Title: Reconstructing the dynamics of the HIV / AIDS epidemic in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, 1986-1995.

POPLINE Document Number: 127804

Author(s):

Garenne M
Friedberg F
Zanou B

Source citation:

In: The socio-demographic impact of AIDS in Africa. Based on the conference organized by the Committee on AIDS of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) and the University of Natal, Durban, South Africa, 3-6 February 1997. Papers. Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], 1997. :15 p.

Abstract:

A major and continuous increase in mortality of adults aged 15-59 years began in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, in 1986, when the first cases of AIDS were documented, reversing the previous declining trend. That increase was ongoing in 1995. Trends in the mortality of children aged 5-14 also reversed at about the same time, but the increase was less marked and stopped after 1989. This increase in mortality was attributed to HIV/AIDS and to related opportunistic infections. A back calculation model using a 5th degree polynomial and data on the series of registered deaths was developed to reconstruct the dynamics of the epidemic among men, women, and children in the city. The first step was to estimate the number of deaths attributable to HIV/AIDS by analyzing the changing death rates over the period 1973-95. Among men, there was a major peak in incidence in 1987-88, followed by a fast decline. Among women, two peaks of incidence were identified, one in 1985 and the other in 1991. Among older children, most of the infections seemed concentrated in 1984-85.

Keywords:

Cote d'Ivoire
Research Report
Urban Population
HIV Infections
AIDS
Epidemics
Excess Mortality
Developing Countries
Africa, Western
Africa, Sub Saharan
Africa
Population Characteristics
Demographic Factors
Population
Viral Diseases
Diseases
Mortality
Population Dynamics