POPLINE Document Number: 201900
Author(s):
Andorka R
Source citation:
In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 3. Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 1989. :303-13.
Abstract:
Although most long-term population projections predict a continuing below-replacement level fertility and a slow improvement of mortality, neither the possibility of a new baby boom nor a further important fertility decline can be ruled out. However, the author believes that without population policy interventions cohort fertility will remain below replacement level and that mortality will continue to improve or remain at the present level. The consequences of these trends will be a decline in the numbers of people and the aging of the population in these societies. Governments may try to moderate these population tendencies due to 1) difficulties in financing pension systems, 2) increased demands for manpower in services, and 3) high levels of immigration pressure from developing countries. 3 types of policies are considered: 1) pronatal policies, 2) allowing adequate immigration, and 3) the growth of women and the elderly in the work force. Pronatal policies are basically 2 types: 1) coercive policies which prohibit abortion and cost very little, and 2) incentives which encourage having more children and are expensive. Pronatal social benefits may not increase fertility very much, but they could possibly raise fertility to replacement level. The author favors a combination of a pronatal policy and a liberal immigration policy. In industrialized countries 3 tendencies can be discerned in labor force trends: 1) the participation of the young declines due to increased education, 2) the participation rates of the elderly decline due to the enlarging of pension plans, and 3) the participation rates of adult women increase in most countries. Increased growth in the participation of women might lead to even lower fertility rates. The author recommends non-coercive pronatal policy measures consisting of social benefits, plus a liberal immigration policy, plus policies aimed at the growth of participation rates of women and the elderly.
Keywords:
Developed CountriesIndex page
Population Policy
Population Decrease
Pronatalist Policy
Incentives
Migration Policy
Employment
Older Adults
Recommendations
Women
Social Policy
Policy
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Macroeconomic Factors
Economic Factors
Adults
Age Factors
Population Characteristics