Title: Towards optimisation of the HIV / AIDS modelling process in South Africa.

POPLINE Document Number: 127793

Author(s):

Doyle P
Muhr T
Steinberg M
Broomberg J

Source citation:

In: The socio-demographic impact of AIDS in Africa. Based on the conference organized by the Committee on AIDS of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) and the University of Natal, Durban, South Africa, 3-6 February 1997. Papers. Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], 1997. :14 p.

Abstract:

South Africa is beginning to feel the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in terms of growing morbidity and mortality, health and social welfare costs, productivity losses, and perceived threats to market growth. South Africa will continue to experience increasing prevalence rates already seen in other African countries and previously predicted by a number of HIV/AIDS modelers. The authors consider whether such models are adequate, whether they have been clearly understood, and whether they are being appropriately used. The authors first review HIV/AIDS modelling techniques, then elaborate upon the currently most widely used and accepted South African model. The Doyle model is described in detail, followed by a discussion of modelling beyond the insurance industry. The modelling process can help efforts designed and implemented to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and in understanding its potential impact upon market opportunities. The Doyle model appears robust enough to provide the demographic output required and is able to be adapted for many applications.

Keywords:

South Africa
Methodological Studies
Models, Theoretical
HIV Infections
AIDS
Excess Mortality
Epidemics
Africa, Southern
Africa, Sub Saharan
Africa
Developing Countries
Research Methodology
Viral Diseases
Diseases
Mortality
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population