| 1. Title: Applicability of fertility estimation techniques on Ethiopian data. Author: Mehary TY Source: [Unpublished] 1988. Paper presented at the African Population Conference organizedjointly by the International Union for the Scientific Study ofPopulation (IUSSP), the Union for African Population Studies (UAPS) and the Direction de la Statistique of Senegal at the Novotel and Teranga Hotels, Dakar, Senegal, November 7-12, 1988. 11 p. Abstract: Both the 1st National Sample Survey (NSS1; 1964-1967) and the 2nd National Sample Survey (NSS2; 1968-1971) of Ethiopia were utilized to estimate fertility levels, however the rates seemed to be too low. The techniques of fertility estimation were evaluated for applicability and estimates were then made for the 1981 data of 80% of the rural area of Ethiopia. Fertility level is estimated by crude birth and total fertility rates. The methods of analysis are: 1) The Brass P/F Method which compares recorded rates to retrospective fertility data. This method shows variations in fertility rates depending on the adjustment factors. The adjusted crude birth rate was estimated as 50.3/1000. The TFR ranged from 9.1-7.5 in 1981; 2) The Brass Relational Gompertz Method is based on the mean number of children ever born and those born last year. The TFR estimated the fertility at 6.4 in 1981; 3) The Arriaga-Mortara Method transforms number of children ever born into current fertility estimates through a 9th degree polynomial. The TFR value for fertility in 1981 was 6.2 4) The Arriaga-Brass Method: converts reported period fertility pattern into fertility pattern at the birth of the child. Weighted averages of several age groups are used to estimate fertility. The rural TFR was estimated at 7.9--similar to method 1; 5) Rele's Method estimates fertility levels and determines trends of fertility levels from the child-woman ratio. The TFR=6.9 in 1981; 6) Carrier and Hobcraft Method shows the relationship between the child-adult ratio and the mean reproduction rate, the TFR=6.5 in 1981. A comparison of the 1967, 1970, and 1981 data showed a higher fertility level in 1981. This may be due to improved data quality. The different methods yielded different results, since each makes different assumptions. High fertility is expected in Ethiopia since marriage occurs early and is universal, fertility early and extends to the end of the reproductive period. Ethiopia is rural and encourages proliferation, and the population is relatively illiterate. Those methods which give low values for fertility should be scrutinized more closely. None of the methods should be taken at face value unless other data substantiates the conclusions. Language: English Keywords: ESTIMATION TECHNICS | RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | COMPARATIVE STUDIES | PREGNANCY INTERVALS | FERTILITY RATE | AGE CUMULATIVE FERTILITY RATE | BIRTH INTERVALS | BIRTH RATE | CHILD-WOMAN RATIO | ETHIOPIA | SURVEYS | SURVEY METHODOLOGY | SCORING METHODS | DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEYS | TOTAL FERTILITY RATE | FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS | BRASS TECHNIC | CRITIQUE | Studies | Fertility | Population Dynamics | Demographic Factors | Population | Developing Countries | Africa, Eastern | Africa, Sub Saharan | Africa | Sampling Studies | Demographic Analysis Document Number: 193476 |
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