Title: HIV prevalence and life-time risk of contracting HIV / AIDS.

POPLINE Document Number: 127806

Author(s):

Blacker J
Zaba B

Source citation:

In: The socio-demographic impact of AIDS in Africa. Based on the conference organized by the Committee on AIDS of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) and the University of Natal, Durban, South Africa, 3-6 February 1997. Papers. Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], 1997. :20 p.

Abstract:

HIV prevalence is the most commonly used index for measuring the scale of the HIV epidemic. In Kenya, the National AIDS Control Program estimated that in 1995, 7.5% of the population aged 15 and over were infected with HIV. One could therefore infer that 7.5% of Kenya's population could expect to contract AIDS during the course of their adult lives. The lifetime risk, however, is much greater than the overall prevalence of infection. The relationship between prevalence and lifetime risk is not straightforward, with other factors involved in determining lifetime risk. The authors explore these factors and develop a method of calculating lifetime risk in Third World countries with limited and defective data. Mortality from causes other than AIDS, age at infection, survival time after infection, fertility, and child and adult risks are discussed. Available data and the developed model suggests that while an estimated 7.5% of Kenya's population was infected with HIV as of 1995, almost 33% of children born in Kenya will die of AIDS, while the remainder will die of other causes.

Keywords:

Kenya
Developing Countries
Research Report
HIV Infections
AIDS
Epidemics
Excess Mortality
Prevalence
Risk Factors
Causes of Death
Africa, Eastern
Africa, Sub Saharan
Africa
Viral Diseases
Diseases
Mortality
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Measurement
Research Methodology
Biology