POPLINE Document Number: 017779
Author(s):
Chesnais J
Source citation:
Population, 1982 Nov-Dec;37(6):1,133-58.
Abstract:
This work explores consequences of the decline of fertility to below replacement levels in the developed capitalist countries for 3 planning sectors: education, employment, and housing. The natality decline occurred in stages in different regions: from 1961-73 in North America, from 1964-76 in Northern and Western Europe, and since 1973-74 in Southern Europe and Japan. The total fertility rate fell below replacement level, but large fluctuations occurred in the number of births each year, which will have repercussions throughout the socioeconomic structure and the life cycles of the affected cohorts. Total educational enrollment, especially for the years of compulsory attendance, is determined by the size of cohorts and the rate of attendance. The lower the rate of attendance, the greater the possibility of compensating for declining cohort size by increasing enrollment rates. The size of the 6-11 year cohorts increased through the late 1960s in the overseas Anglo Saxon countries and until 1973-74 in Northern and Western Europe, subsequently declining regularly through 1984 or 1986, when they were smaller than in 1957. These age groups in Japan declined in size throughout the 1960s, grew again until the early 1980s and then renewed their decline. The decline was greatest in 1974-84, with the age groups shrinking by an average of 2.9%/year. In many countries in the 1980s the decline in numbers of school age children will probably be compensated to some extent by earlier school entrance and longer attendance, which may help alleviate youth unemployment. The need for educational facilities and teachers will not decline in proportion to the declining enrollment. The shrinking enrollments may allow an opportunity to redefine the role of the educational system within society. Despite the fact that new entrants into the work force during the next 2 decades have mostly been born, future labor force predictions are hazardous. It appears likely however that especially in countries such as West Germany and Japan, the customary surplus of entrants into the labor force over withdrawals will be replaced by a surplus of withdrawals over new entrants. More women and elderly workers may be attracted and retained in the labor force as a consequence of the reduced number of new entrants. A chronic lack of younger workers may result in reduction of mobility, blocking of career progress, and higher labor costs. In housing, it is likely that capital formation will be reduced, but other factors may compensate to some extent. Although fluctuations in numbers of births will create problems, they may stimulate attention to social change in a time when approaching stationary population is associated with a certain social stagnation.
Keywords:
Developed CountriesIndex page
Economic Development
Population Decrease
Fertility Changes
Housing
Labor Force
Education
Social Change
Stationary Population
Capitalism
Total Fertility Rate
Social Planning
Population
Age Factors
Age Distribution
Schools
Primary Schools
Teachers
Human Resources
Birth Rate
Geographic Factors
Changes
Europe, Western
Europe, Northern
Europe, Southern
North America
Japan
Economic Factors
Population Dynamics
Demographic Factors
Fertility
Residence Characteristics
Population Distribution
Population Size
Political Systems
Fertility Rate
Fertility Measurements
Population Characteristics
Europe
Americas
Asia, Eastern
Asia