Title: Demographic responses to economic recessions in Latin America since 1990.

POPLINE Document Number: 075504

Author(s):

Palloni A
Tienda M

Source citation:

SOCIOLOGICAL INQUIRY, 1992 Spring;62(2):246-70.

Abstract:

Demographic outcomes of the 1980's recession in Latin America is analyzed. Demographic measures included nuptiality, fertility, and infant mortality. Economic indicators were cumulated increase of gross domestic product, unemployment peak, cumulative rate of change in real wages, debt service ratio, proportion of domestic investment, and the peak of the debt service ratio. A selected review of cyclical fluctuations and demographic responses for preindustrial Europe is provided. This review shows that demographic responses resulted under conditions which need not be universally present. Developing societies may follow other patterns. A heuristic framework is suggested based on one developed by Cornia and developed to include a broader range of social and demographic outcomes and national conditions that mediate the consequences of international conditions. The outcomes of the 1980's recession and the Great Depression of 1929 for Latin America are described. The diversity of recessions and diversity of societies affect the nature of outcomes in the following ways: 1) by the level development and economic infrastructure, 2) the balance of power and political organization of social classes, and 3) the stage of demographic transition. The findings reveal that the response of infant mortality to the economic crisis of 1929 was evident only in 50% of the countries; this pattern also appeared during the 1980's recession. Inferences about fertility are indicated as tenuous, while there was support for an effect on nuptiality from the Great Depression. The associations are in the expected direction, but weak. This result may be due to inadequate time series data, the nature of the relationship, and/or differential responses by social groups. Measuring time lags in short-term economic cycles is problematic particularly in the current recession. Differences in outcomes in preindustrial societies and developing societies may also reflect the interdependence in a world system of developing countries, and the "chronic character" of the 1980's recession.

Keywords:

Latin America
Research Report
Economic Recession
Time Factors
Nuptiality
Fertility
Infant Mortality
Demographic Factors
Economic Factors
Economic Model
Historical Demography
Developing Countries
Americas
Economic Conditions
Macroeconomic Factors
Population Dynamics
Population
Mortality
Models, Theoretical
Research Methodology
Demography
Social Sciences