respondents' disease, and questions on health care from orthodox as well as from 10 alternative health care sources and use of 39 specific unorthodox remedies. The 98 respondents reported 366 uses of unorthodox remedies or practices, and 94% had used at least 1. 3 patients had each used 13 different unorthodox remedies or practitioners. Detailed analysis did not show a relationship between age, sex, race, geographic location, duration of disease, or functional category, and the magnitude of use of unorthodox treatments. There was no statistically significant relationship between education or income and amount of usage. The study provides evidence of continued practice of folk medicine among most segments of the American population.
Women and development: what kind of development?
Critically analyzes the concept of development in Nigeria particularly as it impinges on the role of women in the society. If the goal of development is taken to be the achievement of enhanced productivity and the equitable distribution of its social benefit, then the special concerns of women within this process cannot be viewed as isolated problems. Problems of development are in fact problems for the society as a whole, and special women's concerns cannot be isolated and treated by fragmented measures. For example, the cottage industry of gari making traditionally operated by women involves a very labor intensive process and in order to fit in with the concept of development, productivity has to be improved. Any acceptable developmental strategy must tread a very thin line between the necessities of capital improvement and mechanization aimed at greater productivity and consistency in production, and the commitment toward keeping the industry close to the basic community which spawned it and where the benefits can be more equitably distributed. A 2nd example is the situation of medical care delivery in Nigeria. Entrenched patterns of medical organization emphasize curative medicine over preventive measures and put an especially heavy burden upon the woman in her role of bearing and bringing up children and the society as a whole suffers. In order to intelligently assess future policy in development, alternative possibilities in developmental planning must be considered and existing trends analyzed, with care being taken not to underevaluate the contributions and needs of women in the society.
Types of family structure and the status of women.
The traditional Nigerian family form consists of a nuclear family embedded within a kin group; in urban areas this nuclear unit exists in an isolated fashion, while still interacting with kin folks. Also present are various forms of the dyadic family unit, composed of various mother/offspring units or a father/offspring unit. The motivating force behind these units is the continuation of the family tree. In partitioning itself the family group may adhere to any of several structural forms involving patrilinear, matrilinear, or double descent (bilateral) structure. In all these family configurations the wife is assigned secondary status with greater or lesser authority over the household and the joint property of the couple. In more modern societies, women are increasingly combining their domestic roles with career ones. The reverberations of these changes have increasingly affected their domestic authority within the family. The status of the Nigerian women has been generally enhanced, and increase in prestigious wage employment has generally been accompanied by lower fertility levels and the increasing use of paid substitute housewives for domestic chores. Many Nigerian women, however, still adhere to the traditional precept which dictates that she nurture her family, even while contributing to the family's economic well being. Whichever model is followed, it is certain that these changes will have implication for Nigerian social structure and social policy.
International trade, population, and international inequality.
Reprint of a paper presented to the 1st postwar World Population Conference, in 1954 in Rome, addressing the issue of the uses of international trade for overcoming inequalities in world distribution of population and resources. Many underdeveloped countries have failed to derive, either from trade or from international factor movements, the advantages that would have been expected on the basis of prevailing economic theory, and the author is not sanquine about the prospects of lessening the resulting international income inequalities.
This symposium was organized to create an awareness among planners and policy makers of the demographic characteristics and trends in Sierra Leone as revealed by the 1974 census, and thus to provide a basis for consideration of national population problems. The report includes opening remarks on the need for demographic data, the preparations for this and the next census, the quality of the 1974 census, and further population activities planned by the government. Contributed papers deal with the role of population data in social and economic planning; age and sex distribution and its implications for development planning; aspects of the labor force; fertility levels and differentials; mortality; and an account of preparations for the 1974 census and the problems encountered. A series of recommendations closes the report: data users' seminars should precede the 1984 census; assistance for it should be sought from the UNFPA: a nationwide sample survey should be organized to determine the causes of high infant and child mortality in Sierra Leone and MCH programs should be intensified; an intensified population research program should be promoted; adequate funding should be provided for the Central Statistical Office and civil registration systems should be strengthened.
The role of population data in social and economic planning.
Argues that the population factor is fundamental to almost every aspect of social and economic planning. Reliable and up-to-date data are needed for planning and are usually provided through a census supplemented by registration or sample surveys. Data on the age structure of a population is used in determining the age-specific labor participation rates, dependency ratios, and other such measures, while data on internal and international migration is useful in planning for welfare services. The population growth rate is the most important parameter in macroeconomic planning and is used in calculating the value added in subsistence production, total private consumption expenditures, and other quantitites. In many developing countries data on employment is sought after, but serious conceptual and survey problems arise in estimating unemployment and underemployment. Manpower planning, which is usually confined to skilled or trained personnel in developing countries, educational planning, which is important for its contribution to improvement of productive capacity and should be integrated with manpower planning; health planning; and food and nutrition planning all require detailed demographic data on various population traits. Even the most simple planning models require demographic data. The demand for population data is increasing because of the recent shift in emphasis in development planning toward employment generation and improving of living conditions for the most vulnerable.
The general sex ratio in Sierra Leone according to the 1974 census was 98.8, which compares closely to the figure of 98.4 obtained from the 1st census in 1963. The sex ratios are consistent with those of most other African censuses. All but 3 administrative districts recorded deficits of males in 1973. Age distribution was difficult to determine because of the low level of literacy. 2 defects noted in the analysis were a deficit of persons, especially females, in the 10-14 age group, a trait noted in some other African censuses but not adequately explained; and the relatively small number of children reported as under 1 year of age. Because of the defects the reported age distribution was smoothed using modern techniques. 40.8% of the population is aged 14 or under; the median age is 19; the mean age is 23; the dependency ratio is 79.9; the child-woman ratio is 705; and the aged-child ratio is 8.9%. The percentage under 15 has risen in Sierra Leone from 36% in 1963 to 41% in 1974. Implications of the age factor for development planning, including the need to provide employment and education for large numbers of young people and the reduction of per capita output due to the increased proportion of nonproducers, provide support for consideration of a national population policy.
