Title: The impact of the demographic transition on government spending.

POPLINE Document Number: 251223

Author(s):

Shoven JB
Topper MD
Wise DA

Source citation:

In: Studies in the economics of aging, edited by David A. Wise. Chicago, Illinois, University of Chicago Press, 1994. :13-37. (NBER Project Report)

Abstract:

"The goal of this research is to determine the impact on government budgets of predicted changes in demographic structure in the United States over the next 90 years....Our basic approach identifies those government programs for which beneficiaries can be distinguished....We calculate the cost to taxpayers of maintaining the 1986 level of age/family-structure-specific payments for each of 22 government programs for which we could identify beneficiaries. We estimate these costs for 1990, and at 20-year intervals from 2000 to 2080. These programs include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, education, and a range of income support, welfare, and work-related government programs....In total, the programs we examine account for about 40 percent of all government expenditure. We find that maintaining the benefit levels for each age-specific family type would require quite dramatic increases in the total funds allocated to these programs." (EXCERPT)

Keywords:

United States
Demographic Aging
Financing, Government
Intergenerational Transfers
Demographic Impact
Population Projection
Social Security
Medical Assistance, Title 19
Education
Social Welfare
Government
Expenditures
Developed Countries
North America
Americas
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Financial Activities
Economic Factors
Microeconomic Factors
Estimation Technics
Research Methodology
Public Assistance
Political Factors