Title: Evaluation of standard mortality projections for the elderly.

POPLINE Document Number: 252238

Author(s):

van Poppel F
de Beer J

Source citation:

In: Health and mortality among elderly populations, edited by Graziella Caselli and Alan D. Lopez. Oxford, England, Clarendon Press, 1996. :288-312.

Abstract:

"In this chapter we will discuss how the official population projections, made by governmental agencies, have treated mortality at higher ages, and evaluate how successful they have been in making projections of the future number of elderly people. Attention will be restricted to the experiences in developed countries and, in particular, to the situation in European countries....We first give an overview of the different approaches used in projecting mortality. In the next section, we will review the recent population projections made by the statistical agencies in Western countries, giving particular attention to how the highest age-groups are treated in these projections. We will then evaluate the accuracy of a series of population projections for the elderly population made in developed countries during the period 1950-90." (EXCERPT)

Keywords:

Developed Countries
Europe
Population Projection
Mortality
Older Adults
Comparative Studies
Methodological Studies
Estimation Technics
Research Methodology
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Adults
Age Factors
Population Characteristics
Studies