Some aspects of the Sierra Leone labour force as revealed by the 1974 census.
The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of the Sierra Leone labor force as of 1974 are described. The labor force (employed and unemployed) recorded in 1974 was 1,108,000 in a total population of about 2.74 million. Between 1963 and 1974 total labor force increased by about 18% according to the census, but some doubt exists as to the accuracy of the count. The general sex ratio of the labor force was 230 in 1974 compared to 181 in 1963. The crude activity rates in 1963 and 1974 for the whole country and both sexes were 43.0 and 40.5%. The labor force has been growing less rapidly than has total population in Sierra Leone as in many other countries, and the recorded crude activity appears quite low compared to those of other developing countries, but such comparisons should be regarded with caution. A refined activity rate of 63.3% was obtained for the population over age 12 in 1974. The age-specific male activity rates in 1974 were 47.8% for those aged 10-14; 95.9% for those aged 25-29%; and 98.9% for those 55-59. The proportions employed in agriculture is much higher for women than for men. Only 5.6% of the labor force had secondary education and 1.1% had higher educational qualifications in 1974. Wage employment increased from 11.2% in 1963 to 14.6% of the working population in 1974. The percentage distribution of the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors in 1963 was 77.4, 11.6, and 11.0% and in 1974 was 72.8, 8.6, and 18.6% respectively. Open unemployment appears to have increased between 1963 and 1974.
The methodology and major problems encountered in census mapping, the pilot census, questionnaire design, publicity, arrangements for enumeration, and data processing for the 1974 Sierra Leone census are described. Census mapping required extensive revision and updating of available topographical maps and took about 2 years for completion due to shortages of vehicles and problems in determining administrative boundaries and place names, but the resulting maps are regarded as the most complete and up-to-date in the country for survey work. The pilot census in April 1973 was apparently successful in meeting its objectives. Tape recordings of a small sample of interviews showed that enumerator failure to ask correct questions was the main cause of error in interviewing. The major unsatisfactorily resolved problem in drafting the questionnaire was elicting data on employment. Radio and television broadcasts, press coverage, and mobile publicity teams were very effective in publicizing the census and enlisting the support of the population. No serious problems were encountered in the enumeration; local difficulties were handled by field officers on their own initiative. Data processing was seriously hampered by persistent machine problems and manpower shortages. Problems encountered in the 1974 census will be carefully considered in planning for the next census.
Village women of Bangladesh: prospects for change.
Description of how rural women in Bangladesh villages are being integrated into the development process in order to achieve rural development goals. The 1st section describes relevant aspects of the lives of rural women as they perceive them, and focuses on how these women determine their priorities and which pivotal issues limit their options. The 2nd section is a detailed case study of one of the 1st efforts of a national program to integrate women in the development process through the medium of a national institution.
Fertility socialization: the development of fertility attitudes and behavior.
A life course model of the process of fertility socialization is proposed and described. The model is intended as a preliminary sketch of the process. In the model the fertility domain is divided into 3 sets of variables. The primary set includes measures of actual childbearing. The secondary set includes attitudes towards and beliefs about number and timing of children. The focus of the tertiary set is on values and behavior regarding sex, family composition and fertility regulation. Macro and micro level societal variables are emphasized. Using data on mothers and their teenage daughters an initial examination of the model is carried out, providing empirical support for the model.
Sexual decision-making: its development and dynamics.
An analysis of the dynamics of partners' decision making in sexual situations involving young adults. The focus is on three issues: partner selection, gratification and contraception. A model is proposed. 3 developmental stages of relationships are defined. The cyclical, or reciprocal dynamics, of decision making between partners within each developmental stage, are likewise subdivided into 3 components. The model is compared to a play, with the developmental stages analogous to scenes in the play, and the reciprocal dynamics representing the dialogue and other communications between actors.
Measuring the process of fertility decision-making.
A consideration of problems that arise in the measurement of the fertility decision making process. The following questions are posed: At which points should the process be measured? Which variables or constructs should be measured? Which measurement techniques should be used to examine how fertility decisions are made (if indeed they are) and how such decisions influence fertility outcome? Issues surrounding each of the questions are discussed. Specific measurement problems arising from couple responses, discrete variables, measurement error in survey data, and complex processes are discussed. A class of analytic techniques that can resolve most of the problems discussed is described.
Adolescent contraceptive use: the impact of family support systems.
An investigation of the role of family members in influencing adolescents' decisions on contraception and childbearing. A rationale for studying family influences is presented followed by a literature review on the subject. From the literature it is concluded that appropriate communication by parents regarding birth control may enhance a female adolescent's contraceptive behavior. Partners and peers, however, appear to be more influential because such communication more frequently takes place with them. The remainder of the chapter is devoted to an exploratory study of the impact on adolescent contraceptive behavior when family communication is enhanced. Preliminary findings do not show a positive relationship between enhanced family communications and effective contraceptive use.
Motivational bases of childbearing decisions.
Reviews sociological and psychological approaches to the study of fertility and introduces the use of a subjective expected utility decisioning model for investigating motivational bases of childbearing. The method emphasizes measurement of subjective costs and benefits based on husbands' and wives' perceptions of gains and losses associated with childbearing. Variation in subjective costs and benefits with family size is also examined. The method was successful in measuring personal motivations for childbearing during the family building process. At each parity the desire for close affiliation with the child was found to be the major incentive for childbearing. This desire was weighed against material costs and interference with the parents' attainment of educational and occupational objectives.
