Title: Population and conflict.

POPLINE Document Number: 101487

Author(s):

Homer-Dixon T

Source citation:

Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], 1994. 32, [1] p. (Distinguished Lecture Series on Population and Development. International Conference on Population and Development [ICPD '94])

Abstract:

Three nondeterministic models characterizing the interaction between population and conflict were described: 1) differential growth between ethnic or religious groups with a history of antagonism to the other; 2) lateral pressure of population size and growth leading to resource scarcity (Choucri and North); and 3) the impact of population size and growth on scarcity of renewable resources, which increases the size of marginal and impoverished groups (Goldstone). Discussion centered on the third model and specifically on the effects of population growth on cropland, water, forests, and fish in selected illustrated examples. Human-induced environmental change in quantity or quality of a renewable resource has been found to be determined by the product of total population in the region and use per capita of each of a range of technologies; and the vulnerability of the ecosystem to activities. When resources are degraded or depleted, social effects such as migration or increased impoverishment can turn to armed conflict within receiving regions or the same region in a feedback loop. Ideational factors are important: the resource distribution, the social distribution of wealth, the economic and political incentives to consume and produce material goods, family and community structures, perceptions of stability, historically rooted patterns of trade and interaction between societies, coercive power, and metaphysical beliefs. The conditions that exacerbate inequalities are the lack of democracy and equity, the low purchasing power of poor people and the resource undervaluation, and resource overexploitation. Environmental scarcity can be supply induced, demand induced, or structural and interactive and reinforcing. The consequences of these conditions may be the shift of resource distribution in favor of one group of powerful elites or resource capture, or migrations to marginalized land or ecological marginalization. Environmental scarcity can reduce economic productivity and increase financial and political demands on governments and revenues decline. The linkages between scarcity and conflict are mediated by each country's specific physical, political, economic, and ideational features. Recent research has shown that economic crisis must be "severe, persistent, and pervasive enough to erode moral authority." Other ideational features mediate the impact of scarcity on conflict. The options are to use resources more wisely or shift productivity to other resources with technical and social ingenuity.

Keywords:

Global
Models, Theoretical
War
Population Growth
Population Size
Natural Resources
Social Change
Technology
Bangladesh
Senegal
Jordan
Philippines
Case Studies
Theoretical Studies
Population Pressure
Ethnic Groups
Social Adjustment
Environmental Degradation
Resources
Land Supply
Water Supply
Deforestation
Ecology
Changes
Research Methodology
Political Factors
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Environment
Economic Factors
Asia, Southern
Asia
Developing Countries
Africa, Western
Africa, Sub Saharan
Africa
Middle East
Asia, Southeastern
Studies
Carrying Capacity
Cultural Background
Population Characteristics
Social Behavior
Behavior
Organization and Administration