Title: Projecting the HIV / AIDS epidemic in southern Africa.

POPLINE Document Number: 127792

Author(s):

Gregson S
Zaba B
Garnet G
Anderson R

Source citation:

In: The socio-demographic impact of AIDS in Africa. Based on the conference organized by the Committee on AIDS of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) and the University of Natal, Durban, South Africa, 3-6 February 1997. Papers. Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], 1997. :35 p.

Abstract:

Data are presented from a search of the US Bureau of the Census's HIV database update for 1996. 295 prevalence estimates were found for the countries of southern Africa, with 50 more estimates found for Kenya. The data are presented for Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Kenya. The search found no national estimates based upon community samples; national-level estimates based upon blood donor samples are available only for Lesotho, South Africa, and Zimbabwe; national-level estimates based upon antenatal samples are available for South Africa and Swaziland; more than 60% of the sources are based upon antenatal estimates of selected clinics which are not representative of the entire country; many studies related only to urban areas; and there has been a shift over time from estimates based upon blood donor samples to antenatal samples. Trends in HIV prevalence in the countries of southern Africa and the percent of HIV deaths from infections after survey are displayed together with a discussion of what is needed to project the future of the epidemic and fitting sigmoid curves to observed prevalence levels. The following are projected for Kenya, Zimbabwe, and South Africa out to 2010: HIV incidence, AIDS incidence, crude death rate, orphan incidence, the proportion of death due to HIV-1 infection, population age structure, and population growth, population size, life expectancy, mean age of working population, and maternal orphanhood with and without HIV-1.

Keywords:

Kenya
Africa, Southern
Literature Review
Research Report
HIV Infections
AIDS
Excess Mortality
Epidemics
Population Projection
Orphans and Vulnerable Children
Developing Countries
Africa, Eastern
Africa, Sub Saharan
Africa
Viral Diseases
Diseases
Mortality
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Estimation Technics
Research Methodology
Youth
Age Factors
Population Characteristics
Family and Household