4 theoretical approaches to the analysis of women's employment and fertility are described: 1) the normative perspective, which emphasizes the pressures of social norms on women to place highest priority on childbearing; 2) allocation of time, an economic perspective in which children are viewed as consumer durables from which parents derive pleasure, with the costs of these durables including foregone earnings of the mother; 3) the sex role, or work commitment perspective, in which a causal relationship between modernity or traditionalism of sex role orientation and both work and fertility is seen; and 4) the life cycle/experiential perspective, a dynamic perspective in which reproductive and career plans vary according to changing objective conditions and experiences of husband and wife. Attempts to explain the work-fertility relationship by a single causal model are criticized, emphasizing the complexity of the relationship. Areas needing further research are identified and discussed. They include the processes by which age at entry into marriage, the quality of women's employment, and economic conditions of the early years of marriage affect work and reproductive decisions.
Measuring the impact of marital discord, dissolution, and remarriage on fertility.
An examination of issues and methodological problems that must be dealt with in measuring the impact of marital discord and dissolution on fertility. General issues considered include the complexity of relationships and the 2 way direction of cause and effect in marital discord and fertility, the variation in relationship with the stage of marriage, and the possibility of sex differentiated effects. The ideal set of data is described and compared to the available data on marital discord and reproduction. Problems that arise in analyzing retrospective survey data are discussed. Approaches to some of the methodological problems described earlier are then discussed and illustrated from the authors' experience.
Pregnancy resolution decisions: a review and appraisal of research.
A literature review on and an assessment of the direction and quality of research on pregnancy resolution decisions of the pregnant female. Theoretical and methodological problems are discussed. Most of the research on this topic has focused on decision outcomes rather than the decisioning process. 3 models or value orientations are described which characterize most of the existing research. They are the deviance model, the feminist mode, and the problem solving model. Methodological shortcomings discussed include sampling problems, lack of clear definition of population, and the cross-sectional (rather than longitudinal) nature of most studies.
Life expectancy and population growth in the Third World.
With the sharp decline in mortality rates in developing countries in this century has come soaring growth rates, leading some to question the wisdom of pressing for stepped up mortality decline in these countries. The author asserts that such concerns are unfounded, since the ultimate effect of mortality decline on population size would be quite small. The reason for this is a relative insensitivity of the population growth rate in developing countries to changes in the death rate--by contrast, future trends in fertility and the large number of young people now reaching childbearing age represent the most important influences on growth rates. 3rd World countries now find themselves in a period of demographic transition not unlike that already experienced by more industrialized countries. The 1st movement comes as a sharp decline in mortality rates, particularly in childhood, as a result of improved health care. In response to this increased survival for children comes a gradual decline in childbearing. The unprecedented rapidity with which lower mortality levels were achieved in developing countries has led to a longer lag time for lowered fertility than was experienced in the developed countries. The 2nd, slower phase of mortality decline, which is now being experienced in many developing countries is accomplished by extending life expectancies for older individuals who presumably have already completed or almost completed their reproductive activities. It is for this reason that further increase in life expectancy from only moderate to more acceptable levels in developing countries will not be counterproductive in the effort to reduce population growth.
Summary report of study undertaken to assess the degree to which the availability of child care affects the participation of women in the work force. The study also examines the quality of child care available, the effect of female work participation on child care patterns, and alternative approaches to child care which might be feasible. Field research was carried out in 6 countries of Latin America and Asia. Available data indicates that the lack of appropriate child care facilities seriously hampers the efforts of low income women to participate productively in the development process. Less than 1% of the families surveyed had access to child care services, yet many expressed a desire for their children to benefit from some form of child care, preferably providing an educational head start. Malnutrition was found among children aged 0-6 years, and was attributed to a lack of proper food resources as well as to poor nutrition habits. Recommendations arising from the research are directed towards the initiation of comprehensive child care policies aimed at meeting the needs of low income mothers and their children. Emphasis is also placed on the development of alternative child care programs and other flexible family support services along with integrated health and nutritional projects aimed at disease control and prevention. Also included in the research report is an annotated bibliography, a country report from each of the 6 countries, and a financial report on both the project and an international conference workshop.
An analysis of the types and costs of drugs imported by 7 multinational pharmaceutical companies in Zaire reveals that 3/4 of the drugs consisted of expensive and nonessential items. The prices of essential drugs (24% of their total imports) were much higher than those of available generic sources (average difference of 300%). The importation of nonessential drugs and the high prices paid for essential drugs exacerbate the scarcity of needed items because of Zaire's limited supply of hard currency. In addition, 2 drug firms imported and promoted the sale of aminopyrone-dipyrone analgesic-antipyretics, drugs now rarely used in western industrialized countries because of potentially fatal complications. Thus, in Zaire, the multinational pharmaceutical industry has an adverse effect on the availability and cost of drugs, as well as on the pattern of drug usage. (author's)
The health of a population and the development of health services in a country at a particular time in history are directly linked to the socioeconomic system. This paper discusses health and health services in the Malay Penninsula during the time that it was a British colony. Economic production under British colonialism, which is basically a capitalist system, is organized primarily for the purpose of realizing profits. The health of the population is in direct conflict with and generally subordinated to this main objective. The pattern of health that emerges reflects this general framework. Moreover, health services under the colonialist system are developed primarily to serve the economic interests of the colonialists. Hence, the structure of health services is biased toward curative medicine and centered mainly in the urban areas. (author's)
The effect of population growth upon the quality of education children receive: a comment.
Malthusian theory asserts that high population growth in poor countries retards economic development. 2 authors, Simon and Pilarski have recently challenged this theory on the basis of their own research; it is their contention that previous studies of population growth and education (1 of the principal modes by which the Malthusian mechanism is assumed to operate) have been flawed. The defect is felt to lie in the assumption of simple rather than partial associations of the 2 variables, education and population growth. On the basis of their tightened specifications, they have found demographic variables to be nonsignificant in explaining educational expenditures per child once other relevant regressors have been introduced. Similarly, little effect of the demographic variable on primary and tertiary school enrollment rates were found, although an effect for secondary school enrollment rates was found. On examination of the theoretical framework and the several explanatory variables, however, the author concludes that a crucial variable which is sure to have a vital bearing on the conclusions reached, has been misspecified in the equations. Further, the author asserts that a more thorough specification of the tests of the hypothesis (i.e. that high population growth retards educational investment) actually provides additional support for the Malthusian conclusion on educational expenditures despite unpromising initial indications.
