Title: [Sensitivity of population projections to variations in hypotheses of population variables]

POPLINE Document Number: 052100

Author(s):

Ortiz LP
Giraldelli BW

Source citation:

In: Futuro da populacao Brasileira: projecoes, previsoes e tecnicas, [compiled by] Laura Rodriguez Wong, Ralph Hakkert, Ricardo Araujo Lima. [Belo Horizonte], Brazil, Associacao Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais, 1987. :174-95.

Abstract:

A series of estimations were determined on the basis of population projections conducted by the state of Sao Paulo for 1980/2000, especially for the region of Marilia. The component method correlating the trends of fertility, mortality, and migration was utilized. The 1st hypothesis assumes a constant fertility rate of 3.5 children/woman in 1980, the 2nd average decreasing rate of 2.4 children during 1995/2000, and the 3rd a major drop of the rate to 2.1 children by the end of the century. If mortality stays constant based on 1980 data, life expectancy will reach 63.81 for men and 70.37 for women. If it decreases slowly, life expectancy will increase to 66.99 and 73.92 years, respectively, by the last 5 years of the century. Constant, slowly decreasing, decreasing, and rapidly decreasing migration trends were also utilized. Decreasing mortality, fertility, and emigration yielded a population of 995,000 by 2000, and a drop of the dependent population (<15 and > 65 years of age) from 69-58 for 100 active persons. Constant mortality yielded 991,700, rapidly decreasing fertility yielded 971,300 with the drop of the percentage of youth to 29.8%, and negative constant migration yielded 657,400 with increases of > 65 and < 15 age groups. Fertility and migration variations affected both the volume and age of population, while mortality had no effect.

Keywords:

Brazil
Population Projection
Fertility Rate
Death Rate
Life Expectancy
Migration
Developing Countries
South America, Eastern
South America
Latin America
Americas
Estimation Technics
Research Methodology
Birth Rate
Fertility Measurements
Fertility
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Mortality
Length of Life