Title: Global estimates and projections of world populations: Relation between hypothesis, theories and policies.

POPLINE Document Number: 314819

Author(s):

Soliani L

Source citation:

International Journal of Anthropology, 2004 Oct;19(4):297-316.

Abstract:

The United Nations 2002 Revision of the world population projections has radically reviewed the results of the preceding revision. The results obtained show that it is reasonable to dispel the fear of an excessive and perhaps uncontrolled growth of world population, which alarmed public opinion and many international organizations in the last decades. Even in the medium variant, by the year 2050 world population will be less than 9 billion, with zero growth. In view of the fact that fertility will remain below replacement level, after that a process of slow decrease might set in, despite a further sharp increase in survival rates. The objectives of the projections are of an administrative nature: firstly, to adapt global and local policies to the real needs of the population; secondly, to distinguish the trends that are favourable or harmful for the population's greater well-being; thirdly, to govern society in such a way as to achieve the highest possible standard of living, which must be extended to everyone, long-lasting, and therefore compatible with the limits imposed by the environment; the final objective is not to subtract resources from the future generations. (excerpt)

Keywords:

Global
Research Report
Theoretical Studies
Estimation Technics
Models, Theoretical
Population
Population Projection
Population Growth Estimation
Population Theory
Theoretical Effectiveness
Population Policy
Demography
Research Methodology
Social Sciences
Science
Sociocultural Factors
Contraceptive Effectiveness
Contraception
Family Planning
Social Policy
Policy
Political Factors