[Voluntary sterilization in France and in the world]
Gives a brief general history of contraception and sterilization as it evolved in the Western Hemisphere. Deals in depth with sterilization techniques applicable to male and female acceptors; includes surgical, laparoscopic and other methods, also covers vasectomy techniques. The effectiveness and potential side effects of each of these methods, as well as the possibilities for reversal are discussed. Voluntary sterilization, as it occurs throughout the world, is viewed with reference to international organizations involved in making sterilizations available, particularly in developing countries. The role of the physician as counsellor in the decision for or against sterilization, and in the choice of method of sterilization, as well as potential psychological contraindications for sterilization are also discussed. Potential legal and sociocultural problems in the performance of voluntary sterilization are examined, particularly as they relate to French cultural establishment.
Analyzing the determinants of fertility: a suggested approach for data collection.
A set of survey questionnaires intended to stimulate in-depth analyses of the determinants of fertility in developing countries developed by the Determinants of Fertility Survey Committee of POPLAB is presented and explained. The surveys reflect the view that information on a wider range of variables than is customary in household fertility surveys is needed to understand the determinants of fertility. This package includes 5 questionnaires, beginning with a household questionnaire comprising the usual type of household roster and information about household assets. The woman's questionnaire collects fertility and marital histories as well as more information on her background, economic activity, intermediate variables linked directly to recent birth intervals, and children's activities than is usual in household surveys. A husband's questionnaire, community questionnaire, and enterprise questionnaire which measures household income and its sources complete the package. The questionnaires are not considered to be in their final form, and have not yet been tested in the field.
Contraceptive effectiveness in delaying a birth: the Malaysian experience.
This paper uses data from the 1974 Malaysian Fertility and Family Survey to assess the effectiveness of contraception in postponing births by comparing open and closed birth intervals among currently married females aged 15-49 still living in their first marriages at time of interview. The differentials of birth intervals by birth order among contraceptors and noncontraceptors are examined through comparison of mean, standard deviation, and median, and the effectiveness of contraception is further examined through application of a binary linear regression model under the assumption that the birth intervals are normally distributed with same variance but different means among contraceptors and noncontraceptors. To determine the effectiveness of the various types of contraception within the interval, the binary regression model is extended from 1 to 3 binary variables: use of efficient contraceptives, use of inefficient contraceptives, and use of folk contraceptives. It was concluded that the effect of contraception in postponing a live birth is not very strong, but the role of contraception in prolonging the open birth interval appears to be greater. The differential effects of contraception in the last closed interval and the open interval as well as the poor effectiveness of efficient contraception in the last closed interval raise several issues that should receive further study.
Survey implications of major methodological issues in family planning programme evaluation.
Reviews the use of the concept of accessibility in family planning program evaluation literature, concluding that few attempts to operationalize it have reflected its complexity, and that confusion and overlapping exist between accessibility and other concepts such as availability, access, use, etc. Specific questions from the World Fertility Survey which are intended to constitute accessibility indicators are criticized, and an alternative concept of accessibility which comprehends the 3 levels of services, users, and the relationship between them is suggested. The need for further discussion of the theoretical concept of accessibility and procedures for operationalizing it is emphasized. The treatment of contraception particularly in the Mexican fertility survey is then criticized, and a module for measuring contraception which will be included in a National Demographic Survey to be conducted by the Population Council of Mexico is described. The contraception module covers acceptance, use, and effectiveness of contraceptive methods, as well as overlap with periods of breastfeeding. Countries with well developed service statistics systems might not need to obtain such information through a survey.
Theoretical framework for family planning programme evaluation through surveys.
Outlines the characteristics of an evaluation system based on institutional service statistics and household survey data that is intended to be broad enough to encompass the variety of existing programs but specific enough for practical application at a central level within 1 program. On the whole, surveys of the WFS type can satisfy the data requirements for the evaluation framework presented here. Models of elements and actions of the planning process, program design and analysis, and program development and analysis are presented and discussed, followed by an exposition of the evaluation framework. 3 types of evaluation are proposed: evaluation of plans and strategies, of the plan's medium and long term effects on the population, and of program operations. Indicators for evaluation of program operation at the central level are listed and refer to evaluation of the plan's effectiveness, quality of service, use-effectiveness of contraception, and program efficiency. Techniques for a final macro-evaluation are then briefly sketched. 2 lists detail the information needed for the framework that cannot be obtained from the WFS module, and variables included in the WFS module that are not included in the proposed framework.
WFS researches and their policy utilization in Korea.
Reviews fertility and family planning surveys and other surveys related to the family planning program in South Korea as background for a discussion of the policy utilization of the 1974 World Fertility Survey research results. The basic WFS questionnaire was expanded to meet local needs, but the 1st country report was delayed 2 years beyond the expected publication date, and 2 more years passed before a concerted research program was proposed for a more comprehensive and detailed analysis of the data. 8 projects were successfully implemented by researchers from 5 major population-related research institutions, and the results are briefly surveyed in this article. The resulting papers tended to be more concerned with technical methodology and documentation of basic findings than with policy implications. It is difficult to assess exactly how WFS findings were utilized for the design and management of the family planning program, especially since the organizational structure was recently changed. Factors which limited utilization of WFS research findings in Korea included the failure to consult policymakers on their needs during survey design, the time lapse before results were available, and the fact that policy recommendations were too broad and general to have specific applicability.
Accessibility and availability of family planning in Thailand.
