Title: Sex preselection.

POPLINE Document Number: 266702

Author(s):

Bongaarts J
Potter RG

Source citation:

In: Bongaarts J, Potter RG. Fertility, biology, and behavior: an analysis of the proximate determinants. New York, New York, Academic Press, 1983. :201-23. (Studies in population)

Abstract:

Sex preselection represents a potential extension of fertility control. The governing of sex composition and sequencing of children are considered. The issue of number control, with its twin problems of subfertility and excess fertility, has been laid aside and attention reserved for the management of sex composition and attendant implications for birth spacing. A basic distinction has been drawn between compositional and sequential goals. The former entails a desired sex composition of children but with indifference about the order in which that composition is realized. A sequential goal, by stipulating a single preferred order of sons and daughters sets a more challenging target. Respecting compositional goals, in the absence of any sex control technology, there is roughly 50% chance of realizing a single desired son or a single desired daughter or else a balanced son/daughter composition. The probabilities of realizing a compositional goal by luck alone decreases as the number of children increases, and the decrease is all the more rapid as the objective is made more unbalanced. None of the current techniques for raising the probability of a boy when a son is wanted or of a girl when a daughter is wanted seem to be efficient enough to elevate appreciably the probabilities of attaining specified compositional goals. This broad approach of trying to augment probabilities of each pregnancy representing the sex wanted at present leaves the odds not greatly changed. In its favor, as its technique does not require additional pregnancies, it has no adverse consequences for birth spacing. The very different approach of amniocentesis and selective abortion affords a highly efficient means by which to attain compositional and sequential goals, but at the price of a variably larger number of pregnancies. Besides their direct economic, physical, and emotional costs, these additional interrupted pregnancies impair the couple's control over the spacing of their births. A source of control over sex composition is paid for with a loss of control over birth spacing. To limit this adverse consequence by imposing a low ceiling on the number of diagnoses of fetal sex or of selective abortions is to lower the probability of attaining compositional goals. Nor would development of a reliable first trimester diagnosis of fetal sex to replace the current midtrimester ones greatly improve the situation. This substitution would not reduce the additional pregnancies, but rather might slightly enhance their number. It is concluded that widespread control of sex composition will have to wait on the development of more efficient techniques for raising the probabilities that each pregnancy represents the sex preferred--a state of affairs that does not appear to be in the immediate offing.

Keywords:

Sex Preselection
Sex Determination
Birth Order
Family Size
Birth Spacing
Family Planning
Research Report
Summary Report
Infertility
Fertility
Probability
Sons
Sex Ratio
Amniocentesis
Abortion
Pregnancy
Goals
Reproductive Technologies
Reproduction
Genetic Technics
Laboratory Examinations and Diagnoses
Examinations and Diagnoses
Family Relationships
Family Characteristics
Family and Household
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Population
Statistical Studies
Studies
Research Methodology
Sex Distribution
Sex Factors
Population Characteristics
Fertility Control, Postconception
Planning
Organization and Administration