Title: The changing employment pattern in the developing world.

POPLINE Document Number: 018107

Source citation:

Horizons, 1983 Sep;2(8):9-10.

Abstract:

The research of Michael Hopkins, carried out under the International Labor Organization (ILO) World Employment Program reaches the conclusion that industry and, especially, services are rapidly outstripping agriculture as the main providers of jobs and major contributors to gross domestic product (GDP) in the developing world. The background data for this analytical survey come from 92 developing countries and cover some 2254 million people or 97% of the developing world's population. The findings show that in the 1960-80 period, agriculture's share of GDP in the 92 countries almost halved, falling from 31-17%. Its share of the labor force, meanwhile, dropped from 72.6-59.1% during the same period. At the same time, industry boosted its GDP share in developing countries from 30-39% and its contingent of the labor force from 13-20%. Industry's great leap forward in the developing countries came in the 1960s, in the heyday of import substitutions, when its share of the GDP soared from 30-38%. Third world industrial expansion slowed considerably during the 1970s when its portion of GDP increased only by 0.5%. For most developing countries, the growth sector over the 1960-80 period has been that of services, which gained momentum in the 1970s and by the end of the decade accounted for about 44% of the developing world's GDP. The services share of the labor force also increased from 14.5-21%. Hopkins warns that the pace of change in the structure of the 3rd world labor force has to be reckoned against a worldwide recession, which has impeded economic growth and increased unemployment, and the persistence of widespread underemployment and poverty in many areas of the developing world. If growth rates continue to lag in the 3rd world, unemployment rates could rise substantially in the next few years. From now until the year 2000, the unemployment situation could worsen unless a growth momentum is restored along with greatly improved income distribution. The unemployment figures alone fail to provide a true picture of the job situation in the third world, for they fail to reflect the acute underemployment and poverty which exist there. Hopkins's extrapolations from available data reveal an increase in underemployment in developing countries (excluding China) from 421 million to 448 million persons over the 1974-82 period.

Keywords:

Developing Countries
Employment Status
Unemployment
Socioeconomic Factors
Economic Development
Development Planning
Changes
Socioeconomic Status
Economic Factors
Employment
Macroeconomic Factors
Social Change