A dramatic decline in fertility has occurred in Thailand over the past 10 years, accompanied by a dramatic increase in contraceptive knowledge and use. This study analyzes accessibility and availability of family planning as factors in the fertility decline, using data from the Thailand National Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. The results support the view that availability of family planning services may be more important than level of development in lowering fertility.
A model for the comparative analysis of WFS contraceptive use data.
Preliminary presentation of an operational multilevel model for analysis of socioeconomic differentials in contraceptive use. The model is based on data from the World Fertility Survey. Other comparative analyses of WFS contraceptive use data are reviewed and the implications of this new model are discussed. Because of its intricate micro level specification this model is able to make full use of WFS data. The model accounts for micro level determinants of contraceptive use and for macro variability in the effects of the micro level variables.
The World Fertility Survey collected data on the presence of others during interviews on contraceptive use, providing an opportunity to investigate the assumption that contraceptive behavior is more accurately reported when interviews are conducted in privacy. Within-country and cross-national variation in "Presence of Others" is examined and the effect of this variable on reporting of contraceptive knowledge and use is assessed. The study finds that reported knowledge and use of contraception tends to be significantly lower when others are present during the interview in most WFS countries. However, omission of this variable does not threaten estimates of the effects of other variables of primary interest. Therefore, stronger insistence on privacy during the interviews is not warranted since that might generate bad feelings, causing poorer reporting and refusal to be interviewed.
Family size from the child's point of view.
The mean size of sibship in which children are reared is greater than the mean number of children born to those children's parents' generation. In this paper, family size is considered from the child's point of view, and estimates made of how many siblings (and some other relatives) children have, using data from a survey carried out in Great Britain in the late 1960s. The size of the "family" experienced by children is larger than may at 1st sight appear. For example, women who married in the period 1941-55 on average had 2.2 children, but these women's children grew up, on average, in sibships of 3.5 children; 38% of them grew up in a family with 4 children or more. Moreover, on average these women's children had 6 uncles and aunts and possibly twice that number of 1st cousins. More than 1/2 of the children had at least 1 parent who was brought up in a family with 6 children or more and almost 1 in 5 had at least 1 parent who came from a family with 10 children or more. (author's)
A study of some maternal, experiential, and developmental characteristics of 1037 3-year-old children who were breastfed for varying lengths of time. The results indicated that those children who breastfed longest had advantaged mothers and more developmental experiences. When these differences were controlled by matching breastfed with nonbreastfed children, there were no significant advantages in developmental status found consistently to characterize the breastfed children. It was concluded that alleged "probable" developmental benefits to children from breastfeeding should more properly be considered "possible." (author's)
The effects on life expectancy of elimination of 4 major causes of death are examined. Results are compared under assumptions of pattern of failure elimination and assumptions of underlying cause elimination in a modified multiple decrement life table framework for the segment of the population impacted. The 4 diseases selected for analysis are cancer, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes, major killers among the elderly population. The degree to which life expectancy changes occur within the population from elimination of a given cause is a function of 3 factors: distribution of age at death by cause for persons who die of that cause, the gain in person years lived for those "saved" from dying from that cause which has been eliminated, and the proportion of all deaths which are due to this specific cause which is eliminated. Mortality data from the 1969 US multiple cause mortality tapes from NCHS are analyzed to determine the impact of life expectancy for males and females of both races when 1 of these 4 specific causes of death is eliminated. (author's)
The family today: social highlights on an embattled institution.
Describes the preindustrial family, the development of the modern nuclear family, and modern alternatives, including the choice to remain single, cohabitation, divorce, and desertion. The phenomena and impacts of low fertility, birth control and abortion on the future status of the family are discussed. The future prospects for the modern nuclear family are discussed from pessimistic and optimistic points of view. The pessimistic viewpoint predicts a breakdown of modern society due to the instability of the family institution. 2 optimistic viewpoints are presented. 1, based on a functionalist approach to social phenomena, points out that most functions of the family have been taken over by other institutions. The other is termed the progressive radical viewpoint, and sees the family as a source of oppression of individuals and welcomes its demise. (summaries in ENG, FRE)
Statistical review of historic, current and anticipated trends in population aging. Numbers and proportions of aged persons and extremely aged persons, sex composition of aged populations, urban-rural distribution, and the impact of aging populations on the dependency ratio are described. Analyzes the experience of developed countries and makes comparisons and predictions regarding trends and the future course of events in developing countries.
Challenges for health policy and planning.
Discussion of health policy for aging populations in developed and developing countries. Examines priorities, constraints and basic components of health planning. Characterizes aging populations; describes health and well-being of the elderly of developed countries in terms of health indicators, social indicators, and health resources and their utilization. Reviews basic components of health policy for aging populations (economic support, health manpower and facilities, patterns of medical and nonmedical geriatric care delivery, and health care regulation). Discusses implications of experience in developed countries for developing countries. Stresses that no known system of geriatric care is potimal, but a variety of policies and implementation strategies that incorporate a nation's traditions and values is most likely to succeed. World Health Organization principles of development for "health for all by the year 2000" are recommended as guidelines for all nations.
Sexuality, femininity and fertility control.
Fertility control is not a subject to be treated in isolation; rather it must be examined within the wider context of female sexuality which is male defined and male controlled. If women are to avoid unwanted pregnancy they must actively control their own fertility, yet such control can be especially problematic for young women. In this paper the occurrence of unwanted pregnancy is investigated from the standpoint of sexual politics. It is argued that the organization of efficient contraceptive practice entails a positive view of self as controlling one's sexuality and fertility. Hence there is a basic contradiction characterizing the transition to active sexuality. The politics of heterosexual relations are power politics and, as such, the young woman finds herself in a difficult, sometimes insoluble situation. (author's)
Ethics, effectiveness, and efficiency in population programs.
