Title: Abortion attitudes, gender, and candidate choice in presidential elections: 1972 to 1992.

POPLINE Document Number: 120699

Author(s):

Wattier MJ
Daynes BW
Tatalovich R

Source citation:

WOMEN AND POLITICS, 1997;17(1):55-72.

Abstract:

The salience of the abortion issue to the outcome of the six US presidential elections from 1972 to 1992 was analyzed through use of data from the National Election Studies. Overall, the results indicated that the electorate has not been choosing between presidential candidates from a single-issue perspective on abortion. The Kelley-Mirer Model, used as the basis for the probit analysis, included measures of party affiliation, net candidate image, incumbent popularity, gender, and attitudes toward abortion. For every election, incumbent popularity was the strongest predictor of voting behavior, followed by political party identification. Abortion attitudes were significant in 1972, when abortion first surfaced as a political issue as a result of the Roe vs Wade ruling, but not again until 1992. To determine whether abortion politics are likely to exert a more decisive impact on future presidential elections, a detailed analysis was conducted for the 1992 election of mobilized voters (who voted in 1992 but not in 1988) and converted voters (who voted for one party in 1988 and another in 1992). Women and pro-choice voters predominated in both these subsets. Most significant in the 1992 election was the conversion of voters to the Democratic Party; however, there is no evidence such conversion was stimulated by the abortion issue alone.

Keywords:

United States
Multivariate Analysis
Government Officials
Abortion
Attitude
Sex Factors
Political Factors
North America
Americas
Developed Countries
Data Analysis
Research Methodology
Administrative Personnel
Organization and Administration
Fertility Control, Postconception
Family Planning
Psychological Factors
Behavior
Population Characteristics
Demographic Factors
Population