Title: The chaos theory and population planning.

POPLINE Document Number: 101458

Author(s):

LI X
Qu H
Tang Y

Source citation:

CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, 1994;6(3):293-301.

Abstract:

A theoretical model, based on chaos theory, was described for explaining population growth under planned control with and without controls in China. The theoretical application to demographic issues demonstrated that irregular changes in population do not always stem from random changes. Populations can follow cyclic or noncyclic patterns without random changes. Chaos theory provides an alternative to regression theory, which assumes random fluctuations are irregular and noncyclical. Various theories have been offered about the relationship between population size and population growth rates. Verhust suggests that resource limitation and other factors restrict the maximum size of a population, and as population reaches the maximum, the growth rate lowers. The mathematical expression of Casti was used to describe Verhust's concept. Peitgen and Richter postulate that there is an upper limit to population size and population can exceed or go under the ideal upper limit. The mathematical expression of this notion shows that long-term population increase or decrease is determined by the initial value of the ratio of actual size of population to the upper limit of the ideal size and the population growth rate. The application of the Li-Yorke theorem may explain the chaotic locus of fluctuating cycles; the "tent" function may be used to express dynamic noncyclical functions as changes to cycles. The growth rate is the key feature of the long-term pattern. If growth can be limited within 1 and 3, total population will eventually reach a stable value. Population control can adjust the population's natural growth rate in order to reach the planned goal.

Keywords:

China
Theoretical Studies
Population Control
Population Growth
Population Policy
Planning
Models, Theoretical
Cyclic Analysis
Research Methodology
Developing Countries
Asia, Eastern
Asia
Social Policy
Policy
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Organization and Administration