Connections between ethics and the concepts of effectiveness and efficiency in population programs are explored using examples from a Philippine country study conducted for the Hastings Center. Whether a conflict is seen between ethical concerns and attention to the effectiveness of population programs depends partly upon how the concepts and their interrelationship are defined; alternative definitions and views of the resulting connections are accordingly discussed. The distinction between long and short term effectiveness is then made, and the distinction between effectiveness and efficiency is reiterated based on these considerations. Several competing ethical systems, including the cost-benefit approach which maximizes effectiveness, the voluntarism approach which promotes individual freedom of choice, and the developmental/distributivist approach, which strives for equity in distribution of goods, are then examined and the links between their major precepts and the notions of effectiveness and efficiency are elucidated. It is concluded that whether doing what is effective conflicts with doing what is ethical depends at least on the particular conceptions of ethics one adopts, whether short or long term effectiveness is at stake, the relationship of means to ends in the policy or program, and precisely how the goal of the policy is described.
Integrating population factors into development planning--rationale and approaches.
The failure of many countries to truly integrate population factors into developmental planning can be traced to several factors. Planners generally have not completely appreciated the way in which social, demographic and economic variables should be related to planning, and there has not been much extrapolation of such data relative to demographic and economic conditions. Accurate data and research are necessary, not only for the establishment of norms but also for accurate forecasting of trends in population distribution and development. Even so, developmental plans must be constantly monitored to ensure that they keep abreast of the changing focus of population dynamics. The effect of land resettlement, migration, economic and social change, both within the country and in neighboring nations must be considered integral factors in strategy development. In recent years a number of governmental and other agencies in Malaysia have undertaken analyses of the interrelationships between sectoral development. The aim of such studies has been to formulate models for the evolution of efficacious developmental plans. It is further suggested that institutions of higher learning might be profitably involved in this endeavor.
Population policy and development.
It is now being recognized by most developing nations that population planning must constitute an integral part of socioeconomic development. Macro economic models take into account the reciprocal influence of population variables on economic development, and vice versa. Micro models indicate the dynamics of economic and demographic interactions at the family unit level, where intervention can be directed at modifying demographic behavior toward the achievement of larger social goals. This pervasive probing of the underlying dynamics of economic and demographic process far exceeds the simple family planning emphasis of former years. A real obstacle still exists in the lack of insight into the way in which social, demographic and economic variables should be related to planning. The way to overcome this deficit lies in coordinated multidisciplinary research in this area. Empirical evidence can then be fed back to planners and constantly be monitored for relevance to the changing population situation.
Population, basic needs and the role of government policy in Malaysia.
Reviews the situation of provision of basic needs in Malaysia from temporal and spatial points of view. Government policy has been directed toward establishing a balanced social and economic structure, and has met with some degree of success. Gains have been made in the areas of health, education, nutrition, housing, and utilities. However, there are areas where considerably more improvement is necessary if the whole country must reap the benefits of this thrust. Apart from the standard problems of poverty and regional underdevelopment, the government must also address itself to the imbalances in demographic variables (e.g. age structure and migration) which will be of great consequence in long term and short term planning.
The changing urban hierarchical system in peninsular Malaysia 1957-1970.
Examines the changing urban structure in Malaysia within the context of racial and ethnic regional differentials between the years 1957 and 1970. Specifically, Malaysian urban structure, and its conformity to the set standard based upon the "Rank Size Rule," is studied. Empirical evidence shows the overall urban hierarchical systems in peninsular Malaysia to have increased slightly in terms of deviation from the rank size rule. Indeed, 3 of the largest cities tended to form an "oligarchical dominance" over the urban system of peninsular Malaysia in 1970. Substantial increase in urbanization by Malays (particularly the Chinese) has contributed to the overall emergent "oligarchical dominance" pattern, while the rank size urban hierarchical systems of the Indian urban population has remained relatively stable. Urbanization during 1960-70 has been greatest in Western states, leading to a more uneven hierarchical system for the West Coast region compared to the East Coast. Evidently, the largest urban centers have grown at the expense of smaller urban centers during this period. Further, it is expected that after 1970 the urban heirarchical system of the East Coast region will be greatly accelerated. However, with continued efforts at nation building, a more regionally and racially balanced urban hierarchical system is expected to emerge between 1970-80.
Levels, trends and patterns of urbanization.
Deals with the level, trend and pattern of urbanization in Malaysia, particularly during the period of 1957-70. The rate of urbanization during this period was relatively slow, possibly due to the reclaiming of rural lands formerly held by terrorists. The pattern of urbanization was uneven, with 2 Eastern States showing the greatest gains over a generally deflated national average growth rate. An examination of urban growth by ethnic group showed a sustained predominance of Chinese in urban areas, in spite of a steadily increasing Malay presence. Malays registered their highest growth rate in the largest towns. Urban population change had to be carefully computed so as not to be misled by reclassification of population areas over the time period. Separation of 2 components of urban growth (natural increase, and net migration) allowed an estimate of the role of migration in urban growth. In most states migration did not make a significant contribution to urban growth, accounting for less than 50% of urban increase. Additionally, large variations in migration were evident among the states.
Migration and informal sector employment: the case of peninsular Malaysia.
Exploratory study concerned with the extent of assimilation of internal migrants into the formal employment sector in peninsular Malaysia; compares relative employment of migrants and non migrants in both the formal and informal sectors. Migrants were found to be better represented in the formal employment sector (both as employer and employee) than non migrants. This remained true even after controlling for such variables as sex, age, and educational attainment. It is suggested that an alternative approach to studying this problem is needed, and that an effective one would involve the examination of relationships between migration status and each of the 4 streams of internal migration (i.e. rural-rural, rural-urban, urban-urban, and urban-rural). Secondly, the concept of an "informal sector" and underemployment could be given more concrete characterization by substituting measures of such variables as employment status, industrial sector, and occupational group. Finally, better insight into the more successful employment history of migrants over non migrants might be gained by considering variables other than educational attainment, sex, age and ethnicity.
Examines the recent trend of increased migration of rural Malay women to urban centers. The impact and implications of this trend, particularly with reference to rural-urban migration, is analyzed. Since the early 1970s, Malay women have furnished a cheap labor force for the expanding manufacturing sector, leading to a large scale rural-urban migration stream. The women most likely to resettle have been young, single workers, whose movements have created changes in the trend and structure of the participation of Malay women in the economy, as well as the composition of urban centers. Examined within the context of the Government's objective of restructuring Malaysian society, particularly within the realm of industrialization and urbanization, this movement must not necessarily be viewed as problematic, but can be seen as a positive step in attaining some of the goals envisioned by the Malaysian government.
Female labour force participation in peninsular Malaysia.
Examines some of the main demographic and economic determinants of labor force participation by 3 ethnic groups of Malay women, and attempts to estimate and evaluate the response of female labor supply to changing conditions. This statistical analysis is based on a theoretical model, ascribed to Cain and Mincer, which assumes that leisure and market work form an exhaustive dichotomy in the claim on the time of each adult male. In the case of women, housework is seen as an important alternative and a wife's supply of labor to the market is therefore viewed in the context of her family as well. The data base for this analysis was extracted from a subsample of households enumerated by personal interview over a 10 week period in the Labor Utilization Survey of April/May 1974. Results showed a positive substitution effect of a change in women market wages on labor force participation. A lower opportunity cost of working was found to be accompanied by an increase in the labor supply of married women, and female labor force participation was found to be negatively related to husband's income. Several limitations to these empirically derived results are pointed out, and appropriate means for reducing such potential errors are suggested.
Labour shortages in the rural agricultural sector--a search for explanations and solutions.
Explores the nature and causes of the labor shortage currently being experienced in Malaysia, focusing particularly on shortages in the rural agricultural sector. Rural labor shortages are examined within the context of the mobility situation in the country; the push and pull forces tending to encourage rural-urban migration, and thus to exacerbate the problem, are discussed. The size and organizational structure of the rural agricultural sector, ranging from large estate to small holding, is viewed in terms of the tendency to attract or repel labor. The impact of population redistribution policy on the distribution of the labor force throughout the country is examined, as is the effect of illegal Indonesian immigrants. An overall difficulty in assessing the extent and exact nature of the problem of labor shortages is pointed out--the absence of substantive data regarding labor distribution--is seen to compound the difficulties of assessing the exact dimensions of the labor shortage. Suggestion is made for strategies for handling the labor shortage problem, focussing on considerations such as stimulating lateral labor mobility, generating more incentives for rural labor, introducing more humanistic approaches to mechanization, and increasing coordination among different agencies involved in labor policy.
The family system and sectoral development: the changing role of a basic social unit.
Investigates the role of the traditional family in Malay, and describes its patterns of change as a consequence of sectoral development in the Country. Comment is based on the author's experience with the Malay family system and so is of limited applicability for the country as a whole. However, it is felt that the effects of development on family groups is fairly constant, regardless of ethnicity, and so a cautious extrapolation may be warranted. The basic family unit in Malay culture is the nuclear family which enjoys close kinship ties with the larger family, and at times even passes through a developmental stage of extended family grouping. In Indian and Chinese communities the extended family is more common for various social and cultural reasons. A changing pattern of family formation tending toward deferrment of marriage and childbearing, and more selectivity in choosing a mate has had an impact on demographic development. As a repercussion of the general pattern of development, the family in its turn has undergone change to the very roots of its sociocultural traditions, and can no longer fully function as before.
Determinants of age at first marriage--development linkages re-examined.
Examines the socioeconomic determinants of age at 1st marriage (AFM) among evermarried women of 25 years of age or older, as reported in the 1974 World Fertility Survey in Peninsular Malaysia. 2 components of the variation in AFM, inter- and intra-age fluctuations, are also studied. The changing patterns of AFM over time were found to reflect the inter-age component, while the intra-age component of the variance in AFM could be explained in terms of the socioeconomic background characteristics of the women. Other contributing factors to the inter-age variation of AFM were found to be education and ethnicity. Ethnic differences were found to be responsible for the higher AFM for Chinese with respect to Indians and Malays, even after controlling for the combined effect of age, childhood experience. Education seemed to be the most important contributing factor to the rise in AFM, regardless of race, while urbanization did not appear to have a large or direct effect on AFM. Premarital work experience had only a moderate influence on AFM for the Chinese and Malays, and none at all for the Indians. The duration of premarital work was most influential on AFM among the Chinese, less so among Malays, and weakest among the Indians. It is felt, however, that the model on which these empirical results are based could be further improved by the inclusion of other socioeconomic or demographic variables which might significantly influence female AFM.
The impact of population distribution on regional development.
Identifies some of the relationships between demography and development in Malaysia; attempts to demonstrate their influence on the success of efforts at developing various regions of the country. Malaysia is experiencing a rather uneven pattern of population growth--a more equitable distribution of growth factors could generate better standards of living for many Malaysians. Self sufficiency within each region would go a long way to curbing outward migration and retaining needed manpower force. The establishment of education and vocational training facilities would be a good move in this direction. Hand in hand with this must go realistic opportunities for employment which make use of the available educated youth force. Government hierarchy could profitably pay more attention to the wider base of grass roots communities, providing effective leadership in these areas. The interest and cooperation of the people should be solicited by dissemination of more information relevant to the changes taking place and the moving forces behind them.
Outlines framework for analysis of demographic and socioeconomic impacts of integrating family planning with community development in new land schemes in Malaysia. It is hypothesized that household work patterns and income generating ability which vary with the age and maturity of a housing scheme will help determine the impact of integration of family planning with community development. It is further believed that the nature of the predominant agricultural activity of the area, and the selection of community activities chosen to be integrated with family planning in the scheme will be very influential in determining the success of the venture. Preliminary data tends to support these hypotheses. Further studies are intended to verify these hypotheses, and to further investigate the conditions under which most positive demographic and socioeconomic impacts can be enhanced. It is hoped that this information will be utilized at every level of government for resolving questions of the future directions in the integration of family planning with community development.
New directions in urban-rural migration: the population turnaround in rural America
The papers in this volume focus on the determinants and consequences of the population turnaround in the United States and on the resurgence of population and economic growth in rural America (ANNOTATION)
The European demographic system, 1500-1820
In the final chapter, the rise in demographic growth rates since the late 1700s is discussed. The study is based entirely on published statistical results, and an extensive bibliography is included (ANNOTATION)
The new ethnics: Asian Indians in the United States
This volume includes papers presented at a "conferences on the new immigration organized by the Research Institute on Immigration and Ethnic Studies of the Smithsonian Institution in 1976." (EXCERPT)
1980 census of population: classified index of industries and occupations
This index classifies "the industry and occupation returns of the 1980 decennial census, Current Population Survey, and other demographic surveys conducted by the [U.S.] Census Bureau during the subsequent decade. Approximately 20,000 industry and 29,000 occupation titles are classified under 231 SIC and 503 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes." (EXCERPT)
Documenting the undocumented: data, like aliens, are elusive
Immigrant earning patterns by sex, race, and ethnic groupings
Employment patterns of Southeast Asian refugees
The new Cuban immigrants: their background and prospects
On the whole, the American people consider themselves healthy and, according to the major health indicators, they are becoming healthier all the time. The expectation of life at birth is one and one-half times what it was at the beginning of the century. Many of the leading causes of death have experienced significant declines in rates in the last decade. Nevertheless, the minority populations frequently lag behind the white population with respect to health indicators. Prevention in the health field is being stressed through immunization programs and programs to influence individuals to change their habits. Nutrition is playing a larger role in public life; considerable publicity has been given to dietary goals for promotion of good health. The health service industry has grown rapidly. Health care has expanded and its costs have trebled since 1970. In the 1980s, interest will undoubtedly focus on minority populations and health, on how the economically disadvantaged may better be served, on the effects of an aging population on the health care system, and on how life-styles which undermine health care can be changed. The U. S. Surgeon General has established national health goals for the 1980s that will improve the nation's health if they are achieved. (author's)
Trends in schooling: demography, performance, and organization
Educational levels in the population have grown enormously during the twentieth century, primarily through a process of cohort succession. Educational growth has been concentrated through the spread of grade and high school education, and not through increases in rates of progression from high school to college. Educational growth results from improvements in family socioeconomic standing, shifts in economic incentives, legislative changes facilitating school attendance, and changes in the organization of schools. School enrollment levels since World War II have been heavily influenced by the postwar baby boom and the fertility decline in the 1960s and 1970s. College enrollments will fall significantly in the next few years, but this may be mitigated by increases in the favorability of family circumstances for educational attainment. Socioeconomic differences in educational attainment have been approximately constant through the twentieth century, whereas race differentials in schooling have significantly converged. Performances on standardized aptitude and achievement tests for high school students have declined dramatically since the mid-1960s, a trend due partly to changes in schools' curricula. Elementary schools have consolidated throughout the twentieth century, while secondary schools have been approximately constant in number and institutions of higher education have proliferated. (author's)
The author presents a comparative study of the quality of life in Canada and the United States over the period 1964-1974. In the present volume, he discusses the foundations of social reporting, the basic population structure of the two countries, and mortality, disease, and health care. Statistics are included on population size, age and sex structure, urbanization and density, ethnic and racial groups, births, deaths, natural increase, immigration and naturalization, the labor force and employment, expectation of life, infant mortality, and various causes of death
Religious assortative marriage in the United States
In this book, a revised version of a dissertation written in 1979, the author "discusses and applies to American religious data parametric models of marital selection between groups--or assortative marriage--in pluralistic societies. The models assume that assortative marriage is influenced by such group factors as relative population size; geographic, socioeconomic, and cultural divisions; and conscious selection." In the first two chapters, the relationships between religious assortative marriage and the religious composition of the population are examined, and theories of assortative marriage are critically reviewed. Models are then applied to U.S. survey data...[and] mathematical properties of the general marriage market model are discussed (EXCERPT)
Black migration in America: a social demographic history
The authors trace the history of black migratory patterns and processes in the United States from the time of the Atlantic slave trade to the 1970s. Major causes of migratory movements, characteristics of migrants, the propensity to migrate, the size and direction of migration streams, and the consequences for migrants and the areas of origin and destination are examined for various periods of U.S. history. The transition in the character of black migration from forced to free movement is described. The mass movement of black Americans to northern and western metropolitan areas during the 1950s is studied, and the reversal of this pattern in the early 1970s is discussed
Population redistribution in the United States during the 1970s
Toward a theory of urban-rural migration in the developed world
The demand for public goods as a factor in the nonmetropolitan migration turnaround
The effect of trends in economic structures on population change in rural areas
Migration decision making among nonmetropolitan-bound migrants
Retention of metropolitan-to-nonmetropolitan labor-force migrants
The Ozark-Ouachita Uplands: growth and consequences
Migration and energy developments: implications for rural areas in the Great Plains
Effects of turnaround migration on community structure in Maine
Using administrative records for migration analysis: potential and pitfalls
New strategies for processing large data files in migration research
The changing Middle Eastern city
This book represents the proceedings of a conference on the processes and consequences of urban change in the Middle East, held at the State University of New York at Binghamton (ANNOTATION)
Urbanization and city management in the Middle East
Politics and integration: Turkey
A case study of urbanization in the Middle East: Iran
Urban change and women's roles: an overview and evaluation
A bibliography on urban change in the Middle East
[Infant mortality in the world and in history]
This volume is the result of an initiative taken during the International Year of the Child in 1979. It attempts to present a state-of-the-art survey on research into infant mortality (ANNOTATION)